NFL Best Bets: Jets vs Bills Monday Night Showdown
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00:00Now, I don't think it's hyperbole, but it's going to sound rather grandiose when I say
00:05that this might be the most significant and monumental Monday night matchup to end out
00:11a week six late in the history of the NFL, or at least in recent memory, because of all
00:18of the states, everything on the line tonight and everything that has happened in the last
00:23five or six days for the New York Jets with all of the drama either on or off the field
00:30that has followed New York since Aaron Rodgers back in March of a year ago made his intentions
00:37clear that he wanted to play as the quarterback for the New York Jets.
00:43Here it is, DRS, week six, the conclusion of this week in the NFL on a Monday night
00:50at MetLife.
00:51Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, a slight one and a half point underdog, although that line
00:55is working in favor of gangrene hosting the Buffalo Bills, total 40 and a half.
01:03Donnie, our reactions, of course, after Robert Sala was fired last week by New York on Tuesday
01:10morning have varied.
01:11Whose fault is it?
01:12Who calls the shots for this Jets organization?
01:15Was it owner Woody Johnson?
01:16Was it GM Joe Douglas?
01:18Or is it the de facto general manager in Aaron Rodgers, Jeff Ulbrich, named interim
01:23head coach of this Jets team, Nathaniel Hackett demoted, Todd Downing, the new offensive play
01:29caller for the Jets.
01:31Regardless of how you feel about this situation, I think one thing holds serve tonight.
01:36All of the onus is on number eight, the starting quarterback for the Jets.
01:42Of course, his name is Aaron Rodgers.
01:44How do you see it playing out on this Monday night in MetLife?
01:48I'm back in the Jets tonight.
01:49I am.
01:50And I don't really like the way Aaron Rodgers has played, but sometimes there are points
01:53in seasons where you have to make that stand.
01:55And Aaron Rodgers knows he's a good football player, hasn't played good football this season.
01:59That's saying a lot at this point.
02:01But the fact that you're getting rid of Robert Sala as your head coach, and now you're moving
02:04forward and saying, we have to be better as a football team, and it's on my shoulders.
02:09But also keep in mind, styles make fights as well.
02:11I think the Jets defense better than the Buffalo Bills.
02:13James Cook coming in this game, an electric weapon, banged up, questionable for this one.
02:18We'll see if he gives it a run.
02:20So a lot of players that you'd like to lean on for the Buffalo Bills, questionable to
02:23say the least.
02:24Not really the case here if we're lining up with the Jets.
02:26And also keep in mind, the reason I loved the Philadelphia Eagles yesterday to get that
02:30win, I thought they should have won by double digits.
02:32They played well enough to do that because of how bad the Browns were.
02:34But the Browns were coming in, Ben, on three straight road games here.
02:38Look at what's happening tonight with the Buffalo Bills, at the Ravens, at the Texans,
02:41at the Jets.
02:42It's so hard when the NFL lines you up with those three straight road games just to try
02:46to make it through.
02:47And they're like, oh, at this team, we can easily beat the Ravens are really good.
02:51The Texans are really good.
02:52We expected the Jets probably to be really good, but the results just haven't been there.
02:56But if I'm looking man to man, matchup for matchup, home field advantage and getting
03:00points, I'm taking the Jets tonight.
03:03And part of the reason, Donnie, that all of the impetus and pressure rides on a game in
03:08week six is because of the talent the New York Jets have and because of the preseason
03:14expectation that Aaron Rodgers would be the quarterback to, at the very least, lead the
03:19Jets to the postseason for the first time in 14 years, snapping a 13-season playoff
03:25drought by far the longest in the National Football League.
03:29So with that expectation comes the great pressure of tonight.
03:35Because if it's not Robert Sala, it's all on Aaron Rodgers.
03:39The New York Jets got off to a 2-1 start.
03:42They have dropped two games in a row.
03:44The Buffalo Bills won three straight to start the year.
03:47They have also dropped two games in a row.
03:51And of course, DRS, we talk totals now, 40-and-a-half is the number.
03:56It seems limited for this matchup.
03:58If the Jets win what feels like a must-win game tonight, how much offense do we see at
04:04MetLife?
04:05Boy, that's a trick question, right?
04:07You have one quarterback on one side that's fantastic, and Josh Allen.
04:10Aaron Rodgers, when he plays to his capabilities, can be a great quarterback.
04:13We look at that and say, how is it only 40-and-a-half?
04:15Why?
04:16Because it's a division game, and so much is at stake for both of these teams.
04:19You're looking at the Jets needing this victory just to get back to .500.
04:22You're looking at the Buffalo Bills.
04:23If they lose this game, they will be .500.
04:25You need both of these teams to protect the football in each side, but I think the key
04:29indicator is going to be.
04:30I understand Aaron Rodgers, new offensive coordinator coming in, feed Aaron Rodgers.
04:35But really, that ground game has to get cranked up for the New York Jets against the Buffalo
04:39Bills team.
04:40You can run on it, and I think it will.
04:42So the contrarian play, the easy one, like, hey, they're over four.
04:45What are you kidding me?
04:4621-20 gets the cash in this game with these two offenses.
04:48Don't get tricked into that one here.
04:50I think the game play for the Jets is play great defense like they've been playing, and
04:54really get Breece Hall cranked up, along with Braylon Allen.
04:57Not to say to keep Buffalo off the field, but just give that balance to help Aaron Rodgers
05:01on offense.
05:02I think we look to end the game in the high 30s tonight.
05:0464 rushing yards or less for New York in each of their last two losses.
05:10We will compare the quarterbacks and the props for Monday night after we hear from
05:15you to start our number three next on the Early Line.
05:19Welcome to our number three live right here on this Monday on the Early Line on SportsGrid
05:24and all across that Spiz Grizz network.
05:27He is Donny Rightside.
05:28I am Ben Stevens.
05:30One more hour to go on a monumental Monday in sports.
05:35We're going to give you the biggest Monday night football game to end out week six in
05:38the history, the last decade of the National Football League because of the storylines
05:44and the stakes tonight in MetLife, AFC East, Divisional Duel between the Jets and the Bills.
05:51We will break down every single aspect here in this third hour.
05:56A huge Monday night in the greater New York area.
06:00The Yankees start off the ALCS at home in the Bronx hosting the Guardians.
06:05Day baseball out on the West Coast.
06:08It's game two of the NLCS for the other New York club, the Mets taking on the Dodgers.
06:14The Dodgers dominant in game one.
06:16Will the Amazons even the set or will LA take command before we head up to Flushing and
06:22Queens?
06:23What a day we have, DRS.
06:25What a third and final hour in store here on TEL.
06:30Yes, and also for those Mets fans out there, once again, it's a great day for you.
06:33You probably get beat in game number two, then you put your Yankees hats on for game
06:37number one here and become Yankees fans once again.
06:39So had to get that extra dig here.
06:41And by the way, also Mets Jets fans could be down real bad by the end of the night.
06:45Let's hope not here.
06:46Keep the vibes high because we've got good ball games in baseball and fantastic NFL action
06:51tonight.
06:52But come on, man.
06:53Come on, Mets.
06:54What do you got?
06:55Let's see what they have bright and early.
06:571 p.m.
06:58Pacific time out at the Ravine a little bit after seven.
07:01East Coast scheduled for first pitch in the ALCS.
07:05Listen, it is great.
07:07We've got afternoon baseball wherever you reside.
07:09Holiday.
07:10Right into prime time inside Yankee Stadium as well.
07:15Monday night football.
07:17Speaking of Monday night football, DRS again.
07:22The stakes tonight at MetLife are monumental.
07:25The New York Jets sub 500 dismissing and firing Robert Sala less than a week ago.
07:32Jeff Ulbrich is the interim head coach.
07:34Aaron Rodgers runs everything in the organization.
07:38So with great expectation comes the mounting pressure on this Monday.
07:43Can the Jets beat the Bills?
07:45We ask all of you in Fade the Public.
07:55DRS, you know we've been keeping tabs on the Fade the Public poll throughout this season.
08:00When we ask a best bet, how are things playing out?
08:03We did have a component of it on Friday where it was who wins the two decisive game fives
08:10in the LDS.
08:12First in Los Angeles on Friday, then Cleveland on Saturday afternoon.
08:17The public was trying to figure out Padres or Dodgers because the Tigers and Tarek Skubal
08:22were going to win.
08:23That didn't happen.
08:25Public now four and six in their Fade the Public poll.
08:28Best bets.
08:29And Donnie, here's what is at stake tonight for the public.
08:33Either the Bills win or they don't.
08:35That is it.
08:36The public loves them some Buffalo tonight.
08:39What is the best bet for Monday night football at SportsGrid?
08:42The Bills laying a short spread, point and a half on the road in East Rutherford.
08:48Has more than 51% of the votes.
08:51Donnie, you are back in the Jets.
08:53You are Fade the Public.
08:54Tell the people why.
08:56Four and seven, the public are going to move in tonight.
08:58I've never felt more comfortable here after a poll because, you know me, sometimes I'm
09:01with the public, sometimes I'm against them.
09:02But when I just flash this up, because here's what we do, I usually like one of the first
09:06people to vote on this.
09:07The minute it comes out, vote, hit the retweet button.
09:09But don't check it out until we get to this segment.
09:11That's done on purpose.
09:12Of course.
09:13I sort of want to be surprised where the public is actually going.
09:15And I am surprised by this.
09:1751% of the poll here between the Bills, Jets, over and under is going towards the Buffalo
09:21Bills.
09:22But why at this point?
09:23Like, I understand the Bills opened up the season fantastic, loses two straight games,
09:27a must win for the Jets, and also one and a half points, which means you better pick
09:31the winner.
09:3219% coming up here with the New York Jets at this point.
09:35I think the Jets' defense is better.
09:37And yes, I'm expecting one of those bounces.
09:39This isn't a handicap saying, hey, you fire your head coach, you get a bounce back.
09:43I'm telling you, the numbers probably support that at that point.
09:45How many times do we see a coach getting fired and the team rises to the occasion?
09:49And not necessarily like we're just playing for the new coach in the locker room.
09:52Aaron Rodgers is playing for his livelihood in the Jets' media on this Monday night football
09:58game.
09:59If they lose to go to two and four, you can wipe their season away.
10:02And every question that will come his way, like he goes on McAfee Tuesdays, right?
10:06Is he even going to show up on Pat McAfee tomorrow?
10:08If they get beat tonight by the Bills and drop the two and four and all they should
10:12be asking them to say, hey, you got your head coach fired, now it's not working out for
10:15you at this point.
10:16And is he going to say like, look, I'm coming on the show because I'm going to talk for
10:1830 seconds and then totally avoid every question.
10:21He knows that's what's at stake at this point.
10:23The media will dog him.
10:25I expect a good performance.
10:26I don't even need a great performance out of Aaron Rodgers because we'll go back to
10:29last year, Ben, right?
10:30The Jets, give me average quarterback play with that defense, you win football games.
10:33Hey, Aaron Rodgers, give me average quarterback to play with that defense, you'll win this
10:39football game.
10:40I'm taking the Jets.
10:41Give me the points tonight.
10:42They win on Monday Night Football.
10:43And DRS, you can scapegoat Robert Sala.
10:45You can think that Jeff Ulbrich is the better answer.
10:48And maybe we buy into what the Jets PR department shared that they believe in him as the future
10:53head coach and everybody loves him.
10:55So they want to give him all the sample size.
10:58That's why they fired Sala after only five weeks.
11:02Here are the numbers.
11:032002, an NFL team that fires their head coach middle of the season in the immediate game
11:10after 17 and 21 straight up 22 and 16 against the spread.
11:17We're talking 14 cents of separation in the money line.
11:21It's an outright victory.
11:23It does not matter if the Jets lose by one in cover as a one and a half point underdog.
11:29This is an outright win or else.
11:32We saw the numbers for Aaron Rodgers tonight, 213 and a half.
11:37DRS, when you look at the props, he's gone over that in three straight games for the
11:41Jets.
11:42But there is no argument.
11:44Aaron Rodgers has been the issue.
11:46Three interceptions last week against the Vikings.
11:50Without any of those three, they win the game.
11:52Without the pick six early in the opening half, the defense did enough to hold the Vikings
11:57to only 16 points.
11:59They would have won the game without a pick six.
12:02They only allowed one offensive touchdown against Minnesota in London.
12:06Bo Nicks and the Broncos, as you see there, go into MetLife, throw the ball for 60 yards
12:12and win 10 to nine.
12:14The issue hasn't been the defense.
12:16The issue hasn't been Garrett Wilson.
12:18The issue hasn't been Robert Sala, Jeff Ulbricht, or Nathaniel Hackett.
12:21The issue has been Aaron Rodgers.
12:25He needs to change that narrative tonight.
12:27And it's rather simple as well, Donnie.
12:29If Aaron Rodgers does lead the New York Jets to a victory tonight against Buffalo, the
12:33Jets vault in to the top spot in the AFC East.
12:37They would be three and three, as would Buffalo.
12:40But the direct tiebreaker would be in favor of gangrene, and thus first in the AFC East
12:45divisional standings.
12:46Yeah, and that's going to be big to watch it play out, because as expecting Aaron Rodgers
12:50to be, you know, decent tonight, you have all your weapons there.
12:54You are healthy.
12:55The defense is playing well.
12:56Rely on that defense.
12:58Live the fight another day.
12:59Don't air mail a, you know, slant pass over the middle on third and 12 because you're
13:02trying to make a big play.
13:03Punting sometimes is okay.
13:05And also, you're not getting the Buffalo Bills as 3-0 team coming in high and mighty.
13:10They've lost two straight football games, both on the road and another road game.
13:13And as you pointed out, this is a game, if you're the Jets, you have to win.
13:16You don't win this game, there's probably going to be no playoffs, and it's going to
13:18be unbelievably that, you know, pounding that you're going to get from the New York media.
13:22But if you are just looking at a simple equation here, sometimes it's just how you're going
13:25to defend the pass tonight.
13:28The number one pass defense or pass coverage skills on pro football focus is what?
13:31That's the New York Jets.
13:32You know, it's number 26?
13:33Yeah.
13:34That's the Buffalo Bills.
13:35You should have opportunities downfield for the Jets to make big plays.
13:37Why?
13:38Because I think they're going to get that ground game cranked up as well.
13:41You can run on the bills.
13:42You can pass on that secondary.
13:43Aaron Rodgers.
13:44Just be average Aaron Rodgers tonight.
13:47You'll come away with a victory.
13:48DRS of quarterbacks who have sorted at least half of the games of their team for their
13:53team this year.
13:55Aaron Rodgers has the fifth worst completion percentage in the NFL, 61%.
14:00Who's worse than that?
14:02Josh Allen.
14:03The Bills in their two consecutive losses have not looked good.
14:06Of course, when you win games, you score more than the opponent, so it should not be a surprise
14:11to know Buffalo had scored 31 or more in their first three games of the year, 20 or less
14:16in their last two.
14:17Josh Allen, the completion percentage has been abysmal.
14:22Last week, nine of 30.
14:24Nine of 30.
14:25That's possible for 131 yards.
14:29Plenty more of a breakdown on Monday night in MetLife.
14:32What a Monday we have in the world of sports.
14:35So of course, you need that proper perspective.
14:38The Jack of all trades is here at SportsGrid's Tom Vecchio joining us on the early line bright
14:44and early on this Monday.
14:46Vecchio, I won't bury the lead.
14:48You're feeling good after a very profitable Sunday.
14:51Now into Monday.
14:53We need that optimism and positivity to come through.
14:57Monday night football, the Jets and the Bills.
14:59A doubleheader of Monday playoff action in the LCS in MLB with some afternoon baseball
15:07as well.
15:08And of course, some action on the ice, I am sure.
15:12What more could you want for a Monday?
15:14Yeah, this is an awesome day of sports.
15:18This Monday night game, I have to say, has to be one of the tougher games to break down.
15:22There's so many moving parts for both teams.
15:24We've got some early NHL action starting at 1 p.m.
15:26Jack Hughes at plus 125 will get his first goal of the season versus the Utah Hockey
15:30Club.
15:31I'm ready for that.
15:33Will not get Donnie's thoughts on the Utah Hockey Club as a name or franchise.
15:38We'll save that for another day, more than likely Wednesday.
15:41All right, Vecchio, let's look at the Monday night matchup in MetLife.
15:46There is so much at stake, even for a football game in week number six, because of everything
15:53that has happened with the New York Jets and everything that is expected for gangrene this
15:59year.
16:00Of course, they fire Robert Sala this past Tuesday.
16:03Interim head coach Jeff Olbrich takes the reins.
16:06A new offensive play caller for Aaron Rodgers and that offense as well.
16:11So Vecchio, with everything that has happened and everything on the line tonight, how does
16:16that affect your handicap for this game that sees New York as a slight home underdog at
16:22MetLife?
16:23Yeah, like I said, this is an extremely tough game because we are working with a bit of
16:27coach speak.
16:28And Jeff Olbrich said that they want to be committed to the run game, which throws things
16:33for a bit of a loop.
16:34Is he just saying that?
16:35Does he actually mean it?
16:36What kind of usage are we getting out of not just Breeze Hall, but Braylon Allen, who has
16:40been legit good?
16:41And then on the other side for the Bills, Josh Allen started off the year super hot.
16:46He's been kind of some down games over the past two.
16:48James Cook is expected to play, but he's not fully healthy.
16:51We're still waiting on an update on Khalil Shakir.
16:53So between injuries on the Bill side, and I'm just going to say like a giant question
16:57mark when it comes to the Jets offense.
16:59Things are really, really tough.
17:00So we kind of have to read between the lines a little bit when it comes to saying, oh,
17:03they want to be committed to the run game.
17:05What does it actually mean?
17:06You know, how much are we actually talking about that is does does Aaron Rodgers have
17:11full control at the line as he normally does the kind of audible out of place, even if
17:14it is a one play, does he have some kind of control?
17:17So it's a bit of a mystery tonight.
17:18I think there's some interesting angles to attack, though, by the way, 40 and a half
17:23is the total tonight, Tom, in this game.
17:24So if you're a contrarian, better probably trends towards the under.
17:27But again, being a contrarian saying if we get a lot of offense, boy, can this be profitable?
17:31Because the numbers I'm about to talk to you about here, very atypical from what we usually
17:36see Aaron Rodgers over 213 and a half.
17:39Josh Allen, Justin Fields, like one ninety seven and a half is his passing prop to throw
17:44two touchdowns, something these guys do relatively often.
17:47Aaron Rodgers to do that plus one fifty four.
17:50Josh Allen to do that plus one sixty eight.
17:52Look at this bonanza of numbers.
17:54But it's all relative to the game plan, Tom.
17:57Right.
17:58Exactly.
17:59I think, you know, I'm on board with Allen over one ninety seven and a half past.
18:01It's maybe one of my favorite props.
18:02Yeah, they're not.
18:03They may not have clear secure.
18:04We do need final confirmation.
18:06But the offense should be moving.
18:08And I'm also taking into account that if James Cook isn't healthy, we're going to have
18:11two backup running backs in there between Ty Johnson and Ray Davis.
18:14So I do think our legitimate options tonight to see some use it even if James Cook does
18:19play.
18:20So I like Allen.
18:21I think they can move the ball in the air if the Jets do control things on the ground
18:24and they do get out ahead.
18:25The bills are going to have to pass and they're going to Josh Allen's going to be Superman
18:28as he always does.
18:29Yeah.
18:30The two down games are amazing when we're looking at like his recent consistency.
18:34We also see a game where he's a little bit light on the yards versus Miami.
18:37But we have to remember that game script got out of control when the bills got off super
18:40far like super when two got hurt.
18:42Right.
18:43So I really don't want to take that into account when we're evaluating his yards per game.
18:46I want to look at his overall his overall yards per game and obviously taking the context
18:51how he was getting there.
18:52So I do really like Allen tonight.
18:56One ninety seven and a half as DRS mentioned that is under in three of the last four for
19:02Josh Allen including both of the losses and the completion percentage in the last two
19:08games.
19:09Fifty five percent or lower nine of 30 somehow some way against the Houston Texans but maybe
19:17some bounce back.
19:19However the Jets are the best passing defense in all of the NFL.
19:23Let's get back to Aaron Rodgers his best bud Nathaniel Hackett no longer the offensive
19:28play caller.
19:29It is Todd Downing and Becky oh you could make a lot of assessments or takeaways from
19:34what the Jets have decided to do after only five weeks and the dismissal of Robert Sala.
19:40For me the onus is on one guy.
19:43It's Aaron Rodgers.
19:44So what do you expect out of Rodgers.
19:46What it means for the offensive game plan for the New York Jets and how it affects your
19:50handicaps of the props on this Monday night.
19:54I would like to say that Aaron Rodgers comes in and has like a really efficient game where
19:59he may not go over his attempts prop.
20:01He may go under that but he may be going over his completion prop.
20:05Right.
20:06So we're looking at like Aaron Rodgers taking full control of the game.
20:09He's all going at the line.
20:10He's seeing what he wants.
20:11He is being that quarterback that the Jets need him to be and ultimately he's very very
20:15efficient.
20:16I wouldn't be surprised if he does have two passing touchdowns.
20:18I wouldn't be surprised if he gets the under on his yards as well because again we have
20:22to add in a little bit of this coach speak that they want to be committed to the run.
20:25So they're committed to the run getting to the red zone and then maybe Rodgers does flex
20:29the offensive capability and on a black line to get some passing touchdowns.
20:33So I think this game is going to be hopefully a good indication of what we will see from
20:37the Jets moving forward and we can use this as a new starting point and say this is what
20:41their offense will look like for the rest of the year because I have some interest in
20:43Garrett Wilson under I have some interest in going to both Braylon Allen and Brees Hall
20:47overs.
20:48I have some interesting angles to take combined Brees Hall cross plus Braylon Allen combined
20:52yards in the same game parlay like 60 plus each combined.
20:56That is certainly on the table tonight.
20:58Let's take a look at some of those receiving prop options tonight if we're looking at Garrett
21:01Wilson for the New York Jets top man on the totem pole here Tom 60 and a half receiving
21:05yards followed by Lazard Hall Williams and Conklin.
21:08Now the issue is going to be is we do need some information on who is actually going
21:12to be playing for the Buffalo Bills at that wideout spot because right now the only tight
21:16end slash wide receiver listed at Bandle right now Dalton Kincaid 39 and a half Tom.
21:21Let's play this out and say Shakir does not play tonight.
21:23Are there any advantages that you're going to take care of with maybe some cheap numbers
21:26on secondary options for the Buffalo Bills?
21:29Yeah, it would have to start with Dalton Kincaid.
21:31I would like to continue to take shots on Kian Coleman the rookie who has been good
21:35getting downfield a little bit but you know, if the Jets are bringing the pressure, I think
21:38Dalton Kincaid should bring that safety net to Josh Allen again after the game that they
21:43had 9 of 13 last week versus the Texans like they need to establish not just establish
21:48the run but just establish some confidence in the passing game.
21:51Let's get the ball.
21:52Let's move the chains.
21:53Let's pick up a first down and Dalton Kincaid know that last year and that's the role he
21:56should be playing tonight.
21:58You only have two prompts out for the skill players for Buffalo Kincaid and James Cook
22:04who is not fully healthy at this moment Vecchio.
22:08You have shared with us what you believe of the skill position players for New York.
22:12What are the actual bets as you dive through on how you want to attack Brees Hall and perhaps
22:17Garrett Wilson as well?
22:18Yeah, let's go to Brees Hall over 13 and a half carries, you know, he's averaging right
22:23at that number.
22:24He was over in the first three under in the last two.
22:26I think this will be the flipping of the script where he does get over 13 and a half.
22:30They want to establish that run.
22:31They want to go to Garrett Wilson under six and a half playing is that they're not going
22:34to be passing as much.
22:35We do look at Wilson.
22:36He's been under in four of the five games this season.
22:38The last game he's over the hundred and one guard take 13 receptions on 23 targets.
22:42I'm telling you that's not going to happen tonight.
22:44He's not going to have 13 reception.
22:46So I will buy you to at least a little bit of the narrative and take care of Wilson under
22:4916 and a half yards tonight, Tom.
22:52Let's take a look at some Major League Baseball this afternoon.
22:54A doubleheader.
22:55Obviously the Mets and the Dodgers get it started followed by the Guardians and the
22:58Yankees and he looks tonight in this Major League Baseball card.
23:02I would be going to Rodone under strikeouts under five and a half and maybe that's a little
23:06bit of bias for me as the Yankees fan because in theory if he does hit the over the Yankees
23:10would be in a good spot to be winning that game.
23:12So it is sitting at minus 155 or whatever is under five and a half strikeouts.
23:16But we have seen the Guardians offense come to life.
23:19As you guys mentioned the last segment, they were a little bit slow in the first portion
23:21of that series.
23:22They're starting to get a little bit better, you know, getting hit around this, that or
23:24the other thing.
23:25There's a little bit of wind blowing out at Yankee Stadium tonight is a little bit cooler,
23:28but they will be quick to pull Rodone.
23:31They're coming off of plenty of rest.
23:32The bullpen is ready to go.
23:34So ultimately I do like Rodone under five.
23:37SportsGrid's Tom Vecchio on a huge Monday, always delivering whether it's Monday night
23:43football, baseball, doubleheader in October or Jack Hughes tickling the twine for the
23:49first time in 2024.
23:50Vecchio, we'll see you later on SportsGrid or on the Early Line.
23:53Now live right here on this Monday on the Early Line on SportsGrid.
23:57I am Ben Stevens.
23:59He is Donny Rightside.
24:00We set the stage one final time for a monumental Monday to end out week six at MetLife.
24:07It's the Jets and the Bills.
24:10VRS on paper, this game is a great conclusion to any week on Monday night football in primetime
24:17divisional duel, Josh Allen and Buffalo, Aaron Rodgers and New York.
24:21Then you add in the stakes, whoever wins tonight will sit atop the AFC East.
24:27Even the Jets with a victory at three and three would hold the tiebreaker advantage
24:31over Buffalo early.
24:34But then you add in everything that we have seen in the last six days and really the last
24:3920 months since Aaron Rodgers decided he wanted to play for New York.
24:46Robert Sala fired on Tuesday.
24:48Jeff Ulbricht, the interim head coach that Daniel Hackett demoted, Todd Downing promoted
24:54and all of the pressure on Aaron Rodgers.
24:57It comes to a head tonight in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
25:02The Jets remain a slight home underdog.
25:06Will the Jets win with all of the mounting pressure on Aaron Rodgers and gangrene?
25:12Jets win tonight.
25:13I do believe that.
25:14And maybe you'd get a different angle out of me if James Cook was 100% healthy and clear
25:18Shakir was too, then probably the Jets wouldn't have lost their last two games either at that
25:22point.
25:23But they did.
25:24And there's a chance that they're going to lose three straight games.
25:25And one of the hardest scenarios in professional sports, other than like, let's go on the road
25:29on a Thursday night after no practice, and that's really hard to do, is having three
25:32straight road games in the NFL.
25:33You're exhausted at the end of it, and a must-win game for both of these teams, I think, actually
25:38favors the Jets slightly here.
25:40Now, I don't think anything in the room, Ben, actually changes with the offense, per se,
25:44on the Jets.
25:45You know, Nathaniel Hackett's now out there.
25:47Downing's going to call the plays, as you said.
25:48I understand all that.
25:49But you know what does change here when Robert Sala gets fired?
25:52It's Aaron Rodgers' understanding when he's in a moment by himself going like, it's actually
25:56on me now.
25:57I've got to play good football.
25:58And you shouldn't have to recenter yourself as a Hall of Fame quarterback to say, oh,
26:03now it's falling on me.
26:04It's usually always on you.
26:05But I just think now it's, he understands the weight and the magnitude of this game
26:09tonight where it's reflected.
26:11Because let me get something straight here.
26:12If the Jets lose this game 40-39, and Aaron Rodgers throws for 385 yards and five touchdowns,
26:18and they still get beat in this game, then so be it at that point.
26:21It's not his fault.
26:22But the way the defense has played, it's been the offense's issues for why the Jets are
26:27under .500.
26:29He understands that.
26:30I expect a clean game tonight.
26:31I would be surprised if Aaron Rodgers turns the football over, which means, again, Aaron
26:36Rodgers being average should be good enough to win tonight, rely on the running game,
26:41the defense, make those passing plays when they're available, and I think the Jets come
26:44away with a victory.
26:45D.R.S., you already said it.
26:47The Bills are a bottom-10 rushing defense in the National Football League.
26:52It should be a game where the New York Jets can get back to the ground.
26:56With that being said, they have averaged 2.8 yards per carry and 2.6 yards per pop
27:02in their two consecutive losses, 64 yards or less in the last two for the Jets against
27:08the Broncos and the Vikings.
27:11The defense for New York has done enough.
27:14They held Minnesota to 16 offensive points, one offensive touchdown last week in London.
27:21They held the Broncos to 10 offensive points and 60 passing yards out of Bo Nix two weeks
27:27ago on Sunday.
27:29The issue has not been Robert Sala, the coaching staff, or the defense.
27:33The issue has been Aaron Rodgers.
27:35Three interceptions last week against the Vikings.
27:39In fact, D.R.S., in both of the two straight losses for gangrene, 45 pass attempts or more
27:46for Aaron Rodgers.
27:48Not exactly how you would describe a picture-perfect offensive recipe for a 40-year-old quarterback
27:54coming off a torn Achilles.
27:57It is time to get back to the ground game.
27:59I will just say this.
28:01Aaron Rodgers has been sacked eight times in their last two losses, only five times
28:06in the first three games of this year.
28:09There has been some issue with the cadence, perhaps.
28:12We'll see what Aaron Rodgers delivers.
28:15And D.R.S., if you do believe in the Jets, how much do you believe in either Brees Hall
28:21or Braylon Allen tonight?
28:23I do.
28:24I really do, because I think that's going to have to be the center point of your argument
28:27of why the Jets are going to win this game.
28:28Yes, Aaron Rodgers can throw for a lot of yards.
28:30Yes, he can be productive.
28:32We just haven't seen that yet, and I just haven't seen that explosiveness out of Brees
28:35Hall just yet.
28:36Braylon Allen is a quality backup.
28:37Both of those guys should eat tonight.
28:39Some other fun profits, too.
28:40As you see some of those primetime props coming up, yeah, we're expecting Brees Hall to be
28:44that lead dog in the backfield, 60-plus yard rushing should be on the table.
28:47How about some fun ones on their game specials?
28:49Brees Hall to record five rushing yards in each quarter tonight, Ben, plus $140 price
28:54here.
28:55If you think he's going to get a little bit dangerous here and hit that 60-70 number,
28:59how about Brees Hall to record 25-plus rushing yards in each half tonight, plus $155.
29:04So other ways to get involved that don't sound so crazy but can still get you that plus money.
29:08I do think it's going to be paramount that the Jets play good defense, which I wish they
29:13will, which means that running game is going to be in play, Ben, for a full four quarters.
29:17Not we're in the late third quarter and the Buffalo Bills are up 27-13 and we can no longer
29:21run the football anymore.
29:23I do think the catalyst for the game plan is the Jets to return to the roots, get some
29:27explosive plays out of the run game, work off a play action here.
29:30Garrett Wilson should be able to eat.
29:31Conklin over the middle.
29:32Mike Williams might even get involved in the red zone here.
29:34But for me, it is the Jets' ground game.
29:36If Brees Hall is explosive tonight, the Jets are going to be able to win this game.
29:41And Donnie, part of that is also because of the health and the status of some significant
29:45contributors for Buffalo, both defensively, but mainly on the offensive side.
29:50Khalil Shakir, as you heard from Dr. Chow, don't expect him to play tonight.
29:54No props listed.
29:56James Cook slightly banged up, but does have the numbers out.
29:59In a number on Josh Allen, we may never see again, but is indicative of how bad the offense
30:05has looked the last two weeks for Buffalo.
30:08What?
30:09Ninety-seven and a half is the passing yards prop.
30:11Donnie, I think the Jets could win this football game.
30:14I think that's a must bet because it's just a number based on precedent.
30:19You might never see again in the career of Josh Allen.
30:23It's extremely low.
30:24And also, if Cook is not there, then it starts to elevate those anytime rushing touchdown
30:28props here for Josh Allen.
30:30And also, you're just taking a look at if they are down his rushing props themselves
30:34to go over and rush for 45 to 50 yards to sort of take control.
30:37And yes, if I do think they're going to lose that game, you are going to be throwing.
30:40It's not a lot of yards.
30:41He hit 200 here.
30:42And quite frankly, he probably should do that regardless of any defense that he's actually
30:46playing or any other teammates that he has available here.
30:49I think it's going to be a good game.
30:50And also keep in mind, this is the Meadowlands tonight, 15 mile an hour winds are expected
30:54here with much higher sustained winds, maybe 25 miles an hour or higher with the gusts
30:59here.
31:00Keep an eye on that too.