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00:00Finally Donny right side the people have listened to us here at the Spiz Grizz Network our wonderful
00:06producer Joe Frizzo behind the scenes said enough is enough it's Tuesday July 9th it is time for
00:14football as we look forward to the 2024 National Football League campaign it's win total Tuesday.
00:22We have eight Tuesdays until the start of the 2024 National Football League season
00:28on Thursday September 5th eight Tuesdays that we will spin around all eight divisions in the
00:35National Football League that that is good planning on the early line DRS are you excited
00:44we're excited for the NFL to begin underway and quite frankly I thought the NFL we might have
00:48waited till next week where you know sort of a dead time in sports but it's never too early to
00:52get started cooking here in the NFL so let's get after it here can't make this guy happy we don't
00:58talk enough football that he wants to wait a week until we're in the all-star break we'll still have
01:03win total Tuesday next week ahead of the MLB all-star game as well we start in the AFC East
01:11an incredibly compelling division once again as was the case last offseason after the New York Jets
01:17acquired Aaron Rodgers drama follows that guy around and that is the case once again entering
01:232024 but still at the top of the division with the highest win total it's the Buffalo Bills 10
01:29and a half is the number on those bills from Western New York they are the favorites to win the
01:34AFC East division of plus 165 20 cents in front of the New York Jets nine and a half the win total
01:41for gangrene plus 185 the number the Miami Dolphins also a win total of nine and a half
01:48plus 210 the price on the fins to win the AFC East they were slated to do so last year before
01:54the bills rallied down the home stretch of the regular season knocking off Miami in the regular
02:00season finale to win the AFC East crown for a fourth consecutive season then the Patriots
02:06bring up the rear four and a half is the win total for New England after a four in 13 season
02:13a year ago in a new era of course in Foxborough after nearly two and a half decades under Bill
02:19Belichick Gerard Mayo steps up and in what is your assessment first overall Donnie from the AFC East
02:26perspective I think with those numbers they make the most sense here and also some people thinking
02:31that maybe the Buffalo Bills will take a true step back didn't have a great offseason because
02:35they had to restructure contracts and certainly moved on from Stefan Diggs drafted a young rookie
02:39wide receiver he's supposed to take over for one of the better in the past five years wide receivers
02:43in the NFL in Diggs we'll see if that plays out but you take a look at that win total it's 10
02:47and a half it should be there because just having Josh Allen on your team if he's healthy that's
02:52probably good enough for double digit wins he's in that category like oh is Patrick Mahomes still
02:56with the cheers yeah they'll be just fine the next year regardless of who's on their team I do like
03:01the mix of talent they have at the wide receiver position got some speed got some young talent
03:05also still a solid secondary even though they had to move on from a couple guys now if we take a look
03:10at and I know it's hard to do because you don't know exactly how these teams are going to function
03:14next year and look at the schedule it's a pretty tough one here so getting 11 wins next year will
03:19be a very good accomplishment for the Buffalo Bills if you take one at the start of their season
03:24it's against Arizona they should win that but after that you're not getting very many layups
03:28here at the Dolphins the Jaguars at the Ravens at the Texans at the Jets the Titans who I do like
03:34some of the moves that they made at the wide receiver position and should be decent as long
03:37as Leavis is a good quarterback at the Seahawks the Dolphins the Colts the Chiefs the 49ers the
03:42Rams the Lions the Patriots Jets and then Patriots only two layups might be at the end of the season
03:47in late December and early January with the Patriots so you take a look at that 10 and a half
03:51and say yes it's the 17th game schedule Ben they should easily get there but then you look at the
03:56schedule just based upon some of the teams what you thought of them last year that is a tough
04:01tough schedule but again you got Josh Allen there are no excuses he's supposed to win his
04:06fair majority of those games DRS our guy Warren Sharp of course the lead NFL analyst on the sports
04:13grid network with his team at Sharp Football Analytics does a great job each and every off
04:17season of compiling their strength of schedule metric based on projected win total of opponents
04:24for the upcoming season in 2024 they factor in things like rest advantage rest disadvantage all
04:30those things that add up to the weekly odds and spreads and numbers that we see for individual
04:36games in all 18 weeks of an NFL regular season the Buffalo Bills have by far the hardest schedule
04:42of teams out of the AFC East the 10th most difficult around the National Football League
04:48this upcoming season but based on trends Buffalo should be the favorite to win this division even
04:54with a changing cast and crew in western New York the Bills should contend because they have
04:59Josh Allen four consecutive AFC East divisional crowns all four years the Buffalo Bills have won
05:06at least 11 regular season games that is expected to be the case once again are you betting against
05:13that idea in Buffalo I feel you are more optimistic on this Bills organization than maybe some others
05:20after a changing offseason in Buffalo yeah and you know what sometimes you're right about that
05:25because I talked about this many times you take a look at the Buffalo Bills for the past couple
05:29years as that it team in the AFC now is finally their season they're supposed to beat the Kansas
05:34City Chiefs they get them in their own building they can't get it done so oh you know what not
05:38a great offseason you trade your best wide receiver things might be looking on that down
05:41shoot here but I don't believe that sometimes you talk about those it's not it's not a buy low spot
05:46right because they're not hey you have to pick third out of four teams in the division we're
05:49still picking them to be the favorites in the division but I don't know if they have that
05:53lightning bolt on their name anymore where you say to yourself like I have to take the Buffalo Bills
05:57I think they're the best team in the AFC I think some other teams in the public perception let's
06:01just say have passed over the Bills where maybe in the past couple years the Bills were always at
06:06the top of that mountain here so I am higher on the Buffalo Bills than let's just say the majority
06:10of the public here because again if Josh Allen is healthy they're always going to be a good football
06:15team it's just a matter of can they produce in the playoffs when that ante gets up against teams
06:20like the Chiefs that have been there and done that and that's been the story for Buffalo the four
06:25years winning the division never an AFC title only one AFC championship game appearance three
06:31of the last four years bounced by the division around in fact the last three seasons consecutively
06:37three of the four years winning the AFC East bounced by the Kansas City Chiefs the Bills the
06:42fourth best number to win the AFC title overall at plus 750 despite being the favorites to win
06:49the AFC East not all that far behind in either of those categories Aaron Rodgers and the New York
06:56Jets not entering last year I was not overly optimistic on the odds outlook for gang green
07:02with a quarterback near 40 of course Aaron Rodgers injured four offensive snaps into the year
07:08it went into a tailspin quickly for New York the odds optimistic entering 2023 and once again with
07:15Aaron Rodgers recovering from the torn Achilles last year the odds optimistic entering 2024 do you
07:21match the optimism and the expectation from the odds perspective here's what I'll say you take a
07:28look at the New York Jets entering into this year as opposed to last year right yet high expectations
07:32because Aaron Rodgers was coming over a Pro Bowl quarterback you just wanted average Aaron Rodgers
07:37and they might have been able to make a run to deep in the playoffs in the AFC if not a Super
07:41Bowl right so you take a look at how it played out last year and all you kept saying Ben on a
07:45week-to-week basis from the Jets is boy I don't even need all pro quarterback play just give me
07:51a competent quarterback and the Jets probably make the playoffs now we're thinking Aaron Rodgers this
07:56year if he's healthy should at least be a competent quarterback and maybe an all pro quarterback they
08:01should make the playoffs because just look at their defense they got pass rushers they got
08:05dominant linebackers they got great secondary play which includes Saul Skardner and a couple
08:10other guys that can really get after it in the slot you added Mike Williams who might not be
08:14ready to start the season but that's an added weapon for Aaron Rodgers you take a look at Garrett
08:18Wilson Maurice Hall in the backfield all the components are there except what are we getting
08:24out of Aaron Rodgers this year is it going to be too many distractions because if I'm getting
08:28Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers yeah they'll probably win this division if I'm not getting
08:33Green Bay Aaron Rodgers who's more consumed with stuff outside of football than with football
08:37and where he gets injured this could be a calamity of a season this team more than ever
08:43you could see either way if you told me right now Ben the Jets win this division and make a
08:47deep playoff run I would believe you or the Jets to miss the playoffs altogether I would believe
08:52you as well it's a tough team to wrap my head around to be honest we are going to continue
08:57the New York Jets conversation on the other side but I will say this the Jets have a minus 172
09:04number to make the AFC playoffs the New York Jets have the longest active postseason drought
09:10not just in the National Football League but the four major men's North American professional
09:15sports leagues at 13 consecutive years will this year be different find out next what does success
09:22look like for the New York Jets in 2024 if you base it off the odds anything less than contending
09:29for an AFC championship would be seen as a disappointment if you base it off New York
09:35Jets football the last decade plus just getting to the playoffs would be a breath of fresh air
09:41as they have failed to do that 13 consecutive seasons and yet the Jets with Aaron Rodgers
09:47a minus 172 favorite to see the NFL postseason nine and a half the win total for New York here
09:55on win total Tuesday the over has the hefty juice at minus 168 the last time the New York Jets won
10:01double-digit games that was nine years ago in 2015 they didn't even make the playoffs in 2015
10:08the last time the New York Jets saw the postseason that was 13 years ago in 2010 Donnie will the New
10:16York Jets be a playoff team in 2024 just based on talent I would have to say yes because if I'm
10:23saying to myself well Aaron Rodgers is going to get hurt three games into the season well of course
10:27they're not going to make the playoffs you can say that about a lot of franchises with their
10:30superstar quarterback I have to go with the public side here the minus 172 price here I do think
10:35they'll be in the playoffs because that defense is too good and if Aaron Rodgers is healthy that
10:39should be good enough to get close to 10 wins which should be able to put you into the playoffs
10:43here Ben so the New York Jets trying to snap that 13 year postseason drought as I said in the four
10:50major men's professional sports leagues in North America that's the NBA MLB the NHL and of course
10:56the National Football League it is the longest active drought in all four I would agree they
11:02should be able to do that I remain skeptical until I see it I'm not sure I will believe it
11:08there's the off the field issues and the drama that Aaron Rodgers causes despite being the biggest
11:14hypocrite in the world saying we need to erase all of the out of facility distractions and yet
11:20that drama always finds one guy he wears eight and plays for the New York Jets but here's what
11:26you can say about New York fourth easiest schedule according to Warren Sharp and his team entering
11:332024 based on those win total projections and a defense that was top 10 by the end of last year
11:42in terms of their scoring defensive output there is talent but what Aaron Rodgers are we going to
11:47see off the field issues and the drama and distractions aside Donnie and I don't even
11:53think skipping mandatory minicamp will have any impact on the X's and O's or the football output
11:59this upcoming year he's a 40 year old quarterback coming off a torn left Achilles and you mentioned
12:06are we going to get Green Bay Aaron Rodgers up until 2022 if that's the case they're winning 11
12:12games and maybe making a deep playoff run but his worst statistical career year was his final year
12:19in Green Bay 2022 we have not seen Aaron Rodgers play good football now in two years again until I
12:27see it I'm not sure I believe it and I'm not sure I'm betting it no and rightfully so which I can't
12:33condemn you for doing that because what we saw last year was a disaster on the field and off the
12:38field we're just expecting him to be an older similar version to himself and again is that an
12:43MVP level we don't know about that but if we're trying to take a look at next year you're just
12:48saying to yourself give me average play at the quarterback position we're so talented around it
12:53we'll make things happen but it is crazy to think about the Jets not making the playoffs for 13
12:58straight seasons but also keep in mind Ben if you remember all the hype coming around for Aaron
13:03Rodgers you know going into that room for solitary combinement for four days coming out and saying
13:07you know what uh like he's the groundhog I want to be a New York Jet in a way he goes off to being
13:11the Jets they still only had a win total Ben around nine to nine and a half games so even
13:16they thought like wow that's going to make a big difference you see a big difference we okay
13:2010 and a half 11 and a half 12 and a half wins as your total they were still under double digits
13:24last year because of how tough that division and how tough the AFC is at this point we'll see how
13:29that stacks up I'm just a little bit more optimistic based on what I know from Aaron Rodgers
13:34without the injuries in last year they were abysmally quarterback and still won seven
13:39football games he should be worth at least three more wins at this point no you would think so and
13:45again all the offensive pieces around him a healthy Breece Hall you have Garrett Wilson you have Mike
13:52Williams now there is so much to like on the offensive side of the football and that's not
13:57even the defense under Robert Sala who was the only saving grace for gangrene a year ago how
14:03about the Miami Dolphins the only other team to reach the postseason out of the AFC East
14:09a season ago many thought it would be New York it ended up being Miami the Finns won 11 games
14:15a season ago well over their projected win total of this year at nine and a half much like New York
14:20the Dolphins win total nine and a half and the over has the juice Miami also a minus money
14:25odds on favored number to see the AFC postseason will Miami be there once again
14:32I think they will be in the postseason once again you take a look at last year and sort of unfair
14:37how injury ravaged was that defense man coming down the stretch from what we saw and also
14:42wouldn't have been such a fun game to see temperatures around 50 degrees at Arrowhead
14:46Stadium when the Miami Dolphins took on the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs as opposed to minus 50
14:51degrees which you know was really going to hamper that Miami offense they are absolutely loaded the
14:56one thing we wanted to see last year Ben at a two attack on my lower wasn't played a high level
15:01necessarily was can you just be there healthy without getting any concussion issues and he
15:05didn't have those issues now this year I believe I could get open as the third wide receiver if
15:10Waddle and Hill were opposed to me Odell Beckham Jr. is in name only at this point can he contribute
15:16maybe a little bit there he was absolutely insignificant in Baltimore and you saw the
15:21playoffs they didn't even look at him half of that game so just that name recognition seems
15:26kind of nice I don't know what type of impact he's going to have they got speed in the backfield for
15:30days one of the best play callers in football and for a regular season football team barring
15:35disastrous injuries yes they should be right around that 10 win mark here and making the
15:40playoffs once again in 2024 minus 140 the number on Miami to see the postseason I would believe
15:47in that once again defense has to be better Vic Fangio no longer there apparently the players
15:53like the new DC in South Florida a little bit more in terms of the overall outlook even if I
16:00like betting minus 140 for Miami to see the playoffs or maybe better yet over nine and a
16:05half at minus 122 because with how competitive the AFC looks to be if you're not getting the
16:11double digit wins you're probably not going to sniff even the wild card hunt within the AFC
16:17I'm not overly optimistic that I would bet the Finns number 12 to one to win the AFC title I
16:22think they have a certain ceiling as things stand currently in Miami so three teams favor to make
16:30the playoffs within the AFC East in one that might already be looking at the number one overall pick
16:36for 2025 the New England Patriots next live right here on the early line on this win total Tuesday
16:44forecasting the football season to come in 2024 with a focus divisionally on the AFC East three
16:51teams in this division expected and favored to reach the postseason the Bills the divisional
16:57frontrunners Aaron Rodgers in the Jets minus 172 to Otunga-Vailoa and the Dolphins a minus 140
17:04price to see the playoffs for a second straight season and then there's the New England Patriots
17:11four and a half is the number on the pats in the first year under Gerard Mayo four and a half the
17:16win total for New England DRS it is the lowest in all of the National Football League the worst win
17:23total out of all 32 NFL organizations when's the last time we said that about the pats back in the
17:30mid 90s before Bill Belichick took over I mean it's great stuff I mean this is what the rest of
17:36the NFL is absolutely have to love so if you are the New England Patriots this year Robert Kraft
17:40here's what I advise you to do have a giveaway each game for something of a Tom Brady item maybe
17:44it's one of the jerseys sponsored by our local union maybe it's a Tom Brady hat maybe even like
17:49game number three or four surprise and say oh let's tease this Tom Brady's gonna appear at
17:54halftime and just say a few words to the crowd that's all you have to look forward to at this
17:58point right now but at this point if you are the New England Patriots the question marks around are
18:02are you just going to let your young quarterback rip early in the season or are you going to wait
18:08it's unbelievable you're right this is a 17 game season now and New England Patriots not 14 and a
18:14half as it probably would be in Tom Brady's prime but four and a half here and also Ben if we take a
18:20look at that schedule let's just say you don't want to put Drake May out there and you're just
18:23going to go with Jacoby Brissett week number one at the Bengals week two Seattle week three at the
18:29Jets week four at the 49ers week five Miami Dolphins week six Houston Texans week seven at
18:36the Jaguars week eight the Jets you gotta be kidding me with that opening schedule Gerard
18:42Mayo might not even make it a halfway through the season without people already calling for
18:46him to be fired but it's not his fault this is a disaster roster built by Bill Belichick's
18:52inefficiencies over the final couple years without Tom Brady there's not a lot of talent there and
18:57that's four and a half sticks it's hard to win under four games in the NFL but with this actual
19:03schedule and this roster that's probably a reality here for the New England Patriots
19:08second hardest schedule in all of the NFL according to sharp football analytics it is
19:14a gauntlet and it does a rookie quarterback in Drake May no favors quickly here Donnie before
19:20we get deeper into New England's inefficiencies for this roster overall who do you think starts
19:26week number one the veteran Jacoby Brissett or the rookie Drake May for New England abs I mean
19:321,000 percent this team stinks right now it should be Jacoby Brissett let him earn his paycheck and
19:39get his head beat in on a week-to-week basis and give a soft landing late in the season for
19:44Drake May if this team had any talent nobody would argue a kid of Drake May's ilk getting
19:49drafted that high should not be the day one starter and he should be but it doesn't make
19:53any sense if you want to turn this into a Derek Carr or David Carr excuse me scenario from back
19:58in the day with the Houston Texans when he's the number one overall pick and came to a team that
20:02couldn't block he got ruined right away don't ruin your young quarterback ruined Jacoby Brissett
20:08yeah that's a really good point and I think further in that kind of explanation is not only
20:15the disastrously hard schedule to start the year which would make any rookie quarterback have some
20:21very large growing pains but the roster and maybe the lack of talent around the quarterback position
20:27in Foxboro either Jacoby Brissett or Drake May a lot of people look at Bill Belichick the last
20:33few years after Tom Brady left at the end of the 2020 NFL campaign or the end of the 2019 NFL
20:41campaign and they say hey Bill didn't quite have it without Tom despite making the postseason with
20:47Mack Jones a few years ago outside of that though Donnie even more importantly in my estimation
20:54is the footing in Foxboro that Belichick left Gerard Mayo the roster because Bill was also the
21:00head coach and the GM is abysmal draft disaster decisions terrible free agency moves that have
21:08left New England in an awful spot I would not want to be a part of where things stand for the
21:13Patriots this season no and you're right and also Bill Belichick changing his stripes later on
21:18remember all those years how smart the Patriots were they never spent money in the first couple
21:23weeks of free agency why because they had Tom Brady he can make up for all those inefficiencies
21:27the minute Tom Brady left what do they do well let me try to go out and recreate Aaron Hernandez
21:31and Rob Gronkowski at tight end and spend money like a drunken sailor and none of that worked
21:35here he was grasping at straws late in the game here and we'll see and that's a byproduct of what
21:41you're going to get four and a half win total for the Patriots I gotta tell you as a Patriot hater
21:45most people are outside of New England you gotta love to see it everybody else has a five and a
21:51half win total including the Panthers and the over even has the juice in Carolina hour three
21:57comes your way next you're on the early line