• 2 months ago
Transcript
00:00Monday night football in Santa Clara in what a game it is to end out week number
00:06one Monday night to start a season for the New York Jets in year two for Aaron
00:12Rodgers does it bring back some very bad memories from the Monday night opener at
00:17MetLife last year for the New York Jets of course just four offensive snaps for
00:22Aaron Rodgers and then the Achilles injury that would sideline Rodgers for
00:27his first year in New York for the entirety of it they are hoping for
00:32better as Aaron Rodgers returns home to Northern California the San Francisco
00:3649ers three and a half point favorite at home inside of Levi's Stadium with a
00:42total of 43 and a half what a game this is the RS to end out week number one so
00:48many narratives so many storylines we will have some reactions to this of
00:52course on a Tuesday you and the pro football today gang will be live
00:57throughout on NFL in-game live game day reacting to it all what do you expect
01:05for tonight on this Monday in Northern California there's a lot a lot of
01:10question marks how about that to expect the reason I say that is we've watched a
01:14lot of sloppy football in week number one we're also taking a look at a
01:17quarterback that hasn't had a lot of football on the field since getting
01:20injured last September and a lot of high expectations on both sides if
01:25you're looking from a San Francisco perspective love the fact that they
01:28signed their all-world left tackle got him back into camp but he did miss all
01:32camp we'll see if that plays out also you do have Brandon Ike who Kyle
01:36Shannon's already said he's going to be on a pitch count on Monday night it'll
01:39be great if he practiced all the way through wasn't on a pitch count because
01:43he's one of the better wide receivers in the NFL but both of these teams I got to
01:46be honest I do think it comes down to that line it's important it opened up
01:50the family sportsbook in the office isn't once we knew the you know teams
01:53were playing each other six and a half it got as low as three and a half which
01:57still currently sits at the fan blue sportsbook bounces four and a half three
02:00and a half fours we'll see what it gets to a game time a lot of other outlets
02:04right now showing at four but Fandul keeping that at three and a half a total
02:07of forty three and a half it seems like these numbers are right because if you
02:11say they're two electric offenses once they can get going because you take a
02:15look at the Jets offense this year from last year well you insert Aaron Rodgers
02:18back in it you add another capable wide receiver your tailback should be even
02:23better improved coming off an injury from the year previous and then you take
02:26a look at San Francisco and say to yourself yeah well that offense is built
02:29ready made to go Kyle Shanahan everybody's in position and that forty
02:33three and a half sticks out why because those defenses are so so good on both
02:36sides but I want to buck that trend I think we get more offense than that we
02:40talk about 55 60 points no but I would be very surprised Ben if both of these
02:46football teams don't reach at least 20 points which again puts you in that
02:50ballpark of 43 and a half I'm hoping we get a clean performance out of both
02:55sides but I got to tell you those points are talking to me tonight with the New
02:59York Jets I bought into the Jets about three four weeks ago realizing I don't
03:04know how talented the Buffalo Bills are going to be quite frank they look bad
03:07yesterday thank goodness they got bailed out with a terrible against a terrible
03:10Arizona team and picked up that victory the New England Patriots yes they won a
03:14football game and sort of the Miami Dolphins but I still do think the New
03:17York Jets are the best team in the AFC East but this game is gonna go a long
03:21way to letting me know that almost feels like a referendum for the Jets week
03:25number one on the road the Cardinals did cover as a six and a half point
03:30underdog in Western New York against the Bills with Josh Allen leading Buffalo
03:35back to passing touchdowns to rushing scores but an injury to his hand that we
03:40discuss with Dr. David Chow in our third hour but even before the opener the New
03:45York Jets had moved to the favorites in the AFC East New York has not made it to
03:51the postseason since 2010 it's a 13-year playoff drought of course you win your
03:57division you earn a playoff berth and you will host a playoff game those are
04:03the realistic expectations for this Jets team that frankly if they come up short
04:08of that this season much like last can see considered a failure and a
04:13disappointment with the investment in Aaron Rodgers first just some trend
04:17things to note three and a half in favor of the Niners DRS is right when this
04:22line opened up in the summer months five and a half six in spots it was four and
04:27a half last week it is now settled back to three in a hook in favor of the
04:3149ers San Francisco played in 20 football games last year including
04:35Super Bowl 58 against Kansas City in Las Vegas the San Francisco 49ers were
04:41booked as a favorite in all 20 games but just 9 in 11 against the spread I am
04:47intrigued Donnie to see the New York Jets now having the third best price in
04:50the AFC the favorites to win the AFC East division how often they will be
04:55booked as a dog this year of course without Aaron Rodgers they were an
05:00underdog 14 times out of 17 games a season ago six and eight against the
05:06number five of those six covers though an outright victory this Jets team even
05:11without Aaron Rodgers and some of the worst quarterbacking play that you will
05:15ever see found its way to seven wins because of all the talent on the roster
05:20outside of the quarterback spot this might be one of the few times maybe one
05:25two three times this year in total the gangrene is booked as an underdog and
05:30it's north of a field goal and by the way if you take away Hassan Redick who
05:35hasn't showed up for the Jets who knows when that charade is actually going to
05:38end at this point we're not getting any details from either side as opposed to
05:41unless you show up we're not paying you the reason I want to bring that up is
05:44everybody for the Jets practice all the way through training camp here you look
05:48at these San Francisco 49ers that didn't happen Christian McCaffrey maybe the best
05:52pound-for-pound running back to the NFL I think we could agree upon missing
05:56three four weeks of practice now coming back we'll see if he's on a pitch count
05:59in this game we already been told Brandon I on a pitch count and yes you
06:03know Trent Williams for as good as he is hasn't practiced all all season long and
06:08basically inserted back on game week as a 36 year old left tackle am I expecting
06:12him to be bad not necessarily but you might be a little bit more winded than
06:15you actually think so more question marks are showing up in the skins I said
06:19already have a lot to answer I just wanted if I can get a Jets victory over
06:24San Francisco in game number one boy that hype train is gonna be unleashed
06:28because you never got a chance to say it it's a Jets fan coming into last
06:32against Buffalo night number one I mean the vibes could have been a higher and
06:35it ended minutes into that game and now you get to see Aaron Rodgers hopefully
06:40healthy and playing now granted you saw Kirk Cousins in that game how did he
06:44look coming back from an Achilles injury you know Aaron Rodgers is doing the same
06:48thing and hasn't had a lot of game film gear to put out in the preseason and
06:52such so yes question marks Ben questions all around but the answers they're
06:57coming tonight Aaron Rodgers has played for NFL snaps in the last two calendar
07:04years he's 40 years old trying to return from a torn left Achilles all the voodoo
07:10magic in the world makes it still a difficult test for Aaron Rodgers in his
07:15first NFL game action did not play in the preseason what will Rodgers do
07:19tonight in San Francisco Aaron Rodgers is 40 years old Aaron Rodgers has played
07:25just for NFL snaps in the last two calendar years since the end of the 2022
07:31NFL season what does he look like tonight in his season debut in 2024 if
07:37Aaron Rodgers is mediocre in my estimation the Jets are a playoff team
07:42maybe even the champions of the AFC East getting back into the NFL postseason for
07:48the first time since 2010 but what version at 40 off a torn Achilles of
07:54Aaron Rodgers are we going to see this year and on this Monday night in Santa
07:59Clara is it the guy that won two consecutive NFL MVP awards for Green Bay
08:04in 2020 and 2021 or was it a guy coming off the worst full year of his NFL
08:09career in 2022 235 and a half is the passing yards prop tonight for Aaron
08:15Rodgers really hard to judge DRS I would say what he is going to look like
08:19tonight what the numbers and the statistical output output is going to be
08:23for number 12 in green perhaps white tonight number eight I guess he wears
08:28now in New York it's been a long time but in the final eight games of 2022
08:33Aaron Rodgers was under this passing yards prop in seven of eight it is in
08:40terms of his NFL career in full seasons where he played at least 15 games 2022
08:46was the least amount of passing yards we had seen for Aaron Rodgers in a full
08:50season since his first year as a starter in Green Bay in 08 what version of Aaron
08:57Rodgers will be on display tonight against this 49ers defense hopefully
09:01it's a good one and again that's it the fun part about this Ben is we we
09:04haven't seen it like it hasn't like hey you know what he got a lot of snaps in
09:07games 1 2 & 3 of the preseason he looks like he's back similar to what I talk
09:11about like let you say younger quarterback and CJ Stroud getting out
09:14that man he just looks legit I can't wait to see him in week number one now I
09:18can't wait to see Aaron Rodgers in week number one but again I don't know what
09:21version we're getting this isn't a 24 year old coming off an Achilles this is
09:25a guy that's sort of at the ending part of his career with maybe two to three
09:28years left on the edge of his prime and coming off as you said basically two
09:33football seasons without playing any football as I'm supposed to say oh yeah
09:36that's the Aaron Rodgers I remember from winning a Super Bowl against the
09:39Steelers like around 2010 at this point we're not gonna get that Aaron Rodgers
09:43or that mobile even of Aaron Rodgers but the worst-case scenario may be played
09:47out yesterday and you can use that moving forward
09:50Kirk Cousins didn't play in the preseason and do you remember was like
09:53hey by the way Michael Pennix isn't gonna play the remainder of it till we
09:56seen enough that was almost code for we hope Kirk is gonna be okay and yesterday
10:00I'm not saying Kirk Cousins was hurt but he looked ultra rusty and certainly
10:03didn't help his football team I'm not anticipating that honestly from Aaron
10:08Rodgers tonight but that offensive line if it can stand up against a very good
10:12front seven for the 49ers that's gonna give me a little bit more confidence say
10:16okay maybe that first quarter quarter half might be a little bit rough maybe
10:19he is not because we're all human beings hey last time I was out here I tore my
10:23Achilles oh no I'm on the road in a hostile environment it's a very good
10:26defensive line hope I don't get sacked like right off the bat here and I'm
10:30running for my life yeah because if they can hold up and he makes those short
10:33completions to start the game you might see that confidence build for Aaron
10:36Rodgers I'm optimistic on Aaron Rodgers it's not a lot of numbers hey Ben it's
10:41got a throw for 325 tonight no you see it right there it's 235 and a half
10:45touchdown passes one and a half which means throw two of them that's plus
10:48money it's not minus 160 attempts 33 and a half that's normal for a
10:53quarterback here for Aaron Rodgers you probably expect that to be 37 or 38 at
10:57that point so the expectations or timid to nurse as a damp down a little bit I
11:02think you can play well but this is gonna be a great football game to watch
11:05it play out I'd rather bet on Aaron Rodgers then bet against Aaron Rodgers
11:11interesting we'll see I guess based on tonight the San Francisco 49ers third
11:16best scoring defense in the National Football League a year ago the New York
11:21Jets 12th best scoring defense in the NFL a season ago but the best passing
11:26defense in all of the National Football League the only team that limited
11:30opponents quarterbacks to less than a hundred in 70 yards per game San
11:34Francisco throughout the regular season in terms of defending the pass they were
11:38in the top half of the league but it was like their one area of weakness if you
11:44want to even categorize it as such top ten and pretty much every other category
11:48giving up 214 yards per game so now we go to Brock Purdy in the quarterback
11:54comparison 237 and a half what was our conversation around Sam France man last
11:59year is he a game manager is he the reason this San Francisco offense is
12:04great is he being elevated by Kyle Shanahan yada yada yada we have said
12:09Donnie and we were often on the right side that Brock Purdy is a good
12:12quarterback yes he is a beneficiary of this system but he is a reason the
12:17system is so efficient he did struggle in the two preseason games that he
12:22played in for the 49ers but 42 80 in terms of his passing yards output last
12:28season that was fifth best in the National Football League over that
12:32number that you saw of 237 and a half in 11 of 16 games will continue to break
12:37down Monday night football when our three starts up next on the early line
12:40welcome to our number three our third and final live right here on this Monday
12:46on the early line on sports grid he is Donnie right side I am Ben Stevens we
12:51are firmly in to football season sure we'll have some major league baseball
12:56previews later in this third hour but really our focus Monday night football
13:01to end out week number one and the entirety of our first full Sunday slate
13:06the pro football doc dr. David Chow will join us up next to look at the most
13:10significant injuries that we saw from this opening weekend even dating back to
13:15Thursday and Friday Tom Vecchio of sports grid joins us later in this third
13:20hour for his prop perspective on this Monday in a focus on Monday night
13:27football that's where we begin DRS in our number three it's the 49ers it's the
13:33Jets in Santa Clara we continue our breakdown yeah by the way you got
13:37another breakdown here B double S there's more hours that we have to spend
13:41in football season getting ready for content and putting in the hard work
13:44weighed myself this morning Ben lost two pounds last week was it the stress of
13:48football season was it being up an extra couple hours I mean you want to talk
13:52about hey guys if you guys want to lose weight out here just bet football games
13:55and do football content you can eat whatever you want at any time and
13:58apparently lose weight so I feel like I'm getting in the game shape you know
14:01some people show up the training camp a little bit overweight let's say I'm
14:04overweight but you can still lose I'm working hard right now working my way
14:08back in the football shape here apparently how about that what are you
14:11what are you fully down from when you started fasting I believe in September
14:15yeah 2023 yeah I was like yeah I was 231 232 in that range you know give or take
14:21a pound or two so today I weighed myself 195 so there we go we're working our way
14:24back by the way this is right around my senior year of college playing wide
14:29receiver in the mid 190s so maybe there's something to be said about it
14:32I got a couple rats left in me man the body's telling me I'm back in shape now
14:37we're ready you never know DRS I mean down by 35 plus pounds a guy that
14:43intermittent fast a guy that hasn't eaten dinner since August of 2023 no guy
14:48is doing some good stuff football so hot yesterday
14:54waterway like a cut before a wrestling match that's what he's doing probably
15:00yeah gotta get that extra I hope they go in goodness listen I hope they cool
15:05it down for Monday night the PFT crew all together DRS okay dubs Kevin Walsh
15:10and Joe Lisi for Monday night football around out week number one of this NFL
15:15season a Monday night in Santa Clara between the 49ers and the New York Jets
15:20San Francisco a three and a half point home favorite total of 43 and a half we
15:25had to ask the people what's the best bet for Monday night football that was
15:29the question to all of you and fade the public
15:39the Niners land three and a half the Jets as the road underdog catching more
15:44than a field goal over 43 and a half under that number what is the best bet
15:49for Monday night football at SportsGrid here are your answers nearly 38% laying
15:57it with San Francisco that surprises me DRS and the second most selected is the
16:03Jets getting three and a half points but in terms of that total under 43 and a
16:08half 22% less than 15% of the votes on the over I think Donnie's fading the
16:14public in both of those categories yeah I am and by the way I do feel because
16:19again I appreciate hate in this world sometimes specifically when it's
16:23directed in the sports landscape and what's like you know what I don't care
16:26the Jets are playing they're going to get beat in that game just give me the
16:3049ers there's a lot of it out there because you took a look at a lightning
16:33rod team like the New York Jets with Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback and a
16:36lot of people just want to see them lose but you have to sort of separate
16:39yourself and I told myself in the offseason now we're looking towards the
16:43Jets this could be an absolute massacre season it could be ridiculously bad who
16:47knows what we get out of Aaron Rodgers is he focused or not I'm trying to set
16:51that aside at least for Monday night because yes we are gonna have
16:54unbelievable answers by the end of this game good or bad for the New York Jets
16:59but I want to say to myself let's look at this football team bet from start to
17:02finish defensive line linebacker cornerbacks safeties elite New York
17:08Jets defense here you take a look at the offense what did they have to improve
17:11the offensive line they tried to do that in the offseason we'll see if it plays
17:14out Brice Hall's one of the more electrified runners in the NFL you got a
17:18decent tight end but now you have a great tandem of wide receivers and Mike
17:22Williams on one side and obviously Garrett Wilson on the other so I'm
17:26expecting Aaron Rodgers to come back to a very good scenario and if we just look
17:30Ben at last year the only thing missing was just not even great quarterback play
17:35competent quarterback play and I think you're going to get that here so for me
17:38I did take the Jets at the three and a half we'll see what that line ends up by
17:42game time I take a look at the over under and I see the 43 and a half is an
17:46under and a lot of people betting it I understand that you have two great
17:49defenses but also keep in mind a lot of penalties week one defensively and
17:53offensively it will be a little bit sloppy we're not worried about weather
17:56conditions tonight in Santa Clara so I don't think that's going to be an issue
17:59but you're also if you put both these teams and say Aaron Rodgers I'm gonna
18:03get a little bit that flavor of the past five years we know Kyle Shannon is
18:06always on it so both of these teams approaching 20 points won't surprise me
18:11here so I have no choice but to look at the over as well I think when you think
18:16about this game DRS you talk defenses San Francisco third best scoring defense
18:21in the regular season a season ago 17 and a half points per game only allowed
18:26the New York Jets really focused on the defensive side of the football when a
18:31lot was asked out of that unit less than 21 points per game 12th best in the
18:36regular season last year around the National Football League but there are
18:40two good offenses on display I'm a little bit spooked because as you'll see
18:46in our triple option Eileen San Francisco with a little bit of too much
18:51love in the market for the New York Jets at this moment and at least thinking we
18:55get off to a slower scoring pace to start we'll see what happens in the
19:00final two quarters but I am very much public in line right now and I don't
19:06love that let's continue the breakdown DRS that we were looking at from the
19:10prop component we have often had the conversation around Brock Purdy what is
19:14his role in this San Francisco offense distribute the football to his talented
19:19playmakers isn't that every quarterbacks role doesn't he make this offense more
19:23efficient in doing so 4,280 passing yards a season ago fifth most in the
19:30National Football League Donnie his prompt tonight 237 and a hook against
19:34what was the NFL's best passing defense in the National Football League a year
19:38ago is still a number that Brock Purdy averaged more than 30 yards per game
19:43better than in a number that Purdy went over 11 of 16 games in the regular
19:48season I'll tell you what's wild about Brock Purdy it been let's just go back
19:52to last year if he won the Super Bowl we'd probably still be having this
19:55conversation of how much money he should deserve and how good a player he
19:58actually is and oh yeah the football team around them is really good we never
20:02questioned that with other quarterbacks when they're good like I'm well Patrick
20:05Mahomes has one of the best tight ends in history of course he's going to be
20:07good we don't question it there because why his elite arm talent we've seen him
20:11in the biggest moments make crazy plays and crazy throws same thing with Josh
20:14Allen I mean to be that big a size and that crazy good running the football and
20:19throwing it as wild we get none of that out of Brock Purdy except him being a
20:22very good quarterback but then we say well his arms not that great he's not
20:26that tall of a guy he doesn't move around all that great out of the pocket
20:30he's an okay athlete but he never gets the credit for being a very good
20:33quarterback and it's always what is Kyle Shanahan actually doing for you well
20:37quite frankly if Kyle Shanahan was great Trey Lance would be the starter and be
20:40the best quarterback of all time you'd see other guys like Nick Mullins still
20:43sticking around being the starting quarterback you have to have talent to
20:46run an NFL system I don't care how good your offensive coordinator is but I
20:49always get a kick out of that Brock Purdy is a very good quarterback but I
20:52say this now when we go to next season and he gets paid if he does reset the
20:56market like when Dak reset it like nobody's really yelling God he got
20:59overpaid like no that's what we expected but we see a contract with you know five
21:0350 million or more per season on Brock Purdy he's gonna get those detractors
21:07and it's been the first time probably since what Daniel Jones got his 40
21:10million while we all laughed about it except the New York Giants front office
21:14that's gonna be crazy to think of but for my money tonight I'm just gonna
21:17trust Aaron Rodgers a bit more for Brock Purdy but I hear you there's so much
21:21disrespect on this guy and he's a solid quarterback we just don't give him
21:24credit for winning football games we just don't and great he has offensive
21:29playmakers around him that's good that should mean a good football team
21:33offensively that includes the best playmaker in football and the reigning
21:37offensive player of the year Christian McCaffrey 73 and a half rushing yards
21:4234 and a half receiving yards expected to have more than a hundred scrimmage
21:46yards tonight but his counterpart Breece Hall pretty up there as well 64 and a
21:51half rushing 27 and a half receiving the prop perspective on this Monday the first
21:57Monday night football game of the 2024 NFL season with Sports Grids Tom Vecchio
22:04live right here on the early line across the Spiz Grizz Network Vecchio as always
22:09we appreciate the time an NFL weekend for you now in the books at Sports Grid
22:15but it continues on this Monday night we appreciate the time as always of course
22:21yeah week one was it has been great it's not over yet we have one more good game
22:26tonight some really really interesting notes that we have to pay attention to
22:30for various bending reasons let's just roll right into it yeah let's go right
22:36to it four and a half points spread now in favor of the 49ers up by a full point
22:41from where the line was early on this Monday morning it was three and a hook
22:45as you see on the screen live on the FanDuel Sportsbook now though San
22:49Francisco lay in four and a half at home the total has remained the same at 43
22:54and a half Tom with those notes what are the numbers telling you about Monday night
22:58football to end out week one really really solid game and I think there's a
23:03lot we can take away from this game even if the Jets lose which is kind of what
23:07I'm expecting overall I think we have actually some really interesting betting
23:10lines I'm expecting a kind of lack of scoring as we've seen in a lot of these
23:14games and as I've said starting on Thursday night for you know all the
23:18games live overs that's what we want to be focusing in on all these teams are
23:22starting off super slow a lack of scoring in the first half for everyone
23:25and then all of a sudden after a few series of starters finally get in the
23:28group they turn things up in the second half so that's where we want to be
23:30focusing in on if this live total drops to 37 and a half 36 somewhere around
23:35there live overs is the spot to go if we're looking at this game and saying
23:40okay the X's and O's we obviously two quality football teams talented on
23:44defense talented on offense when you're looking from even like a prop
23:47perspective you look at Aaron Rodgers do you sort of backtrack just a little bit
23:51because we haven't seen him basically in two years and also from the same side
23:55like Brandon are you supposed to be on a pitch count how do you approach these
23:58type of situations yeah the Rodgers one is really really tough because like you
24:03said we haven't seen him in a couple years and that last year in Green Bay
24:06really wasn't his best so what are we gonna be seeing from him tonight I think
24:10could be all could be all over the place I'm trying to play things a little bit
24:13safe tonight and that would lead me to under on his attempts I think that's the
24:17easiest spot to start but I think it is very tough and then the I the brain in
24:21IU news that leads me to a number of different props and we also have to
24:25remember the CMC news so there's actually a ton to break down when it
24:29comes to the San Francisco side of things so let's look at the Niners then
24:33in terms of that prop perspective we'll go season outlook big picture after all
24:38of that Aaron Rodgers will have a lot of focus tonight of course as he makes a
24:43second start in his second year with the New York Jets on a Monday night that's
24:48bad deja vu for gangrene they're hoping he plays more than four offensive snaps
24:53in the entirety of this game but let's talk about the quarterback on the other
24:57side a lot is made of Brock Purdy and his role and what exactly he means for
25:02this offense in San Francisco Tom how do you view Brock Purdy from the numbers
25:07and the prop perspective entering this Monday night clash I actually like the
25:12over on his yards which isn't something I generally see for Purdy especially in
25:16a difficult matchup as we know tough defense on really both sides but I think
25:20a part of the CMC news plays into this and it's the CMC news you know being
25:26listed as questionable this ankle Achilles injury this plays into
25:28everything because if he's not he's not at 100% because he wouldn't be on the
25:32injury report if he was at 100% so that impacts the passing props for Purdy it
25:36impacts the props for the rest of players so that's kind of my starting
25:39point for the 49ers tonight is CMC being listed as questionable so I like Purdy
25:44over on yards and probably attempts ultimately and then I like Rogers under
25:49on attempts because I think they're gonna try and ease them into things
25:51after missing a full season and I think this means a big game for Breeze Hall
25:55despite a tough defense from San Francisco it's gonna be a big Breeze
25:58Hall game and it's gonna come down to combined rushing plus receiving for
26:02Breeze Hall a lot of times last year Tom for me it was let me just take an
26:06anytime touchdown prop for Christian McCaffrey just keep rolling it over
26:09because he scored every single week if we're looking at his rushing props we're
26:13not really getting a discount 73 and a half is his number at the Fandula
26:16Sportsbook as if he's gonna be completely healthy if you had to guess
26:20tonight the game plan for the San Francisco 49ers does it mean more Debo
26:24Samuel running the football does it mean a little bit less of Christian
26:27McCaffrey or could we possibly just be overblowing the situation and we see
26:30McCaffrey with 20-plus touches tonight I think the range of outcomes for this is
26:35massive like it could maybe it's just all smoke and mirrors and CMC is just
26:39totally healthy and he goes for 22-24 combined touches and a hundred plus
26:43yards and he scores and it's just business as usual for the 49ers but on
26:46the other side of that coin it's what you said is they have Debo more involved
26:50and I think that is one of the parts that I'm gonna look to most consistently
26:53is gonna be Debo having a big game and it also might be George Kittle as we
26:58continue to break things down when you look at Christian McCaffrey of course he
27:02tied the NFL record with 17 consecutive games scoring a touchdown found pay dirt
27:08for San Francisco the first eight weeks of the season what it's so funny thank
27:13you it's just 17 weeks in a row is hilarious oh yeah I agree with that and
27:18you're right Donnie was not wrong in terms of his handicap of Christian
27:23McCaffrey just betting the anytime touchdown price despite how steep it was
27:27he scored 13 of 16 weeks in total for San Francisco in the regular season a
27:32year ago you mentioned Debo Samuel and where you think his role in the offense
27:37is let's go to New York if you look at Aaron Rodgers 235 and a hook you
27:41mentioned Brees Hall is going to be that guy but one of the reasons that you know
27:44there is optimism about what Aaron Rodgers could accomplish this year if he
27:48remains fully healthy it's not just Brees Hall but all the offensive
27:52playmakers for gang green Garrett Wilson who won the Offensive Rookie of the Year
27:56Award two years ago Mike Williams the new addition from the Chargers as well
28:02what do you make of the pass catchers for New York entering this opening game
28:05Garrett Wilson is awesome I'd have more interest in his total receptions prop
28:10compared to his receiving yards Mike Williams is also a big question mark
28:15because we know he's coming off the injury he's with a new team I think he
28:18has plenty of talent but again we can't take anything that the Jets did last
28:22year and bring it forward to this year because we have so many new additions so
28:26many things have changed they just need average quarterback play so I think Mike
28:29Williams has the talent and I think his number is super low but again he's not
28:33fully healthy like not playing in preseason all these things makes this
28:37game especially from the Jet side so so tough to handicap but again we're gonna
28:41we're gonna lean on Brees Hall we're gonna lean on Brees Hall total attempts
28:45over and Brees Hall combined rushing plus receiving plus the SF props that I
28:49have yeah it looks pretty good all throughout here because you're looking
28:53at the numbers and again we're not dealing with a football game that's 49
28:56and a half 52 and a half so some crazy numbers so you're getting what looks
28:59like to be discounted prices Debo Samuel 48 and a half yards receiving
29:03Brandon Ike 50 and a half George Kittle 45 and half then the lead dog here for
29:07the Jets at Garrett Wilson if I'm gonna ask you for advice tonight on how to
29:11approach the game from a Jets perspective would it be quarterback wide
29:15receiver or running back Tom that you say Donnie that's the market you should
29:18be invested in if you're looking to bet a player on the Jets tonight it's
29:22probably Hall and his touchdown odds I think are a plus 140 and regardless of
29:27it being a tough defense we're getting a player that has essentially projected
29:31for close to 20 total touches and in an offense that may not be passing on a
29:35super high volume if I'm going under at least the the notion that I think they're
29:39gonna try and ease Rodgers into things that means more of a Brees Hall heavy
29:43game and yes it's a tough defense but we're getting him at an awesome number
29:47for a player that's gonna get close to 20 touches which is not something that
29:50we normally get so it would start with Brees Hall then move to Garrett Wilson
29:53and then move to Rodgers in terms of just trust I have in terms of their
29:57props overall the Niners the third best rushing defense in the National Football
30:01League last year in the regular season allowing less than 90 yards per game but
30:06Brees Hall will be expected to do it all much like Christian McCaffrey 97 and a
30:11half is the rushing plus receiving yards prop for Brees Hall it's 112 in a hook
30:16for Christian McCaffrey Becky oh we just saw the board right there of your top
30:20props for Monday Night Football take us through quickly here in the final 50
30:24seconds of this segment yeah it's Debo Samuel over rushing plus receiving CMC
30:30is not healthy Ricky Pearsall is on IR IUK is on a snap count and as I've said
30:34before about Debo they manufacture touches for him out of the backfield
30:37running routes jet sweeps bubble screens they get the ball in his hands as a
30:42priority for them so if we have all these factors CMC not fully help all the
30:46players it is a Debo game tonight is a Debo TV tonight then it's gonna be
30:51and then ultimately I think that again ease Rodgers into things which would put
30:55him under rush under passing it over on Brees Hall rushing attempts 33 and a
31:01half the number for Aaron Rodgers number eight more than likely in white tonight
31:06for the New York Jets Tom Vecchio we appreciate the prop perspective on this
31:10Monday Donnie and I run the triple option for Monday Night Football that
31:14Monday Night Football a marquee matchup to end out week number one of this 2024
31:20NFL season tonight in Santa Clara between the San Francisco 49ers and the
31:25New York Jets a Monday market movement now back in favor of Sam Fran the line
31:30opened at five and a half or six earlier in the summer months it got down to three
31:36and a half last week was four and a half down to three and a half throughout this
31:40weekend and even Brighton early on this Monday morning currently DRS the live is
31:44line the line is live at four and a half on FanDuel in favor of the Niners
31:51total 43 and a half before we dive into our triple option when you look at the
31:57numbers for tonight what is it telling you about both of these teams entering
32:02their season openers it tells me that we're going to look at the 49ers from a
32:06power perspective and say home field advantage does matter in coming 3,000
32:10miles to the West Coast to play a team that just played in the Super Bowl and
32:14has a lot less technical question marks than the Jets do not about actually
32:18players on the field but can they win and actually make it to the playoffs so
32:21the 49ers might win tonight their favorite to do so we expect the 49ers to
32:25get into the playoffs I expect the Jets to get into the playoffs but it is a
32:28nice line where you're not dealing with just that coin flip like opening night
32:31right we knew we were probably gonna get a great game between the Baltimore
32:34Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs teetering on two and a half and threes
32:37here we're not getting that here we're pretty sure that the Niners are the
32:41favorite and I'm interested to see where this line actually closes is four
32:44and a half the highest number that that's going to bet that's going to be
32:47bet up today I would imagine so five seems like it would be just too far of a
32:51distance with a total of forty three and a half and expecting a close game I
32:54think four and a half is right and I like the Jets tonight I'm not saying
32:58this is one very few times under a touchdown that you might say and
33:01yesterday same thing with like the Steelers and the Falcons one of those
33:05where I can see the 49ers winning this game but I could also see saying okay
33:09Niners win but the Jets do cover the four and a half it is fascinating the
33:14San Francisco 49ers played in 20 games last year including Super Bowl 58 in Las
33:19Vegas they did lose as a favorite to Kansas City but they were favored and
33:24they were favored in all 20 games just 9 and 11 against the spread in fact in the
33:29regular season not many of them were under a touchdown let alone flirting
33:34with a field goal number I am incredibly intrigued from the spread perspective to
33:39see where the Jets are this year last year without Aaron Rodgers after four
33:43offensive plays the Jets were an underdog in 14 of 17 games six and eight
33:48against the number five outright victories in those six covers but it
33:52should be noted for instance both of these teams on the road week number two
33:56and the lines are out the 49ers five and a half point favorite in Minnesota
34:00against the Vikings who hammered the Giants over the weekend 28 to 6 in Met
34:06life Sam Donald looking great Justin Jefferson a touchdown we didn't really
34:10hit on that game I know Donnie wanted to say some things about Danny Dimes but
34:14the Jets DRS four and a half point favorite in Tennessee against the
34:18Titans again I don't think New York is going to be booked as a dog often is
34:23this the time to take advantage for Aaron Rodgers and gang green that's where
34:27we start in our triple option our favorite side total and prop for Monday
34:32night football in Santa Clara so Donnie what is your favorite side for MNF yeah
34:37I'll take the Jets and again you know anything over a field goal I would be
34:41confident with doing that three and a half fours now four and a half says
34:43we're seeing at the Fandula Sportsbook I think that makes a lot of sense but also
34:47Tom Vaccio brought up a very good point on this it's not as if you like we love
34:50live game betting don't get me wrong but week seven it's not like well let me
34:54wait to see live because Anthony Richards has played six games already I
34:57want to see him in game number seven no sometimes you might take a look at Aaron
35:01Rodgers in game number one and say I haven't seen anything out of him because
35:04quite frankly if you saw Kirk Cousins yesterday and said let me go to a
35:07quarter in Kirk doesn't look all that good here maybe I want to back off and
35:11not play this game as opposed to just playing it pregame with the Atlanta
35:13Falcons same thing for the Jets and Aaron Rodgers you come out in that first
35:17quarter he's seven for eight for 62 yards in a touchdown pass like whoa what
35:21do we got here he's one for five with an interception and sack twice in the first
35:25quarter maybe you don't want to take the New York Jets and Aaron Rodgers props
35:28here so pregame pre flop here I'll take the Jets at four and a half though so we
35:34heard it from dr. David shout the Jets are the healthier team San Francisco
35:38with some injury concerns Drake Greenlaw not going to be out there to start this
35:42season Brennan I you can Trent Williams trying to rev up into injury shape
35:46Christian McCaffrey listed on the injury report I just believe San Francisco is a
35:53better team and should win this game by a touchdown tonight the 49ers lay in
35:57three-and-a-half is the way that I look I believe there's been a lot of love in
36:01the marketplace whether it's sharp or square betting I'm not entirely sure the
36:06public like San Francisco more than I expected in our FT people to start off
36:11this third hour I'm gonna lay three-and-a-half with the 49ers the line
36:15now working to San Francisco's side of things at four and a hook Donnie you
36:19said this very early on as we first looked at Monday Night Football to end
36:23out week one two really good defenses two defenses we expect to be top five
36:28top ten throughout this NFL season but you think we see some offense and some
36:33points tonight how come you're just looking at both of these teams and again
36:38we don't have anything to go off of of what we've seen in the past that's it
36:41nothing from this year but we know as well you know you and I know this these
36:45two teams aren't built for hey we score 14 to 17 points in a game they have the
36:49best offensive coordinator slash play calling the sport in Kyle Shanahan they
36:53have an elite offense out there the San Francisco 49ers you flip it over to Aaron
36:57Rodgers with new weapons at wide receiver position and we love Breece
37:00Hall in the backfield so I would be shocked at the end of this game like man
37:03this offense scored 11 points 12 points 13 points in this game I don't think
37:08that's gonna happen so if I think both of these teams will be able to approach
37:1220 points which means 17 or more out of both of them I can't say I like the
37:17under at 43 and a half I think both of these teams should be in at least the
37:21low 20s which puts me in play for that 43 and a half I'll go over just based on
37:26that scenario but again it's week one we don't have a lot of backlog we're just
37:29going on yeah these two teams have weapons and I think they should both get
37:33the 20 points the 49ers were 12 and 5 throughout the regular season last year
37:38in all 12 wins it should not be a shock that San Francisco scored a lot of
37:42points but they did score at least 27 in all 12 victories and they are favored
37:47tonight I actually go under 21 and a half in the opening half a lot of that
37:51is more on the New York Jets in fact I wanted to bet the Jets team total under
37:55in the first half but it was not in the hook didn't like it under 10 so I'll go
38:00under three touchdowns for the first half we saw it yesterday with Kirk
38:04Cousins 36 years old coming off a torn Achilles Aaron Rodgers is 40 coming off
38:09a torn Achilles he has more time to rev up it happened week one for him as
38:14opposed to midway through the year for Kirk Cousins but I think it takes some
38:17time Donnie before you go what's your favorite part of the night Aaron Rodgers
38:21over one and a half touchdown passes inside the five-yard line he ain't
38:25handing out football people he's making eye contact throwing touchdowns baby
38:30hey have fun on the money line have fun tonight in studio at the PFT crew we'll
38:35talk on Wednesday more early line next live right here on this Monday on the
38:39early line on sports grid we round out our show today with me finishing my
38:44triple option for Monday night football looking at the individual prop
38:48perspective and then the individual race in college football who was going to
38:53strike the pose as a Heisman Trophy winner for the 2024 season let's end out
38:59the triple option for Monday night football now I hear from dr. David
39:03Chow I hear from Tom Vacchio Kyle Shanahan himself the head coach of the
39:0749ers said the Brendan Ayuk might be on a pitch count or a snap count tonight
39:12why the guy was there throughout training camp yeah he wasn't on the
39:16practice field he was holding in but he got his deal so make sure he's ready for
39:21week number one and I think he is going to be for week number one and I'm not
39:27saying he goes off for a hundred and two touchdowns tonight against the New York
39:31Jets who are the best passing defense in the National Football League a season ago
39:34in fact New York was the only passing defense that limited opponents to less
39:38than a hundred and seventy yards per game but I think the numbers are just a
39:43tad too low tonight for what is still an explosive San Francisco offense Brendan
39:49Ayuk's number is fifty and a half in our offseason conversations about Ayuk in
39:54San Francisco in his demands for more money and then his demand for a trade in
40:00the 49ers being reluctant it's because Brendan Ayuk is a darn good wide
40:05receiver we've seen that in his four years in the National Football League we
40:09have especially seen that in his last two years emerging as San Francisco's
40:14top target Christian McCaffrey is there Debo Samuel is there George Kittle is
40:18there all of these guys are some of the best at their position if not the best
40:23but look at the numbers Brendan Ayuk is the top target for each of the past two
40:28seasons he has had more targets and more receptions than anybody else with
40:32the 49ers last year for instance the first full year with Brock Purdy as the
40:37starting quarterback in San Francisco he had more than a hundred targets nobody
40:42else had more than 90 he had 75 grabs 10 more than George Kittle who had the
40:47second most with 65 receptions that leads me to Brendan Ayuk's number
40:53tonight of 50 and a hook he had more than 1,300 receiving yards a year ago he
41:00had 50 plus receiving yards if you want to play it pay a little juice and just
41:03do 50 plus I completely understand and not be burned by the hook he had 50 or
41:08more receiving yards in 12 of the 16 regular season games he played a season
41:14ago I just think the number is a tad too light again does he go off for the
41:18century mark and to receiving scores now because he got his 30 million dollar per
41:22year contract I'm not saying that but I think he can get to 50 tonight he is
41:26Brock Purdy's favorite and top target I think we see that on display against the
41:31New York Jets I understand the injury to Christian McCaffrey is slightly
41:35concerning I know Debo Samuel does it all but I believe in Brendan Ayuk having
41:39at least 50 receiving yards tonight maybe even 51 over 50 and a half

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