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00:00So Blinken then on his 11th trip to the region with critics saying showing little to show for his efforts that raising questions again
00:08About Joe Biden's waning influence on the Netanyahu government while Oliver Farry from our international affairs desk is joining me here on set now
00:16Oliver an urge from Blinken once again for a ceasefire perhaps not surprisingly
00:20But what really are the chances of the Biden administration finally prevailing over Netanyahu here?
00:27Well if the last 12 months or anything to go by very very slim are the chances as sources are saying like Anthony Blinken has said there that
00:35Benjamin Netanyahu has committed to act upon US requests regarding the humanitarian situation in Gaza that would mean allowing more aid to come through
00:45Blinken and his defense secretary Lloyd Austin warned Israel to do that in a letter earlier this month actually threatening cutting off US military aid
00:54It has to be said that the Israeli readout of yesterday's meeting did not mention either any commitment or even the humanitarian situation itself
01:04Now there has been a heightening of tone from Washington in recent months but Washington is also sending its Tad anti-missile system to Israel which has been confirmed as being put in place this week
01:14There's also a sense that the Biden administration and Netanyahu are at cross purposes
01:19Antony Blinken has told his hosts that the killing of Yahya Sinwar last week is an opportunity for a truce to get the hostages home
01:26That's not necessarily what the way Israel sees it
01:30Washington has been saying this actually for the past week
01:34They're obviously basing that on Israel having previously said that Sinwar was the obstacle to a peace deal
01:40But he may have been, Washington may have been taking Netanyahu a little bit too much at his word there
01:46There's been no let up in Israeli strikes since Sinwar's death
01:49115 Palestinians have been killed in the past 48 hours according to the Gaza Health Ministry
01:55Similarly Israel is not letting up in Lebanon
01:57Now Washington has been urging caution regarding potential Israeli strikes in Iran as Antony Blinken said there
02:03But few people would say, including Washington themselves, would think that Benjamin Netanyahu is really going to pay much attention to them
02:11So he feels that he has a strong hand regarding the Biden administration right now
02:15Yeah, Netanyahu then, as you say, some sense of leverage over Biden
02:21In what way though?
02:22Well his biggest asset is the forthcoming US election
02:25He's, it's in his own personal interest to prolong this war because it's quite likely he would face prosecution for corruption once he leaves office
02:33But he also knows the time is running out for Joe Biden
02:36Biden will be in the White House till January 20th
02:39But will he be succeeded by his vice president Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?
02:43Netanyahu is certainly banking on it being Trump, who is his preferred candidate
02:48And that of an overwhelming majority of Israelis
02:50A poll by Langer Research and Pori this month put Trump at 54% in preference among Israelis
02:56And his opponent Harris at just 24%
02:59Now this is in sharp contrast to Jewish-American preferences
03:02A recent poll for the Jewish daily The Forward put Kamala Harris at 62%
03:07And Donald Trump 31% among Jewish-American voters
03:10Other polls have put Kamala Harris even higher at 70%
03:13And this tallies with US presidential elections over the past four or five decades
03:17Which show that American Jews generally vote Democrat
03:22Those Jewish votes do not automatically translate into support for Israel
03:26In fact, a significant minority of American Jewish votes, Jewish voters would actually be quite firm on Israel
03:36But he also knows that a Republican dominated Congress
03:39And Netanyahu knows that can hamper Biden's attempts to suspend military aid in an election year
03:46What's guided Joe Biden throughout the war?
03:48I mean, he's repeatedly been sympathetic and helpful towards Israel
03:52And yet Netanyahu, well, repeatedly disregarding him
03:56Yeah, Netanyahu probably sees Biden and in fact, probably the Americans per se
04:00Even the ones who are sympathetic, who are very much more hardline towards Hamas
04:07Probably see them as just not really being in touch with the reality on the ground
04:11In the days following the October 7th attacks, Joe Biden urged Israel not to make the same mistakes America made
04:16After 9-11, he said not to be consumed by rage
04:20More than a year later, with at least 42,000 people dead in Gaza and a war now open on two fronts
04:26Many would say Biden's advice has fallen on deaf ears
04:29Now Biden obviously has an eye on the November election
04:32Like, you know, he may not be running anymore, but the Democrats are still, you know, neck and neck with Donald Trump
04:40But there's also the U.S. president's longstanding support for Israel
04:44Which is not particularly ideological, but it's probably steeped in a rather benign view
04:49Which is very common among U.S. liberals of his generation
04:52That Israel is a plucky underdog whose existence is a historical miracle
04:57Now that is not necessarily the way that younger American liberals
05:00Particularly those working in his own administration see it
05:03There have been reports of junior staffers chafing at Biden's apparent offhand reaction
05:09To being shown images of people suffering in Gaza
05:12And there's been a raft of resignations by mainly junior staffers over the past year
05:17Now this inaction has hurt the Democrats among Arab Americans
05:20The Guardian reported for yesterday that the Arab Americans slightly favoured Donald Trump over Kamala Harris
05:27And that could be enough to tilt the balance in Michigan
05:29Which is a vital swing state and which has a significant Arab American minority
05:34Now, ironically, Arab Americans historically were largely Republican voters
05:39Until George W. Bush's war on terror alienated them and they shifted their allegiance to the Democrats
05:46Now another historical event is having a potentially seismic effect
05:51And pushing them back in the other direction
05:53Don't know, thanks very much Oliver Ferry for my international affairs test there