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00:00All right, now to our NFL Week 8 Sunday Slate Pick 6.
00:09We got 14 games on Sunday.
00:12It's going to be a great weekend in the National Football League and a reminder of how the
00:17Pick 6 works.
00:19It's our favorite touchdown scorer of the weekend, a Moneyline underdog we think can
00:23strike the outright upset.
00:25Our favorite under of the weekend, an ALT line with a sprinkle of plus money.
00:30Our favorite yardage prop of the week, and we combine forces for a two-leg six-point
00:35teaser.
00:36And, Joe, would you look at that?
00:38Our favorite anytime TD prop is the same exact guy.
00:43Please begin and tell the people who it is.
00:45Well, pretty simple stuff, although I will add I think it's absolutely disgusting that
00:51Coach Mike McDaniel of the Miami Dolphins couldn't somehow scheme together anything
00:57up for Tyreek Hill while Tua was out to make him even remotely close to looking like a
01:04weapon.
01:05While Tua is back, and yes, I think he's going to have plenty enough opportunities to get
01:12one into the end zone here.
01:16So at plus money or even close to even money, Ben, I don't see how we don't back Tyreek
01:20here.
01:21Joe, we talked about this number last week.
01:24Tyreek Hill was plus 170, 2-5 later in Indianapolis against the Colts.
01:29We thought with Snoop Huntley off a bye week, more preparation, a proven spot if Mike McDaniel
01:35is the offensive genius that he claims, but it's clearly proven he is not without Tua
01:40Tungvaluwa as his starting quarterback.
01:43They got the ball to Tyreek Hill once.
01:46Once.
01:47It was unfathomable.
01:49But Tyreek Hill has already said, hey fantasy owners, I hope you didn't trade me.
01:53I hope you didn't release me.
01:54I am back.
01:55He has won receiving touchdown this year.
01:58It was week number one in the only full game that Tungvaluwa played.
02:02He had seven grabs for 130 yards and a score.
02:06He scores again at plus 105 in this matchup against a bad Cardinals defense.
02:12And Joe, what's fascinating is part of this is also number driven.
02:16Plus 105, if Tua remains healthy and Tyreek Hill starts to look like the Tyreek Hill that
02:22we had seen, the NFL's leading receiver a year ago.
02:25This number is no longer plus 105 in about two to three weeks.
02:28It's minus 135.
02:30It's minus 140.
02:31It's minus 150.
02:33So let's take advantage while we can.
02:36Oh my goodness.
02:38I had not looked at your Moneyline underdog just yet.
02:41Oh, are you kidding me?
02:43Oh, are you kidding me?
02:45Oh my God.
02:47Are you okay here, Ben?
02:48You all right?
02:49Well, it's really not.
02:51It's not that crazy to think here, guys.
02:53If it's one thing that we know with the history of Mike Tomlin and these Steelers is that
02:59they rise to the occasion against better competition.
03:05They are absolutely trash when it comes to playing teams that they are favored by three
03:12points or more after a win.
03:15And face it, let's go.
03:16That number?
03:17Seven and 30 against the number here.
03:20That's what we get from Mike Tomlin's Steelers.
03:23They notoriously make these games way closer or, Ben, lose them outright.
03:30And the Giants are the contrarian of contrarian plays here in this spot.
03:36And we all know everyone's going to run to the window to back Pittsburgh.
03:40Not me.
03:41This is exactly the kind of game where everyone's running left.
03:44I want to run right.
03:46We've already seen.
03:47Everyone thought the same thing with the Giants taking on what was it, Seattle, in that prime
03:51time game.
03:52Remember how that worked out for Seattle?
03:53Yeah.
03:54Knocked half the people out of the survivor pool.
03:57It would not shock me if the Giants not only cover this game, but win it outright here,
04:02Ben.
04:03Goodness gracious, my friend.
04:04The stones on you.
04:05I do appreciate Monday night in the Steel City.
04:09The Steelers in prime time once again, hosting a team that plays its football in East Rutherford,
04:15New Jersey.
04:16The New York Giants.
04:17I will say this about the G-Men.
04:19They were last booked as a favorite week two last year against the Arizona Cardinals.
04:25They have now been an underdog in 22 consecutive games.
04:28Monday night will be 23 in a row.
04:31They've been a pretty decent cover team, 11-10-1 against the spread.
04:36Probably those seven outright wins in that span, maybe it happens this week.
04:41I can't believe my Moneyline underdog is what it is either.
04:45But I go to the Cowboys at plus 176 on Sunday night in Santa Clara.
04:49I'm going to have to see the 49ers offense cook with Jacob Cowing as the leading receiver
04:55before I buy into the very idea that it will.
04:59I don't believe in the narrative that Bronc Purdy is a game manager and the beneficiary
05:03of Kyle Shanahan and all the offensive pieces.
05:05I just think that this is going to be very difficult to have offensive success because
05:10of the injuries across the board.
05:13And Dallas is a three-win football team.
05:15They're three and three.
05:16Where have all three of those wins come?
05:19Away from Dallas.
05:22Where you're not worried about being on display in Jerry World.
05:27And two of those three victories outright as a road underdog.
05:31Give me the Cowboys at plus 176 on that Moneyline.
05:35Both these teams need a win in a bad way here.
05:39But coming off the bye, they might have, you know, Hubeck, Parsons, a little help on the
05:45defensive side coming back.
05:47Maybe this is exactly what the Cowboys need to get it going again this season.
05:51They do, Joe.
05:52Right.
05:53They're the worst.
05:54Their second worst scoring defense in the NFL, allowing 28 points per game.
05:58Only Carolina is worse.
06:00And again, if we are comparing your statistical outputs to the Panthers, it is not the sign
06:06of a playoff team.
06:08Hopefully in that bye week, not only is Micah Parsons returning, but Mike Zimmer made sure
06:12everybody understands the defensive scheme.
06:15We shall see more of the NFL Week 8 Pick 6 coming your way next.
06:20Our NFL Week 8 Pick 6 rolls on as we go through the Sunday slate here on the Early Line on
06:27Sports Grid.
06:28He is Joe.
06:29I am Ben.
06:30We have a touchdown scorer, a Moneyline dog we think can pull off the upset.
06:34Now we go to our favorite under of the weekend.
06:37Joe, which game are you targeting and what is that total?
06:41Yeah.
06:42Well, again, I had mentioned it earlier, Ben.
06:45I saw it in front of me and it is worrisome here with the Tampa Bay Bucs here.
06:52Losing Godwin and Evans changes the dynamic of everything that they were doing offensively
06:58this year under Liam Cohn, the new offensive coordinator.
07:02And we did start to see what happens when Baker Mayfield has to do too much, right?
07:08Has to shoulder the load.
07:09That was not a good showing there.
07:11They are at home.
07:13It is a revenge spot against Atlanta, but they're both starting quarterbacks out for
07:18Tampa.
07:19Exactly what Atlanta did in the first game, they're going to be able to do against this
07:24Tampa Bay defense.
07:26The problem is everything that Tampa did in that first game, in that wild shootout
07:31is off the table.
07:32They are going to need to control the clock.
07:35They are not going to want to get into any sort of shootout here with Atlanta.
07:40They are going to have to run the ball, run it effectively and own time of possession
07:46if they're going to have a shot.
07:47I think Atlanta wins, but I don't think this is going to be any wild, crazy shootout.
07:53The market appears to agree, Ben, because this thing was 48, 48 and a half, and we're
07:57starting to see 45 and a half, 46.
08:01I think with good reason, because Tampa will not be able to keep up with Atlanta in a shootout.
08:06Joe, I've shared with you a few times, I looked at the Falcons this year as a scoring output
08:11type of team.
08:13Their first over of the year came the week before that Thursday night game against the
08:17Buccaneers in a game they did not score an offensive touchdown and still played to an
08:22over against New Orleans.
08:24This game against the Bucs was a shootout we did not expect on a short week Thursday
08:29night game in the A, 36-30 in overtime.
08:33But things have calmed down a little bit for the Falcons as of late.
08:37One of the three games last weekend that had a total of 50-plus stayed under in a loss
08:42against Seattle.
08:43Baker Mayfield has 18, 18 touchdown passes this year.
08:47That's best in the National Football League.
08:49With the last two weeks, five interceptions to boot.
08:53Did not throw an interception against Atlanta in the first meeting.
08:58Three touchdowns, but only 180 yards.
09:01The key for the Bucs is for Baker to play clean football, something he did not do against
09:06Baltimore, despite in a spot where they should have been up by double digits.
09:10And Baker then threw two picks in his next three passes.
09:14My favorite under of the weekend.
09:16The Falcons thought about alting this under 35-30, 36-30, Saints, Chargers, under 40,
09:23and a hook.
09:24The Chargers have played one over in six games this year.
09:27It was a 23-16 win where the Broncos were trailing by 20 and came back to score late
09:34points in the fourth quarter to score 37 to go over a total of 35-30.
09:41Last week, Joe, for the Bullets, it was their highest total of the year, 44-30 on Monday
09:45in the desert.
09:46They stayed well under with 32 total points.
09:49I think L.A. saw last week, and despite Justin Herbert throwing the football nearly 40 times
09:54and for nearly 350 yards in a losing effort, they are going to jam into the mind of everybody
10:00in this organization.
10:01We run them to death.
10:04Death by a thousand paper cuts or at least a thousand J.K. Dobbins rushing attempts against
10:10a Saints defense that has banged up and a Saints offense that with Spencer Rattler making
10:15his third consecutive start, I'm not sure, has a lot.
10:18I think the Chargers control tempo, control game clock, control time of possession to
10:23undo what happened to them last week.
10:26I think the Chargers win this game comfortably, and I think they win it comfortably like 23-10,
10:31if even that.
10:32Give me the under 40 and a half in L.A.
10:35Yeah, only way you can look, man.
10:37I mean, the Chargers allowing 13.8 points a game.
10:41They're not even allowing two touchdowns a game, this defense here, and the Saints
10:45certainly aren't going to help that average to go up.
10:48So I'm with you here.
10:49Run, run, run, Chargers, and run yourself right into an under, because I'm with you
10:54on that one.
10:56It is the emphasis of this organization.
10:58It is where they play their best football.
11:00Many people would look at a quarterback throwing for nearly 350 and having a passer rating
11:05of 97 and say, fantastic.
11:06What, do we beat them by four touchdowns?
11:09Not the Chargers.
11:10In fact, they lost that football game.
11:13Alt-Line with some plus money and a familiar name in the Alt-Line position.
11:18Again, Germinari, who gets your attention?
11:20Oh, boy, oh, boy, yeah.
11:23The Alt-Line for me is, I'm going to go to, let's see here, well, that was from last week,
11:30so that's all right, but I am going to go with, yeah, yeah, I don't think Montgomery's
11:34even playing here.
11:35That's why it looked familiar.
11:36Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's why it was familiar.
11:39And by the way, he got hurt last week early in that game and messed us all up for that
11:43problem.
11:44Des Moines, thank you very much.
11:47I just had the right game, just the wrong running back in that one here, but I am going
11:52to go same situation here, and you saw what's coming up there on my yardage prop.
11:56I think it correlates because I'm going to go over one, actually over two and a half
12:02touchdowns here for Stroud because I do think this is the kind of game where he bounces
12:07back after throwing less than 100 yards last week, I think he bounces back with his legs
12:13and I think he bounces back with his arm against an Indy defense that less than admirable,
12:20so I do think he usually gets right in this game against Indy.
12:25I think he gets right, I think he can run, and I think he can throw a few touchdowns
12:29in this game.
12:31Three plus passing TDs for CJ Stroud, plus 370, again, 86 yards, that's it against Green
12:38Bay.
12:39You would think if the Texans can win this divisional duel comfortably, it's a lot of
12:43CJ Stroud.
12:44Short week for Houston following Sunday, road trip to MetLife to take on the New York Jets,
12:50their second short week Thursday night football game in the last month and a half.
12:54I'm sure Aaron Rodgers has some thoughts on the scheduling logistics behind that.
12:59Offline for me, Ravens, Browns, over 48 and a half plus 144, Baltimore over in six of
13:06seven games, over in three in a row, all three have featured a total of 48 and a half or
13:13higher.
13:14Listen, Joe, when you look at this Ravens team, they've won five straight.
13:18Their scoring defense ain't great, they're allowing more than 25 points per game.
13:22That's not Baltimore defense-esque, and the Browns are not a great offense, they've been
13:27under in five of seven, but that's where you let Jameis just go rip it.
13:31He throws two touchdowns, he throws two pick sixes, we see a lot of points in the land.
13:37Over 48 and a half, we round out the pick six next.
13:41We round out our week eight NFL pick six with our final two plays.
13:46Our favorite yardage prop of the Sunday slate, and we combine forces for a two-leg six-point
13:51teaser to round out this football Friday.
13:54Renneri, after starting 0-5, we're on a hot streak, my friend.
13:59Two consecutive teasers have come through and hit.
14:03Didn't love the tease spots this week, but we'll talk about that in just a moment.
14:08You talked about C.J. Stroud, all money, three-plus passing touchdowns at plus 370.
14:13If you wanted to make it simple, focusing on C.J. Stroud, where are you looking?
14:17Yeah, I'm going to go strictly in the air, and the passing attack here, which is something
14:22they are going to need him to be much better at this week than he was last week here.
14:29So I absolutely expect we're going to get better.
14:33In fact, Stroud averages over 311 passing yards a game at home over his brief career
14:40here, and he also averages about 300 yards a game versus Indy here.
14:47So I think that 241 number is a little bit low.
14:51We did throw for 234 against him in week one, and that was when they ran the ball 40 times
14:57in that game.
14:58I don't think that's happening here.
15:00I do think Stroud has gone over this number in nine of his last 11 home games.
15:05I don't see how he doesn't go over in this one against Indy.
15:08Listen, there's been some conversation about that sophomore slump for C.J. Stroud, the
15:13NFL learning a lot about the young quarterback for Houston.
15:17Bobby Slowick let him rip this week to prove the naysayers wrong?
15:21Maybe so.
15:22I do enjoy that look.
15:23I'm also going to a quarterback over their passing yards prop.
15:27Jordan Love over 258.5 against Jacksonville.
15:31Love over this in his first two games, one in Sao Paolo against the Eagles, and of course
15:37in a large comeback effort against the Minnesota Vikings, 258 two weeks ago, just slightly
15:42under by the hook against the Arizona Cardinals.
15:45But it's not so much about the gunslinger that Jordan Love has emerged to be.
15:49It's about the Jags, Joe.
15:51Second worst passing defense in the NFL, allowing 274 yards per game.
15:56Five of the seven QBs the Jags have faced this year over this number, including Drake
16:02May in his second career start in London, 276.
16:06Joe Flacco, 359.
16:08C.J. Stroud had 345 against Jacksonville.
16:12Josh Allen, 263 to a tongue of Iloa in his first fully healthy game of the year, 338.
16:18Jordan Love, 258 and a hook, 275 plus 300 plus for Green Bay in Duval County on Sunday.
16:26All right, two leg, six point teaser.
16:30Let's round out the show.
16:31I will just say, again, did not love the tee spots.
16:34There's a bunch of big spreads where it doesn't really make sense to the six point tees because
16:39you're not getting through key numbers.
16:41Not all that great.
16:43This was the one spot I considered as well, Joe.
16:46Your leg of the teaser, but I've been burned by the New York Jets too many times.
16:50Why will the Jets at least win in Foxborough?
16:53Listen, I'm not running to the window to lay a touchdown with the Jets in any way, shape
16:59or form, but I'm only asking them in this spot to win this game.
17:05And I think they can do that, given what they have returning, including we'll finally see
17:11Hassan Redick on the field.
17:13It appears here in a Jets uniform as they came to an agreement finally.
17:18So that will help the defense.
17:19DJ Reed will be back in.
17:21Michael Carter will be back in.
17:23The whole back end of the secondary will be there for the Jets again, making life difficult
17:29for May.
17:30They should and have to win this game.
17:32I think they will.
17:34I'll lay one.
17:35I won't lay seven.
17:38Listen, I'm going to be a believer in Baker Mayfield one final time on Sunday.
17:43I think the Bucs have a slight bit of juice against the Falcons.
17:46I understand the defensive concerns.
17:48I know all the offensive injuries.
17:50It's why I'm gonna move the Bucs up to an eight and a half point dog through three through
17:54seven and just hope Tampa loses this game by seven points or less.
17:59They're 11 and six against the spread as an underdog with Baker Mayfield as their starting
18:06quarterback.
18:08They need to have something, Joe, if they are going to make this season worth anything.
18:12You do not want to keep dropping divisional games against the team.
18:16You are going to be looking up at if Atlanta wins this one.
18:20It's over by the time we reach November in terms of who would have that tiebreaker.
18:24It would be the Falcons in front of the Bucs.
18:27One last bit of resolve.
18:29We won two consecutive teasers.
18:33Hopefully we may go three.
18:34How about a weekend of football in store, Joe Renneri?
18:37Yeah, I love it.
18:39And it correlates with the under I have in the game.
18:42So give me the points.
18:43Give me the under.
18:44And I think we'll cash another teaser this week, Ben, I'm confident.
18:49I will see you tomorrow for some Saturday college football.
18:52We will get you straight for the week nine Saturday slate on the early line.
18:57We'll see you Monday, 8 a.m. Eastern time.
19:00Have a great weekend.
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19:05Have a great weekend.
19:06We'll see you Monday, 8 a.m. Eastern time.
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19:09Have a great weekend.
19:10We'll see you Monday, 8 a.m. Eastern time.
19:11Have a great weekend.
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19:13Have a great weekend.
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19:15Have a great weekend.
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19:17Have a great weekend.
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19:19Have a great weekend.
19:20We'll see you Monday, 8 a.m. Eastern time.
19:21Have a great weekend.