• 2 months ago
Transcript
00:00Live right here on this football Friday on the early line for the next half hour
00:04It's all picks and breakdowns to set the stage for the Sunday slate in the second weekend of this NFL season
00:12It is our pick six. He is germinary
00:15I am Ben Stevens a reminder if this is your first time tuning into a football Friday this season
00:21This year or any year around the early line on the Spiz Grizz Network
00:26Our pick six or six bets in a creative way that we like for Sunday
00:31It is our favorite as we look at everything any time touchdown score of the weekend a moneyline
00:37Underdog that we think can strike the outright upset our favorite under of the weekend an alternate line
00:44Whether it be a spread total player prop
00:46We want to give you some plus money and a sprinkle our favorite yardage prop of the weekend and then Joe and I combined forces
00:53for a two-leg
00:54Six point teaser. I asked us last week Ranieri. I really screwed the pooch
00:59I took the Bengals down to a two and a half point favorite
01:02Against the Patriots and we know how that turned out
01:05So as we get going here for the pick six in these next 25 minutes or so
01:11You begin my friend your favorite anytime touchdown score this weekend is who and in what game I?
01:18am going to head to
01:20Lambeau
01:22Field and I am going to look at Jonathan Taylor who knows a little something about the state of Wisconsin
01:29Doesn't he Ben?
01:30In fact, he has spoken a number of times about how he really wants to do a Lambeau leap in his return to the state
01:38of Wisconsin a former
01:40Badger has been looking forward to this game and judging the way the Packers played defense last week against
01:46Philadelphia against the run in which Saquon Barkley had a field day and they allowed three rushing touchdowns
01:52I do think that the Colts are going to have plenty of opportunities and plenty of possessions there
01:59To have the ball and to make Jonathan Taylor get that Lambeau leap after all
02:04So it's it's JT for me into the end zone for a touchdown
02:09He does know the state of Wisconsin a big Saturday in Wisconsin as well
02:14That's in Madison fourth-ranked, Alabama comes to town to take on the Badgers
02:19So JT hoping for a very successful weekend back in the state where he played college football
02:24But not for the in-state team being the Packers. It's funny. You picked Jonathan Taylor
02:29I looked at the same game, but just to the guy alongside JT in Indies back
02:34You know, that's Anthony Richardson plus 145 to find painter scored last week in the opener for Indianapolis
02:42Against the Texans. He's a battering ram at 6 4 6 5 to 55 when he needs to be around the goal line
02:49Of course, they want to protect him as injuries ended his season early on during his first year last year
02:55But Joe he's played only five games in his NFL career for last year completed to one this year
03:02Completed the game which is a good sign against the Texans five career games five rushing touchdowns
03:08For Anthony Richardson, I do believe he finds painter at a plus 145 number against Green Bay on
03:16Sunday, but just because we both believe that the Colts will find painter
03:20One of the two guys at least in the backfield
03:23Maybe even both does that mean Joe that Indy cakes cakewalks to a victory over Malik Willis and Green Bay?
03:31No, it doesn't which is why Green Bay is going to be my Moneyline underdog here
03:36Ben given the fact that listen as much as we want to Pat the Colts on the back
03:41It was like an 80-yard bomb
03:44By Richardson, it was like a blocked punt
03:48There the offense was sporadic
03:51Jonathan Taylor only had what three yards a rush I think is what he averaged
03:56now granted there is a big drop between Jordan love the Malik Willis, but
04:00La floor I believe as a underdog has been one of the most profitable coaches to back here in
04:09Lambeau and you want to give them a field goal. I don't think they're gonna need it
04:13I do think that they will figure out a way somehow to win this game and the Colts and the young Richardson
04:20Will have some issues there in that environment
04:23So Joe, it just feels like a game that Green Bay is going to win somehow some way
04:27That's how I look at it in a picks pool with confidence points
04:31I'm not all that confident, but I did pick the upset
04:34I do like to look as a Moneyline dog. The Packers did not cover last week as that underdog in
04:41Sal Palo against the Eagles two and a half points spread the Eagles winning that game by five
04:46But last year as an underdog when not much was expected of the young Packers roster and the unproven
04:53Jordan love they were eight and four
04:56Against the spread six of those eight covers and outright victory. I have a lot of doubts about Malik Willis
05:03What an interesting story Willis is right out of Liberty drafted in the 2022
05:09NFL draft in the third round by Tennessee, but during that draft process and cycle
05:13There was a time where Willis was thought of as the number one overall pick or at least the first quarterback off the board
05:19That was Kenny Pickett in Pittsburgh, he's now the backup in Philadelphia
05:23There was only one quarterback take it in the opening round for the first time since 2013 all to say
05:29Maybe the evaluators were right about Willis who made three starts in his rookie year for Tennessee back in
05:362022 he has not thrown a touchdown pass in his NFL career, but does have three
05:42Interceptions a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs and a Packers defense that is going to have to be good
05:48If Green Bay is going to win outright now, it's not quite the plus 132 price of Green Bay
05:54How about plus 102 for my money line underdog?
05:56It's the Rams in Arizona on Sunday two straight road games for LA to start off
06:02Never great a lot of injury concern along the offensive line trying to keep the veteran Matthew Stafford
06:08upright, which is also a
06:11Concern, I'm not sure if we're going to see Rob Havenstein
06:15I'm not sure if we're going to see Joe note
06:17Boom, the two guys that anchor either side at the tackle spot Jonah Jackson
06:22The only presumptive starter for LA that has even practiced in full this week for the Rams up front
06:29But give me Sean McVeigh over Jonathan Gannon each and every day
06:34Give me Sean McVeigh's ability to scheme this up knowing the injury concerns for LA with a week of preparation
06:40Joe this is the first time the Cardinals will be booked as a favorite since
06:452022 and in that season only a favorite three games. They have not been in this spot
06:51I'm not entirely sure why they are booked as the favorite. I think it's a slight
06:56Overreaction and you look at the Cardinals they got to Josh Allen twice last week
07:00But last year the third least amount of sacks in the NFL with just 33
07:05So if they were playing a different team with a more vaunted pass rush and the injury concerns for the Rams
07:12O-line, I might be a little bit more concerned the Rams last year five three and one against the number as an underdog
07:18I'll take the Rams outright to pick up win one of
07:222024
07:23Yeah, I got I'm with you there it that too is one of those games that feels like
07:28Yeah, I get the home field advantage not what it once was certainly in Arizona
07:33But it certainly does feel like it's a game. The Rams will bounce back in with Stafford and McVeigh
07:39They'll figure it out against a very porous defense there Ben
07:43So now let's go our favorite under of the weekend
07:47Kudos to you my friend the bravado
07:49You must have to look at the lowest under of the weekend of 36 and a half and say not too high
07:55We're going under in mile high the Broncos and the Steelers. How come Joe?
08:01Because of an eight broke don't fix it. I sat here last Friday and told you
08:06Guys it with the Tomlin record as the head coach of the Steelers on the road is ridiculous. It's now
08:1452 22 to the under in all regular season road games since
08:202015 and they have gone under the
08:23Score by a total of three and a half points a game
08:28if it ain't broke I ain't fixing it Ben the Steelers and
08:32Especially with who's calling plays for him now with Arthur Smith
08:35There is there's no airing out in this game. This is going to be a rock fight. They'd be lucky to get the 30
08:43Pittsburgh did win last week 18 to 10 outright as a four and a half point dog in
08:48Atlanta a total in the low 40s stayed well under the Steelers won a football game by
08:56More almost more than a score but technically just to score because it was eight points without scoring a single touchdown
09:03Just six field goals. Chris Boswell was great last week in the ATL and the Broncos did end up scoring 20 points
09:10But some of it late in a game that was heavily decided by Seattle
09:15We continue to pick six on the other side of the break on this football, right?
09:19Joe showing the stones on this football Friday looking at the lowest total of week
09:24Number two and the Sunday Slayton saying under in mile high between the Broncos and the Steelers
09:31So there's many ways that I would like to invest in New York on the road in Nashville on Sunday
09:37I understand logistically
09:39It is a very difficult start to the year for the Jets on the road in Northern
09:45California against the San Francisco 49ers back home for a few days then right out to Nashville on a shorter week
09:52But at least on paper and maybe I'll eat my words and Will Levis will make me eat crow on Monday
09:58But as long as that guy's the quarterback for Tennessee, give me the Jets all
10:03Day long I'd lay the three and a half with New York. I am NOT so concerned about Aaron Rodgers
10:09I think the ground game picks up against Tennessee
10:11It's the defense that I think has to make a statement and if Will Levis is the starting quarterback for the Titans
10:17Then give me the Titans team total under
10:1918 and a half Tennessee was tied for the fifth worst scoring offense in the National Football League last year
10:25One of six teams that averaged less than 18 points per game
10:29I understand the Jets gave up 32 to San Francisco and frankly
10:33It could have been more as Jake Moody hit six field goals
10:37Some of those would have been paid off with a touchdown
10:40But I think the offense picks it up and the Jets defense was great last year with the weight of the world on
10:47its
10:48Shoulders, I think the offense is better. Aaron Rodgers is better ground game and Breece Hall or better with the offensive line
10:56Garrett Wilson the guy on your screen
10:58I would keep an eye on as well seventy and a half his receiving yards prop Al Lazar thirty seven and a half
11:04We know that Aaron likes the guys that he feels comfortable with. I like the Jets lay in three and a half
11:10I think New York gets their first win of the year and I think they do so in rather dominant fashion
11:14Tennessee under 18 and a hook
11:17Again spot on here. This needs to be a dominating performance by the Jets defense
11:23And I do think the motivation will be there to get it done big time. Yeah
11:29Yeah, that is the way I look at it for the Titans and the Jets on Sunday
11:34All right, all line you're going back to Green Bay. What's the play?
11:39Yeah, and as you can see there we're correlating a lot of these right we've got one
11:44We might as well go for broke and
11:47Listen with Malik Willis there. We have Green Bay as our moneyline underdog and for that to happen
11:54It's not Malik Willis who's got to have the big game
11:57It's got to be Josh Jacobs, and I don't think LaFleur is just going to ask
12:03Willis to have this
12:05Unbelievable game here of dropping back and throwing 50 times. I think anytime they get the ball in the red zone
12:11I think Josh Jacobs is the guy that's going to get
12:14Opportunities here and listen the Colts defense not great by any stretch
12:20And I do think that he'll have an opportunity here to get not just one running the ball
12:25But probably one catching the ball out of the backfield as well
12:28So two or more touchdowns for Josh Jacobs for me in this one in Green Bay
12:34plus
12:35460 that is the number and I absolutely love the look again
12:39I kind of agree with you that Green Bay seems to be that field goal underdog that can prevail on
12:46Sunday the line should be more from the drop-off to Jordan love to Malik Willis and it's not
12:52Say something but because of Josh Jacobs, that's how Green Bay keeps this game close and maybe wins outright
13:00I'm going to outline Browns Jags over
13:0446 and a half the total is 41 and a hook and if you looked at last week in the quarterback play between Deshaun Watson and
13:11Trevor Lawrence, you're probably thinking I'm a little bit crazy both offenses put up only 17 points
13:17Deshaun Watson was absolutely abysmal as he has been in the 12 starts he has made for the Browns
13:23But the main focus Joe is on Jacksonville
13:25The Jaguars scored all 17 in their 17 of their points in the opening half
13:30Then in the second half the offense stalled out
13:32Miami blanked them with a couple of long drives and there was a fumble from Travis ETN in the red zone
13:38Inside the Dolphins 15-yard line that really stifled what Jacksonville was trying to do
13:43One of the reasons I go over all line here is because the Browns last week gave up 33 points
13:493317 against the Cowboys total was 42 and a half right around this number
13:53It's skied over with 50 combined points
13:56The Browns have often played in games the last two seasons now start from 2023 to where we are at this moment
14:03Where the total has been just simply too low the Browns last year the highest over percentage in the national football league 12 of 18 games
14:11Over not because they were putting up 50 points each and every week and they were going over totals of 48
14:1749 50 and a hook the numbers were so low because of how bad the quarterback play was
14:23Or at least the expectation for what Joe Flacco would be able to do and they still found their way over
14:29I think both offenses are better
14:32I think we get a lot of points on
14:35Sunday at least worth a sprinkle and by the way
14:37Joe the Browns not only the highest over percentage in the NFL a year ago over in all nine of the games
14:43They play a late and they played away from Cleveland a season ago now
14:48Let's go to your favorite yardage prop of the weekend
14:51I really like this look Joe for what is the marquee matchup in that Sunday afternoon time slot in Kansas City Chiefs?
14:58Bengals, what's the play?
15:01Again, another correlating shot here of a game that we talked about earlier with the Bengals
15:08taking on Kansas City and I do like
15:12The Bengals in that game and I also like Joe Burrow going over his passing prop number
15:19228 and a half is what I think it was we saw
15:23he was absolutely miserable in game one, but not because
15:28He didn't he couldn't throw the ball and not because of a risk is because they had eight total possessions in the game
15:34Eight and and two of those eight drives ended in ridiculous turnovers
15:40That should never have happened. Otherwise, we're having a different discussion about this Bengals team
15:45Yeah, give me a big bounce-back effort here with Burrow
15:49T Higgins probably not playing but you're gonna have chase you got boy
15:53You got more than enough for him to be able to get over this number
15:5748 plays that's it. Just 48 offensive snaps for Cincinnati last week 29 attempts from Joe Burrow
16:0621 completions was sacked three times
16:10So not a lot on the ground either for Zach Moss in his Bengals debut
16:14Let chase Brown go out there and eat please for the Bengals moving forward
16:20But I like to bounce back for both the Bengals and burrow in this week to game and a monumental one in arrowhead
16:27Against Kansas City. I'll give you my favorite yardage prop
16:29It will combine for that two-leg six-point teaser that failed week one, but will not in week two
16:36That's next year on the other line
16:38We continue our pick six for the Sunday slate in week number two in the National Football League
16:45You gave your favorite yardage prop Joe Joe to Joe
16:48That's burrow going over to 28 and a half in terms of his passing yards on Sunday in Kansas City
16:55I go to JK Dobbins the Chargers on the road in Carolina boy
17:00The Panthers are bad, but when you look at the bolts last week JK Dobbins as you and blew it
17:05We're on Ranieri over his rushing yards property at 10 carries against the Raiders was explosive
17:13135 yards and a touchdown. Am I a little bit late to the game?
17:17I don't believe so for two reasons
17:19Despite Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman say that they're going to go with the hot hand. So technically that could be Gus Edwards
17:26I think JK Dobbins has emerged as the lead back and I still still very much stress this although Justin Herbert is there
17:34Harbaugh in Roman who did this in San Francisco and Roman did it with Jim's brother John in
17:41Baltimore and Jim continued the philosophy in Ann Arbor. They are going to establish the run
17:48They want to take the onus off of Justin Herbert who has had to do so much
17:53For this Chargers organization in the first four years of his NFL career now in a year number five
18:00They are going to run the football. So I think the number is slightly light on JK Dobbins
18:0555 and a half and oh by the way
18:08Carolina allowed a hundred and eighty yards
18:11Rushing last week against New Orleans
18:13They were the tenth worst rushing defense in all the NFL last season and as Mike Bluett said and it should be stressed
18:21Derek Brown one of the best interior defensive linemen in the National Football League a little bit
18:27Overshadowed because he plays in Carolina is now out for the remainder of this season another big blow for the Panthers to contend with
18:36Yeah, it's uh
18:38But ultimately it's going to come down to whether or not they can figure out what to do with their number one
18:44Draft pick their quarterback here. They can't get Bryce young to get in any rhythm whatsoever
18:51I don't care who you have on do you can have 16 guys on defense? It's still not gonna matter for Carolina
18:57Yeah, it's really unfortunate right because now you look at the Panthers who have been an underdog in all 18 games dating back to the start
19:04Of last year Bryce young has started 17 of them
19:07They are 412 and 2 against the number as a dog Bryce young last week was atrocious
19:1313 of 30 for less than 150. I don't even know it was less than 200
19:17He is thrown for less than 200 yards in 10 of the last 11 games
19:23The Panthers have played only over 300 which was his only time over 250
19:29Against Green Bay week 17. I mean, it's bad man. It's bad. I kind of was optimistic
19:34It would change at least slightly for Carolina not an eight or nine win football team, but maybe just six
19:40I don't know if that's going to be the case. Let's combine for our two-leg
19:45Six-point teaser it missed last week. That's on me
19:48I hope to hold up my end of the bargain this week, but Joe you start
19:54So again another correlated spot here Ben
19:58But I'm gonna go back to mile high and while I told you guys I love I love the simple fact that
20:06The unders in that trend with Tomlin and the Steelers have on the road has been tremendously profitable
20:13But do you know what other trend we can always count on when it comes to Mike Tomlin and the Steelers Ben?
20:19It's the simple fact that they play much better against good teams
20:26division games and
20:28After a loss, you know what doesn't apply in this game any of those things
20:33You know what else applies is how terrible Tomlin and the Steelers have been against teams. They should beat
20:40Especially in non-division games, which is exactly what we have here. I have no problem
20:47Teasing the Broncos up to eight and a half in such a low total game
20:51Knowing that this is usually where the Steelers have a letdown game
20:57Yep, the Pittsburgh Steelers last year as a favorite not bad
21:02But again, when you look at what Pittsburgh has done better as a dog than they are as the favorite side
21:09They will be a slight favorite in Denver the Broncos last year as an underdog just seven and eight against the numbers
21:17So as it stands Joe you go Denver up to eight and a half
21:19It makes a ton of sense through two key numbers and a game that features the lowest total of the weekend
21:25I bring the Cowboys down through three make it a pick against New Orleans. I think Dallas wins the game outright
21:32I actually think they cover the overall spread
21:35I think we're a little bit hyped up on the Saints after the thrashing of
21:38Carolina give me Dallas to start to an O and look pretty good at home in the debut at the star
21:44Those are the pick sixes. That's the two-leg six-point teaser. He is germinary
21:49I am Ben Stevens
21:51We'll see you all tomorrow on a college football Saturday on sports grid the early line returns on Monday. Have a great weekend

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