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00:00It's number three, Penn State. It's number four, Ohio State. It is week number 10 of this college football campaign. It's the opening Saturday in November. It starts the final month of the regular season. This is where things get good. Joe, the Buckeyes, despite being the lower ranked team, are the road favorites, laying three and a half. The total is up by a point from 45 and a hook earlier this year.
00:30This week, now at 46 and a half. And, oh brother, the narrative that we will have entering Saturday. We have shared it a few times on this show. It does bear repeating.
00:42Ryan Day is two and six in his tenure in Columbus against AP top five foes. James Franklin is just one and nine against Ohio State during his time in State College. Three and 17 straight up against AP top 10 opponents.
00:59Joe, it's the narrative. It's not necessarily numbers driven, but how much is the narrative affecting your handicap for tomorrow between number three, Penn State and number four, Ohio State?
01:12Well, it's there, but quite honestly, we're being realistic here. How do we trust either of these coaches in a big time game at this point? Both have shown an inability to be able to get their teams up and over the hump when it matters the most.
01:28Especially Ryan Day over the last couple of seasons. And of course, you mentioned Franklin's record. They can't beat Ohio State. They beat everyone else. They can't beat Ohio State. But having said that, if they were ever going to get one in the W column against OSU, it's got to be in this game.
01:48At home, Ohio State's offensive line right now is an absolute mess. Their left tackle, Simmons, is out for the year. His backup, who wasn't very good, got hurt last week. So now you got another backup to the backup on that offensive line with a couple of other young guys there.
02:07Now they're going to face a Penn State pass rush led by Abdul Carter. That is one of the best in the country here, Ben. They can't run the ball. They can't run the ball because the offensive line of Ohio State is terrible. So if Ohio State can't run it, that means Will Howard has got to beat him with his arm.
02:25Now they got all the talent in the world, but maybe the most talented unit of Ohio State is that defense. And Penn State's quarterback, Alar, still questionable, although they've got plenty of experience in the backup. To me, I forget the side in this game because I think both teams are going to do everything they can to try to lose this game.
02:45I think the under is the way to go. I think both defenses, Ben, have all the edges in this game. It would not shock me if this is a 17-14 kind of game here. I don't see over 46.5 points at all. It's an under for me in this one.
03:04So I lean the other way, just based on what we have seen this year. Ohio State has played in one game with a 17-point spread or less, thus expected to be competitive. It was in Autzen, another road game, another top-five tilt. That game went well over, 32-31, the final there for the Buckeyes.
03:24And to your point, Joe, Ohio State's still one of the elite defenses in the country. They allowed 34 points in their first five games. They then gave up 32 to the Ducks in 17 last week against Nebraska. Ohio State is great at limiting scoring against them, even if they give up some yardage.
03:43They've only allowed 10 red zone attempts this year, tied for the fewest amount alongside Ole Miss in just six red zone touchdowns. And Penn State's defense is absolutely elite, especially in the second half, just 30 points allowed in the final two quarters of each of their seven games this year.
04:03But Penn State has only played to the over twice this year. It also came in a game that featured their lowest spread of the season. That was against USC a few weekends ago out in Southern California.