• last month
Transcript
00:00a time for Indiana to shut everybody up however the odds don't anticipate that
00:12is going to be the case against more than likely the number two team in the
00:16country Ohio State the Buckeyes are now a twelve and a half point favorite
00:20against the unbeaten Hoosiers 52 and a half is the total Joe when this line
00:26opened up earlier this week that early look ahead Indiana on the by it was nine
00:31and a half in some spots ten and a half and others it has been bet heavily to
00:36the Buckeyes how do you make sense of that spread of twelve and a half for a
00:41top five kill yeah I don't like it I don't like it at all because we have
00:47seen especially early Ben Ohio State gets off to these ridiculously slow
00:53starts and then has to figure things out in the second half defensively this
00:59will be the best obviously the best team Indiana has seen but there's something
01:05special about Cignetti teams who is oh they've always been the underdog they've
01:10always been the team that is extremely well coached may not have the most
01:15talent on the field but you know what Ben they don't shoot themselves in the
01:19foot they don't make the stupid mistakes and they play sound football
01:23will that be enough to keep this game within single digits as opposed to
01:28double digits I think it's worth a bet on Indiana keeping this thing much
01:33closer against Ohio State than expecting Ohio State to run all over the Hoosiers
01:39here this weekend I completely agree Joe and again I've said this multiple times
01:44we're gonna talk a lot about Curtis work and we're gonna talk about Justice
01:47Ellison and Tyson Lawton and Elijah Sarath and the offense that has put up
01:52historic numbers for Indiana this season as we saw in the opening half against
01:57Michigan to me the difference in what makes the Hoosiers legitimate is one of
02:01the best defenses in all of college football the best rushing defense in all
02:05of college football Indiana one of a few teams around the country that ranks in
02:10the top 15 in every major stat category scoring in total offense scoring in
02:16total defense Ohio State has that distinction as well but that is expected
02:22for the Buckeyes here's where I think Indiana has an opportunity to win this
02:28game or to keep it within a single score that total of 52 and a half I think it
02:33has to go over Ohio State has played to the over just once in its first seven
02:38big ten games it was the only loss of this season for the Buckeyes on the road
02:42in Autzen against Oregon 32 31 Ohio State is hardly allowed more than 32
02:49points in its other six big ten games where they have gone under in all six if
02:55Indiana can approach that total that's how they stay within a number and Joe to
03:00your point about that first half or first quarter spread that's how Indiana
03:05stays within it as well they have been one of the best first half teams they
03:09had not trailed in a game until Michigan State a few weeks ago and here
03:15it is this Saturday afternoon noon Eastern Time kick in Columbus Ohio
03:21inside the shoe number two Ohio State number five Indiana and yet Zeno a 13
03:29and a half point spread in favor of the Buckeyes total stands at 51 and a half
03:35there are so many different ways to approach this game its significance for
03:39a Big Ten championship race its significance of course first and
03:44foremost for the college football playoff in what a loss would do to
03:49Indiana's resume so here is how I'm going to ask you the question marks you
03:54know if Indiana covers the number will it change at all how you view this
03:59Hoosiers foot Hoosiers football season in the legitimacy of Indiana's
04:05candidacy for the college football playoff well there's a difference we
04:09cover the number and have a chance to win the game and cover the number yeah
04:13they can backdoor this thing here from a 20-point spread to a 7-point spread a
04:1720-point game rather to a to a 14-point game and and and get within a number you
04:21follow what I'm saying they're like it's not impossible for them to cover the
04:24number but having a chance to win the game is really what this metric is all
04:28about and how we're gonna judge Indiana do they have a chance to win the game in
04:32the second half do they have a chance to take a lead in the second half if those
04:35answers are no then guess what really is irrelevant whether Ohio State covers the
04:40spread or not Indiana was never really in the game and I don't think they will
04:44be in the game I mean I jumped on this earlier in the week I got minus 12 and a
04:47half and I have very little hesitation about that number and and it being wrong
04:52I mean the last 14 times a top-five undefeated team has been a double-digit
04:56underdog they are 0 and 14 straight up and 5 and 9 against the number in fact
05:02this is the seventh consecutive season where a team 10 or no or better has been
05:06a double-digit underdog including bowl games because last year it was Florida
05:10State five of the last six have all lost and all five losers scored 10 points or
05:15less in that game Indiana is gonna get steamrolled on Saturday huge big 12
05:21weekend marks you know between not only Colorado and Kansas but now BYU looking
05:28to bounce back after its opening loss of the season Arizona State an 8 and 2
05:33football team now ranked 21st in the CFP top 25 against the BYU team that fell
05:39eight spots to number 14 BYU still the highest ranked big 12 team in the CFP
05:46top 25 but you know the odds makers have not loved the Cougars all year and
05:52they're catching three and a half points on the road on in Tempe on Saturday
05:56afternoon how do you break down this big 12 bash speaking odds makers not loving
06:01a team they have undervalued Arizona State a lot this year as well and oh by
06:05the way if you don't know the name Kenny Dillingham the head coach of Arizona
06:08State you're gonna start to know him real soon because the turnaround that
06:11he's done with that Sun Devils program has been nothing short of remarkable and
06:15putting them on the map this year look you have BYU coming off this big loss
06:20right in Provo and going out on the road here let me just give you a trend when
06:24you have two ranked teams playing each other Arizona 21st BYU 13th the worst
06:30ranked home favorite in this case in the last 30 matchups is 21 and 9 ATS if it's
06:37game 8 or later in the season they are 15 and 4 that's 79% against the spread
06:43since 2019 give me the Sun Devils here who still have a shot to play in the big
06:4712 championship game if they win this one and it's a big one at home for the
06:53Sun Devils here I'll lay the three and a half I mean I you know if you're really
06:57sort of worried about it by a half point or even pay the extra juice on the money
07:01line to go to minus 146 but Arizona walks out of here a winner let's go to
07:05the Bronx inside Yankee Stadium in a top-20 tilt between Notre Dame and Army
07:12the Irish 14 and a half point favorite against another undefeated team one of
07:18three remaining FBS unbeaten programs in the Army Black Knights 14 and a half
07:24point spreads in a total is 44 and a half two teams that run the football
07:29incredibly well and two teams that also play some great defense how do you
07:34break down the Bronx battle on Saturday night inside Yankee Stadium I'm kind of
07:41afraid to answer so I was wondering if you could tell me what side you're on
07:44what side you're on first I don't know how to respond passing touchdowns prop
07:51probably gonna be the way I go just so you know okay well I would I would
07:55probably agree with that because I think that army's going to get outclassed
07:59similarly the same way that Navy is got outclassed by Notre Dame I mean this is
08:03just about athletes for me like at the end of the day Notre Dame is gonna put
08:0611 better guys on the field than army at every single position on both sides of
08:10the ball and I just don't know how army deals it like you know maybe if this
08:14game was was at West Point you can look at it that way I mean Notre Dame is good
08:18Yankee Stadium is filled with Notre Dame fans I get that armies right up the road
08:22so to speak right there up to up to Hudson but this is gonna be a massively
08:26Notre Dame crowd inside Yankee Stadium for this game which is gonna be an
08:30awesome sight to see in a great venue I just I don't know how army keeps up if
08:34Navy gets a two touchdown lead similarly the way Navy went up 14 nothing I'm
08:38sorry Notre Dame rather went up 14 nothing on Navy and it was all for naught
08:42after that how does army play catch-up like I just don't I know what they're
08:47able to do against everybody else but again Notre Dame is the one team in the
08:51country that sees the service academies regularly and knows how to go against
08:55them Marcus Freeman has been part of this program for years and he's seen
08:58service academies regularly and knows what to do so I just I unless Notre Dame
09:03beats themselves I don't see army staying within this number I know they're
09:06a very popular dog here but I wouldn't I wouldn't get involved it's Notre Dame
09:10or pass for me. Back on the Fountain Blitz SEC edition we'll turn our
09:14attention to week number 13 huge battle taking place in the swamp Florida was
09:19able to pick up the victory last week against LSU coach they now open as a
09:24nine-and-a-half point home dog to the top-ranked Ole Miss Rebels Ole Miss off
09:29a bye last time they played they knocked off Georgia by double digits it's gonna
09:34take a monumental effort I believe for DJ Lagway and the Gators to pull out
09:39this ballgame against the Rebels. I'm all I'm with you I still I was at that
09:44that Georgia Ole Miss game and I still can't get over how talented they are
09:49defensive line defense the quarterback the wide receivers the entire football
09:53team the way they look that day and Lagway is a freshman going into this
09:58game they're gonna try to put pressure on that quarterback now now I thought he
10:01wouldn't be able to play that I thought he would play last week but that
10:03hamstring would pull him back and then LSU would be able to win because he
10:07couldn't play but he's 100% cured right now and he throws a pass to win the game
10:11you know last week in the last minutes of that football game that they wanted
10:16for him but this one I've got all the Ole Miss has got too much defense they've
10:19got they're gonna run the run the they go throw the ball downfield and Lane
10:24Kiffin I'll guarantee it if he can score some more points in the game he's gonna
10:28score some more points. Oh I agree now I agree a hundred percent you know the line
10:33is up to ten and a half you could see it up there in terms of multiple sports
10:37books across the country the biggest thing I think for Lagway is don't turn
10:41the football over throws from 226 yards last week one touchdown no interceptions
10:46to your point the hamstring was a little bit banged up he didn't run in terms of
10:51the RPO game but they're going up against the front seven in terms of Ole
10:55Miss that's only allowing 79 rushing yards per game we saw them hold and
10:59contain Georgia at all basically 1.9 yards per rush if they bring that type
11:05of effort in terms of run support it's gonna be very difficult for Lagway and
11:09that offense to put up multiple points and scoring drives on Ole Miss and on
11:14the flip side you have an experienced quarterback in Jackson Dart that you
11:18know wants a push tempo right so I mean lower scoring game yeah Ole Miss could
11:23play that that would favor Florida to potentially cover the ten and a half
11:27point number this game gets through the 55 and a half like I expected to I think
11:32it's all Ole Miss and I think they could win this ballgame by 20 or 20 or more I
11:37think that's exactly what happens because I think you talked about the
11:41gameplay it's going to be for Florida try to run that football this is the
11:44wrong team but you won't if you don't run the football you've got to put lag
11:48way back there with facing that pressure and he's a freshman he's gonna make
11:51mistakes so the game plan for Florida is pretty simple somehow we've got to find
11:56a way to run but in accomplishing that is not and I don't think they will
12:00accomplish it and I think you'll see Florida begin to put I think Florida
12:03will have a good game but I think Ole Miss pulls away hit some big plays and
12:08then like I said Lane Kiffin he's he wants some beauty points he'll lay it on
12:12he'll add some more points on the end if he can and that they're gonna go over
12:17in that game that's for sure yeah I agree with that and I think when you
12:20look at it Ole Miss averaging 365 passing yards per game let's push tempo
12:26we know we have the better playmakers to more consistent and veteran quarterback
12:30entering this ballgame let's not get behind and give DJ lag way or that
12:34offense any type of confidence especially playing at home if you are
12:39Billy Napier though right I mean he's answered all the critics up until this
12:43point he gets the extension he has one of the hardest schedules from an SEC
12:48perspective and in terms of all the all the nation for that matter right if he
12:52were to pull out this victory or potentially get to six wins this year he
12:57over exceeds expectations so he could force maybe to open up the playbook
13:01right he could take shots he's playing a little bit with house money in this
13:06ballgame isn't he well yeah because what I think he's got
13:09FSU next week after that I mean and I think that way Florida's playing and
13:14with that quarterback Napier has got a new life at Florida he's got a new life
13:17in Florida I've always said when you get a get the vote of confidence from
13:22the ad you got to hope the ad got a vote of confidence from somebody because
13:25that's usually what they but I think the things that saved Napier one they got
13:29the team turned around their morale the way they're playing they found a great
13:33quarterback this is a quarterback of the future and I think they will get one
13:37more win not this week but next week and get to a bowl then I think now he can
13:42sell he's a really good coach he he was back again it's like every coach in the
13:46country played for me or my dad or my brother somewhere along the line but
13:49Napier started at Clemson with my brother he's done a great coach to get
13:52you when he was at Lafayette I was shocked that he's had a tougher time at
13:56Florida but I think he's gotten through it and I think this is the turnaround
13:59that he needed for that program now we'll see how that game plays out in the
14:03swamp let's turn our attention to the big game Saturday night in Norman
14:08Oklahoma coming out of a bye they open as a 13 and a half point home dog to the
14:12top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide Alabama dismantled the FCS opponent Mercer 52 to
14:197 Oklahoma only allowing coach 109 rushing yards per game Brett Venables
14:24potentially can be live I know it's you know Oklahoma from an offensive
14:29perspective a little inconsistent this year but I like the soonest plus the 13
14:34and a half points Saturday night under the lights I do too I like the points I
14:38like them to get some spread I like to go with Oklahoma Zach Alley their
14:43defensive coordinator was my defensive coordinator at ULM two years ago and
14:47he's a Brent Venables protege he's a he's a he trained under Brent Venables
14:52and they play very good rush defense they're top 20 in the country in rush
14:56defense but the way that Milrow hurt you though Jalen hurts you because he'll
15:01hurt you with scrambles you can't defend his rushing because when he gets to the
15:04edge he out runs people or when he gets back in the back pocket and there's
15:09pressure he breaks a scramble that's when you stop the run that's usually the
15:14kind of runs you don't necessarily stop by game plan and so that's why no matter
15:18what they do I think he's going to get the unconventional yards or the
15:21non-typical rushing yards and scrambles and out running people to the edge where
15:26he's got more speed maybe than anybody on the field you look a couple of weeks
15:29ago against that LSU defense Milrow 12 carries 185 rushing yards four rushing
15:36touchdowns Alabama puts up 311 as a team in over seven yards per rush on the LSU
15:43front seven they get that type of effort against Oklahoma they should cover this
15:47line but I still think it's an under in terms of the 46 and a half I think
15:51Oklahoma will want to try and limit possessions especially with Jackson
15:55Arnold and how important is the week off in terms of preparation not just
16:00defensively defensively but offensively for Oklahoma well I mean obviously
16:05they're gonna get people well this late in the season that's when you want your
16:09bye week where you get people well you get a couple of new wrinkles in your in
16:13your in your game plan but Oklahoma has offensive problems you know I've always
16:17said how in the world they lost that quarterback April how they lost him is
16:21it because the season would have been different but they have some problems
16:25offensively don't score very well you can't really solve that in an off week
16:28diving into the battle on the plains in Auburn Texas A&M opens as a two and a
16:34half point road favorite over the Tigers coach I don't know if you heard the
16:38press conference with Mike Elko this past week but they asked him about
16:41preparation for this matchup he said yeah no problem all eyes are on the
16:46battle in a couple of weeks in Texas is this bulletin board material for the
16:52Tigers this Saturday I guarantee it's bulletin board material although they're
16:57reading on there they're reading on their phones and and laughing about that
17:01he corrected himself almost instantly but once said it's already done more
17:05importantly than that he's going into Auburn to play at one of the
17:09toughest places to play I know a coach there and it's a tough place to play
17:13it's a night game and you got a Marcel Reed a freshman quarterback in
17:18Marcel Reed and buddy they're gonna be into a battle and you wonder why that
17:22that that spots a two and a half but I think it's because of the home
17:27atmosphere and if you go and if you understand the history of that stadium
17:31some of the biggest upsets you've ever saw happen there it's just one of those
17:34places you never know what's gonna happen you don't know what's gonna
17:38happen now I will say from the series perspective A&M did pick up this victory
17:42last year by double digits that was at home in Kyle Field in College Station
17:47last two years ago last time they played on the Plains they lost this
17:52ballgame to Cadillac Williams the interim coach and when Jimbo was there
17:56in terms of one of his last games 13 to 10 that was when Connor Wigman made one
18:01of his first starts on the road so I agree with you something seems to be up
18:05because if we're just looking at this matchup all eyes and the more consistent
18:10offense and defense is Texas A&M but again another head coach in terms of
18:14Hugh Freeze that potentially has to win out this week and next week in the Iron
18:19Bowl just to be bowl eligible I think Auburn could be live I don't love the
18:24matchup but I would take the points with the Tigers but I do feel we get through
18:29the 46 and a half total yeah I mean the leader the but the point spread is so
18:37low I'm gonna stick with them because I think they'll win the game but I will
18:41tell you that tells me something they're both got very good defenses so
18:44you're the under is there I think the under in this game because both of them
18:48gonna lead with their defense I just think Texas A&M's defenses is better and
18:52Auburn's quarterback is worse. In Baton Rouge is Brian Kelly and the LSU Tigers
18:58this line open up at eight and a half points it's now down to seven and a half
19:02across multiple books I don't know if you know this coach but some amazing
19:06statistics for the LSU Tigers they've won nine straight against the Commodores
19:11the last time that Vanderbilt got a win against LSU was back in 1990 I actually
19:17believe Jerry DiNardo was coach back in the day for the Commodores I know you
19:22know Jerry very well. The last victory coach by Vanderbilt in Baton Rouge
19:331951 now I'm just saying this right now I understand Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt
19:40have been underdog killers this year but going into Baton Rouge knowing that
19:45this team has lost back-to-back games last time they got abused by their arch
19:49rival Alabama I know you like Vanderbilt I love LSU I think they win this ball
19:55game by 14 points or more. You know I've looked at this game I've got I'm right
20:00with you I think they get they have a great ball game I think they win by over
20:0314 and I think that they'll stop the bleeding a little bit now nothing's
20:07gonna save the season but that's gonna stop the bleeding but I think this is
20:12gonna be all at all LSU Vanderbilt has kind of slowed down in their production
20:16they play good defense but they've slowed down in their production and they
20:19give up the deep ball. They do now what about Clark Lee you think he's gonna
20:23stay with Vanderbilt he's done a fantastic job transfer portal he's got
20:28players that have fit his scheme and we always see these coaches where they
20:32over exceed expectations at a lesser program they move on to bigger and
20:36better. Kurt Cignetti stays in Indiana for eight years do you feel like Clark
20:41Lee will stay in Nashville? No personally I don't think so you can you
20:46can stay too long you can have a special season or two but the last 50 to 60
20:51years tell you a little bit about something I think you if he gets an
20:54opportunity at a big job he ought to take it just like Dave Clausen at Wake
20:59Forest be careful of staying too long because when you're doing something that
21:02nobody else has done at that place and went above that usually it comes around
21:07and it only lasts so long. Now with NIL I'm not saying that's different my
21:12understanding is that Kurt Cignetti has got a ton of NIL money at Indiana but
21:17Vanderbilt's a very tough academic school and you can't just transfer into
21:22Vanderbilt from an academic standpoint I don't know all those factors but I would
21:26say if history repeats itself he'll succeed and if somebody offers him a
21:31good opportunity he'll take it. In South Beach last time we saw the Miami
21:35Hurricanes play it was a couple of weeks ago against Haynes King and Georgia Tech
21:40Miami was a double-digit favorite in that matchup but on the end in the end
21:45they lost that ballgame 28 to 23 they've had an extra week of preparation they
21:51open now coach against Wake Forest and Dave Clausen as a 24 and a half point
21:57home favorite how do you see this game playing out? No that's a big number for
22:02this game but Miami that hopefully they got the players attention that loss
22:06obviously did a lot now they have to win out they've got a great quarterback but
22:12their defense it's they're not even top half in the FBS the way their defense
22:16has played if they're an outstanding defense camp Ward's got the Heisman
22:20Trophy probably locked up with a defense but now the rest of the team has to come
22:25through the defense especially has to come through because Wake Forest I mean
22:29they're running attack it's a run RPO a running attack that really is hard to
22:33defend they'll they'll score some points and they will stay on the field very
22:38much like Georgia Tech did but I think Miami's got too many weapons they'll
22:41pull away it's gonna be a high scoring game though. Yeah I agree with that now
22:46does have a veteran quarterback in terms of Hank Bachmeier 14 touchdowns 90
22:52interceptions Wake Forest is averaging 27 points per game but the defense is
22:58absolutely atrocious giving up 37 points to opposing offenses so if Cam Ward and
23:04that offense start fast could really put the pressure on Wake Forest to match
23:08them score for score the biggest thing for me is when you look at this matchup
23:12Wake Forest is averaging 257 through the air right Bachmeier can't move the
23:17football rushing attack has been a little inconsistent this season but 24
23:22and a half points coach in terms of the just the spread perspective for me seems
23:26like too many points the pressure is on Miami we saw them step up against Duke
23:31we've seen them play down to the level of competition so I mean I'm inclined to
23:36take the points with Wake Forest not suggesting they win but I do feel they're
23:40within this number. Oh I'm with you all the way up I'm definitely going against
23:45spread with Wake Forest and for the over because I don't think the defense
23:48needs to improve but there Wake Forest gonna put some points on the board and
23:52Miami's gonna put a lot of points on the board I'm just thinking of Miami down
23:56the road I think you know after this game they're gonna they're gonna win
23:59this game I got a bit because the spread so big I got to stay with Wake Forest on
24:03that one and then Miami's got it obviously got Florida State come up next
24:06week but it's kind of like I was talking about Clemson at other time earlier in a
24:12different another segment you wonder how they project into the conference
24:15into the conference championship playoff if they don't play better deep you got
24:19to play great defense toward the end you got to play great defense toward the end
24:22they won't need it this game against Wake Forest. You look at Wake Forest the
24:27past couple of games they lost by 10 points a couple of weeks ago to
24:30California 46 to 36 dropped the game to North Carolina this past weekend by 7
24:37points gave up over 25 points of both of those ballgames and they're allowing
24:41opposing quarterbacks to throw for over 280 passing yards per game that can mean
24:47a big day for Cam Ward and that passing attack for the Hurricanes we'll see how
24:51that plays out. SMU of course very involved in the ACC they are undefeated
24:56in conference play they're going to Virginia this week they are favorites on
25:00the road to take on the Cavaliers Illinois and Rutgers and the Big Ten
25:04UMass and Georgia so Georgia and Tennessee are playing their beat up on
25:09the small teams games this week instead of you know an extra conference game we
25:14could just do those and Kentucky visits Texas 20 and a half for the Longhorns
25:21here this week. Yeah I think Kentucky's been bad this year I think Stoops
25:25believe it or not I know they pay him tons of money but they're kind of awful
25:29at the end of the day I think Texas beats them and Tennessee's gonna destroy
25:35UTEP this is another game the Vols could you know put up 60 like they did at the
25:40beginning of the year Georgia's gonna spank UMass you know I think Illinois is
25:46better than Rutgers the game's in Piscataway so I think they got a shot to
25:50win that game on the road believe it or not and I think Virginia is gonna at the
25:56very least cover in Charlottesville against SMU this Virginia team is better
26:02than people think I mean they beat Pitt in Pittsburgh I think they're decent and
26:08I think SMU is really good no doubt about it let's see if they go on the
26:12road and destroy somebody now this late in the season. Penn State of course needs
26:19to keep winning to keep themselves where they are in the college football playoff
26:23rankings they are in Minnesota against the Gophers this week Gophers have been
26:27all right this year Wisconsin and Nebraska in Lincoln Wofford against
26:32South Carolina Pittsburgh and Louisville and Missouri and Mississippi State with
26:38Missouri the road favorite Stark Vegas I still think Missouri's better than
26:43Mississippi State the game might be better than seven and a half I kind of
26:48like the Tigers here I think Louisville will beat Pitt in Louisville and I think
26:53they'll actually cover that number South Carolina and Wofford I don't know
26:58about you know 42 and a half if they're gonna destroy Wofford I know they get
27:02money for that game and maybe they'll give them a game Wisconsin and Nebraska
27:07I kind of like Nebraska and Lincoln and I like that number with Minnesota in
27:12Minneapolis getting 11 and a half I think PJ Fleck will have the Gophers
27:17ready for Penn State I think Penn State will find a way to win the game and they
27:20won't cover the number

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