Today's Weather, 6 A.M. | Nov. 14, 2024
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NewsTranscript
00:00Good morning, this is the latest update on the Ophel storm
00:05and we also know the latest update on the storm outside our Philippine Area of Responsibility, Tropical Storm Manny.
00:14So as of 5 a.m. Bulletin, we are updated on the weather and the Ophel storm as of 5 a.m. Bulletin.
00:22So we can see here in our latest satellite animation
00:26that we are still monitoring the three storms that are inside and outside our Philippine Area of Responsibility.
00:33So first of all, this is the former storm Nika that currently has no effect on any part of our country
00:40and is already outside our area of responsibility.
00:44This is the Ophel storm that is currently inside the park and has an effect on some parts of our province.
00:51The third storm is Tropical Storm Manny that has an international name
00:57and is currently outside our Philippine Area of Responsibility.
01:02So our main focus for now is the Ophel storm and Manny storm.
01:08So let's know the details about these two storms.
01:11Let's go through them one by one for now.
01:13Let's start with the Ophel storm.
01:16So as of 4 a.m.,
01:18So as of 4 a.m.,
01:19the latest location of the eye of this Ophel storm is Huling na Mataan at an altitude of 215 kilometers
01:25east of Etiague, Isabela,
01:27and it is accompanied by a strong wind that reaches up to 165 kilometers per hour near the middle.
01:34There is an opening that reaches up to 205 kilometers per hour
01:37and moves west-northwestward at a speed of 30 kilometers per hour.
01:42If we see here in our latest satellite image,
01:46the storms brought by the Ophel storm are affected in some parts of Luzon,
01:52especially in areas where the center of the storm is near.
01:57There, you will experience strong winds as well as strong rains brought by the Ophel storm.
02:03So let's know the specific areas where the Ophel storm is affected,
02:09where the strong winds and rains are,
02:12as well as how it will move in the coming days.
02:17So this is our latest track forecast as of 5 a.m.
02:21regarding the Ophel storm that we are monitoring.
02:24If we see, this is the central track of the storm
02:27or how the storm will move in the coming days
02:30while it is inside our Philippine Area of Responsibility
02:34and we also have the intensity forecast
02:36or the strength of the storm or category of the storm
02:39while the areas of the oceans are continuously being monitored inside our PAR.
02:45So we can see here in our latest track forecast,
02:48it moves generally northwestward.
02:50This is the Ophel storm in the coming hours
02:54and we may have a landfall scenario here on the eastern coast of Cagayan.
03:01That will be later in the afternoon if not here in the northern portion of Isabela.
03:06It will continue to move northwestward
03:09and it is possible that it will also approach the area of Babuyan Islands
03:13in the coming hours.
03:15If it does not approach, we may have a second landfall scenario there.
03:20After that, it will move north
03:23and it will gradually recurve
03:25until it continues to weaken here in the eastern coast of Taiwan
03:29and it is possible that it will weaken more as a low-pressure area
03:35and it is possible that it will weaken here inside our Philippine Area of Responsibility.
03:39Although as we can see based on its intensity forecast,
03:43it is possible that it will remain in the typhoon category
03:47while the northern Luzon area is continuously being monitored.
03:51But we remember that the maximum sustained winds of the Ophel storm
03:56is at 165 kmph.
03:59So it is almost at the upper threshold of a typhoon category.
04:03So for now, it is almost at the level or threshold of a super typhoon category
04:10that is at 185 kmph.
04:13So in the event that the conditions are favorable
04:16for the continuous strength of this Ophel storm in the coming hours,
04:20we do not rule out the possibility that it may reach the super typhoon category
04:26in the coming hours.
04:28So based on our latest forecast track,
04:31we can see the shaded area of yellow
04:34where the strong winds brought by the Ophel storm are located.
04:38And if we can notice, some parts of the northern and central Luzon
04:42are now covering the radius or diameter of the Ophel storm.
04:46So in those areas, the strong winds brought by the Ophel storm
04:50will gradually be experienced.
04:52And the shaded area of orange or shaded red
04:56is where the stronger winds brought by the Ophel storm are located
05:00and it is possible that around signal number 3,
05:02the level of the winds is higher.
05:04So because we expect that the Ophel storm will continue to approach
05:09the northern part of Luzon,
05:11the areas that are currently experiencing strong winds
05:14are possible to become stronger in the coming hours.
05:17That is why as of 5 am,
05:19we have raised signal number 4
05:22in the northeastern portion of the mainland,
05:24like in the cities of Santa Ana, Gonzaga, and Santa Teresita.
05:29Signal number 3,
05:31in the northwestern, central, and eastern portions of the mainland of Cagayan,
05:35in the Baboyan Islands,
05:37northeastern portion of Isabela,
05:39northeastern or northern portion of Apayao.
05:42So signal number 3 winds are still present,
05:45like in signal number 4.
05:48Signal number 2 is high in Batanes,
05:51also in the southern part of Cagayan,
05:54in the northwestern and southeastern portions of Isabela,
05:57in the southern part of Apayao,
05:59northern portion of Calinga,
06:02in the northeastern portion of Abra,
06:06and northern and central portions of Ilocos Norte.
06:09And signal number 1 is high in the southern part of Isabela,
06:14in Quirino, Neva Vizcaya,
06:16in the southern part of Abra,
06:18the rest of Calinga,
06:20Mountain Province, Ifugao,
06:22northern portion of Benguet,
06:24in the northwestern part of Ilocos Norte,
06:26Ilocos Sur,
06:28northern portion of La Union,
06:30and northern and central portions of Aurora.
06:33So the areas where our tropical cyclone wind signals are high,
06:37we expect that in the next few hours,
06:40we will be able to experience the strong winds
06:42brought by the typhoon Ophel.
06:45Especially because we expect,
06:47or because we are not removing the possibility
06:50that we will be able to upgrade into a super typhoon category.
06:54We are not removing the possibility
06:56that the highest wind signal
06:59that we will be able to increase in the next few hours
07:01is signal number 5.
07:03Especially in the areas where the center of the typhoon is the closest.
07:07So as much as possible,
07:08be prepared because today
07:11is the peak of the effect of the typhoon Ophel,
07:14especially in the areas of Hilagang Luzon.
07:20When it comes to the rains brought by the typhoon Ophel,
07:24the areas that are still the closest to the center of the typhoon,
07:27will experience the strong rainfall brought by the typhoon.
07:31So in the areas of Cagayan,
07:33as well as Isabela and the Babuyan Islands,
07:36where it will pass,
07:38or near the center of the typhoon,
07:40based on our latest forecast track,
07:42today may experience the intense to torrential rains.
07:47That is more than 200 millimeters
07:50total rainfall for the next 24 hours.
07:53So it is possible for widespread incidents of severe flooding,
07:57as well as landslides,
07:59especially since we have been experiencing rains for several days
08:02in both places.
08:04Meanwhile, heavy to intense rains
08:07that will be experienced in Batanes, Ilocos Norte,
08:10Apayao, and Calinga,
08:12that is 100 to 200 millimeters
08:14total rainfall for the next 24 hours.
08:17And in the areas of Abra,
08:20Mountain Province, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya,
08:23as well as Quirino and Aurora,
08:25may also experience the moderate to heavy rains,
08:29or 50 to 100 millimeters of rains.
08:32So the areas where the possible intense to torrential
08:38or heavy to intense rains are high,
08:40we are being careful because the possibility of floods is high,
08:43as well as landslides.
08:45We repeat, the peak of the effects of this typhoon Ophel
08:50is most likely to be experienced today.
08:52As much as possible, let us prepare and be careful.
08:58This is the possible rainfall starting tomorrow.
09:01We will notice that the areas where the heavy rainfall
09:05will be experienced are reduced,
09:07because most likely the center of this typhoon
09:09has moved to the extreme northern zone.
09:12So the intense to torrential rains
09:14will be experienced tomorrow in the areas of Batanes,
09:17heavy to intense in Cagayan,
09:19along with Babuyan Islands,
09:21and moderate to heavy in Ilocos Norte and Apayao.
09:26When it comes to the state of our seas,
09:29due to the continuous effects of this typhoon Ophel,
09:32we expect it to rise to the very high seas
09:35in the coastal areas of the northern zone,
09:37as well as in the coastal areas of the central zone.
09:40So it is dangerous to sail,
09:42especially in the coastal areas of Batanes,
09:44in Cagayan, along with Babuyan Islands,
09:46as well as in Isabela, Aurora, and Hilagang Karagatan
09:51of Ilocos Norte.
09:52The waves can reach up to 10 meters,
09:56so it is dangerous to sail,
09:58especially for our fishermen
10:01and those who have small fishing boats.
10:05And besides the areas where our gale warning is high,
10:09the seas will also be flooded
10:11in some coastal areas of the Luzon.
10:13The waves can reach up to 3.5 meters
10:17in the coastal areas of Aurora,
10:19Quezon, and Pulillo Islands,
10:21as well as in Ilocos Norte.
10:23And it can reach up to 3 meters
10:25in the coastal areas of Catanduanes,
10:28as well as in the Icamarines provinces.
10:30So be careful,
10:31especially in the coastal areas
10:33of the mentioned coastal areas.
10:36We also have a storm surge
10:39in the coastal areas of Batanes,
10:42in Cagayan, as well as in Ilocos Norte and Isabela.
10:46This means that the sea level in those areas
10:50can rise from 2.1 to 3 meters,
10:55and 1 to 2 meters in Aurora and Ilocos Norte,
11:00as well as in Ilocos Sur.
11:02So be careful, especially in the areas
11:05that are close to the coast.
11:10Let's go to the latest update
11:12on the storm that we are watching
11:14outside our Philippine Area of Responsibility,
11:17Tropical Storm Mani,
11:19which has an international name.
11:21Its latest location as of 3 a.m.
11:23is at 1,480 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas.
11:29This is accompanied by strong winds
11:31that reach up to 85 kilometers per hour
11:33near the middle.
11:34There is a storm that reaches up to 105 kilometers per hour
11:38and moves eastward or westward
11:40at a speed of 30 kilometers per hour.
11:42As of now, there is no direct effect
11:44of Tropical Storm Mani
11:46in any part of our country
11:47as we can see here
11:49in our latest satellite animation.
11:51But we expect that it will approach
11:54our land as quickly as possible
11:56so that we can feel its effect
11:58this coming Friday evening
12:00or the upcoming weekend.
12:02So as much as possible,
12:03let's prepare for the upcoming storm.
12:06So let's know the movement of this storm
12:09and the areas that may be affected
12:12by Tropical Storm Mani.
12:17So this is the latest track forecast.
12:19As of 11 p.m.,
12:21based on its track,
12:23Tropical Storm Mani will generally move westward
12:27and may enter our Philippine Area of Responsibility
12:31later tonight.
12:32We will give it a local name, Pepito.
12:35So this Tropical Storm Pepito,
12:37as it continues to approach our land,
12:40it will continue to be strong
12:42and may reach the Typhoon category
12:45later tonight or the upcoming day.
12:48So we can see here in our central track
12:50that we have a landfall scenario
12:52in a part of the Bicol Region.
12:54This is possible this coming weekend
12:56and it will pass through the southern Luzon
12:59on the upcoming Sunday.
13:03So we can see here
13:05that because Tropical Storm Mani is still in the ocean,
13:08we are not removing the possibility
13:11of a rapid intensification
13:13or rapid strengthening of this storm.
13:16So in the event that the conditions
13:19for Tropical Storm Pepito become favorable,
13:21we are not removing the possibility
13:24that it may reach the Super Typhoon category.
13:27So as much as possible,
13:29we are preparing for the possible arrival
13:32of this storm in the coming days.
13:35Although we can see that our central track
13:37may pass through the Bicol Region,
13:40the scope of the forecast cone of probability
13:44or forecast confidence cone
13:47in our latest forecast track is still wide.
13:50So not only is it possible
13:52or not only in the Bicol Region
13:54to pass through the center of the storm,
13:56it is also possible in the eastern Visayas.
13:58The possible landfall scenario
14:00can also be in Quezon, Aurora,
14:02or it is also possible in Isabela.
14:05So the areas that are shaded in white
14:09can pass through the center of the storm
14:12in the coming days.
14:14So we are continuously monitoring
14:16especially in the areas of the Bicol Region,
14:19in the Visayas,
14:20as well as in the areas of Maropa and Calabarzon,
14:23we can feel the effect of this storm Pepito
14:26or the incoming Pepito this coming weekend.
14:29So as much as possible,
14:30we are preparing for that.
14:33So because we are expecting
14:35that this Mani or Pepito storm
14:37will approach our land,
14:39we are expecting that
14:41we will gradually feel the strong rains
14:44in some parts of Visayas,
14:46as well as in the Bicol Region
14:48in the coming Saturday.
14:50Heavy to intense rains
14:52can be experienced in the northern summer.
14:54And when it comes to Catanduanes,
14:57Albay, Sorsogon,
14:59as well as in the summer and eastern summer,
15:01moderate to heavy rains are possible.
15:05So as much as possible,
15:06if our areas are low-lying areas or hazard-prone,
15:10be careful of the possibility
15:12of flooding or landslides.
15:16That's all for today.
15:17From the Pag-asa Weather Forecasting Center,
15:20we will continue to update
15:21the forecasts and updates of Pag-asa.
15:24Our next Tropical Cyclone Advisory
15:27will be at 11 a.m.
15:29and our next bulletin will be at 8 a.m.
15:32Please visit our social media accounts
15:35and our website pagasa.ust.gov.ph.
15:39That's all for today.
15:40From the Pag-asa Weather Forecasting Center,
15:42I am Rhea Torres.
15:43Good morning.
15:44We will continue to be careful.
15:45Thank you very much.
16:14.