IHSG -1,08% ke 7.136,78 di sesi I Jumat (15/11). Seluruh indeks sektoral melemah. Sektor barang baku -2,50% dikontribusi BRMS -7,69% usai New ATH dan dalam sepekan terakhir anjlok 14,67%, MDKA -2,29%. Sektor energi -2,04% BYAN -4% dan Teknologi -1,60% BUKA -4,84%, GOTO -3,08%.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for staying with us, and in this segment, we will review how the trade has been going
00:11throughout the weekend, where the pressure on the moving of the share price continues.
00:17And we remind you again, you can still participate in our interactive WhatsApp at 0812 at 8788.723,
00:25as shown on your television screen later.
00:27And right now, we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Halim Mintareja,
00:31branch manager of JUC San Antonio, Surabaya.
00:34We will go straight to him. Good afternoon, Mr. Halim. How are you, sir?
00:38I'm fine.
00:40Thank you, Mr. Halim, for spending your time on IDH Channel, sir.
00:44It doesn't feel like we're back at the end of the week.
00:47And it looks like the pressure on the moving of the share price continues to this day.
00:52Your analysis, especially for the moving of the share price today, sir,
00:56the intraday share price was weakening above 1%,
01:00but this weakness has been overcome, even though the IHSG is still at 7,100.
01:06Yes, the IHSG has been under pressure this week,
01:13but today, the last two days, there seems to be resistance, especially in the blue chip.
01:19Even though it's still going down, but indicators like MACD are starting to diverge.
01:24And foreign net sales in the big cap stocks are starting to decrease.
01:29These last two days have made the IHSG a bit weak,
01:34especially in the blue chip, which has dropped a lot,
01:37such as BUMI and BUMI Resources and ANI.
01:40But on the other hand, the banking sector is starting to have resistance,
01:45such as BCA, which has risen in the last two days.
01:48Then Mandiri has also started to stabilize.
01:50So in the future, if it continues to be stable like this,
01:53maybe there will be a technical rebound,
01:57while waiting for the dollar to finish strengthening.
02:01Okay, for next week, where will it go, sir?
02:04With some indicators that have been mentioned earlier,
02:07and there is a potential for a technical rebound.
02:11Yes, the decline is not far away.
02:16The decline seems to be getting closer.
02:18The decline, especially in the blue chip, has started to be quite deep again.
02:26And there may be a rebound.
02:28But we also have to pay attention to the US dollar, the Rupiah.
02:32If the Rupiah can strengthen again,
02:39maybe the index can rebound back to the MA200,
02:43to the moving average 200, to the minimum 7,300,
02:46to the moving average 5, to the 7,250.
02:48If it can go back there,
02:50maybe the strengthening can continue until the end of the year.
02:53Okay, this week, the joint index has weakened by 1.61%, sir.
03:00Three months at 3.24%, year-to-date has weakened by 1.42%.
03:05Looking at the joint index position,
03:08it's back to the 7,100,
03:10if we compare it to the highest intraday level ever achieved before.
03:15Will this condition affect the ISK target until the end of the year,
03:19leaving at least one and a half months of trading ahead?
03:25At the end of the year, yes.
03:26If the target is around 7,400, 7,500, 7,500, it can still be.
03:32But if it's back to the all-time high, maybe it's a bit heavy.
03:35Unless there is a sudden sentiment like a drastic Rupiah increase.
03:41For example, with the FED position,
03:43the card rate is maybe only once every two meetings,
03:46maybe it's a bit heavy.
03:47But overall, in the short term,
03:51maybe there will be technical rebound in the next 1-2 weeks.
03:54Okay.
03:55But to reach the high is a bit heavy.
03:58Okay.
03:59Mr. Halim, on the sectoral movement,
04:02you also mentioned earlier that
04:04some stocks that were previously high
04:07have experienced a deep correction today.
04:09Especially the stocks in the steel goods sector, sir.
04:12There are BRMS, Antam, MDKA, and TINZ
04:17that are also becoming a burden for the Asamkabungan family.
04:21How do you see this position?
04:23Did the profit-taking happen after the stock price was previously high?
04:27Then, from a fundamental point of view,
04:29coincidentally, from some community prices,
04:31there was quite a deep pressure in the last few weeks.
04:36Yes, that's right.
04:38The reason is because of that.
04:39BRMS, in the last week,
04:42can be said to have risen quite a lot.
04:44Since last month, it was around Rp190,000.
04:46This week, it can reach up to Rp500,000.
04:49Maybe the increase is so much that it causes profit-taking.
04:52Profit-taking that is quite massive.
04:54And in Belgrade Group,
04:56almost everyone experienced profit-taking as a result of the increase.
04:59Then, sectors such as gold
05:07were also corrected internally,
05:08as well as the strengthening of the US dollar.
05:10Steel, mannequin, everything was also corrected.
05:12And the uncertainty of China's stimulus also has an effect.
05:15So, the strengthening of metal has become in the opposite direction.
05:20Previously, because of China's stimulus,
05:23China's stimulus was unclear.
05:25So, there are two pressures.
05:28So, the strengthening of the US dollar and the weakening of the US dollar.
05:30And China's stimulus was successful.
05:33Okay, we will try to review from a technical point of view, sir.
05:35For BRMS, today it is still weak,
05:39but the weakening has also begun to break.
05:41Earlier, it was weakening above 7%.
05:44Now, it is trying to get back to the level of 400, 398.
05:48Mr. Halim, there is a question on our interactive WhatsApp.
05:51I will try to read it.
05:53The question comes from Mrs. Liana,
05:55who happens to be from Surabaya, sir.
05:57She asks, how much can BRMS buy?
06:01At the moment, the weakening has been recommended to enter, sir.
06:04The ideal entry level.
06:06Or is there still room for further weakening for BRMS?
06:09For entry in BRMS, maybe for a short period of time, yes.
06:12We can try.
06:14The support earlier, the first support,
06:16today's low was 360.
06:18But after the rebound, maybe the support will go up a little.
06:21Around 370-380.
06:24But is it safe or not?
06:26It's best to wait until it makes the new low first.
06:28Because the profit taking is quite massive.
06:30And the resistance is not far, around 400-420.
06:34Yes, maybe 420.
06:36So, if you want to enter,
06:38it's best to look for the same first,
06:40around 310.
06:42Fibonacci 50.
06:44But for the current entry level,
06:47the upset is a bit limited.
06:49Yes.
06:50Okay.
06:51Is there a chance to break through to the highest level again
06:54when the scenario you mentioned earlier,
06:56resistance, demi-resistance,
06:58can be surpassed next for BRMS?
07:02It's a bit difficult,
07:04because the volume is quite large,
07:06the volume of this drop.
07:08So, to go back up again,
07:10it's a bit difficult,
07:12to go back up to 500.
07:14Okay, the support is quite wide,
07:16earlier you said 310.
07:18Today's closing at 398,
07:20weakening at 4.33%.
07:22It has not been recommended,
07:24more towards WNC first.
07:26And again, the investment decision is still in the hands of Adia Channel.
07:29From BRMS, sir, we move on to Antam,
07:32for other stocks.
07:34Where Antam,
07:36weakening at 4.73%,
07:38a bit limited, because today's intraday,
07:40Antam was weakening above 5%, sir.
07:43Analysis and recommendations,
07:45for Antam, today's intraday,
07:47it was around 1,300, Mr. Halim.
07:49Antam, yes, Antam,
07:51the nickel is quite deep,
07:53it can be said, the decline,
07:55from around 18,000 to below.
08:00Hello, Mr. Halim.
08:03Yes, for Antam,
08:05we are waiting,
08:07Mr. Halim, to rejoin,
08:09weakening at 4.73%.
08:11In today's closing position,
08:14Antam was closed at level 1,410.
08:17Intraday, Antam,
08:19was weakening at 5%.
08:21In the closing of the second session,
08:23it was weakening at 4.73%,
08:25at 1,410.
08:27And earlier it was mentioned,
08:29related to the nickel position of Antam,
08:33it used to be above 1,500,
08:38at 4.73%,
08:40at 1,410 for Antam.
08:43Mr. Halim, have you joined us, sir?
08:46Yes, I have.
08:48Okay, Mr. Halim, you were disconnected,
08:50let's continue again,
08:51your analysis and recommendations,
08:53for Antam, support and resistance.
08:55The support and resistance,
08:57maybe at MA200, around 1,470,
08:59and if it passes, around 1,530.
09:02The sentiment is quite good next week,
09:04because the gold has a chance to rebound,
09:07and the nickel is also oversold.
09:09Last week it started to rebound.
09:12What is your recommendation for Antam,
09:14at what level?
09:16It can be bought at this level,
09:18or if it goes down again,
09:20it can also be around 1,350,
09:22the previous low.
09:24So don't overdo it.
09:27Okay, today it went down at 4.73%,
09:29at 1,350 for Antam.
09:32MDKA, sir, briefly for MDKA.
09:35MDKA is a bit heavy,
09:37because the fundamentals are lacking in support.
09:40If you already have MDKA,
09:42maybe you can consider holding it,
09:44and take advantage of the rebound sentiment next week
09:47to sell on strength around 2,400.
09:50Okay, in your recommendation,
09:54not to pursue the 2,400 position?
09:57You should look for something else.
10:00Is it too risky, Mr. Halim?
10:03First, the financial report is not good,
10:06and second, the dependency is only gold.
10:09The dependency is only gold,
10:11and the gold is in poor condition.
10:13There is no diversification?
10:15There is a diversification,
10:17but the financial report is not good,
10:19it is still minus.
10:21MDKA has not been recommended by the auditors.
10:24There is a chance for 2,400 for MDKA,
10:27but in that position,
10:29it is more recommended to sell on strength,
10:31and for those who just want to enter,
10:33it is still too risky.
10:35Today's closing at 2,110,
10:37weakening at 3.21%.
10:39From the raw materials, Mr. Halim,
10:41we will try to go to the financial sector, sir.
10:44Like it or not, like it or not,
10:46this is a backup bank,
10:47every day we will discuss, sir,
10:49the capitalization is also a determining factor
10:51for the development of the family estate.
10:53I want to go to the BBCA, sir.
10:55Today, it seems the most resilient,
10:57able to survive in the green zone,
10:59even though it was suppressed to 10,050.
11:02How do you see the BBCA's position
11:04from the sentiment side,
11:05which will divide the interim dividend, Mr. Halim?
11:08The BBCA is quite good,
11:10the growth is quite okay,
11:12and when other assets are suppressed,
11:14it can still survive above the moving average of 200.
11:17So the BBCA, besides the solid fundamentals,
11:19technically it is still solid,
11:21according to the fundamentals.
11:25But the long term is okay,
11:28only because of the solid,
11:30maybe the assets are not as many as others.
11:34But it's safe enough to be collected.
11:36The recommendation, support and resistance, and entry?
11:39The recommendation of the BBCA,
11:41if you want to enter,
11:42maybe you can buy on the basis of around 10,100.
11:45The stop loss is below MA200 at 9,950,
11:49at least below that.
11:51The profit margin is around 10,300 to 10,600.
11:55Overall, this is still good,
11:57and maybe it will be benefited,
11:59maybe this will be the leader
12:01if there is a rebound next week.
12:04Okay.
12:05The sentiment of the dividend divider
12:07will not affect the BBCA's movement?
12:10It has an effect, but it's small,
12:12because the dividend is not only 50 rupiahs,
12:15it's not big enough to be a sentiment.
12:17Okay.
12:18A bigger sentiment of strengthening the rupiah,
12:20if it happens next week.
12:22What is your target for the BBCA
12:24until the end of the year,
12:26leaving some stocks ahead?
12:28The BBCA has also previously...
12:30Maybe it can touch the all-time high again.
12:32The BBCA, if the rupiah supports,
12:34the BBCA is below 15,800,
12:36maybe the BBCA can touch the all-time high again.
12:39Yes.
12:41Okay.
12:42Analysis for the BBCA,
12:44the dividend today is able to survive in the green zone,
12:47still strong at 0.25%.
12:50I want to go to the BBRI, sir.
12:52Where is the pressure for the BBRI?
12:54It looks deeper compared to other big cap banks.
12:57Analysis and recommendations,
12:59although on the side of the stock market,
13:01the stock market, the increase in the stock market,
13:03is the biggest energy position
13:05compared to several other big cap banks.
13:09In the BBRI, technically,
13:12even though ASIC is still a net sale,
13:14this is one of the stocks that is most often sold by ASIC.
13:17Almost every day, ASIC sells.
13:19Technically, there has been some improvement.
13:22For the past 3-4 days, it has not made a new low again.
13:25So there is a possibility of a rebound.
13:27Temporary support at 4,370,
13:33the previous low.
13:35The possibility of a rebound is quite large.
13:37But maybe the target is normal.
13:42Maybe the target is around 4,700,
13:454,700 to 4,800,
13:47a maximum of 5,000.
13:49Okay.
13:50How do you see the technical position for the BBRI
13:53in the middle of a fairly deep weakness?
13:57BBRI.
13:58Although the weakness is quite deep,
14:00as I said earlier,
14:02overall, the resistance is MAGD is already positive.
14:06Divergent.
14:07I mean, even though the price keeps going down,
14:10but the pressure is already much less.
14:13It only needs a trigger.
14:15It only needs a trigger to strengthen the Rupiah.
14:17The sector can rebound very quickly.
14:22Okay.
14:23Analysis for today's BBRI review
14:26is a burden for the joint stock price index.
14:31Overall, how do you see
14:35the chance for a rebound from Samsung to hold the BBRI,
14:38at least in early 2025?
14:41If it's early 2025, maybe it's still...
14:44Overall, everyone is still waiting for the government's policy,
14:48whether it's the Trump administration or the Obama administration.
14:51How do they manage their economy?
14:54How can we stimulate the middle class again
14:59so that they can spend again,
15:01even with the increase in wages or other stimulus?
15:04But overall, we still need an explanation.
15:08After that, we will analyze it again.
15:10Okay.
15:12But overall, the key is the strengthening of the Rupiah.
15:15It seems that for the beginning of the year,
15:18maybe the sentiment is good,
15:19because the USD usually weakens at the end of the year and until the beginning of the year.
15:23December and January, the USD usually weakens.
15:28So in the short term, the sentiment is positive for the rebound.
15:33Okay.
15:34Today, the BBRI weakens at 0.44%.
15:37At 4,480,
15:40some of today's pick-up stocks became a burden.
15:44But indeed, the potential of the weakening is somewhat limited.
15:48The BBNI, which previously weakened above 1%,
15:51is now weakening at 0.61%.
15:54The BBNI today also became a burden at 4,920.
15:59And again, the investment decision is still in the hands of the IDA channel.
16:08Mr. Halim, for some of the other stocks that today remain in the green zone,
16:15there is Telkom.
16:16Today is a reversal.
16:17Telkom previously touched its position in the last few years for Telkom.
16:24But later we will continue.
16:25We will stop for a while.
16:27Later we will see what Samsung Filin recommends.
16:30And we will be back soon.