• 10 hours ago
Transcript
00:00And a preview of the Sunday slate with our pick six. Again,
00:07our pick six stands as such. Favorite touchdown scorer of
00:11the weekend. Somebody to hit Pater and cash a ticket.
00:14Moneyline underdog to pull off the outright upset. Our
00:18favorite under of the weekend. A game we see with limited
00:21scoring. An alt line, a couple of plus money prices, a yardage
00:26prop, somebody to go over a number that is set and then we
00:29combine forces for a two leg six point teaser. One of these
00:33days, we'll make it work but they call it a teaser for a
00:36reason. It should be easy. It oftentimes is not. Anyway,
00:41Geroneri, your favorite anytime touchdown scorer of the weekend
00:45is who and in what game? Yeah, I'm gonna go to the Kansas City
00:51Chiefs and Carolina Panthers and I'll go with Travis Kelsey
00:55getting back into the end zone after the bills took him out of
01:00there last week here. I just don't see the Panthers line
01:03backers and safeties doing anything against them. I think
01:08it'll be old reliable. Carolina's allowed seven
01:11touchdowns to tight ends already this year and I think he'll have
01:16a field day in this game. I do think Kelsey will find pay dirt
01:21rather easily in this one. Yeah, I like that look at a
01:25plus 115 price. Mike Bluett mentioned it. The upgrade, not
01:29upgrade but the increased offensive production for
01:32Travis Kelsey in the last month after a slow start to the year
01:36at times. I like the number, Joe. I also like the number for
01:40my favorite anytime touchdown scorer. It's Tyreek Hill. He
01:43scored two consecutive or he scored a touchdown in two
01:46consecutive games and honestly, Joe, when I went to look at
01:49this because we have discussed this a few times. The numbers
01:52have been so wonky on Tyreek Hill who led the league in
01:56receiving touchdowns a year ago because of the injury to the
01:59quarterback to a tongue of Iloa even as he made his return and
02:04still felt a little bit uncertain that at times you got
02:06Tyreek Hill at a number that you could have never got him at a
02:10year ago. Minus 140, minus 160, minus 175 because of how often
02:15Tyreek Hill was scoring touchdowns. Well, up until two
02:19weeks ago, he'd only scored in the very first game of the year
02:22for Miami. Now, he has scored in two straight. I actually
02:25expected minus 110 or so. Still at plus 105. I think the
02:30Dolphins have a good day at home against the Patriots and I
02:33think Tyreek Hill hits paydirt. Yeah, I agree with you. I do
02:37think it if it ain't broke, don't fix it and Tua and Tyreek
02:42and Miami have owned New England and they're gonna own
02:46them again this weekend here, Ben. Without a doubt, he will
02:49find the end zone against that past defense. So, both some
02:54plus money in our touchdown score. How about some more plus
02:57money and a money line underdog and when I say both, it means
03:01we are thinking the same thing. We have the same money line
03:05underdog to win outright on Sunday. In transparency,
03:09there's not many great money line spots. A lot of spreads at
03:13six, seven, or even higher than that. Joe, we're focused on
03:18the Windy City. We're both on the Bears. How does Chicago
03:22pull off the outright upset over the Vikings on Sunday
03:25afternoon? Well, they do it because they have one of the
03:30second, I believe against the pass is that defense of the
03:33Bears going up against Sam Darnold. Listen, you beat the
03:37Bears by being able to run the ball and Minnesota can't run
03:41the ball. Aaron Jones has been hurt over the last month. Cam
03:46Akers not doing a great job here. I don't see them
03:50especially with Darryl Shaw going down on the offensive
03:53line for the Vikings. That was a big loss here. I think the
03:56Bears defense is the reason you wanna back him here, Ben,
04:00because the third road game in a row for Minnesota and Sam
04:04Darnold. I liked enough of what I saw last week with the new
04:07guy calling plays that I like the chances of Chicago being
04:11able to win this game out, right? Yeah, me as well, Joe.
04:15Four wins for the Bears this year. Three at home, one in
04:19London. At least it wasn't a true road game. Two covers as
04:23an underdog this year. Last week at home against the
04:26Packers as that offense showed some life with the interim OC
04:30in Thomas Brown and outright as a slight underdog against the
04:34Jags in London. All to say, when they're not playing a true road
04:40game, the Bears look better and I'm not asking for them to
04:44look fantastic but just to knock off a Vikings team and
04:48win outright. I thought about the Rams. I really trust in the
04:51Eagles. That's a Sunday night game in SoFi. I do believe LA
04:55is live. Don't know if I think they win outright although they
04:59must really to kinda stay in the race. The NFC West more
05:03important for Los Angeles. Again, Joe, not many other
05:06great spots on the Sunday slate unless you believe in
05:10Tommy DeVito, you believe in Drake May, every other game
05:14except the two that we mentioned. Sunday night and
05:18this one here in Chicago and then you can include the
05:21Packers in Lambeau against the Niners. That game very
05:25uncertain because of injury status for San Francisco. Every
05:28other game, five and a half points or more that sees a true
05:32underdog because there is a pick them and that's not really
05:36a money line underdog in Seattle between the Cardinals
05:40and the Seahawks but we'll talk more about that game and the
05:43rest of the Sunday slate is week twelve pick six continues.
05:46Our NFL week twelve pick six continues on live on this
05:50football Friday on the early line on Sports Grid. We have
05:54given you our favorite touchdown score and our favorite
05:56money line underdog. Don't worry if you're just tuning in
05:58for the first time. We'll recap everything before we end out the
06:02show in our final segment next up but next up in the pick six
06:06is our favorite under of the weekend points at a premium.
06:10Joe, where do you go? Yeah, points definitely at a premium
06:15and I just don't think we're going to get a whole lot of
06:17them. I'm looking at that Giants and Tampa Bay game here,
06:22Brad. I mean, if you listen, if it ain't Broglie fixing it and
06:26quite honestly, the idea that Tommy Cutlets is going to step
06:29in and beat up a Tampa Bay defense that now under Todd
06:34Bowles has had a extra week to prepare. I think it's ludicrous.
06:38We saw this guy already a year ago, Ben average about twelve
06:43points. The Giants and the offensive line wasn't any good
06:46then. It's not any good now. The thing the Giants do have
06:50though that they were better at than a year ago is their
06:53defense and I do think even though Mike Evans is slated to
06:57come back. It's a cold day. It's a windy day at Met Live
07:00Stadium. Not ideal conditions. Tampa is going to win this game
07:04but Tampa is going to have to work for it. I don't see us
07:07getting forty-two points or more here. I think the under for
07:11me is the only way I'd look to play this game. Yeah, the
07:15Buccaneers did stay under in their most recent game against
07:18the San Francisco 49ers entering the bye. Good news for
07:22the Bucs in a season defined by injury unfortunately as well.
07:26Mike Evans back at practice. There's one thing Joe to be
07:29said about the Tommy Cutlet sensation right and what Tommy
07:32DeVito was able to do in his six games as a starter a year
07:36ago going three and three but once the book is out on a
07:40quarterback that let's just call it like it is a little bit
07:42limited as a starting caliber quarterback in the NFL defenses
07:48start to make their adjustments. You can kind of
07:50sweep the nation early on because nobody really has the
07:53game film on you. Once you have some time to prepare and
07:58both teams have come off the bye. It makes it a little bit
08:01more difficult. I lean under Joe Cardinals and Seahawks in
08:05the Northwest on Sunday 47 and a half. I know you see it
08:09slightly differently but it's a pick them and I actually like
08:12Arizona to win the game outright and one of the reasons
08:15I think the Cardinals have been playing better football
08:17winners of five of the last six and four consecutive. They've
08:20gone under in three of those four games, allowing 15 points
08:24or less in all three. They've gone under in four of their
08:28last five wins. Arizona has allowed just 15 total points in
08:33their last two games. Alright, who are they playing the Bears
08:36and the Jets? I understand it, but at times I think Seattle
08:41has been a little bit careless with the football is how I
08:46would describe Gino Smith and the Seahawks did go over in
08:50five of their first six games. Joe now under in four
08:54consecutive. I know we see this game a little bit differently,
08:56but if you had to pick a winner for Sunday in Seattle, who do
09:00you like? Yeah, it's it's tough. I mean I would certainly
09:05lean Arizona here, but II do think this is the kind of game
09:10at home with Gino Smith that somehow or another he figures
09:14out a way and wills his team and gets the W here. It would
09:19certainly be a consideration to tease Arizona or Seattle up
09:24and over the touchdown. If you were looking at that way, this
09:28series has been a dead under over the last couple of years,
09:32but something tells me healthy on the offensive side now for
09:36Seattle and the points that Arizona's capable of putting up.
09:41This feels like an over to me here, Ben. Listen, it might be
09:45it very well might be. I think it's going to be a great game.
09:48It's impactful. Nonetheless, in the Northwest, Arizona, the
09:52only team with a winning record in the NFC West and now a
09:55divisional minus money favorite because San Francisco has their
09:59injury woes. Seattle is five and five. The Rams five and five
10:03as well. Alt line of the weekend. Let's find those prices
10:08out there. Joe, where do you start? Well, the outline for me
10:12is to go to a game in which I think is going to be absolute
10:15blowout city, and I think that's Miami at home taking on
10:18New England. I mean, listen, it's not hard to figure out
10:22under Mike McDandles and to the Miami Dolphins punched down
10:27better than anybody in the league. Just look at what they
10:30did to the Raiders a week ago. We just saw this New England
10:35defense give up four touchdown passes to a LA Rams team that
10:40had to travel across the country. Stafford picked them
10:43apart. Tua is going to pick this team apart. That's what
10:49they do. I got him over two or more touchdown passes. I think
10:54this is a huge game for Tua, maybe even multiple touchdowns
10:58to Tyreek Hill, but I think Waddle gets involved. I think
11:02Tua has a monster game. He owns New England, guys. He has owned
11:07them since he's been in the league. I think he owns them
11:09again on Sunday. Let's get a little bit crazy then with that
11:13all line three plus passing touchdowns for Tua Tungabailoa
11:17is plus 280. Again, expected to throw two to add on just one
11:22more plus 280. I agree, Joe. The Dolphins also as a favorite
11:27since the start of last year, 13 and four against the spread.
11:33Miami expected to beat a team, often does, and they often do
11:37so in decisive fashion. My all line Broncos, Raiders, over
11:4244 and a half at plus 142. Mike Blewett mentioned it, that the
11:48Raiders feel like they're off the skids. Are they not already
11:52off the skids? They have lost six consecutive games, and Joe,
11:56because of that, the defense looks atrocious, but they're
12:00scoring enough points to keep games to the over. The Raiders
12:04have gone over in five of six games. They have allowed 27
12:07points at least in all five of these overs on the six-game win
12:12streak, including 34 to the Denver Broncos just over a
12:17month ago. The total in that game was 36 and a half. We
12:21finished with 52 points, 34-18, the victory for Denver, and as I
12:26said, the Broncos have been great as a cover team, but
12:29great as a favorite. Four and oh against the spread when
12:33expected to win a football game over in three of four. The only
12:38under last week, Joe, against the Falcons, and that wasn't
12:41because of the Broncos. They scored 38 points. Let's get
12:45crazy. Over 44 and a half in Las Vegas on Sunday at plus
12:50142. Two more picks in the pick six. A yardage prop. We
12:56combine forces for our six-point two-leg teaser. We
13:00recap everything for you to send you into the football
13:03weekend. Up next on The Early Rock. A couple of spots in the
13:06Sunday Week 12 pick six for the National Football League. Joe
13:10Ranieri and I have seen things in a similar fashion. That
13:14would include our yardage props for the weekend as well,
13:17focusing on what should be a great game in the afternoon
13:20slate there in Seattle between the Seahawks and the Cardinals.
13:24Again, it is a pick them. It could decide the fate of the
13:27top spot in the NFC West. So we go to the Northwest, Joe, and
13:32we're both looking at a yardage prop for the Cardinals utilizing
13:37legs. You go first. Yeah, I'm going to look at Kyler Murray
13:42here, Ben, who has pretty much this number just stuck out to
13:47me given the fact that he averages at least seven rushes
13:50for 47 yards in his career versus the division rival here
13:55in Seattle. In fact, he has rushed for 60 or more yards
13:59against them three times. This feels like at this point in the
14:04season, very playoff-esque type. Fresh off a bye week
14:09here, and I don't know. The Seattle run defense has had all
14:13sorts of issues here. I mean, we just watched Brock Purdy run
14:16five times for 40 yards last week. Yeah. So I am not sure
14:20why it is Murray, who has actually gone over this in four
14:24of his last five games against them. No reason for him not to
14:29get at least another 30 to 40 yards on the ground in this
14:32one. That's the way I'm looking for an over prop. And that
14:36number on the uptick as well. Now 29 and a half, Joe. It's the
14:40same spot I looked at another number caught by eye. That's
14:43James Conner at only 68 and a half rushing yards. To your
14:46point, the Seahawks are still the sixth worst rushing defense
14:50in the National Football League. I looked at Christian
14:52McCaffrey going over his combo prop last week. He didn't quite
14:56get there despite having 106 scrimmage yards because he was
15:00stuck on 80 rushing yards for a while against Seattle. If
15:05James Conner gets 80, he's well over his prop on Sunday
15:09against the Seahawks and in the two divisional games that
15:12Arizona has played this season. Both wins by the way is the
15:16Cardinals are the favorites to win the NFC West James Conner
15:19122 yards against the Rams 86 against San Francisco. I think
15:25it's a heavy ground attack for this Arizona team on Sunday
15:29over Kyla Marie over James Conner. Now we combine forces
15:35for our two leg six point teaser. The Niners spurned me
15:38last week, Joe, keeping us from what would have been success.
15:42Let's wait. I didn't have the Niners last week at the Niners
15:45two weeks ago. We won last week. I had the packs when I was
15:49asking. I had we had the Bengals. So we had the Bengals
15:54and we had the Packers Bengals seven and a half and the same
15:57thing with the Packers. That's a winner, my man. That's a
16:00winner. Oh my god. Here I am thinking we're worse at our job
16:04than we are. Great stuff, Joe. Alright, let's keep it rolling
16:07then. Two straight teaser picks that we are going to hit for
16:11you week in week out and Joe again, rather similar fashion
16:15looking at around a touchdown favorite on Sunday basically
16:20bringing them down to a pick to just win the game outright. Who
16:23is your first leg of our two leg teaser? To me, it's all if
16:27it ain't broke, don't fix it. It's Miami at home. I don't
16:31often like to come down in this year but they are the home team
16:37and the history of two against this team has been unreal. Not
16:41to mention the buzz around Miami is huge, Ben. Listen, they
16:45have a very favorable schedule including this game against New
16:49England. They still have an outside shot at making a run in
16:52a wild card spot here. They know it. The media knows it and
16:57they have no more room for error. So, I anticipate they
17:01will do what they always do against less than teams and they
17:04will beat the snot out of them. So, I'll take it down to a
17:07point, point a half and I'll back Miami. Yeah, I agree with
17:11that look as well. Joey mentioned how good the Dolphins
17:14are as a favorite in the last year plus. The Texans not so
17:18great as a favorite but I don't think they lose on Sunday at
17:21home to the Titans. Why do I say that? Well, Houston's a
17:24seven and a half point home favorite against the bad
17:26Tennessee team that's just two and eight and has not covered
17:30in any of its eight losses. So, if Houston wins, thus, they can
17:35win outright by a point and a half and a good teaser spot.
17:39Alright, quickly, Joe. Fifty seconds left in our show. Run
17:42through your pick six. I'll do the same. Alright, going with
17:46anytime touchdown, Travis, Kelsey, the Bears are gonna be
17:49my money line underdog. I'm going to under Giants Tampa
17:53Bay. I'm going to a two or even three or more touchdown passes
17:58for the alt line. Kyler Murray over his rushing prop and of
18:01course, Miami is my teaser leg. Alright, I go Tyreek Hill to
18:06find Peter for a third straight game. Bears money line as well
18:09against the Vikings. Card Seahawks under forty-seven and
18:12a half. Broncos Raiders alt over forty-four and a hook.
18:16James Conner over his rushing yards prop and the Texans. My
18:19leg of that two-leg teaser.

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