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00:00We welcome you to our number two of this Tuesday live right here on the early line.
00:06Maybe it's a Tuesday in the calendar, but it's the final day of 2024.
00:11New Year's Eve is what we call it, or in other words, a day.
00:16Read the shirt once again for college football, period.
00:22Yeah, that's right.
00:23Five college football games at the FPS level on this final day of 2024.
00:29Four in ball season and our fifth and final to ring in a new year.
00:35It's the start of the quarterfinal round of the college football playoff.
00:39The Fiesta Ball tonight out in the desert between the three seed Boise State and the six seed Penn State.
00:45Joe, so much to get to here in this second hour.
00:48We set the stage for the final eight teams still in the Chase Ray National Championship
00:53in the first ever 12 team college football playoff.
00:57We will also talk more about the NFL getting you ready for week number 18.
01:02Golf season starts this Saturday on the PGA Tour.
01:06Saturday starts this Thursday on the PGA Tour with the Century Championship out on the Hawaiian Islands.
01:12Keith Stewart will be back on the show.
01:15So much to get into here in this second hour.
01:18Yeah, a little something for everyone, Ben, as we look to turn the page on 2024.
01:23Welcome in 2025.
01:26Exciting stuff.
01:27And we still have, I mean, what, four weeks of college football?
01:32Three weeks.
01:33So I'm all for it.
01:35Let's go.
01:36We're not done, man.
01:37Three weeks from yesterday is the national championship game.
01:41There's a lot of time now in the biggest field in the most teams with the most wins necessary
01:48to claim a national championship in college football in the history of this sport.
01:54So thus history continues on this Tuesday night on New Year's Eve to ring in 2025
02:02before a triple header of CFP action comes your way tomorrow on New Year's Day.
02:08It is New Year's Eve.
02:09It is a party that will be the case out in Glendale, Arizona,
02:14for the Fiesta Bowl between Penn State and Boise State.
02:18It's the first game of the quarterfinal round.
02:21There you see the matchups.
02:22It starts with the Fiesta Bowl tonight.
02:24Then we go to the Peach Bowl in Atlanta, Arizona State, and Texas,
02:28our largest spread of the CFP quarterfinal round.
02:31And then two heavyweight showdowns to end out New Year's Day.
02:35The granddaddy of them all, the rematch between Oregon and Ohio State
02:40in a sugar bowl in the Big Easy.
02:42Would love to visit that city sometime between Georgia and Notre Dame.
02:47What a round we have in this historic bracket.
02:51The first ever 12-team college football playoff.
02:55Joe, I think the natural question as we look at the bracket
02:58after we saw blowouts in our four opening round games,
03:02every game decided by at least two touchdowns.
03:05On campus for the first time where home teams took advantage,
03:09home teams booked as a favorite, everybody laying at least a touchdown.
03:13And those home favorites were a perfect 4-0 against the spread
03:18with an average margin of victory of 19.3 points per game.
03:22So, again, I think the natural question begs,
03:25will the quarterfinal round be closer, including our first two games,
03:29starting tonight in the Fiesta Bowl?
03:33Yeah. Unfortunately, they won't.
03:36And I think they won't here, Ben, because we've talked about it.
03:40I mean, listen, I do think you have 12 teams that deserve to be there.
03:46The most deserving.
03:48I still would like to get to a situation where we just have the 12 best teams
03:53in the country, but that's going to take a little time.
03:56And I think this is where the seeding comes into play, Ben,
04:00because much like what we talked about last week in the blowouts
04:04and how is Ohio State an eight seed, and that's what you get Oregon
04:09for being the number one seed at this point,
04:12I think they will eventually get the seeding correctly.
04:15But until then, we've got blowouts ready to go here.
04:19I mean, there are levels to this, Ben.
04:21We've talked about it, right?
04:22The SMUs of the world are not the Penn States of the world.
04:26And Boise State, once again, great year, deserving to be here,
04:31number three seed, but congratulations.
04:34Your gift is that you get to take on the number five defense in the nation.
04:39And, yeah, you're going to get blown out like most teams usually do
04:45who are not of this caliber here.
04:47I mean, Penn State's averaging 38 points a game here, Ben.
04:51The offense is humming.
04:53They're great stacking the box up against the run.
04:57I don't think Boise State can compete, but I do think they can score enough
05:01to help us get this thing flying over the total at the Fiesta Bowl.
05:05Most Fiesta Bowls are usually shootouts.
05:08I don't think this one's going to be any different,
05:10only I think Penn State will eventually cover this game.
05:13But I think we fly over the total as well.
05:16And that's been a big part of it as well, Joe, for a Nittany Lions team.
05:20When expected to win a game under James Franklin, they often do,
05:24and they are pretty darn good.
05:26I caution everybody, please, please, please,
05:29it's probably not going to work with some of the takes
05:31that we will see tonight on social media.
05:34But remember how the college football playoff has always played out.
05:40Even our semifinal games in the 10-year history of the four-team format
05:45of the CFP were decided on average by 17.9 points per game,
05:51with only 7 of the 20 even decided by a single score.
05:55Our national championship games in the decade of the CFP,
06:00the two best teams in college football squaring off,
06:04decided by 21.4 points per game,
06:07with half of them decided by at least three touchdowns.
06:12Blowouts in this unique and wacky sport of college football,
06:16even at the upper echelon, have happened, do happen,
06:20and will continue to happen.
06:23Now, Joe, to your point on fixing the format,
06:25we've already been seeing reports,
06:27namely from Action Network's Brett McMurphy yesterday,
06:30that the college football playoff committee
06:32and the college football playoff board of governors, if you will,
06:35is already considering a change to this format for next year,
06:40where you would still guarantee bids to the college football playoff
06:44for the five highest-ranked conference champs.
06:46So you would have that group of five input
06:48and making sure you get at least one ACC and Big 12 team into this field,
06:54but not necessarily opening round buys for the four highest-ranked conference champs.
06:59I think we can all agree that's pretty good.
07:03I think some of those teams, like Arizona State and Boise State or maybe even Clemson,
07:08whoever earns those automatic bids to the college football playoff
07:11might rather host an on-campus game than play in a bowl game
07:16where they're still catching double digits.
07:18That would be just my estimation.
07:20I do think this quarterfinal round will be closer,
07:23and I think we're certainly going to see that in our final two games tomorrow night,
07:28that being Oregon and Ohio State in the Rose Bowl,
07:31and Georgia and Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl.
07:34Both spreads, two-and-a-half points in favor of the Buckeyes,
07:37a point-and-a-half now only in favor of Georgia.
07:41So let's start with the Fiesta Bowl.
07:43We'll go game by game.
07:44We'll break all of this down where we see things fit throughout our next three hours.
07:51But, Joe, it just should be noted that when you look at these spreads,
07:54we've got two that are at least double digits,
07:57and we've got two that is less than a field goal.
08:01Boise State is catching 11-and-a-half from Penn State tonight
08:05in the Fiesta Bowl out in Glendale, Arizona.
08:09And I just think it's a terrible matchup here for Boise State
08:14because the defense of Penn State allowing 279 yards of total offense a game,
08:23allowing barely 100 yards per game rushing, which is the strength of Boise State.
08:29I think it's simple.
08:31Shut down Ashton Jenthe, and guess what?
08:33Boise State is going to have a hard time in this game.
08:36I think the defensive side of the ball is the big difference maker.
08:40Penn State, number five offense in the country,
08:43and the offense averaging 38 a game here, Ben.
08:46They can run.
08:47They can throw with efficiency.
08:50This game could get out of hand in a hurry.
08:53And by the way, Penn State and Franklin will not take their foot off the gas
08:57in any way, shape, or form if given the opportunity.
09:01They don't do that, but Boise State is very familiar with this setting
09:06out in the desert in Arizona.
09:08They have played in three previous Fiesta Bowls,
09:11including one of the great upsets this sport has ever seen back to start in 2007.
09:17More from the College Football Playoff next.
09:20Your College Football Playoff quarterfinal preview live right here
09:24on New Year's Eve on the Early Line on Sports Grid.
09:27We start the quarters tonight at the Fiesta Bowl.
09:30It's the three-seed Boise State, the champions of the Mountain West,
09:34taking on the six-seed Penn State.
09:36That would be James Franklin's Nittany Lions.
09:39Boise has only been an underdog once this year.
09:41They were catching three scores inside Opson Stadium against the Ducks.
09:45Of course, they kept that game incredibly close.
09:47Oregon needed a last-second field goal to escape with a win.
09:51Ashton Gente, 192 yards on the ground that day against the Ducks,
09:56needs only a buck 32 tonight to break Barry Sanders' record.
10:02Now, again, I just have to say this.
10:04As a student of history of college football,
10:06Barry Sanders rushed for 2,628 yards in 11 games in 1988.
10:13If you add on even the bowl game for the Pokes, that record is 2,850.
10:18So, yeah, Ashton Gente in his 14th game of the year could catch Barry tonight,
10:23but know what the actual record is.
10:25Not discrediting any Ashton Gente.
10:27He has had a historic season.
10:29He is going to end, more than likely,
10:31with the second most rushing yards in a single season
10:34in the history of college football.
10:37Joe, now we go to our next game in the quarterfinal round.
10:40It also features double digits.
10:42That is Arizona State in the Peach Bowl.
10:44The champions of the Big 12 earning that opening round
10:47by taking on the top at-large team.
10:50The runner-ups in the SEC, that would be Texas.
10:54Texas was the largest favorite of the opening round,
10:57laying two touchdowns at close against Clemson.
11:01Texas is the largest favorite in the quarterfinal round,
11:04laying 12.5 points against the Sun Devils.
11:07Texas covered, winning by 14 against Clemson in the opening round.
11:12Might the Longhorns do the same here in the quarterfinal round?
11:17I hate the match-up, Farron.
11:20I think it's just a terrible match-up for the Sun Devils.
11:23Now, Clemson, to their credit, and, you know, Klupnick there,
11:29they could throw the ball,
11:31and that's how they ended up moving the ball on Texas.
11:35Arizona State is all about running it with scatabowl.
11:38Texas, 10th in the country against the Rush,
11:41allowing 104.2 rushing yards per game.
11:44The 13 teams that the Sun Devils have faced this season
11:48have an average total defense of rank of 76.
11:53Texas is the third-ranked defense in the country overall.
11:59And, by the way, Jordan Tyson not playing the number-one receiver here
12:03for Arizona State, which means, how are you beating them?
12:07And they can't get pressure on Quineiros.
12:10We all saw Quineiros is a different quarterback if you can get to his face.
12:14That's not what the Sun Devils defensively do.
12:17They rank 100th in the country in sacks per game.
12:20Everything here points to this being advantage Texas.
12:25If they can't run on this Texas defense,
12:29this game is also a blowout, unfortunately.
12:33So Clemson threw for 336 against the Longhorns in Austin in the opening round.
12:39Texas entered that game allowing just 146 passing yards per.
12:44They were the best secondary in all of college football.
12:48I do believe that Arizona State is going to have to run the football effectively.
12:52And I think they have the guy in Cam Scataboo who can do exactly that.
12:57I also believe they have the head coach in Kenny Dillingham
13:00who came to ASU after being the offensive play caller at Oregon
13:04that will design a scheme to keep this game close.
13:08I do think Arizona State can stay within this number,
13:11but that's a big if on Cam Scataboo having the game of his life.
13:17He's had 7 of 12 games that he's played in this year for ASU
13:21where he has had at least 180 scrimmage yards.
13:24He will need that and then some against Texas.
13:28Arizona State's doing a lot of talking.
13:30Don't love that because Texas is sitting there and saying
13:33what a great year for the Sun Devils.
13:35We wish them the best.
13:36That is what you say before you bludgeon somebody
13:40when you know they are better, when you are better than them.
13:44I will just say double-digit spreads in our first two games,
13:48less than a field goal in our final two.
13:51Oregon and Ohio State in the rematch in the Rose Bowl.
13:55Your classic Pac-12 Big Ten matchup in Pasadena
13:59under the San Gabriel Mountains.
14:01Two-and-a-half point spread in favor of Ohio State.
14:04The Sugar Bowl in the nightcap on New Year's Day out in New Orleans.
14:08Joe is basically becoming a pick-em before our very eyes.
14:12It opened briefly with Notre Dame as a slight favorite.
14:16It quickly flipped to Georgia as the favorite.
14:19They laid as many as two-and-a-half.
14:21You can see it there.
14:22It is a pick-em right now on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
14:25Joe, of those two games, the Rose between Oregon and Ohio State,
14:30the Sugar between Georgia and Notre Dame,
14:33which game is closer and more competitive?
14:37They're both serious coin flip games, Ben.
14:41It's kind of crazy.
14:42I do think in both of those games,
14:46totals are probably where the value is.
14:50Good luck trying to keep the scoring down between Oregon and Ohio State.
14:56In fact, I'd even look at the first half over,
14:59given the amount of time Oregon's had to prep for this game,
15:02and given the way Ohio State came out firing against Tennessee,
15:07they're going to need to do that again.
15:09Ohio State doesn't want to have to play come from behind
15:11like they did in the first game the entire day.
15:14I would look at the first half over as well,
15:17but to me, ultimately,
15:19it's going to come down to the final two, three minutes,
15:21just like the first one did.
15:23Hopefully, there'll be a lot more points,
15:25and we have already cashed the over in it.
15:27But I do think Notre Dame has a really good chance here
15:31of walking away with a victory
15:33and possibly playing for a national championship.
15:36They're the dog I would look at
15:38if they're even considered a dog at this point.
15:41So when you look at those national championship odds,
15:44it's a six-to-one price on Notre Dame to win that title,
15:48improving because it is basically a pick-em.
15:51Joe, we have eight teams left
15:53in the hunt for that national championship
15:55in the college football playoff.
15:57Before we start the quarterfinals tonight,
15:59who would you bet on to win a national championship?
16:02I don't mind Notre Dame. I really don't.
16:06I think that they're kind of the forgotten ones here,
16:09and while everyone loves the SEC and the Big Ten,
16:14yeah, I would pay attention to Notre Dame,
16:18and I think they should actually roll Georgia,
16:22I think, rather easily in this one.
16:25It will be interesting.
16:26Gunnar Stockton makes his first career start for Georgia
16:30with a rush defense outside of the Texas game
16:33that has been as bad as we have seen in Athens in the last five years.
16:37More on the early line, up next.