IHSG berbalik -0,73% ke 7.112,33 sesi I Senin (6/1), bahkan memasuki sesi II IHSG -1% ke 7.088. Sektor teknologi +1,78% GOTO +3,85%, sektor energi + 0,77% PGAS +7,21%. Sektor keuangan -1,20% BBRI -1,20%, BMRI -2,16% BBCA -1,02% dan BBNI -2,20%. Pekan lalu tercatat net sell investor asing di BBRI Rp302,56 miliar, BMRI Rp248,69 miliar, BBNI Rp146,73 miliar, BBCA Rp57,44 miliar.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us on IDX Session Closing.
00:04In this segment, we will review how the trade has been going on throughout the day,
00:08especially where the gas industry in Kabungan is experiencing quite a deep correction.
00:12And we remind you again, you can still participate in our interactive WhatsApp
00:16at 0812.8788.3723, as shown on the television screen and later.
00:23And right now, we are in contact with Mr. Joshua Marcius,
00:26Technical Analyst at Philips Securities Indonesia.
00:29We will get straight to the point.
00:30Good afternoon, Mr. Joshua. How are you?
00:33Good afternoon, sir. I'm good, of course.
00:35Thank you, Mr. Joshua, for taking the time to join us on IDX Channel.
00:38At the beginning of Monday, the third trading day in 2025,
00:44the gas industry in Kabungan is experiencing quite a deep correction of more than 1%.
00:49Actually, we had hoped to try to get closer to the 7200 level,
00:54but it has been reversed by experiencing quite a deep weakness.
00:58What is your analysis, especially from a technical point of view,
01:01of the reversals that have occurred throughout the day?
01:04The reversals are very precise in the 7200 area that you mentioned earlier.
01:09It is also very precise in the dynamic resistance area, the 72, the psychological level as well.
01:13So it is quite normal for it to experience a correction.
01:16So the correction is likely to continue after the dynamic resistance,
01:19like the one that happened earlier,
01:21it is likely to reach the 6900 level to update the correction area.
01:26Okay. What is actually causing the correction to happen again for the gas industry in Kabungan?
01:34There is a new sentiment related to the increase in PBN in deficit,
01:38which is also one of the factors that may cause the actual selling.
01:43And also, if we look at it from the other side,
01:45maybe if our GDP returns to 5%, there will be a significant rebound.
01:51Okay. How do you see the expectations from the market players,
01:55the expectations from Trump, then he will also implement some policies later?
02:01If we look at it from Trump's point of view, what we need to wait for is
02:03whether we will be affected by the price of the trade.
02:09If we are not affected, the impact may not be that big.
02:11But if we are affected later, especially if our trade partners,
02:15one of them is China, is also affected,
02:17it may be very big, it can have an impact on our growth.
02:20Okay. Mr. Joasua, how do you see the attitude of foreign investors?
02:25Will the sales continue at the beginning of the trade in 2025?
02:30It seems that if you look at the recent market,
02:33we can see that it is still rising in the range of 400 billion.
02:38Especially in the banking sector, it is still in the middle,
02:40although it is still growing compared to the banking sector on the other side.
02:44It is likely that it will continue.
02:46It seems that it is still waiting for us to come back.
02:48In the end, the GDP will be 4.95%.
02:50If in the future, it will be 4-5% again,
02:52maybe there will be an increase in foreign funds coming back to us.
02:57Okay. What are the expectations of the market players for the fourth quarter?
03:01Overall?
03:04If we look at the banks,
03:06there are three banks,
03:08the average is growing compared to the previous year.
03:13If in China, from the 11-month period,
03:15the average is around 4-5%.
03:17The probability is around 4-5%.
03:19Moreover, the loan growth is still maintaining at a fairly good rate,
03:22at double digits, around 10%.
03:25Okay. Mr. Joasua, when last December,
03:28the Window Dressing and Santarelli didn't seem to happen
03:31and didn't have a significant impact on the housing market.
03:34How do you see the third day of trading,
03:39when the housing market is back in a tight spot?
03:42Is the potential for a January effect,
03:44the chances are getting smaller,
03:46or maybe we are still too early?
03:48Because it's only been three days of trading in January 2025.
03:52Actually, the success rate or not,
03:54maybe it's too early.
03:56But if we talk about the historical,
03:58in the last 10 years,
04:00the interest rate is around 50%.
04:02So, there is a 50-50 chance that it will happen or not.
04:07If we look at it from now on,
04:09it's still open, there is still a potential,
04:11and the trend is still going down.
04:12But if there is a rebound in the future,
04:14maybe around 6,900,
04:16it could be in a positive condition.
04:18So, we still have to wait and see
04:20whether there will be a technical reversal in the future.
04:23Okay. You also mentioned earlier
04:25that in Singgung, the big cap banks
04:27are still continuing their weakness,
04:29their volatility is still high,
04:31and the foreign trade is still going on.
04:33How do you see the burden today
04:36on the big cap banks?
04:39Mr. Joshua?
04:40Actually, this is normal.
04:42If something happens, for example,
04:44if YSK goes down,
04:45usually there is a financial sector.
04:48In the middle, if we look at it,
04:49this is also an opportunity.
04:50In the middle, it goes down a lot,
04:51even though the balance is still growing quite well.
04:54Some have doubled digits,
04:55some have grown by around 4-5%
04:57in terms of bottom line performance
04:59over the past 11 months.
05:01This is a good opportunity.
05:02Maybe it can be seen from the valuation side,
05:04whether it is suitable or not
05:05for each valuation result.
05:08Okay.
05:09The four big cap banks
05:10seem to be compact, sir.
05:12They are experiencing a fairly deep weakness.
05:14I want to go to BMRI first.
05:16Today, it weakened by 2.59%
05:18and moving to level 5, 6, 50.
05:22What is your analysis and recommendation for BMRI?
05:25If we talk technically,
05:27BMRI, although other cap banks,
05:30including BCR too,
05:31the trend is on the reverse side
05:34in the short term
05:35because it tends to go down.
05:36It is possible that BMRI
05:38will continue to weaken to level 5, 4, 7, 5
05:40until level 5, 5, 50.
05:42There, maybe we can watch
05:43whether there will be a reversal or not.
05:45For now, it still tends to weaken.
05:46Moreover, it is still moving down.
05:48The resistance level is 6,100 rupiah.
05:50What is your recommendation for BMRI, sir?
05:52Maybe we can wait until the current range.
05:55Support level 5, 4, 7, 5 until level 5, 5, 50.
05:58That's when it will be interesting.
05:59Okay.
06:00From BMRI, we move to BBNI, sir.
06:02It weakened by 2.42%, 4, 4, 30.
06:06Today's closing.
06:08As for BNI,
06:10as we mentioned earlier,
06:11it is also moving below its EMA
06:13and also in line with other trends.
06:15That's why we see that
06:16it tends to continue to go down
06:18and its support is 4,260.
06:20If the 4,260 has an interesting movement,
06:23for example, the shape of the candle bullish
06:25or if there is a strength movement,
06:26usually 2% or more,
06:28it shows that there is a potential to strengthen again.
06:30The strong support is there.
06:32Okay.
06:33We continue to wait there.
06:34Okay.
06:35The recommendation is the same as BMRI,
06:37more towards YNC at the support level?
06:39Yes, that's right.
06:40Most of these four developments
06:42tend to YNC as well
06:43because we see that the trend is going down together.
06:46It follows the trend that is going down now.
06:48Okay.
06:49Moving to BBCA, sir.
06:50Today, it is also stressed at 1.78%.
06:54But again,
06:55the weakness is more limited
06:58compared to other developments in the gap.
07:01Actually, this limited weakness
07:02may also be because of the candle,
07:03maybe a little higher
07:05compared to other banks.
07:07That's why it's lower.
07:08But indeed, in terms of trends,
07:09we are going down together now.
07:11If we look at the technical trend,
07:12this is also moving.
07:13The markdown phase is also moving.
07:15The mechanism has formed a bearish crossover
07:17so that it can still continue to weakness
07:19to the level of 9.550.
07:21The same as before,
07:22we are still waiting for YNC,
07:23waiting for a breakout movement,
07:25even if it is BBCA.
07:28From BBCA, we move to BBRI, sir.
07:30Among several BBRI pick-up banks,
07:33the most are sold by foreign investors.
07:36Actually, what is the concern
07:39of foreign investors
07:40related to BBRI stocks?
07:43Maybe from the point of view of BBRI,
07:45if you give a loan,
07:48it usually goes to a micro-business.
07:51Maybe if we look at the recent trend,
07:53it's starting to go down.
07:54Even though retail sales are still growing
07:56at the last 1.5%,
07:57maybe that's the concern.
07:59And the CKDN is also increasing.
08:00That may reduce
08:01compared to other investors.
08:03So, it becomes a consideration
08:05for the sale action of foreign investors.
08:08Maybe that's what they see, sir.
08:10Is the short-term and medium-term
08:12still a downtrend for BBRI, sir?
08:15It's still a downtrend now.
08:16That's why we're still waiting
08:18for the psychological level of 4,000-4,040.
08:20If there is an interesting reversal,
08:23it will be okay
08:24as an area that can be looked at again.
08:27Can you repeat, sir?
08:29In the 4,000-4,040 area,
08:31it is quite an interesting area.
08:34If it is touched later,
08:35then in the future,
08:37maybe the formation of a reversal candle,
08:39or maybe the upside bar break,
08:40the high will be interesting.
08:42We are waiting in that area.
08:44Okay, analysis from Samsung Banking Pickup
08:46which today again becomes a burden
08:48for the joint stock price index.
08:51The financial sector becomes a burden, sir.
08:53The technology sector again becomes
08:55the leader, the strength today,
08:58where in the last few times,
09:02especially in all trades
09:05throughout 2025,
09:07the technology sector
09:08has also experienced significant strength.
09:10Not to mention the strength of the Gotoh stock,
09:13which today, intraday,
09:15has touched the level of Rp. 84 per share.
09:19Analysis and recommendations for Gotoh?
09:22For Gotoh itself,
09:23recently it has been strengthening
09:24for the past three or four days.
09:25You also mentioned the closure
09:27that we often support with technology
09:29and Gotoh is one of the biggest supporters.
09:32After passing only Rp. 82 today,
09:35there is still room to strengthen
09:36to the level of Rp. 90.
09:37It is also supported by
09:39the fact that it has acquired the software
09:41and also, if we look at it,
09:42it can withstand the strong resistance at Rp. 82.
09:45Is there a chance for Rp. 90, Mr. Joshua?
09:47There is, sir.
09:48There was Rp. 90 earlier for the opportunity.
09:50Okay, Rp. 90 resistance will be able to be chased by Gotoh.
09:53Is there any expectation, sir,
09:55that Gotoh's EBITDA will be positive in Q4?
09:58Well, to be honest,
10:00I haven't seen too far
10:01related to this sector.
10:02So maybe I can't expect
10:04too far related to that.
10:05Okay.
10:06Technical analysis,
10:07Gotoh today strengthened by 2.56% at Rp. 80.
10:10There is still potential to the level of Rp. 90 per share
10:13and again, the decision to invest
10:15is still in the hands of Mr. Mirsa Adi Aikchanal.
10:17Mr. Joshua, we will come back to the data later.
10:19Later, we will try to see
10:20what Samsung plans that you recommend,
10:22especially in the middle of the pandemic
10:24in the Samkabung region throughout today.
10:26And Mr. Mirsa, we will be right back.
10:28See you soon.