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00:00:00Live right here on a Tuesday morning on the early line on sports grid. It is the day following the
00:00:05day after the end of the NFL regular season, a Monday following the final weekend slate of the
00:00:11regular season known as Black Monday, where a lot of head coaching jobs are up for grabs and maybe
00:00:18in changing hands. We really only saw one dismissal on Monday. That was early on Monday
00:00:25morning, Doug Peterson being let go after three years in Duval County and a 22 and 29 record.
00:00:33But outside of that, the biggest news of the day was the Giants holding on to Brian Dayball
00:00:40and Joe Shing. That can be a part of the carousel as well, Gervin Airy, all of the moving parts,
00:00:46even when those parts are staying in the same place. We know the Chicago Bears are looking for
00:00:52a new head coach firing Matt Eberflew's back in the regular season. And as we got word yesterday
00:00:59from ESPN's Adam Schefter, the Bears have sought permission to interview Cowboys head coach Mike
00:01:05McCarthy and are awaiting a response from Dallas. If the Cowboys don't allow permission this week,
00:01:12no worries. The Bears could interview McCarthy after his exclusive negotiating window with Dallas
00:01:17expires on January 14th. That is exactly one week from today, his exclusive negotiating window.
00:01:25What is that legal jargon? It just means that Mike McCarthy no longer has a contract
00:01:30with the Cowboys organization as of next week.
00:01:35The whole thing is very, very weird. But to be fair, the Bears also requested interviews from,
00:01:42I believe, Todd Monken. So it's there's a few guys there still. Well, they seem to be
00:01:48interviewing everyone like the Jets do here. But I'm going to be very interested to see if this
00:01:53moves the needle with Jerry. Does this make Jerry want to hurry up and maybe sign him,
00:01:59work out a deal? It wasn't like Jerry set him up for success. I mean, they didn't do
00:02:04anything in the offseason to improve the roster, but they also didn't extend him.
00:02:09So I don't know what any of it means in Dallas with Jerry calling the shots right now.
00:02:15And that's the key, Joe. And that was one of the biggest storylines in my estimation
00:02:20entering this twenty twenty four NFL season. The offseason fiasco that was Dallas. They
00:02:25didn't acquire a new running back to really replace Tony Pollard or the shell of Ezekiel
00:02:31Elliott for a very, very, very, very, very long time, even deep into training camp in the preseason
00:02:37with the regular season on the horizon. Dak Prescott was unpaid. CD Lamp was unpaid.
00:02:42Understanding that Micah Parsons paid tab would be on the horizon this offseason as well if they
00:02:49wanted to be shrewd in their financial decisions and get in front of it. But outside all of that,
00:02:54it was the fact the head coach, Mike McCarthy, was on the warmest seat we have ever seen
00:02:59in the NFL that if this season was a failure and it was, I guess you could point to the quarterback
00:03:06injuries for Dak Prescott and say that was the reason even with Dak in there, it was a disaster
00:03:13in Dallas that if Mike McCarthy stumbled, he would not be brought back. Jerry made that very clear at
00:03:18the end of last year's first round exit, losing it home to the Green Bay Packers in 13 postseason
00:03:25trips since nineteen ninety five. The Cowboys last Super Bowl without even reaching the NFC
00:03:31championship game. So I'm not exactly sure what the plan is for Dallas except the same thought,
00:03:39Joe, that we all had entering the year that Mike McCarthy has coached his last game as the Cowboys
00:03:44head coach. But now there's some reports that maybe Jerry is having the confidence in McCarthy
00:03:49once again. Yeah, I can't wait to see because there's still a lot of holes on this roster.
00:03:57Now, again, Ben, if you're willing to give him all things being equal, I'm willing to give with
00:04:02all the injuries on the defense and offensive side of the ball this year that Dallas had to go
00:04:08through and all the question marks and everything else. I'm willing to give McCarthy the benefit of
00:04:13the doubt and say, listen, a lot of the reason why this team was as bad as they were in many
00:04:20stretches really had nothing to do with Mike McCarthy. I can make that argument. But whether
00:04:25or not that moves the needle with Jerry remains to be seen. Right. And that's the case, Joe. It
00:04:30wasn't all on Mike McCarthy this year. A lot of outlier factors, if you will. But it still is a
00:04:36dismal season for the Dallas Cowboys. So as we said, Black Monday, not nearly as bleak as it
00:04:43often can be. But on Sunday afternoon, after the Patriots took the Bills at home in their season
00:04:50finale to squander the chance to draft first overall or at least acquire a ton of draft
00:04:55assets for that first overall pick, Robert Kraft made the move to fire Gerard Mayo after his only
00:05:02year as the head coach of this Patriots organization. Here was the owner of the
00:05:07patch yesterday on what lies ahead in this offseason and the reasons behind his decision.
00:05:13I'm going to be very brief here and say this whole situation is on me.
00:05:22I feel terrible for Gerard because I put him in an untenable situation.
00:05:31I know that he has all the tools as a head coach to be successful in this league.
00:05:38He just needed more time before taking the job. In the end, I'm a fan of this team first.
00:05:49And now I have to go out and find a coach who can get us back to the playoffs and hopefully
00:05:58championships. I mean, I guess it's refreshing to hear the owner take some onus.
00:06:07I disagree with the notion Gerard Mayo was not ready to be a head coach. He was a long-time
00:06:12defensive assistant under Bill Belichick. If you said you set him up for failure, that's true.
00:06:17He was the scapegoat between a legend who was there for two and a half decades
00:06:21in hoping to be better. The Patriots won four games this year. Not a good season.
00:06:26Second consecutive year in Foxborough, only winning four games. That's unheard of
00:06:32for this Patriots organization that we have known over the last two decades.
00:06:37But total win total for New England entering the year was the lowest in the NFL at four and a half.
00:06:42It wasn't like Gerard Mayo was a disaster as a head coach in his debut season.
00:06:49I would rather he just go up to the podium and say, we're going to make this brief.
00:06:54I'd like to welcome Mike Vrabel back to the Patriots family as the new head coach of the
00:06:59Like what are we doing here? Like stop spitting in our face and telling us it's raining here, Ben.
00:07:04You don't make this move if you don't know that Vrabel wants the job. Let's be honest here.
00:07:10And that is really it from one former Patriot linebacker to another.
00:07:14That will probably be the next news conference we see in New England. More NFL headlines next.
00:07:20It is coaching carousel time in the National Football League and not just head coaches,
00:07:25but assistant coaches, otherwise known as coordinators. And a couple were fired
00:07:30and let go from their franchises yesterday. A couple of very familiar faces. First in Cincinnati,
00:07:37one time, one of the hottest DCs in all of the NFL, Lou Annarumo, after the Bengals mightily
00:07:44struggled on the defensive side of the football, which ultimately cost them a playoff berth,
00:07:50was let go yesterday in Cincy. Gus Bradley, defensive coordinator in Indianapolis,
00:07:56a really bad year defensively for the Colts. He was fired as well. Ryan Grubb in his first year
00:08:02in Seattle, the offensive coordinator a year ago with the Washington Huskies under Kalen DeBoer,
00:08:08that was going to follow the board of Tuscaloosa before being hired in the Northwest by Mike
00:08:14McDonald. And those Seahawks also fired yesterday and early yesterday or maybe even Sunday. I think
00:08:21it was Sunday because the Browns played on Saturday. Ken Dorsey let go by the Cleveland
00:08:26Browns as well. Yeah, the thing that shocked me the most was the Lou Annarumo, who will be
00:08:34unemployed for about 30 minutes. Ben, I can already imagine the phone lighting up here on
00:08:40teams that will take him. As if it's his fault that that Cincinnati organization backed themselves
00:08:46in a corner and decided, well, we have to pay receivers and Joe Burrow. And while we can't
00:08:52afford anybody on the defensive side of the ball, so go ahead, Lou, have a good time with this.
00:08:56That's just a precursor to Taylor being the next one that's tossed. That's usually how this
00:09:03sequence works. It's almost like you have to do something when the season is that disappointing.
00:09:09And Lou Annarumo was the guy to get got some reports entering the regular season finale
00:09:15on Sunday that multiple NFL teams are inquiring about Kevin O'Connell's contract, his job status,
00:09:24maybe hoping to trade. Yeah, you heard that correctly. Trade for the Vikings head coach. I
00:09:31guess that's what happens when you lead Minnesota to a 14 win season with Sam Donald as your
00:09:37quarterback. Kevin O'Connell saying yesterday that Minnesota being in the Twin Cities is exactly
00:09:43where he wants to be. An interesting situation, nonetheless. Yeah, it almost as if his the agency
00:09:52representing him somehow got a story leaked that people want to trade for him just before they
00:09:57begin negotiating an extension on his contract. Funny how that works there, Ben, like that story.
00:10:02Shocking. Listen, PR departments of agencies, they work overtime and they work very,
00:10:08very well. Ezekiel Elliott wants to play for a contender. That's not the Cowboys
00:10:14signed to the Chargers practice squad. We'll see what that means. Former Buckeye with Jim Harbaugh.
00:10:21Interesting development there. Deshaun Watson reportedly suffering a setback rehabbing his
00:10:26Achilles. Joe, that's important, not because Deshaun Watson is expected to be the starter
00:10:32week number one any longer for the Browns, but if he were to miss 2025, if he is not physically
00:10:39ready, it saves the Browns a huge burden in terms of the money that Watson is owed.
00:10:45Yeah, and I would expect him not to be available come the start of next season here, Ben. There
00:10:52is a lot going on behind the scenes with this, that's for sure. I'll just say, you know, the
00:10:59real thing is, that's the story, the memes of Andrew Perry, the GM for the Browns, picking up
00:11:05Watson from rehab and dumping him down the stairs. That was rather humorous. Joe, as you may mention
00:11:12too, it almost feels like the coaching carousel is really just starting to spin. Some moves we
00:11:17might have expected or speculated during the regular season, even at the end of it, haven't
00:11:22happened, including in Las Vegas for first-year Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce. How comfortable
00:11:29does Pierce feel about his job? Let's hear from the guy himself. I'll ask you again, have you
00:11:36got any clarity on what's happening next year about your job status? I haven't been told anything
00:11:41different. Do you want to get that cleared up ASAP? It's only coming from outside, it's not
00:11:48inside the building, so to me there's nothing to clean up until I hear it from inside the building.
00:11:53Joe, what do you think? Is Antonio Pierce going to be coaching in Sin City to start 2025?
00:12:02Probably, unless, again, see here's the problem, Ben, is that how many, how many quality
00:12:10upgraded coaches, right? The devil you know is better than the devil you don't. How many quality
00:12:15coaches are there that would be an improvement over Pierce that actually want to work for the
00:12:19Davis family? Yeah, I don't know the answer to that, right? Players tend to believe in Antonio
00:12:28Pierce. It's why he was elevated from interim to permanent head man last offseason as well. Plenty
00:12:36more around the National Football League. Time to talk about the Jets next. Live right here on this
00:12:42Tuesday on the Early Line on Sports Grid. So much to update you around the National Football League
00:12:47later on in the show. We begin our previews and breakdowns, the Early Lines on the Early Line
00:12:55for the playoffs beginning around the NFL. But before the postseason, it's the offseason already
00:13:01for 18 organizations around the league. And Joe, currently including the Cowboys expiring contract
00:13:09next week with Mike McCarthy, there are five head coaching vacancies around the NFL. Three of them
00:13:16happen during the regular season, including, of course, the New York Jets. A lot of questions for
00:13:22Woody Johnson and family to figure out this offseason. Quarterback in Aaron Rodgers and,
00:13:28of course, head coach and general manager. Here are some head coaching candidates that have been
00:13:33reported for gangrene as of this moment. Aaron Glenn, the talented defensive coordinator of the
00:13:40Lions. Brian Flores, who put together a masterpiece of a year in Minneapolis. Arthur Smith, former
00:13:46Falcons head coach and current offensive coordinator of the Steelers. Matt Nagy, former Bears head
00:13:52coach, current OC in KC. Bobby Slowick, who last year was the hottest guy in town. It's kind of
00:13:59dropped off a little bit. And Josh McCown, former NFL quarterback currently working under Kevin
00:14:05O'Connell in Minnesota, plus a slew of others, including one interview that is happening today.
00:14:13A familiar face and name for this Jets franchise, Rex Ryan. Welcome back to East Rutherford or
00:14:20Forum Park, perhaps. Yeah, we didn't have enough room to also put Mike Cardano, Greg Sussman,
00:14:28I believe Mike Blewett was on there. Joe Friese. Oh, I mean, you get anybody and everybody within
00:14:35a 30 mile radius of MetLife has actually gotten an interview for the New York Jets.
00:14:40And oh, yeah, by the way, we're still no closer to finding a general manager actually knows what
00:14:44they're doing, Ben, which is also mind blowing when you consider all of the time being wasted
00:14:51with the coaches and not enough time being put into figuring out who the general manager is
00:14:57and what is their vision and what is their coach of choice. And that's really a key part of this
00:15:03component as well. When exactly does that hire happen of the GM? Does it happen before simultaneously
00:15:11after the hiring of the head coach? You would assume before. So that guy is on board with who
00:15:17his head coach is. So there is a mash up in management, but it is the New York Jets. So here's
00:15:23where you'd actually be wrong, though. Geroneri, Homedale, New Jersey, is about 44 miles away from
00:15:29MetLife. So some of the great people working at our New Jersey studios, not exactly in consideration.
00:15:35I have a chance being here in New York City, and yet I have not received word from Woody Johnson
00:15:42or his son just yet. You mentioned all the head coaching interviews, 10 GM interviews already
00:15:49on the docket. Do you think, Joe, with where the New York Jets stand as an organization,
00:15:5414 consecutive seasons missing the NFL postseason, it is the longest active drought by far
00:16:01in the National Football League, as we learned yesterday in a trivia game. The Colts, who last
00:16:06made the playoffs in 2020, is the second longest drought in the AFC, and the Jets have that beat by
00:16:13more than a decade virtually. In half of those 14 seasons, New York has won five games or fewer.
00:16:20Do you consider the Jets' job a desirable one in the NFL?
00:16:27No, nobody considers it a desirable one because in all it is time frame, the only thing you're
00:16:34going to attract in New York are misfits, tossaways, guys that are willing to do anything
00:16:43for a job. Why? Because they still haven't started from the top to work their way down.
00:16:48The ownership in Woody Johnson, one of the worst in the NFL, we all know it. There's dysfunction
00:16:55from the top, and when there's dysfunction starting at the top, if you don't get that
00:16:59straightened out, anything and everything else you do from that point on is just laughable,
00:17:05and that's exactly what the Jets are, laughable. And so when you look at the five vacant jobs,
00:17:11including the New York Jets, the New Orleans Saints, the Chicago Bears, potentially the
00:17:16Dallas Cowboys included in this because they don't have a head coach as of next week at this
00:17:23moment with no contract extension being offered to Mike McCarthy right now, and then the one that
00:17:29we learned yesterday, the Jacksonville Jaguars, I'm not really sure which is the most desirable.
00:17:34Technically, you would think Chicago, first overall picking Caleb Williams, who showed
00:17:40some optimism and a pretty talented roster, despite how disappointing this season was.
00:17:45But good things go to die, sadly, it seems under the McCaskey family of this Bears organization.
00:17:52Everybody is already spooked by Trent Balki continuing to be the GM in Duval County quotes
00:17:59yesterday from some potential head coaching candidates that have said there is no movement
00:18:04forward in Jacksonville as long as Balki is there. That was a stutter around the NFL.
00:18:10I would say probably the Saints job, but you don't really have the quarterback in place
00:18:15to really make it all that desirable. And then you've got the Jets and the Cowboys,
00:18:20which is also its own quandary because Jerry Jones still wants to be the alpha in every room.
00:18:26And suddenly, Ben, Bill Belichick, the North Carolina makes a ton of sense, does it not?
00:18:33Yes, it does, folks. And now you know why. Unbelievable. The vacancy is not one desirable
00:18:40job among them. It's not for a guy with a resume like Belichick anyway, but for the guys who are
00:18:45like Rex Ryan, heck, it's gold rush time here, Ben. I mean, my interview with everybody because
00:18:52all of those franchises are going nowhere fast. I hope you get some free food, Rex, and get to
00:18:58enjoy your visits around the National Football League. Injury news for teams still playing.
00:19:05Good football teams that have reached the postseason. Again, difficult injury news for
00:19:10Green Bay on one front, more hopeful news on the other. Let's start with the bad. Christian
00:19:15Watson injured in the regular season finale against Chicago. He is having season ending
00:19:21surgery to repair a torn ACL. Not just bad news for the playoffs for the pack, but putting his
00:19:27status in question for the start of 2025. But Jordan Love, who exited the game in the opening
00:19:34half and then was warming up on the sideline, Matt LaFleur said after the game that if it was truly
00:19:39necessary, Love could have stayed in the game. He is expected to be, quote, OK for Sunday in
00:19:46Philadelphia against the Birds. Yeah, I don't like the OK because nothing about his play has been OK
00:19:55or the play calling, for that matter, over the last couple of weeks here with the Packers.
00:19:59And now you're losing weapons. Yikes. Not exactly the best spot here for the Green Bay Packers
00:20:07heading into a big game against the Eagles. But like you said there, are we sure Jalen Hurts is
00:20:12playing in this game? Anybody? So that's the quarterback matchup to pay attention to. Back
00:20:19to that graphic. Pretty pleased. Jordan Love dealing with what pro football doc Dr. David
00:20:24Chow called a funny bone contusion should be fine. Really no lingering effects. But there have
00:20:30been lingering effects for Jalen Hurts, who remains in concussion protocol, injured now three weekends
00:20:37ago early in the opening half week 16 against the Washington Commanders. Not a big deal. Week 17
00:20:44against the Cowboys to clinch the division or, of course, last week in the finale against the New
00:20:49York Giants. Joe, it really becomes a story tomorrow when the practice week opens up on
00:20:55Wednesday. If Hurts is not out there. It's a big problem, yes, and the fact that he's
00:21:03in still in the concussion protocol is is a little concerning here because it's not exactly easy to
00:21:10get out of it, Ben, and if he's still in it, there's there's some issues there. So that's a
00:21:16lot of uncertainty surrounding the Philadelphia Eagles right now without him. What changes in 48
00:21:22to 72 hours that hasn't already evolved in the last couple of weeks to get him out of the protocols?
00:21:29Dave Flowers listed as day to day. That's coach speak. We don't expect to see Dave Flowers this
00:21:34weekend as Baltimore hosts the Steelers or maybe even next weekend if they reach the divisional
00:21:41round. And again, I wonder, Joe, as we'll talk about the line a little bit later for that match
00:21:46up Sunday in Philly between the Eagles and the Packers, if it is taking into account right now,
00:21:51Jalen Hurts' status being up in the air or if it is expecting Hurts to start four and a half
00:21:57point spread in favor of the Eagles. Welcome to our number two live right here on a Tuesday
00:22:03on the early line on SportsGrid. He is Joe Ranieri. I am Ben Stevens. In this second hour,
00:22:10the early line truly lives up to its name. It is a second hour dedicated to a preview and a
00:22:17breakdown of each. And I mean, individually, each each and every segment of our six matchups during
00:22:25Super Wildcard weekend to kick off the opening round of the NFL postseason. We will go game
00:22:31by game. Our early insights to what we are seeing based on what the numbers are telling us
00:22:37and our expectation to start the National Football League postseason. What a second hour
00:22:44it is going to be. The early lines of the NFL playoffs here on the early line.
00:22:51Looking so very forward to this here, Ben, because I do think across the board in football that maybe
00:22:59just maybe the dogs could be barking this week. Enough with the chalk, Ben. We got to get some
00:23:05dogs barking and make a few bucks here this weekend. Favorites had been killing it from
00:23:11about week 13 on until week number 18. But it really was the weekend of the dog, especially
00:23:17in those spots, Joe, where it was necessary for a team to win to secure a playoff berth or better
00:23:23their postseason seed. Those dogs were a barking or the team that had already been eliminated from
00:23:30playoff contention. But that's a thing of the past. Now it is the postseason future and the
00:23:37outlook to start this opening round Super Wildcard weekend. Six games this weekend,
00:23:43starting with a doubleheader on Saturday. Three games on Sunday, a Monday night cap in the City
00:23:49of Angels between the Rams and the Vikings. Death, taxes, and if the Texans make it to the AFC
00:23:56postseason and have to play during Wildcard weekend, they'll be that first game on Saturday
00:24:02afternoon, as is the case once again to start the postseason here in 2024 NFL season, of course,
00:24:09in 2025. But Houston, even with home field advantage, Joe, is not the favorite. That would
00:24:17be the L.A. Chargers laying two and a half points on the road in H-Town. Total stands at 42 and a
00:24:24half. Let's start with that spread. Let's start with the favorite side. Do you believe the Chargers
00:24:29are a deserving favorite to kick off the postseason? Yes, they are. Absolutely. Because
00:24:37Houston is not trustworthy. They're a hot mess, to be completely honest with you. And listen,
00:24:43give them credit. They won certainly enough games early in the season, Ben, to carry them in a very
00:24:49weak division and just hold their head above water enough to be able to get to this point. But,
00:24:56you know, beating the Indies of the world or Tennessees of the world, yay, congratulations.
00:25:04But the reality is this is going to be big boy football. And nothing that Houston has done
00:25:10has led me to believe that they are going to be somebody worth backing at this spot,
00:25:16even at home, simply because, Ben, they've been the worst ATS team in the second half of games
00:25:22this year. There is a coaching issue and a disconnect with that organization. That is not
00:25:28a team that I want to be have to rely on making adjustments in the second half of a playoff game,
00:25:35Ben, in order to win and cash a ticket. That's they've shown they can't do it. And other teams
00:25:40outcoach them. Yeah, they deserve to be a big favorite in this one at home, even at home against
00:25:46this Chargers team. Yeah, listen, I would agree with that statement, right? I would agree with
00:25:52what you are saying here on this Bolts team winners of 11 games this year. It is what Jim
00:25:58Harbaugh does better than most. He goes to an organization, whether it's the FCS level at San
00:26:04Diego, the FBS level for a dormant program at Stanford or, of course, at Michigan. And he wins
00:26:12right away. It's what he did in San Francisco as well for the 49ers. Now here, 11 and six for an
00:26:19L.A. team that sure made the postseason back in 2022, but coughed up a 27 zip lead against the
00:26:26Jacksonville Jaguars, a team in L.A. that had a win total of eight and a half. Sure, unable to unseat
00:26:33the Chiefs atop the AFC West, but still a playoff bid and now expected to maybe see the Chiefs in
00:26:41that divisional round in just a couple of weeks. But Joe, I would agree the Chargers are the
00:26:48deserving favorite. And let's look at these two teams where they stand in correspondence to what
00:26:54is expected of them. L.A. as the favorite Houston as the underdog with CJ Stroud. Since the start
00:27:01of last year, the Texans have been a great underdog. Ten and seven against the spread.
00:27:07Seven outright victories as well in these past two seasons. But most of that was last year,
00:27:13which is kind of the story of this season for the Texans. A lot of offseason optimism after winning
00:27:19the AFC South in a playoff game with a rookie head coach in D'Amico Ryans and a rookie quarterback
00:27:25in CJ Stroud. So the expectation this year was not just divisional odds on favorite.
00:27:31They made good on that, I guess you could say, with a ten and seven record in the poorest AFC
00:27:36South. But to be a true contender in the AFC, I would say entering the postseason, Joe,
00:27:41nobody expects Houston to even remotely contend for the conference championship right at this
00:27:48moment. And as an underdog, the Texans two and three against the spread this year. Both covers,
00:27:54sure, a cover, but not an outright victory. Meanwhile, the Chargers, when they were expected
00:28:00to win a game and beat up on inferior opponents, it's exactly what L.A. did. They are ten and two
00:28:08against the spread as the favored side this year, covering by an average margin of six points
00:28:15per game. Listen, the public is in love with the Chargers right now. Eighty nine percent of the
00:28:21money in terms of the spread for this matchup on FanDuel all on the bolts. But I do believe, again,
00:28:29it is the deserving side to see L.A. even as a road favorite to start our first of six
00:28:35matchups during Super Wild Card weekend. I got the better quarterback, the better coach,
00:28:42the better discipline team here in the Chargers. Yes, it's on the road, but it doesn't matter.
00:28:49The experience factor on that coaching staff under Harbaugh, listen, he understands how to
00:28:55win postseason games, right? Houston and D'Amico Ryans have not. And it didn't work out all that
00:29:01well in that playoff game last year. And it hasn't worked out well this year when they were the
00:29:07hunted instead of taking people by surprise. And nobody thought they would do anything. Well,
00:29:14everybody came hunting for you. And it's a different year. Unfortunately, it's one that I
00:29:19think they're just in over their head with this one. And could this be finally the Justin Herbert
00:29:26year that he finally breaks through because he's got the right coach in his corner? He's playing
00:29:32that way right now to start off the year. Greg Roman, the OC at L.A. and Jim Harbaugh told you
00:29:38exactly what they were going to do. Take the onus off of Herbert in the first four years of his
00:29:44career, had to do everything for the Chargers. They were going to run the football, be stout
00:29:48up front and play good defense. They went under in seven of their first eight. To end the year,
00:29:54though, the Bolts have gone over in seven of their final nine. And Justin Herbert, a big reason why
00:30:00at least 281 passing yards in the last three games for L.A., multiple passing touchdowns,
00:30:08including three in that span in the last four games. Each of those last four games,
00:30:15you see the numbers there. It's the same exact yardage prop for Herbert and C.J. Stroud. Herbert
00:30:20had only thrown for multiple passing touchdowns four times in the first 13 games for L.A.
00:30:26Now four consecutive games to end out the year with multiple passing scores. Meanwhile, Joe,
00:30:32C.J. Stroud, as compared to his NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year season last year, fewer yards,
00:30:39worse completion percentage, fewer touchdowns, more picks, worse quarterback rating, worse QBR,
00:30:46and a lot more sacks. It has not been a good year in his sophomore campaign for Stroud.
00:30:53Yeah, no, it's not. And also a lot less weapons, more injuries, and a much worse
00:31:00offensive line, Ben. Much worse. Much worse. Much worse. And that's really been the issue. Sacked
00:31:0538 times during his rookie season a year ago. Sacked 52 times in 2024. And the Chargers can
00:31:14get after the quarterback. More on the early line next. We continue to preview each and every game,
00:31:20all six matchups that we have to kick off the NFL postseason. And Super Wild Card Weekend,
00:31:26doubleheader on Saturday, first up 4.30 p.m. Eastern Time in Houston. The Texans host the
00:31:32Chargers, as we have shared L.A., a two-and-a-half-point road favorite. Not the story
00:31:38for the nightcap on Saturday. In fact, it is the largest spread. It is Wild Card Weekend
00:31:44and a divisional duel between the Ravens and the Steelers. Again, Baltimore is the biggest
00:31:51favorite of the entirety of the weekend, all six matchups included. Nine-and-a-half-point spread
00:31:58in favor of the flock. The total 44 and a hook. Joe, these two teams know each other incredibly
00:32:05well. So when you see that nine-and-a-half-point spread for how often these games are often
00:32:10competitive, is it too large? Or does it feel fitting for a reason for where these two teams
00:32:16stand entering the NFL playoffs? It's always fitting for a reason, Ben. They're almost a
00:32:23double-digit dog for a reason. This, to me, is pretty simple. We've got two teams heading in
00:32:30completely opposite directions. And before you start quoting me any great Mike Tomlin numbers
00:32:38as a dog and all of this stuff, and yeah, just look at what Tomlin's record over the last couple
00:32:44of years is in the playoffs, guys. It's terrible. And why is it terrible? Because this team tends
00:32:51to run out of gas when it matters the most, unfortunately. They are taking in a four-game
00:32:56losing streak and an offense that is completely lost. And we're not talking lost as in, oh,
00:33:03they'll be fine, Ben. They'll just flip a switch and everything will be good. No, this team is lost.
00:33:09Russ looks cooked, which was always the biggest concern the minute that they went to him and
00:33:14traded for him and started him, that this wasn't a version of Russ that was going to show up at
00:33:20some point. Unfortunately for the Steelers, it showed up at the worst time at the end of the
00:33:25year. Now they're rolling into a game with a team that is rolling the other way, has the better
00:33:30defense, better quarterback, better offense at home. This has got rout written all over it here,
00:33:37Ben. Sorry, Steelers. What you have done in the past doesn't matter anymore. What have you done
00:33:43for me lately? And the answer, Ben, is absolutely nothing. Of course, these two teams split their
00:33:49season series when things were going well for the Steelers at home in Pittsburgh, even as a home
00:33:56underdog, catching about three points in the Steel City. Russ in Pittsburgh won outright against
00:34:02Baltimore as that underdog, 18 to 16. But that was at home as a dog. The last time these two teams
00:34:11played just a couple of weekends ago. Of course, as we know it in Pittsburgh in week six, or excuse
00:34:19me, in Baltimore in week 16, the Ravens were a touchdown favorite. They covered that number
00:34:24winning by three scores, 34 to 17 over a total around 44 and a hook, which is where the total is
00:34:33this time. Joe, we'll get to the points we expect in just a moment. But since these two, since 2011,
00:34:40between these two bitter rivals in the AFC North, there have only been two spreads. This will be the
00:34:47third. There have only been two spreads north of a touchdown. We were at a full touchdown for the
00:34:54most recent matchup a couple of weekends ago in week 16, but only two times since 2011 north of
00:35:03two touchdowns. Most recently in 2020, the Ravens were the double digit dog on the road in Pittsburgh,
00:35:09ended up covering that number. And in Pittsburgh, a couple of years ago, back in 2015, the Ravens
00:35:16actually won outright as a double digit dog against the Steelers, very different things
00:35:22this time around. But familiarity, of course, is a part of consideration and where these two teams
00:35:29enter this matchup. Baltimore playing great football down the stretch. Lamar Jackson,
00:35:36looking like an NFL MVP contender. Once again, you see the numbers there. The Ravens defense
00:35:42getting better. The offense is elite for the Steelers. Very different story, Joe. They have
00:35:48dropped four straight games to end out the regular season after winning six of the first seven starts
00:35:54that Russell Wilson made, including that upset outright victory against the Ravens back in the
00:36:01Steel City. In those games, Pittsburgh, in the first seven starts that Russ had made, had scored
00:36:07at least 26 points in five of seven in their four games to end out the year. Just one and seven
00:36:14against the spread as well, all as an underdog, scoring 17 points or fewer, Joe, in those four
00:36:22straight Ls to end out the regular season. Yeah, just the thing to me as well, Ben, is I do think
00:36:30that the Ravens defense is maybe the most underrated crew heading into these playoffs.
00:36:36Why? Because of the rough start that they had through the first month and a half of the season.
00:36:41But while nobody was paying attention and everyone's talking about Lamar and Derek Henry
00:36:49and this offense and that's all fine and dandy, but the reality is this defense over the last
00:36:56couple of months, Ben, has been absolutely lights out. And for a struggling quarterback
00:37:02and offense like Russ Wilson is going to be bringing to the table here on the road in that
00:37:06environment, that defense is going to be hungry. And on the flip side, that Pittsburgh defense
00:37:13has fallen off a cliff, Ben, over the last month. Again, two teams heading in totally different
00:37:20directions to think they can flip a switch and become playoff Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh
00:37:25Steelers. I think they're out of your mind. Listen, Joe, I would have to agree. By the way,
00:37:30Zach or the new defensive coordinator for Baltimore, former Ravens linebacker and linebackers
00:37:36coach under Mike McDonald, the last few seasons, they have figured whatever it was they needed to
00:37:42fix. He's really young. I think he's 31 or 32. They have done a great job with the Ravens. And
00:37:48last time these two teams met back in week 16, being decided by three scores, seeing this spread
00:37:55at nine and a half points for a playoff game between the Ravens and the Steelers is alarming
00:38:00because prior to week 16, the previous nine meetings between Pittsburgh and Baltimore,
00:38:06all decided by a single score, five of the nine, a field goal or fewer. But again, you see the
00:38:14Ravens as a touchdown favorite in week 16. It wasn't even close to enough. Nine and a half,
00:38:21the largest spread of all of super wild card weekend, as Joe said, at the very start of this
00:38:26breakdown does feel rather fitting. We'll continue to go around super wild card weekend. And our
00:38:33final game of three of the AFC, the buck live right here on the early line on sports grid.
00:38:39Again, the early line living up to its name, the early lines early on this week for super
00:38:46wild card weekend in the national football league, the structure of the weekend, the opening round
00:38:51of the post season, two games on Saturday, each in the AFC three games on Sunday, where the first
00:38:59is an AFC matchup between the two seed, the bills in the seventh seed, the Broncos. Then we get to
00:39:04all of the games within the NFC. So the first three out of the AFC, the final three of the
00:39:10weekend hailing from the NFC Joe and in the AFC, we've got two very large numbers, the two largest
00:39:18numbers of the weekend, the only two numbers that are higher than five points. We talked about
00:39:23Baltimore largest favorite of the weekend hosting Pittsburgh, nine and a half point spread the bills
00:39:29hosting the Broncos in eight and a half point number to kick off our triple header on Sunday
00:39:35in Orchard Park, total stands at 47 and a half for the Broncos to be here is a season of success
00:39:42with a rookie quarterback year number two at mile high under Sean Payton, but Joe, as the odds
00:39:48makers expect, that's probably the end of the road for Denver. This begins what Buffalo is hoping
00:39:56can be a historic post season, a fifth consecutive AFC East divisional crown, but unlike the previous
00:40:03four, this time the bills are hoping to get to a super bowl and not be ousted by their postseason
00:40:11nemesis, the Kansas city chiefs. What do you make of the opening round matchup between the bills
00:40:16and the Broncos on Sunday? Well, I get ready for points, man, because I would imagine this game
00:40:25is going to fly over this total. Another one that if you can get eight and a half,
00:40:33you better lock it into a teaser now because it won't be there as we get closer to kickoff,
00:40:39Ben, because the books will protect against those eight and a half down to under a field goal for
00:40:45Buffalo as best they can. So don't be shocked if this thing is nine, nine and a half by the time
00:40:51we get the kickoff. And again, another one of these situations where it's warranted. I mean,
00:40:56kudos to Sean Payton coach of the year, rookie quarterback, nobody saw them doing this. But the
00:41:02reality is at this point in the season, Ben experience matters. And there is no more experienced
00:41:08team than what Josh Allen and the Buffalo bring bills are going to bring to the table. The Broncos
00:41:14are celebrating their first playoff appearance in what eight years. Yay. The reality is you are
00:41:23you're going to lose this game. You're probably going to lose it epically, not because you're a
00:41:28terrible team or to take anything away from what they did. But there are levels to this here, Ben.
00:41:33And right now, Denver is they've got to go through some growing pains with Bo Nix and this young
00:41:38squad. I do think they're going to have some success scoring points. But ultimately, it's
00:41:43Josh Allen and the bills that pull away, cover this number and get it up and over to 47 and a
00:41:48half. Yeah, Joe, I think it's hard to fault that thought as well. You are right. Denver playing
00:41:54in its first NFL postseason since 2015, when Peyton Manning was under center and the Broncos
00:42:01won a Super Bowl. This was a Denver team that entered the season with a five and a half win
00:42:07total to be here is a resounding success to find the future of your franchise in Bo Nix,
00:42:13a resounding success. But it probably comes to the end of the road in Western New York on Sunday.
00:42:19Just to note, it is January in Orchard Park, not expecting snow, maybe a dusting on Saturday, but
00:42:27by Buffalo weather standards, pretty good Sunday wind less than 10 miles per hour, 30 degrees
00:42:34cloudy. Not all that shabby for Western New York to kick off our triple header on Sunday
00:42:41afternoon. And Joe, it could be a resounding statement for Josh Allen. NFL MVP consideration
00:42:48is a regular season thing, but a time to prove that he is the true winner of this award. He will
00:42:55enter the postseason at the end of the regular season as a minus 470 favorite to win the NFL
00:43:01MVP hardware. The first of his career, hoping for even more postseason accolades to get Buffalo
00:43:09back to a Super Bowl in 2020, they reached the AFC championship game bounced by the chiefs,
00:43:16the last three years, the end of the road for the bills in that divisional round quickly,
00:43:22Joe on Buffalo. Do you think their playoff outlook looks different this time around in 2024?
00:43:28Absolutely. I've been saying it all year. This looks and feels like a different Buffalo team.
00:43:34The moment is not, this is why experience matters. Then in the playoffs, you've got to lose
00:43:41before you can win sometimes. And I think Buffalo is ready to take that next step.
00:43:46Right now, Buffalo has the second best price to win the AFC at plus 250, less than a dollar behind
00:43:54Kansas city. Now to the NFC side of things up next, we go game by game in chronological order
00:44:00for super wild card weekend to kick off the NFL postseason and the opening half hour of our second
00:44:07hour here on this Tuesday morning on the early line, we previewed the first three games of the
00:44:12weekend, all conveniently in the AFC. Now starting with our second of three of our Sunday triple
00:44:19header, we transitioned to the other conference in the NFC. It's the two seed Philadelphia in the
00:44:25seven seed, the green Bay Packers Joe earlier on in the show, we showed you the injury news around
00:44:32the NFL, Jordan love a right elbow injury, a contusion from this past Sunday that does not
00:44:39seem to be all that serious. And he is expected to play this weekend, but not great news when
00:44:45your quarterback has injury questions starting off the postseason. But you could say the same
00:44:50thing for Jalen hurts and Philadelphia exited the opening half of the Eagles last loss of the year
00:44:57back in week 16 against the Washington commanders in concussion protocol did not play week 17. It
00:45:06was Kenny Pickett. They clinched the division against the Cowboys. So nobody needed to play
00:45:10in week number 18. So it was Tanner McKee against the Giants and still a victory for the birds. So
00:45:17we didn't really check in on Jalen hurts. We just knew that he remained in concussion protocol,
00:45:22but probably a precaution right to get ready for the postseason. Well, as of yesterday afternoon,
00:45:29hurts still in concussion protocol tomorrow begins the full practice week for Philadelphia.
00:45:37If we see a DNP or a limited participant on that practice report, what will that mean for hurts his
00:45:44status to start off the postseason? And Joe, what would that mean for the spread? I pose the
00:45:49question kind of to you to end off one of those segments in the opening hour is this four and a
00:45:55half point number, the largest spread of our three matchups in the NFC, by the way, is it taking into
00:46:02account that Jalen hurts his status is uncertain or that hurts expects to be ready to go on Sunday
00:46:09afternoon? What say you? Well, I don't think it'll get to a touchdown bed. If that's what people are
00:46:16thinking. Uh, I do think that defensively, and I think the way to approach this is via the total
00:46:23in this game, because whether Jalen hurts plays or doesn't play, then to me, this is a dead
00:46:29under game. The Philadelphia defense is what's going to elevate this team and carry it through
00:46:37any sort of turmoil with or inability of Jalen hurts to be able to play here. No Christian
00:46:44Watson means now all of a sudden that limits the Packers explosiveness for big plays down
00:46:50the field here. I do love what Green Bay has done defensively, but also Jair Alexander not going to
00:46:57be playing also for Green Bay. I just think that this is two teams that are going to run the ball
00:47:05two teams that are going to limit the other what the other team wants to do defensively.
00:47:11So if I'm looking at this game, whether Jalen hurts plays or not, I'm backing the under and I
00:47:16would get it now, Ben, because if he's not playing, I think the biggest move is going to be on the
00:47:23total. It's not going to be on the side. I think Philadelphia is still your favorite one way or the
00:47:29other here. And if he does get announced that he's playing again, I don't know that the total moves
00:47:35all that much, but I bet you this thing gets closer to maybe five and a half, six, if he is announced.
00:47:42It would be really interesting, Joe, to see what happens to the spread and total movement
00:47:47with the clarification, if you will, on Jalen hurts his status. Again, Jordan Love expects to
00:47:53play Christian Watson now out for the remainder of this season. His status even for early 2025
00:47:59is in question, but hurts is in concussion protocol. Unless he clears protocol, he cannot
00:48:06go. Is that status going to change in the next 48 to 72 hours? If it does not, what happens to the
00:48:14line? I'd say it would dip under three, but still probably see Philadelphia closing as a favorite
00:48:20against green Bay, maybe back to three and a half. I'm not sure if he plays, could it get closer to
00:48:25five and a half, six and a half, the line opened up at three in a hook in favor of Philadelphia.
00:48:3145 and a half is an intriguing total Joe. These two teams will maybe end their season, at least
00:48:38for one of them against one another where their season started. But in Sao Paulo, it was that
00:48:43Brazilian opener on a Friday night, Philadelphia, victorious 3429 in a high scoring game, but nobody
00:48:50could get a grip on that slippery surface in Brazil. Meanwhile, for the Packers this year
00:48:56as an underdog, they've been darn good three and two against the spread, including a couple of
00:49:02outright victories, but those outright victories with Malik Willis only booked as a dog were the
00:49:09Packers twice with Jordan love and a true underdog two points or greater, a slight pick them price
00:49:15against Minnesota a couple of weekends ago, but both of those games for green Bay as the dog
00:49:22against Detroit, one cover, but two losses outright. If you even include closing as a slight
00:49:29underdog against the Vikings, they lost that game outright as well. So the Packers not expected to
00:49:36win against the best competition this year. Green Bay is really falter just one in five in the NFC
00:49:42North conveniently, a division where they went winless against those two other teams, the Vikings
00:49:49and the Lions that have won at least 14 games, which is what Philly has done as well.
00:49:54Yeah. And I mean, listen, green Bay, you know, they had to endure a injury to Jordan love to
00:50:01start the year, Ben, but then Matt LaFleur works his magic, brings in Malik Willis and somehow
00:50:08steals a couple of wins there, buys enough time to be able to get Jordan love back. And while
00:50:14they were off and running, I mean, defensively, they've been great, but the Packers have been
00:50:18very good against lesser competition here. You mentioned it, their record against the
00:50:24teams in their own division, the better competition, not great. This will be one
00:50:31of the best defenses that they're going to see not having Watson hurts. But I think they've
00:50:38established the running game this year for a reason. And I do think they're going to lean
00:50:43on that running game though, to try and do anything they can in order to wear down that
00:50:49defense of the Eagles. Good luck. I think this is going to be one of those old fashioned January
00:50:56cold weather games where whichever, whoever wins the, uh, the trenches is going to win this game,
00:51:02but it ain't going to be high scoring. I can promise you that. Whether or not expected to
00:51:07be great Sunday afternoon in Philadelphia, that's something to consider as well.
00:51:12Outdoor playoff football, the Eagles, the two seat, of course, green Bay plays at the frozen
00:51:18tundra. That is not overly shocking news to this Packers organization, both teams stout defensively.
00:51:24You see where things stand for both of these teams, both allowing fewer than 20 points per
00:51:30game on average, the Eagles, one of the best scoring defenses in all of the NFL. And Joe,
00:51:37I just would say as well, Philadelphia started this year two and two, right? Some questions,
00:51:41where was this Eagles team in the opening month? They won 12 of their last 13 and out the regular
00:51:47season covering in eight of those 12 wins under in eight of their last 13 games as well. Defense
00:51:56being the main reason why Joe, let me ask you about the NFC as a whole. The lions will enter
00:52:03the post season as the short favorites to win the conference championship. Does it feel like a tier
00:52:08of two or is it more uncertain to you and up in the air in the NFC? Is it the lions, the Eagles
00:52:14in the NFC championship, or might we see a couple of other teams be able to make some noise?
00:52:21Yeah, I find the Rams fascinating here given their path and their ability defensively. Another
00:52:29one of these teams that got better as the season went on defensively, ton of experience, great
00:52:35coaching, you know, Super Bowl winning quarterback. You know, the Rams have all the ingredients to be
00:52:41that dark horse, but so does Tampa. I mean, what else can we say about Tampa, Ben? They've been
00:52:46there, they've done that. For sure. Tampa could very well play spoiler to some of those teams on
00:52:53the left hand column there, Ben. To me, that's where the value lies in the NFC. Those prices
00:53:00on teams that have a postseason pedigree, the Buccaneers in a home game, the Rams in a home
00:53:07game. We'll talk about Tampa's home game up next against the rookie QB, Jaden Daniels and the
00:53:13Washington Commanders on the other side of the break here on SportsScript. We continue with our
00:53:19preview and breakdown of each of the six matchups to kick off the NFL postseason, the opening round
00:53:26or better yet now known as Super Wild Card Weekend. Three days of NFL playoff action, a doubleheader
00:53:33on Saturday, a tripleheader on Sunday, and a Monday night cap we will get to up next. Sunday
00:53:40night football in Tampa, Florida. It's the Buccaneers, the champions of the NFC South for a
00:53:46fourth consecutive season hosting the Rook. Jaden Daniels and first year head coach outside the
00:53:51nation's capital, that being Dan Quinn. These two teams also played each other way back in week
00:53:58number one, much like the Packers and the Eagles. It was a welcome to the NFL moment for Jaden
00:54:04Daniels who struggled in that game, one of the few games he looked like a rookie this year. Tampa
00:54:09victorious in a big way, 37-20. The Buccaneers covering as the favorite side in that matchup and
00:54:16once again the Bucs a favorite, a flat three. That field goal number in favor of Baker and his
00:54:23Buccaneers, the highest total of Super Wild Card Weekend at 50 and a half. Joe, what are the
00:54:29numbers telling you for this 3-6 matchup in the NFC? Hurry up and bet the over. I mean, just
00:54:36bet the over, folks. Forget about who wins the game, bet the over. And here's why. Now I'll give
00:54:42Dan Quinn credit defensively. They have improved. I think having Bobby Wagner and Frankie Loubout
00:54:50there, having that stability in the linebacker position has really helped this defense. But the
00:54:57problem is the secondary, they don't have, even when they made the trade there with New Orleans,
00:55:03they don't have any playmakers. They don't, this is not what I would consider a playoff defense,
00:55:09right? Which is odd because it's Dan Quinn who's a defensive guy, but there's only so much at this
00:55:15point that you can work with. And on the flip side, you've got a Tampa team, another defensive
00:55:21minded head coach in Todd Bowles, who's great against the run, but that secondary is just as
00:55:29bad as Washington's, which means this is going to be a shootout. You got Baker Mayfield experienced
00:55:36versus Jaden Daniels, great season, but a rookie. Bucs at home, they've been in a ton of shootouts
00:55:45here. I think the inability to be able to run the ball for Washington is what's going to cause
00:55:50them problems. They're going to ask too much of Jaden Daniels. Ultimately, I think they'll fall
00:55:54short, but this should be a fun one as all the props in the world, Ben, give me Bucky Irving
00:56:02overs, give me Mayfield over, Jaden Daniels over, Evans. They're going to be throwing the ball a
00:56:09lot in this one, I believe. The commanders, despite having a rookie quarterback, a preseason
00:56:15total around seven and a hook and a first year head coach in Dan Quinn, only an underdog by the
00:56:21end of the year, six times, three, two, and one against the spread, but all three covers an
00:56:27outright victory. Most recently in week number 16, winning outright in Philadelphia. Now for the
00:56:34Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a favorite this season for Baker Mayfield and the Bucs, the numbers,
00:56:42not all that crazy, five and four against the spread, but here's where Tampa's playoff pedigree
00:56:49comes into the conversation. Todd Bowles has been there now for a while, leading the Bucs to
00:56:54multiple divisional crowns. Baker last year, picking up where Tom Brady had left off, leading
00:57:00Tampa to the NFC South divisional championship and a playoff win at home against another NFC East
00:57:08team, that being the Philadelphia Eagles. I think the number is fair. It is a flat number of three,
00:57:14a key number in NFL circles. We'll see how critical it is come Sunday night. What can we expect Joe
00:57:23of Jaden Daniels, who was going to win offensive rookie of the year, no doubt, and has looked
00:57:28phenomenal in the most clutch of spots each and every step of the way throughout his first year
00:57:35in the NFL, but a playoff stage is a significant beast to itself. 235 in a hook is his prop through
00:57:43the air, one and a half passing touchdowns, and of course, utilizing his legs, 45 and a half on
00:57:49the ground. What is your expectation for Washington's rookie signal caller in his first ever
00:57:55playoff game come Sunday night? Listen, the kid has been phenomenal. I mean, as I had said at
00:58:01band on this show from the draft on that I thought he was going to be the talk of last year's draft.
00:58:09While everyone, I wasn't a big Caleb Williams fan, I'm still not a Caleb Williams fan, but I said
00:58:15Jaden Daniels is going to be the one guy in this draft that teams wish they had spent more time
00:58:21with. Bo Nix, another guy, obviously we've seen how well he's done as a rookie, but you got two
00:58:29rookie quarterbacks in the postseason on teams, Ben, that are not used to being in the postseason.
00:58:36The Broncos haven't been there forever, and guess what? Neither has Washington, so what's going to
00:58:41happen is I have a feeling both those teams are going to have to rely on their rookie quarterbacks
00:58:47to do more than what they're capable of, and I think ultimately they're going to ask Jaden Daniels
00:58:54to do a lot in this game. I do think the passing yards is a little light given the fact that I see
00:59:00them trailing in this game, not playing from in front, so I do think any sort of passing yards
00:59:07prop, even passing TDs, I think that is a pretty good look with him because I think he's going to
00:59:13be playing from behind here, Ben. Washington, the third best passing defense statistically this year
00:59:21in terms of yardage allowed per game, but Baker's prop feels a little bit light as well, 238.5 for
00:59:28a guy that has gone over that number with at least 280 in five of the final seven for Tampa Bay.
00:59:35Multiple passing touchdowns for Baker in each of the last five games for the Buccaneers as well,
00:59:40albeit with interceptions thrown in four of those five games as well. A really intriguing matchup
00:59:48for a Buccaneers team, Joe. It's a lot different than the teams we saw under Tom Brady even last
00:59:53year in Mayfield's first year in Tampa. They run the football so much better with Bucky Irving
01:00:00against a Washington team that has been exposed at times on the ground this season. Keep an eye on
01:00:07that and also keep an eye on a matchup that we love individually. Marshawn Latimore, now a member
01:00:14of the Commander's Secondary against Mike Evans on the other side for the Buccaneers. They have
01:00:21quite a heated history, if you will. Some conversation that if Latimore was still in New
01:00:26Orleans last week, ain't no way Mike Evans getting that final nine-yard reception to get to 1K.
01:00:31Well, now here we are in the postseason. The Monday Night Cap, the Super Wild Card Weekend in LA.
01:00:38Now, live right here on the Early Line on Sports Grid, it is our final segment in hour number two.
01:00:44It has gone exactly to plan. Each and every segment, all six in this second hour, a preview
01:00:50of each and every game on Super Wild Card Weekend. The first five in the books. So let's get to the
01:00:56Monday Night Cap inside SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. The Rams and the Vikings. Minnesota,
01:01:02a 14-win team. But the five-seed in the NFC playoff bracket has to go on the road to start
01:01:10off its postseason, and they will do so as an ever-so-slight favorite against Matthew Stafford
01:01:16in the NFC West winning Rams. Total 47-and-a-half. Joe, when this line first came out, it was two-and-a-half
01:01:23points already in favor of the Vikings. Already, we have seen market movement back to LA. How do
01:01:29you approach the sixth and final game of the opening round of the NFL postseason?
01:01:34Yeah, well, this is where it's going to get interesting, right? On this Monday night game,
01:01:39where you've got maybe the worst matchup for Minnesota having to go on the road to take on
01:01:48this kind of experienced team in the Rams, whose defense then ended the year as one of the best
01:01:56in the NFL at getting to the quarterback, rushing the quarterback, and not giving up a ton of points
01:02:04here down the stretch. So, this young defense really came together and became quietly one of
01:02:11the best defenses in the NFL at the end, and we just watched the Vikings. And what happens when
01:02:17you get pressure on Sam Donald, didn't we? That offensive line, it was always the concern with
01:02:23the Minnesota Vikings when they lost to Arashot and others there. What was going to happen? Well,
01:02:29you haven't played great defenses, but boy, they got Anzalone back, and they were all over. They
01:02:36went after Sam Donald. What do you think the Rams are going to do at home? They're going to go after
01:02:42Sam Donald. I don't know that Sam Donald has an answer for that. If Sam Donald gets all day to
01:02:48throw, then guess what? He's pretty dangerous. I think he's proven that. But I don't think the
01:02:53Rams are going to let him. I think Stafford and company are going to have success because you're
01:02:59going to, what, blitz Stafford and think he's not going to tear you apart? I think this is a terrible
01:03:04matchup for Minnesota. I think the wrong team happens to be favored in it as well.
01:03:10And it's moving that way, Joe, and maybe you're thinking, all right, a lot of people are
01:03:14considering that to be the case, that the Rams should be the slight home favorite even at home.
01:03:1954% of the money on Minnesota in terms of the spread, 65% of the overall bets backing Sammy D
01:03:27and the Vikings. Joe, I would have to agree. And really, when you look at the Rams as an underdog,
01:03:34you can point to the first matchup against Minnesota as the turning point of this entire
01:03:39season for Los Angeles that led them to be back into the playoffs. The Rams in the opening month
01:03:46and a half of this year, incredibly banged up. Pukanukuwa, Cooper Cup, the entirety of the
01:03:51offensive line, it felt, trying to protect the veteran Matthew Stafford. The Rams started one
01:03:56and four. Then in week number six, they beat the Raiders on a Sunday, didn't cover, ugly game,
01:04:03did just enough to win 22-15. The story of the season, Joe, was a short week, Thursday night
01:04:10game at home in SoFi against this trending Vikings team that had started a perfect 5-0,
01:04:17had just dropped its first game of the year, would Minnesota drop a second consecutive.
01:04:22They were a two and a half point favorite on the road in LA. The Rams won outright 30-20,
01:04:29but the Rams down the stretch in the final four games of the year were elite defensively. Well,
01:04:36after they gave up 42 to the Bills and won by scoring 44 points, they only allowed these many
01:04:43points in their last three games with the full starters out there. Six to San Francisco,
01:04:48nine on the road to the New York Jets, nine back at home against the Arizona Cardinals.
01:04:54And in two of those games I just mentioned against the Bills and the Niners on a short week,
01:05:00the Rams won outright as an underdog. Since that start of the year, a one and four start for LA,
01:05:07they've been a dog four times, three and one against the spread, three and one outright as
01:05:12well. They did cover as a touchdown dog in the regular season finale against Seattle,
01:05:17so technically four and one against the spread, but in terms of when everybody is played and the
01:05:22Rams are getting points, it's been a recipe for success for Los Angeles this year. Yeah, no,
01:05:28it has. And again, I'm a big believer in experience matters this time of year, Ben,
01:05:35and you've got a ton of experience on that side of the ball here. So I think Stafford, McVay,
01:05:43Pukonukuwa, the weapons, they can go toe to toe with anybody. It's the defense that's going to
01:05:48make the difference. I expected more overreaction for the Vikings getting beat bad in Detroit,
01:05:54but the public's still betting Minnesota. That is intriguing. Hour three comes away next.
01:05:59Live right here on the Early Line on Sports Screen. We welcome you to hour number three,
01:06:04our third and final here on TEL. He is Gervin Arie, I am Ben Stevens. A second hour dedicated
01:06:11to the Early Line previews, the show living up to its billing of all six NFL playoff matchups
01:06:18during Super Wild Card Weekend. And it's still the Early Line, at least to start here in this
01:06:24opening half hour of our third and final. A preview of the college football playoff semifinals,
01:06:31which begin once again on Thursday night in Miami, Joe's neck of the woods, boots on the ground
01:06:38for the Orange Bowl between Penn State and Notre Dame and Friday evening in the Lone Star State.
01:06:44It's the in-state team in the Longhorns of Texas taking on the Buckeyes of Ohio State. The Early
01:06:50Line preview and breakdown of both of our two CFP semis this upcoming week. We'll also talk
01:06:58some NBA action, some hardwood handicaps around college basketball, and later on in the hour,
01:07:04John Rothstein joins us to break down what is a lovely Tuesday night slate in the month of January
01:07:11with conference action all over the country, Joe. Yeah, and I think shaping up to be one heck
01:07:19of a finale and crowning of a national championship here in college football, Ben. These two games
01:07:26I'm looking very, very forward to here. But keeping in mind, the chalk has rained in this
01:07:33year's college football playoffs, been all about the chalk here, Ben. We'll see if that changes.
01:07:39Only one dog has even covered a number. That was Arizona State in double overtime of that first
01:07:46quarterfinal on New Year's Day in the Peach Bowl against Texas. But no dogs out, right? That's one
01:07:53and seven against the spread, by the way, in our eight first matchups that we have seen in the
01:07:58first ever 12-team college football playoff. Might some dogs be barking during the opening round of
01:08:05the NFL postseason? And what might it mean for the conference championship races and both the
01:08:10AFC and the NFC to decide a Super Bowl champion during the 2024 NFL season? It was our question
01:08:18to you, the AFC or the NFC, which one is more compelling? We find out together in Fade the Public.
01:08:25At SportsGrid on Twitter, entering the playoffs, which conference race is more intriguing,
01:08:30the NFC or the AFC? Your two options available. In most of the public, nearly 55% of the votes
01:08:39backing the NFC. A little bit more intrigue in that side of the NFL than the AFC. Joe,
01:08:46I'm going to ask you a question. Which one is more compelling, the NFC or the AFC?
01:08:53Then the AFC. Joe, I agreed with the public. Which way did you vote?
01:08:58No, I do not. I agree with. No, no. I think the most intriguing situation
01:09:05is coming out of the AFC. You actually have a team for the first time in a trillion years
01:09:11that could go three for three in Super Bowls. You've got a Chiefs team here who a lot of people
01:09:19thought would take a step back this year, and yet they rattle off a 15-2 regular season.
01:09:25And they have, again, the same old foes have to go at them. Baltimore or Buffalo. Will either of
01:09:32those two teams be able to get past the reigning champs, the Kansas City Chiefs? If they can't, Ben,
01:09:40then there is no bigger story than the Chiefs going for number three here. I think it's,
01:09:47I think the AFC provides way more drama leading up to the big game. And then if it's Kansas City
01:09:53left standing, what's the bigger storyline come Super Bowl Sunday? There is no bigger storyline
01:10:00than Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs once again sitting on top of the world and
01:10:05possibly doing something we haven't seen for a while here in the NFL. Yep, that is very,
01:10:11very true, Joe. I would agree because that is the story in the AFC. It is that tier of three
01:10:19that really has represented itself throughout the entirety of this season in some form or fashion or
01:10:25order. The Chiefs, the Bills, the Ravens. There were times where Baltimore had the second best
01:10:31price ahead of Buffalo. There were times the Bills were the favorites to win the AFC championship,
01:10:37even in front of their playoff nemesis, that being Kansas City. But I think one of the reasons
01:10:42maybe the public is fading that idea, although it is pretty close, is because it is the same teams.
01:10:50It is that familiarity. But with that, it can be a very compelling story as well, because the
01:10:57Chiefs have the benefit of the doubt. The Chiefs have the postseason pedigree. The Chiefs have the
01:11:03playoff in Super Bowl success. Six years with Patrick Mahomes as the starting quarterback,
01:11:09this is year number seven. All six seasons, the Chiefs have played in the AFC championship game.
01:11:16Four of those six, a Super Bowl appearance. Three of those four, a Lombardi trophy. And unlike last
01:11:23year, where does the AFC title run through this season? That would be Arrowhead, where it was the
01:11:29first five years. The Chiefs proved they could win at home in KCBO, and then last year proved they
01:11:34could go on the road, even when they were not expected to as an underdog, and beat both Buffalo
01:11:40and Baltimore. It is a time for the Bills and the Ravens, likewise, Joe, to prove things they have
01:11:47not so far, and turn around the narrative of lack of playoff success. Buffalo has now won the AFC
01:11:54East for a fifth straight season. In the previous four, they have been bounced by the Chiefs three
01:12:01of the four years. They have been bounced in the divisional round each of the last three. They have
01:12:06yet to play in a Super Bowl with Josh Allen as a starting quarterback and an AFC East winning
01:12:13quarterback. Lamar Jackson, despite being the one seed each last season, and way back in 2019,
01:12:20each of the two years when he has individually won the NFL MVP award, they are just two and four,
01:12:26that being the Ravens, in terms of their overall playoff record. You can see how closely tied
01:12:32these three teams are at the top. The three top seeds, the three best prices, separated by less
01:12:39than a dollar and a half to win the AFC championship. But what does stand out, Joe, about the NFC
01:12:46is the perceived idea it is up in the air. And really that starts during wild card weekend.
01:12:53All three of the games feature a spread of four and a half or fewer. In fact, the Rams as a home
01:13:01team are an underdog, but just getting a point and a half against the Vikings. The Bucs, just a flat
01:13:06field goal favorite against the Commanders. The largest spread is Philadelphia as a four and a
01:13:12half point home favorite against Green Bay. If it is a little bit tighter, it's expected to be more
01:13:18competitive. And thus, Joe, maybe some upsets abound in the NFC side of things. Yeah. And listen,
01:13:25there is no doubt there is some intrigue here in the NFC because I also think it's much more
01:13:32wide open in the NFC than the AFC, to your point, Ben. And yes, if there is a dark horse coming from
01:13:42to win a championship, it's probably not coming from the AFC. It's going to be coming from the
01:13:49NFC. So could the Rams or the Bucs make a run at this? Or the Lions are just too easy to be
01:13:58chalky here. Could anybody else on that list actually overtake them from that, from a betting
01:14:04perspective? Very intriguing here from a overall narrative. My goodness. What does it say about the
01:14:11state of the NFL? If one team can be that dominant over this stretch? Oh, wait a minute. The Patriots
01:14:18did that. Did Tom Brady? Oh, yeah, that's right. Never mind, Ben. It happens every decade, apparently.
01:14:24Yeah, it is really what we are going to see still in Kansas City. Joe, I still find it unlikely,
01:14:31at least at this stage, I would say not worth a bet or a wager on Casey not winning the AFC
01:14:39until I see the Bills or the Ravens change it. I don't think there is actually value on either of
01:14:44their prices. The NFC is where you can find it. But I do really think despite the Vikings having
01:14:50a sensational season, the Packers having a great season, the value is really with the Bucs and the
01:14:56Rams in my estimation. But I still expect it to be the Lions and the Eagles, one versus two
01:15:02in the NFC championship game in just a few weeks.