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00:00live right here on the early line on sports grid. We are just
00:03two days out from the start of wild card weekend and the
00:06opening round of the National Football League postseason. So,
00:09to take an early look at all of that, especially from a prop
00:13perspective as the matchups are starting to open up those prop
00:17markets. Who better than TV? Tom Becchio of Sports Grid live
00:21right here on this Thursday on TEL. Becchio, we go rapid fire
00:25around all five of our matchups this weekend. Of course, a
00:28sixth and final on Monday night but the five until we see you
00:32again on Monday morning as well. Excited for your prop
00:36perspective and thank you for joining us. Of course, like you
00:39said, rapid fire. We got a lot to get to. None of this
00:42preamble stuff. Let's just hop right in. Mm. Let's go right to
00:46it, Becchio. Let's go right in. Chargers and the Texans in our
00:50first game of two on Saturday. Two and a half point spread in
00:54favor of the Bolts. Total still standing at forty-two and a
00:58half. We see a road team as a slight favorite in Agetown.
01:03What are the numbers telling you, Becchio, about how this
01:06game is expected to be played early on Saturday? Probably a
01:10much slower game and we have seen the Texans offense like be
01:13I don't wanna even say mediocre like less than mediocre over
01:16the past few weeks and granted they didn't play their starters
01:19all of last week they pulled them we know that but the game
01:22on Christmas against the Ravens they two points via the safety
01:25so like their offense has been legitimately bad over the let's
01:29call it the past three weeks or so and now we're going up
01:31against the Chargers defense which is pretty solid so I do
01:34expect the Chargers to be you know out in front and the
01:37Texans to be playing you know from behind so it would
01:40probably lead me to the under on Joe Mixon on some of those
01:43props. He's also been relatively average over the past
01:45few weeks. I also I've been looking at some JK Dobbins
01:48unders when it comes to his receptions or receiving yards
01:51just because if they are out in front, he won't be playing
01:53that role and we should be playing a big role for her
01:56Justin Herbert or Latin McConkey. That's where I really
01:59wanna look. I'm also pretty consistent when it comes to the
02:02under overall in this game and maybe a Texans team total. I
02:05just don't see this as being a high scoring game at all
02:09Saturday night football prime time Steelers Ravens bring your
02:12Advil for this one and by the way, the Ravens close to a
02:16double digit favorite at the fan blue sports book minus nine
02:18and a half time in a total of 43 and a half can Pittsburgh
02:21hang around and also maybe some player props that you're
02:23looking forward to in this game too. II really don't think the
02:27Steelers can hang around and I'm almost tempted to take the
02:30over on this because I think the Ravens can like get there
02:32by themselves like they win this game 31 to 17 like that's
02:36not out of the question. I don't think we'd be shocked if
02:38that was the answer like the Steelers not putting up a whole
02:40lot of points on offense. The essentially the Ravens would
02:43cause this game to go over. I'm gonna say 80% by themselves
02:46with their offense and we will see the Steelers playing from
02:49behind. Despite that, I actually wanna take the under
02:51on Pat Fryer move under on his receptions. It was minus 114.
02:55It's now under four and a half. It's now minus 130 or so. So
02:58the line is moving like in a good way. They have to get
03:01George Pickens going right. So at the end of the day, if
03:05George Pickens isn't getting going, the answer is probably a
03:08Steelers team total under because yes, we have seen Pat
03:11Fryer move put up seven and eight receptions over the past
03:14two games, but that's when George Pickens is doing
03:16absolutely nothing. So the way the Steelers stay in this game
03:19is having Najee Harris have a big ground game. If that is the
03:22case, that means Pat Fryer with probably everyone in the
03:25passing offense isn't having a massive game. So it has to be a
03:28run game from the Steelers or George Pickens like that is
03:31their path to victory. When you get a divisional tool, of
03:35course, there is familiarity, but it also gives you a sample
03:38size in direct head to head matchups. First game this year
03:41in Pittsburgh, the Steelers went outright as a home dog
03:44total 48 and a half. Well under that matchup in week number
03:491745 and a half was the total. It skies way over because
03:53Baltimore scored 34 points. This total now 43 in a hook the
03:58lowest for any of the three games between the Steelers and
04:01the flock this year. DRS quickly. What do you mean by
04:04bring your Advil for this game? Like it's hard nose AFC North
04:08Library. Come on. We're like we're not going to get kind of
04:10football just play out in California. Huh? What did you
04:13guys do? We got hot. We don't have that luxury over on the
04:16East Coast. Yeah, you would have loved it as a speedy wide
04:20receiver in the slot. You would have loved it. That's a nine
04:25and a half point spread between the Ravens and the Steelers.
04:28The other large spread we have this weekend eight and a half
04:31in favor of the bills and our first of three games on Sunday
04:35total stands at 47 and a half two part question. Do you think
04:40this game stays within the margin and is competitive
04:43second part? If so, who is the player? What is the prop that
04:47has that be the case? Probably not. I don't think it'll say I
04:51think the Broncos will win by two. Not the Broncos the bills
04:55the bills will win by the win by 10 points. They're going to
04:57cover this number. They're going to win. They just are the
04:59far superior team. I do expect the Broncos. That is of course
05:02to be playing from behind and a Bo Nicks interception late in
05:06the game may cause this to go over may cause the the bills to
05:10cover that number and as I spoke about on Monday, Bo Nicks
05:13over on passing attempts, right? That was sitting at 34
05:15and a half. A little bit of juice there. That number has
05:17moved to 35. So early in the week, we are on some good lines
05:21nice and early. Again, I expect the bills to cover and win.
05:24They're just the far superior team and unders when it comes
05:27to Javante Williams, rushing Aldrick Estime, rushing the
05:30Broncos are just not going to get it going on the ground.
05:33Maybe the most anticipated game of super wild card weekend as
05:36we'll keep the mojo going with that Packers and the Eagles
05:39four and a half point line 45 and a half total. We had a
05:42rematch from week one here in Brazil now in Philadelphia. Tom,
05:46what are you looking at here? I'm looking at some unders when
05:49it comes to AJ Brown receiving and I think he's one of the
05:52best receivers in the league. He's the cornerstone of my
05:54dynasty fantasy football team, but ultimately under 87 and a
05:58half is a spot to go as we were talking about just before he
06:00came on the air like Saquon rushing attempts is what I
06:02really expect to shine in this game. And even if AJ Brown ends
06:06with 60 or 70 some odd yards, it's going to be him. It's
06:08going to be a balanced offense. Obviously with Devonta Smith,
06:10Dallas got her back. Maybe in Grant Calcaterra getting
06:13involved. I just think there are too many options on the
06:15Eagles offense for one single player to have a game because
06:18if Brown is having to push over to 90 100 plus yards, we're
06:22probably going to be seeing the game fly over and I just don't
06:23expect that to happen with two offenses that like to run the
06:26ball. We're going to see the clock bleed out and it's going
06:28to lead to some unders despite being what could be a very good
06:30game like six catches for 70 some odd yards for Brown and a
06:33touchdown would be an awesome game. And of course, Eagles
06:35come away with the win.
06:3787 and a half a lofty number again. Look at Tom's top props.
06:42Let's put him up there before we get to Sunday night. His
06:44early leans for wild card weekend and an Eagles outright
06:49victory. Donnie is happy. Vecchio in the final 30 seconds
06:53Sunday night football in Tampa Bucks three point favorite
06:56against the commanders. What do you like most?
06:59It's going to be a Bucky Irving, a Russian plus receiving.
07:01It's going to be Mike Evans and then Terry McClure and of
07:04course running it back. I am expecting points lined open up
07:07at 49 or so. It's back up to 50. We're going to see some
07:09points in that game. Probably one of the best surprising
07:11games of the weekend.
07:13Highest total of the weekend as well. Vecchio a sincere thank
07:17you as always live right here on the early line and out our
07:21Thursday show. It's Ben Stevens. That's me and the
07:24mastermind of the pigskin. That is Joe Lisi. We just talked
07:28about the Orange Bowl between Notre Dame and Penn State,
07:31which kicks off tonight. 730 PM Eastern time. Our first of
07:35two college football playoff semifinals and wouldn't you
07:39know it? The college football today crew is together for one
07:43of our final two times this season in 2024 is college
07:46football campaign. Our CFP semifinal coverage begins
07:51tonight. 730 PM Eastern time right before we get to kick in
07:55Miami. Joe Lisi, Kevin Walsh and myself, Ben Stevens all
07:59together to take you through the entirety of tonight's Orange
08:04Bowl. Those live betting opportunities and how we break
08:07down the key matchups that will impact the outcome to decide a
08:10national champion. I'm looking forward to at least a guy that
08:14at much I can say.
08:15Oh yeah, I mean this is what it's all about Ben. Just
08:18spending time with your friends, watching some football
08:21and hopefully winning some money a little bit later tonight.
08:24So I couldn't think of anything I'd rather do for the next five
08:27hours and when the game kicks off. So looking forward to it.
08:32You sound very excited. We'll be together on football full
08:35circle on sports grid radio starting at noon. Eastern time
08:38as well when we blend college and the NFL, but at least you
08:42gotta end out the show. Let's go rapid fire through our five
08:45games in wildcard weekend, not including Monday night in LA
08:49between the Rams and the Vikings. The five games until
08:53everybody is back with us on Monday morning. Of course, a
08:55Friday on the early line is ahead as well. Let's start with
08:59our first game of two on Saturday in Houston. Chargers
09:02two and a half point favorite on the road against the Texans in
09:06H town. 42 and a half is that total Lisa guy. What's your
09:10favorite play for the first game of wildcard weekend?
09:13It's the over 42 and a half. I think you're going to get a
09:16dynamic performance or at least CJ Stroud's past. I think it's
09:20a big day for Nico Collins. I know LA is hot heading into this
09:24matchup. They're the more complete team won their ball
09:27game down the stretch against obviously New England and how
09:30they dominated in terms of week number 18. But for me, it's it's
09:34the over 42 and a half. I like Houston as a live dog plus the
09:38two and a half points, but I think we got points of plenty
09:41Stroud Herbert and both of those passing attacks. I think
09:44open up. So give me the over 42 and up the bolts under in seven
09:49of the first eight games this year, but to end out the
09:52regular season is Justin Herbert started to light it up over in
09:55seven of those final nine are nightcap on Saturday in the
09:59Charm City at AFC North rivalry between the Ravens and the
10:03Steelers nine and a half point spread Joe in favor of the
10:06flock. The largest number we are seeing throughout the entirety
10:10of wild card weekend. Is it too many points in favor of
10:13Baltimore? I think it is and I know they played earlier in
10:17terms of week 15 and it was a 3417 win for Baltimore. They
10:22won as a six and a half point favorite. The 45 and a half came
10:26in to the over, but I think this game resembles the first
10:29matchup in Pittsburgh, a lower scoring game. You want to give
10:33me nine and a half points. I'll take it. I don't love this game
10:36out of all the games this weekend. This is the one that
10:39I'm not going to dive deep into, but I like the Steelers
10:42plus the nine and a half. Just too many concerns though for me
10:45in terms of Russell Wilson last five games. He's only average
10:48about 73 through the air. They're going to need a better
10:51effort to knock off Baltimore, but I'll take the points with
10:54the Steelers on the road. Pittsburgh ends out the year on
10:58a four game losing skid scoring 17 points or fewer in all four
11:03of those losses. Let's get to Sunday first game of three in
11:06the triple header in Buffalo. The Bills also a hefty favorite
11:09north of a touchdown lay in eight and a half against the
11:12Broncos. Total 47 and a hook. Joe, what needs to happen in
11:16this game to keep it within that spread margin?
11:19Well, Bo Nicks needs to make some plays with his legs, not
11:23his arms so much. Again, I don't know if Marvin Mims and
11:26Courtland Sutton are going to expose that secondary over the
11:30top. Has to be the rushing attack, has to be the mobility
11:33of Bo Nicks. If they could do that, I think they're within
11:36the number of eight and a half, but I'm taking the other side.
11:39I think it's a smash job by Buffalo playing at home. Rookie
11:43quarterback. Now the training wheels are off. We'll see
11:46Buffalo pin their ears back and get after it. I think they
11:50start fast and dominate this ball game. I think they win by
11:52double digits, cover this line, and I think we go over the 47
11:56and a half bet.
11:58The Broncos have been an underdog five times since the
12:02end of week three. Oh, and five straight up, just one and four
12:06against the spread. These are two games on Sunday in the NFC
12:09Eagles, four and a half point favorite against the Packers.
12:12The Buccaneers, a three point home favorite against the
12:15Commanders on Sunday night. Quickly, what's your favorite
12:17bet? Yeah, I like the Commanders plus the three, and I like the
12:21Packers plus the four and a half. I think I'd go over in the
12:24Eagle Packer game under in terms of Tampa Bay, Washington,
12:28and we'll see how it plays out.