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00:00Yeah, we want to get your thoughts that being you, the
00:02people out there on this division around weekend in
00:06entering the division around with eight teams still standing
00:09in the chase for a Super Bowl and Lombardi trophy. What is the
00:14best bet? We all find out together in fade the public.
00:25At sports grid on Twitter to DRS even hit there is twizz on
00:29this. I did. I believe I did. Oh, he did. I did. Yeah, yeah,
00:34you did a lot of risk. I mean, you were promoting your own
00:37appearance here today for quite some time. But at sports grid
00:42on Twitter, entering the division around which team is
00:45the best bet to win Super Bowl 59. The Lions are the favorites
00:48the shortest, shortest price at plus 290. The Chiefs second best
00:53number to plus 350 trying to win that third consecutive Lombardi
00:57trophy, the Eagles at plus 420. Or if you selected other, we
01:01asked for a reply DRS a ton of replies to this fade the public
01:07poll will go through a few, but most of the public nearly 37%
01:13still saying it's the Lions to play in the franchise's first
01:17ever Super Bowl to win the Lions first ever Lombardi trophy.
01:22There's two ways to look at this poll, right? And if you're
01:24fading the public grade, if you're riding with the public,
01:26fantastic, but also there are price points involved here.
01:28We're not just asking you who's the best team to win the Super
01:31Bowl with no price points, where you just maybe would pick the
01:34lowest number here in the odds market. But for me, I didn't do
01:37that. Plus 290 on the Lions, they are going to have to go
01:39through a tight and we're just projecting this out. Let's just
01:42say favorites roll Eagles Lions, what an absolute titanic fight
01:46here for them to get to the Super Bowl. Understand that. But
01:49also before that, Washington commanders are going to be
01:51there, you take a look, you know, on the opposite side,
01:53Baltimore Ravens, maybe have a chance at it, the Buffalo
01:56Bills, but the Chiefs for me, a plus 350 was the point for me,
01:59because I think they have a great shot to get to the Super
02:02Bowl. Because if they get through this week, yeah, that
02:05should be a layup for them with a victor over the Texans, which
02:08then they are going to face either the Buffalo Bills or the
02:11Baltimore Ravens. But understand this, a lot of writings, which
02:13we'll get to, hey, I love the Bills to win it. Those are great
02:16football team. Hey, I love the Ravens to win it. Great
02:19football team as well. Those two got to play each other. Then
02:21they got to play Kansas City in Kansas City, and then they got
02:24to get to the Super Bowl and win it here. So for me, it's the
02:26Kansas City Chiefs, even though they are going to get an
02:29unbelievable punch the next week in the AFC championship, where I
02:33expect them to be there, which would be either the Buffalo
02:35Bills or the Baltimore Ravens. But for me, Chiefs at home win
02:39this week, play next week. I like the odds of plus 350. It's
02:42the Chiefs for me.
02:45And I think it's a great point, DRS. We asked best bet entering
02:48the division around weekend, right? And how you forecast the
02:52remainder of this playoff run and where those prices are at
02:56the moment. The Chiefs are the favorite to win the AFC
02:59championship. They're more than a touchdown favorite at home
03:02tomorrow against the Texans. They will be even a slight
03:05favorite against either the Ravens or the Bills. And some
03:10of those numbers, I think maybe a little bit too tight, given
03:12home field advantage, given the fact it is Arrowhead, given the
03:15fact if the Chiefs do win tomorrow, even outright, they'll
03:19play in their seventh consecutive AFC championship
03:22game, six of those seven years at home in Kansas City. So at
03:28that price point, it would make a ton of sense. Now, I have a
03:32Super Bowl ticket on the Lions, so I don't mind the value at
03:35plus 290, my number much earlier in the year, over two and a half
03:39months ago at a six to one price. But Donnie, we asked for
03:43a reply and you see the three best prices, the Lions, the
03:47Chiefs and the Eagles, the two teams excluded that many feel
03:51are the rightful AFC championship favorites, if you
03:54will, the Ravens and the Bills are maybe the best teams in the
03:58AFC and that the divisional round matchup on Sunday in
04:02Western New York could be a de facto AFC title game. We got
04:07about four replies for the Bills, three replies for the
04:11Ravens. Of those two numbers, Baltimore plus 470, Buffalo
04:15plus 550, what do you believe is the better bet at that price
04:19point? I would still say Ravens, and even as we're
04:22talking about this, the Ravens aren't home this weekend
04:24against the Buffalo Bills. Ravens are on the road, so
04:26that's going to be a tough one just to beat Buffalo, and then
04:28you're not going to be home because we're anticipating that
04:30if chalk holds, you're going to Kansas City at that point. But
04:33if there's one team that can be built for this, and if they
04:36just stick to the game plan by running the football and
04:40throwing less than 25 times, that team is how long wheels
04:43and could possibly wind up in the Super Bowl. For me, even
04:46though you're saying, Donnie, wait a second, higher seed
04:48here, Buffalo Bills at home, you're asking the Ravens to go
04:50on the road, on the road, and then get to the Super Bowl and
04:53win it here, I'm still going to go with the Ravens. I just
04:55think if they stick to the script, as I keep saying,
04:58they're going to be the best team in the AFC with the best
05:01chance to move on if you're looking for that underdog price
05:04to knock off the Kansas City Chiefs. And I do believe DRS,
05:08as we kind of discussed with Joe and Ari, as we looked at the
05:10hypothetical lines for what the AFC title game would be, the
05:14numbers currently in the AFC championship odds, and taking
05:17that a step further for Super Bowl 59. Regardless of who you
05:22think wins this weekend in Buffalo, if it's the
05:26Bills, and you feel pretty sound in that, or it's the Ravens as
05:30an ever so slight road favorite, if you feel convinced, or
05:35pretty close to convinced, or comfortable perhaps, confident
05:39that Baltimore wins, Buffalo wins outright, which is
05:42basically all you need to pick for the game itself. You should
05:46take it every step, right? You should take it to the AFC
05:48championship, the early lines, the title price against the
05:52Chiefs. You should take it to that Super Bowl number at plus
05:55470 for the Ravens, and plus 550 for Buffalo. The Chiefs have
06:00the postseason pedigree. There is no doubt about that. But if
06:03you think one of these two franchises, in the Ravens, in
06:06the Bills, and one of these two quarterbacks can change that
06:09narrative surrounding their team, their play in postseasons,
06:14you are getting a lot of value and plus money prices for the
06:18remainder of what would be a deep playoff run. Absolutely,
06:22and you're looking at teams where we don't have many
06:25arguments for right now. Understanding, I don't think the
06:27Texans can win because I think they put up a fight yet. Same
06:29thing with the Rams in Philadelphia. Absolutely. I'll
06:31explain it a little bit later, but if you are looking towards
06:34these teams that we're talking about, the Lions, the Chiefs,
06:36the Eagles, the Bills, and the Ravens, you can say either one
06:39of those teams can win it, and I can't fault you for saying
06:41that. There's no shot the Ravens can win it. What? There's
06:44no chance the Buffalo, what? Absolutely, they can win this.
06:47We're just trying to look at some of these optimistic
06:49numbers, and just from the poll itself, the Lions 290, the
06:52favorites to get from the NFC to the championship, and then
06:55the Chiefs at plus 350. I just like the price point, Ben, on
06:58the plus 350 better than the plus 290, even though both of
07:00those teams with great chances to go, I'll just take the
07:03better odds. I think it makes a ton of sense, DRS, from a
07:06handicapping in number perspective. We continue our
07:10deep dive around the division around next.
07:17Football available on the very fun sponsor of this show, the
07:22FanDuel Sportsbook, our favorite out there in a way
07:25that you can compare all four of our division around matchups.
07:29We've got some lofty spreads. We've got two totals north of
07:3250. There is a lot to break down for the division around
07:37highest scoring game of the weekend. Of course, you
07:39associate it with what the pregame over under is, and
07:43there is one at 55 and a half, a very lofty total for Saturday
07:47night in Detroit, and thus the shortest price to be the highest
07:51scoring game of this division around, plus 110. The other
07:54game north of 50 is the Bills and the Ravens on Sunday, plus
07:59210. Lowest scoring game, 41 in a hook is the total for the
08:04Chiefs and the Texans, the opening game of our four this
08:07week, and thus the shortest price at plus 130. Donnie, I'll
08:12ask the question like this. Is there any chance that you think
08:15these odds don't go chalk, that it doesn't just follow the
08:19totals that we will see entering the games? Now, I do
08:23think there will be some mismatches here, but the
08:25overall favorite here, if we're talking about, let's just say
08:27the highest scoring game, Washington and Detroit, I think
08:30it's pretty easy to line that up because we're not talking
08:32about September games, Ben, which we're going to get into,
08:35which means, hey, every game is 75 degrees and sunny and
08:38everybody's got great legs because they haven't been all
08:41the way through a 16, 17 game slate per se at this point. So
08:45for my money here, there are sort of advantages just taking
08:48saying, you know what, one game's played in perfect
08:50elements, the others are not, and we'll play off of that this
08:52weekend. Yeah, I think it's a really good point as well, DRS.
08:56It's difficult, I think, to bet these markets sometimes outside
09:00of a little pizza bet, a small sprinkle, because you're
09:02basically hoping for two things. If you wanted to take
09:05even the Bills and the Ravens, which also has a very lofty
09:08total for a division round playoff matchup at 51 and a
09:12hook, you really need the game at least handicapping thought
09:15to go over that number, and you would need the Lions and the
09:18Commanders to go well under its total of 55 and a half. That
09:22game could stay under with 54 points, and you might find
09:25yourself in a bizarre middle. Let's go to where we expect
09:28points to be at a premium. Donnie, here's where I actually
09:32think you might be able to find a little bit of a better bet,
09:36not with just that shortest number, the favorite to be the
09:39lowest scoring game. I actually think there's a good chance the
09:42Eagles and the Rams could be the lowest scoring game of the
09:45weekend, that the Chiefs and the Texans probably not going to
09:48hit the half century mark at 50, but could end up with like 45,
09:53barely over its total of 41 and a hook, where I do really
09:56believe we are going to see great defensive performances
09:59out of both the Eagles and the Rams once again. Yes, and
10:03you're right about this and also the elements creeping in
10:05yesterday. I mapped out my game plan exactly where I wanted to
10:08go games that I thought could be high scoring games where I
10:10thought the defenses would actually have impacts here.
10:12Well, the Philadelphia Eagles game did change this morning.
10:14They were talking about some weather conditions that could
10:16be in effect on Sunday. Wake up this morning. National
10:20Weather Service now says there's a chance and maybe a
10:2220% chance that we could be looking at as many as six
10:24inches of snow in Philadelphia. Now you might say to yourself
10:27and I do this as well. Who cares if it's overnight, Ben?
10:30Who cares if it's after the game? Who cares if it's 6
10:33hours before the game? That field will be tarped and it
10:35won't be a problem. The problem is, Ben, that tarp is
10:38going to be off the field. If we're looking at weather
10:40conditions in Philadelphia, which is supposed to hit around
10:422 o'clock, keep in mind, it's a 3 o'clock kickoff. That tarp is
10:45not going on the field until 259 for a 3 o'clock kickoff.
10:48It's already off and if it's supposed to snow throughout the
10:51game, it's very hard to keep up with accumulating snow in cold
10:54conditions. Even Ben, if it's 3 to 4 inches over those 4 to 5
10:59hours that you would have, you are going to have some issues
11:01there. That is going to play into it. So when I look at that
11:03game in Philadelphia, we talked about it all week. How good the
11:06Rams defense has been playing over the past month and a half.
11:09The number one defense in football in the Philadelphia
11:12Eagles. So if you're looking from a Rams perspective, sure
11:15they can run, but Matthew Stafford's the quarterback.
11:18He's not really a mobile guy that's going to say, you know,
11:19I'll run seven or eight times because the pass rush slows
11:22down and I can just make some yards out here. At the same
11:24time, Pukunuku is a fantastic wideout and got over 100 yards
11:27last time against the Philadelphia Eagles, but that
11:29was also in blowout fashion. Maybe a little bit more tight to
11:32the vest in that Philadelphia Eagles-Rams game where they're
11:34both going to try to establish the run and Philadelphia would
11:37have the edge. That's the low key one because the high
11:39scoring game of the week, as you see, at a 6 to 1 price, it
11:43could get there, but I think we're both leaning towards now
11:45that 44 and a half that were there yesterday at 43 and a
11:48half and I agree with that move lower. In DRS, it really does
11:52make a ton of sense as well when you look at that total and
11:55what an expected game flow would be, especially in wintry
11:59conditions. Snow is often weird because snow can also make
12:03things incredibly difficult for the defense. They are trying to
12:06chase offensive players. The offense knows exactly where
12:10it's going to go. The defense has to be reactionary. So if
12:13there is bad footing, that actually plagues the defense
12:16more than it does the offense. They're trying to keep up with
12:19where guys are moving past them, trying to make a tackle.
12:22It hurts a little bit more when it's cold and it's snowy.
12:26Could that lead to big chunk plays? Could it lead to
12:29explosive plays even on the ground, which actually might
12:32help scoring even if it's not 50-yard touchdown passes time
12:36and again? Potentially, but Donnie, I think even when you
12:41look at the props for the Eagles and the Rams, you get a
12:44sense of how these two teams are going to be constructed
12:47come Sunday. Kyron Williams, 74 and a half is rushing yards
12:50prop. 19 and a half is the attempts number. Saquon Barkley,
12:54his attempts prop is 21 and a half. The over has the hefty
12:58juice. 1-11 and a hook is his rushing yards prop. Even in the
13:03snow, even if they run the football, even if there are some
13:07big plays that will be had. What happens when you run the
13:10clock? You don't have incompletions. You don't have
13:13stoppages. You see that time dwindle, which if there's not
13:17as many moments in the game to score a touchdown could keep
13:21you under 43 and a hook. Yes, and also understand this when
13:25you're looking at the game itself, like when you add
13:27elements in, it adds to a chance in an increase typically
13:30in an upset, but also we have to be realist about what we've
13:33seen over the past 50 years in the NFL. Dome teams going
13:36outdoors in the playoffs on short rest, having to play in
13:40elements. It usually doesn't work out in their favor unless
13:42you can say I have a Jalen Hurts have a Lamar Jackson. I
13:45have a Josh Allen. This fits perfectly into the style. If
13:48we're coming into this and being realistic fandom aside,
13:51snowy conditions in Philadelphia absolutely favors
13:53the Philadelphia Eagles. But as Ben you pointed out, we don't
13:57know what type of snow and environment are we going to
13:59get because you're right. If it's so slippery, it's
14:02negligible out here. It's like a heavy rainstorm in a football
14:04game where team that loves the past. Of course, you're going
14:06to give it to the team that likes to run the football more.
14:09That's what you're trying to thread the needle with. But if
14:11I'm looking optimistically about this game and saying it
14:14leads to the under with an advantage towards the
14:16Philadelphia Eagles. But again, we don't know exactly. We might
14:18get no snow on Sunday. We might get an unbelievable. You can't
14:21see the field. It's snowing so bad at times. We just don't
14:24know. And which games will be the most competitive? That's
14:28what we discuss up next on the early. Live right here on this
14:32football Friday, getting you set for the divisional round.
14:36Now, it is really interesting to see three of our four
14:39matchups in a weekend. We have tried to build as the best of
14:42the best have spreads of six and a half, eight and a half,
14:46eight and a half with only one number that is even fewer than
14:50a field goal. And it's very close. Of course, we'll talk
14:53Buffalo and Baltimore in just a moment. But Donnie, to start
14:56off the postseason last weekend, five of our six games
15:01decided by at least twelve points. Only one game was
15:05decided by a single score. It was the commanders winning
15:08outright on the road against the Buccaneers. Are we going to
15:12see closer football games? We would hope, we would expect the
15:16NFL's best eight teams still playing at this time of the
15:19season. Now, with the one seeds in action and a couple of great
15:24games on the slate. But again, the spreads are pretty large in
15:28a lot of our spots. So, the closest game that we anticipate
15:32on the FanDuel Sportsbook is Buffalo and Baltimore. It is
15:37basically a pick'em. There are eight cents of difference right
15:40now for our final game of four this weekend, Sunday night in
15:44Western New York. But Donnie, we kind of talked about it with
15:47the highest scoring games and the lowest scoring games that
15:50it made some sense based on the pregame numbers for the total
15:54that we would expect it to go chalk. Again, there's only one
15:57game that features a spread, less than a field goal, less
16:00than six and a half. It's Buffalo and Baltimore and yet
16:04for that game to be the closest game is only plus 220, just 80
16:07cents shy of what that three to one ticket would be for the
16:10Rams and the Eagles. That to me is almost a slight misprice. It
16:15seems like it. When you think about it, it's like it's
16:17supposed to be the closest game but at the same time you go,
16:20boy, if we're getting colder conditions, you know, two
16:22electric quarterbacks, two running games that could get
16:25fired up, quarterbacks making plays off schedules, this game
16:28could be the closest game but also maybe find itself as the
16:31blow out of the weekend. He said that doesn't make any
16:33sense. It's just the way the game script for me would be. So
16:36if you took a flyer closest game and biggest blowout like
16:40sort of for that middle as one to happen there, I think you
16:42have a pretty good chance at that and as you start to move
16:45down the list and like the closest game listed with the
16:47Rams and the Philadelphia Eagles at three to one, if the
16:49elements come into it, that game just might play itself into
16:52being the closest game even if coming into the week on a clean
16:54slate and a nice day in Philadelphia, you wouldn't
16:56think the same way. The one I do think that really could get
17:00away quickly and you see the biggest blowout numbers which
17:03is Washington and Detroit. Washington hasn't shown the
17:05propensity to say, well, we're just going to get hammered in
17:07these games. The quarterback's young. He's electric. I like
17:10their offensive game plan. They'll be ultra aggressive but
17:12sometimes you can't just stop that freight train running down
17:15the tracks as I like to say for Detroit where that game could
17:18get away. So I do think these games are appropriately priced.
17:21I just think the anomaly of closest game plus 220 Buffalo
17:25and Baltimore and then biggest blowout plus 470 Buffalo
17:28Baltimore. I think there's a chance that that game could be
17:30the closest or could be the blowout more than any other
17:33game. Fifty-one and a half is the number for the game. So if
17:38there is a lot of scoring, it could skew one way come Sunday
17:42evening but the game is expected to be decided by a
17:46point. So the fact it's only plus 220 in the Rams and the
17:49Eagles with a six and a half point spread in favor of the
17:52home team in Philadelphia. It's only 80 cents behind that for
17:56our most competitive and closest game is a little bit
18:00intriguing. You can understand why the birds and the Rams
18:04could be very tight because if the game does stay under if it
18:09is a couple of brilliant defenses on display points hard
18:13to come by that margin not nearly as wide biggest blowout
18:17DRS. If you had to bet one of those four prices, which one
18:21would it be? Actually, it would be Houston and Kansas City. I
18:24would bet that one at the plus 230 price because I know a lot
18:27of people and sometimes a little bit contrarian Andy
18:30Reed coming off a bye where that team is 100% healthy and
18:33you're not getting 100% healthy Houston Texans team, which
18:36includes Joe mix and this in practice this week when you
18:38know, you're probably going to have to lean on him. Let's just
18:40say he's not 100% take away Nico Collins, which you know
18:43Spagnola will do. I don't know where the points come from and
18:45when we say blowout, maybe it just means been 24 to 10 of 14
18:49point margin because when we read blow, it's like oh 35
18:52points. They're like no, you're just asking for the team to win
18:55by the most points of the weekend, which quite frankly
18:57could be 14 points. Yeah, absolutely right. It doesn't
19:01have to be 35 to three. It doesn't have to be 3824 and a
19:05high scoring game. It could be 24 7, which is what the odds are
19:09kind of expecting when you look at those pregame numbers for
19:13the matchup inside Arrowhead again. I kind of agree with DRS.
19:18I think it would be worth a wager on the plus 230 for KC
19:22and Houston guys. Have you watched the Chiefs play this
19:25year? An average margin in their first 16 games when all
19:28the starters were out there 6.1. They're oh and five
19:31against the spread as a touchdown favorite. They
19:33haven't been blowing anybody out. That's regular season
19:36Chiefs football brother. We're talking about playoff football
19:39now in Kansas City and something I have dreamed of now
19:44becomes a reality a football Friday pick six for Johnny
19:49right side. This is how you know a football Friday is
19:54special. This is how you know a football Friday is different
19:58not just on the right side, but DRS is divisional round pick
20:03six. The inventor of the pick six is here with us for the
20:08NFL's final eight. I believe you were the inventor right or
20:12was it Brian Rutkowski or was it Kevin Walsh? No, neither one
20:17of those get credit for that. Come on. I carried that show.
20:19It was my invention. It was about by the way truth be told
20:21if we're going back in the history of the sports network,
20:24it was named something ridiculous. So I had to step
20:26in and save it and say no, no, it's football. Let's keep with
20:29a football moniker here boys. Let's do it. So there that's a
20:32little history of the sports grid network. Sometimes when I
20:36think of what it was originally supposed to be two young kids
20:39acronym for all of them, two young kids not ready for the
20:43air had the school and the craft of here's what's supposed
20:46to go down on the air gentlemen. Let's be professionals
20:48here. That's why I was brought here.
20:52Bring those guys along. Never forget Donny right side. The
20:55most professional of everybody. So just in case this is your
20:59first football Friday tuning in or you need a refresher. We
21:04welcome you. It's the division around. Let's give you some
21:07picks. It's our favorite touchdown scorer of the
21:09weekend. A Moneyline underdog to keep a game close and
21:13potentially pull off the outright upset. Our favorite
21:16under of the weekend in all line with a sprinkle of plus
21:20money favorite yardage profit and DRS and myself. We combine
21:24forces for a two leg six point teaser originator. The floor is
21:29yours. What is your favorite anytime touchdown prop of
21:32divisional weekend? We're going to go to Detroit and we're
21:35going to keep it simple. That line's listed at 55 and a half.
21:37I'm not worried Ben whether the wind is blowing a certain
21:39direction rain or snow is coming down. We are in a dome
21:42with a rested and ready football team against a defense
21:46that can be had throughout the air. Now also keep in mind if
21:48you were betting quarterback props, we'll get to that later
21:50and you're looking at Jared Goff, you might go to the
21:52famous Sportsbook and say, hey Donnie, what's this over under
21:55for touchdown passes? Well, typically it's one and a half.
21:58No, it's listed at two and a half. So we're expected to have
22:01multiple touchdown passes from the arm of Jared Goff. Why not
22:04the best wide receiver there who's caught multiple touchdown
22:08passes this year, particularly as of late as well. I'm in
22:12Ross St. Brown anytime touchdown score at a minus 140 price in a
22:1655 and a half game in a dome with an unbelievable offense.
22:21Yeah, give me I'm in Ross St. Brown. He's scoring a touchdown
22:23this weekend for me. Donnie. There's a reason that number is
22:27minus 140 on Amon Ross St. Brown. The total is 55 and a
22:31half and you're correlated to everything correctly. I'm in
22:34rod and not scoring the first two games of this year for
22:37Detroit. Then he scored in eight consecutive games and even did
22:41a headstand and he did not find Peter in three consecutive
22:45scored in three straight did not score in the regular season
22:48finale against the Vikings. I like you expect him to score for
22:52Detroit tomorrow night. My favorite touchdown score is in
22:55our final game of four in this division around Sunday in
22:58Buffalo James Cook at plus 105. I can understand kind of why
23:05this number is plus 105. The Ravens are the best rushing
23:08defense and it's not particularly close throughout
23:10the entirety of the year in the National Football League, but
23:14then I start to think about James Cook and this total also
23:17being at 51 and a half James Cook scored 16 rushing
23:23touchdowns in the regular season tied for the most around
23:26the National Football League scored last week against Denver
23:30make that 17. He has two receiving touchdowns this year
23:34make that 19 in total and his number is plus 105. Derek
23:41Henry is minus 210. Alright, Josh Allen is even money plus
23:45100. Alright, but plus 105 for Buffalo's lead back that is
23:51tied to top the NFL for the most rushing touchdowns this
23:54year in a game that features a total north of 50. Give me James
23:59Cook at plus 105 to hit Peter DRS on Sunday in Orchard Park.
24:04Oh, it absolutely makes sense. I love them last week. The
24:06punching a touchdown gets out on the first drive. They're
24:08going up against the Denver Broncos. So I was feeling good
24:10with that. He's also one of those guys now Ben. It's the
24:12playoffs. You want to hold him on the raft 1314 15 carries
24:16maybe in the regular season. Now you're seeing the guy get
24:1820 plus carries and he's going to need to do it again. We
24:21understand how tough it is to score right against the
24:23Baltimore Ravens defense and a great day on the ground, but
24:25trust me on this when you're in the red zone, he is a
24:27legitimate threat and also some injuries to some backup
24:31running backs, which include concussions might help him get
24:33even more carries on the goal line this week. So how about
24:36that and it is everything in there. Of course to earn a spot
24:40in the AFC championship game. Three of our four matchups this
24:44weekend feature a spread of six and a half points or greater
24:47two of them at eight and a half right now in favor of the one
24:50seeds on Saturday. So it's a little bit difficult to pick
24:53that money line underdog to pull off the outright upset.
24:57Who did you go with? Yeah, I'm not diving into those
25:00Saturday games because when we're talking about efforts and
25:02I already said, which I'll get to my pick here in a second.
25:04Well, the Rams do have a little bit tougher from going east
25:06coast to west coast a little bit short of work. We get that,
25:08but nobody's has a tougher than the Houston Texans and the
25:11Washington Commanders. The number one seeds in the
25:14conference waiting on short rest weeks already for the two
25:17football teams. They're playing rested healthy. I don't think
25:20we're getting an upset. You might get a close game, but I
25:22don't think we're getting an upset, which immediately puts
25:24us then onto the Sunday football forecast where the
25:27Philadelphia Eagles are favored by let's call it roughly a
25:29touchdown. Then you take a look at the Buffalo Bills and the
25:31Baltimore Ravens more of a coin flip here. I went to
25:34Philadelphia and I like to say the most unbiased man here at
25:36the Sports Grid Network. Look at my upset special here. It's
25:40the Rams and it's plus 225. Now ask me who I think wins this
25:44game. It's the Philadelphia Eagles. Well, Donnie, why are
25:46you picking the Rams? Because I'm playing percentages here.
25:48If I know on Saturday, I'm not getting an upset winner and I
25:51look at Sunday and say, you know what I think at this price
25:54point with weather conditions that might come in and mess
25:57with the advantage of the Philadelphia Eagles, even
25:59though I told you weather favors the Eagles. We don't
26:01know how that weather actually will affect both of these
26:04football teams. So from looking at price points here
26:06and making sense of things, I do think this game was already
26:10going to be lower scoring. But now when I look at this game
26:12and say, you know what? There is a chance that the Rams could
26:14steal this, Ben, as you put McVeigh's won a Super Bowl.
26:16Stafford's won a Super Bowl here. You do have a good
26:18running back. You have Puka Nakula can go up and get any
26:21football against anybody in any weather conditions and a
26:23defense that is certainly surging late in the season. So
26:26for upset capabilities with price point, it's the Rams for
26:29me. It is Donnie. I don't have a great read on this spread. I
26:33think it is fair to have the birds as nearly a touchdown
26:36favorite at home and they have been at home for nearly a month
26:40with all the travel logistics the Rams have had to deal with
26:43in the last week and a half is also very favorable for the
26:47Eagles. But just because I don't have a great read on the
26:50spread, I still think this game stays within a single score for
26:54a good majority of it. And if that is going to be the case in
26:57a low scoring affair, then the Rams are going to have an
27:00opportunity. It would seem to be in striking distance to win
27:04that football game outright. I'll go with the easiest
27:07Moneyline underdog at least based on how competitive we
27:10expect the game to be and that's in Western New York. The
27:13bills outright plus 100 last night. Even money now minus
27:18104 which would still be considered a Moneyline
27:21underdog. I do think Buffalo wins this game. I do think
27:25Buffalo has some edges against Baltimore. So I'll back the
27:28bills as a slight Moneyline underdog, but it really is a
27:32toss up. I would not be shocked if Baltimore won that game in
27:36Orchard Park by any means favorite under of the weekend
27:39DRS. I assume it is in a potential snowy city of
27:44brotherly love on Sunday. Exactly and we're going to get
27:47some games. I'm actually out of the four games here. I do think
27:49it's three and one to the under so it's pretty easy. Oh man. I
27:52really got to stress myself out Ben to think who that under is
27:54going to be. I really like the Eagles Rams game under 44 and a
27:57half at the FanDuel Sportsbook yesterday. Now weather
28:00concerns 43 and a half drops it down more than likely to play
28:03some sort of, you know, I don't want to say slowing the
28:06offensive down, but just make it a little bit harder to be a
28:08complete offense as you can be. It's easy for me under 43 and
28:11this game can still have an Eagles win and a cover and stay
28:14well below that two good defenses playing at the right
28:16time at the end of the year and with weather elements. It's a
28:19no-brainer for me. Give me the Philadelphia Eagles and the Rams
28:21under 43 and a half. I think it's hard to argue for every
28:25reason that you just alluded to game flow defenses on display
28:30and maybe some weather on a Sunday afternoon in
28:34Philadelphia. I think the only over you have of our four games
28:38this weekend is my under 55 and a hook. Yes indoors. Yes,
28:43perfect conditions tomorrow night inside Ford Field and
28:47Donnie. I don't think this is 40 total points between Detroit
28:51and Washington, but I do believe we stay under 55 and a
28:55half. I'll highlight even more why and why it's important to
28:58me and also I think Donnie in terms of his NFC championship
29:02tickets on the other side of the break as we continue our
29:06divisional pick six live right here on TV. We welcome you back
29:10to a division around football Friday in a division around
29:14pick six our favorite bets of the entire weekend right before
29:18the break DRS gave you his favorite under Philly and LA
29:22under 43 and a half. I'm going with an under of the highest
29:26total of the weekend at 55 and a hook. I'm not expecting a
29:30defensive struggle. I'm not expecting a low scoring game.
29:34This game could even approach 50, but just still stay under
29:38for me. It is playoff football, but it's almost a little bit
29:41selfish DRS. Why I bet this under I have a Super Bowl ticket
29:45on the Detroit Lions with all the significant injuries that
29:48started to pile up for the Lions in the home stretch of this
29:52season. I started to get a little bit worried not because
29:54of what the offense would be capable of doing, but could the
29:57defense in these spots in playoff atmospheres make stops
30:02when necessary and those fears were kind of quelled a little
30:07bit by the regular season finale. A Detroit defensive
30:10performance holding Minnesota to only nine points that
30:14reinstilled in me at least hey that Lions Super Bowl ticket has
30:17a great opportunity of at least getting to New Orleans and
30:21maybe even being cashed with a Lombardi trophy. I think one of
30:25the most important performances of division around weekend and
30:28what it could mean moving forward is Detroit's defense
30:32against Jaden Daniels and the commanders if they give up 2428
30:3731. I'll be nervous again still expecting the Lions offense to
30:41outpace that on the other side, but if the Lions defense stands
30:46tall in this division around matchup, I will truly believe
30:50that Detroit will go somewhere. No other Detroit Lions team has
30:54and that's to a Super Bowl and you have to understand this too.
30:58This is a rookie quarterback and so without he won last week
31:00in Tampa on the road. I get that you're now going into a
31:03place in Detroit where this crowd is not used to these type
31:06of situations. You say well, what do you mean by that
31:08understand this when a town that has suffered for so long
31:12finally starts to get close to that mountain top and we'll have
31:15their first playoff game at home in eons that place you won't be
31:20able to hear the snap count for all 60 minutes of that game for
31:24a rookie quarterback in a dome environment when you know Aaron
31:27Glenn is going to be blitzing the heck out of him. That is a
31:29major advantage and also as we pointed out Ben, nobody's
31:32kicking field goals in this game, which could be detrimental
31:34and could be a rocket ship into the 60s. No question, but all
31:37you need is a fourth and three on a six-minute drive inside the
31:42five-yard line not go your way and they actually knock the
31:45play down or stop it here and then 97 yards the opposite
31:48direction where maybe they score a touchdown but take six
31:50minutes. That's 12 minutes of gameplay with seven points on
31:53the board with a fifty-five and a half as we say in the
31:56business, you need a clean ride to get to fifty-five and a half
31:59so I can see why people are just looking and saying you
32:01know what I'll roll the dice and just take the under based
32:04on that. Zero speed bumps fourth down conversions going
32:08to be key to get you over fifty-five and a hook if they
32:11convert if they are successful and a fourth and two from your
32:15opponent's twenty becomes a first and ten from the fifteen
32:19a touchdown likely follows. That's how this game pushes to
32:23the over all line favorite alternate number of the weekend
32:27with a sprinkle of plus money. Where do you look DRS sprinkle
32:31that plus money in there? Give me Lamar Jackson. It's gotta be
32:34Lamar Jackson because I understand this in simple of
32:37facts when you're in the regular season in the NFL, your
32:40quarterback is going to be electric. They do it Lamar has
32:42been fantastic. The running quarterbacks as long as they
32:44healthy fantastic, but once you get into the playoffs, you
32:47no longer are worried about next week because the only
32:50thing that matters is this week and I always just keep it
32:53simple on third and seven in the regular season. You're
32:56running up the middle and that safety is bearing down on you
32:58and going to stop it. You might slide in week twelve week
33:01thirteen week fourteen. You're not in the playoffs here. So for
33:04me, Lamar Jackson going over seventy and a half rushing
33:08yards at close to a two to one price makes way too much sense
33:11because I look at this game with another prophet. I love
33:13him to rush at least nine and a half times, which means ten
33:16carries. You tell me if Lamar Jackson is getting ten carries
33:20in this game against the Buffalo Bills. He's not getting
33:22seventy yards. I love Lamar Jackson when the playoff stakes
33:26rise, you have Josh out on one side Lamar Jackson on the other
33:30come on. They're going to try to outdo each other. Lamar is
33:32going over that seventy marker here. I'll take that close to
33:34two to one price. I love it. A great sprinkle of plus money
33:38fifteen carries eighty-one yards for Lamar last week
33:42through the century mark in last year's divisional round
33:45win at home against the Texans. I'm going Jameer Gibbs 125
33:50plus rush plus receiving yards at plus 160 line actually
33:56working down ever so slightly today at plus 145 as the
34:00rushing yards number four Gibbs goes up just a little bit
34:03David Montgomery expected to be back, but there is more than a
34:07thirty-five yard gap between Gibbs's rushing yards prop
34:10eighty-one and a half and that of Monty at 45 and a hook. I'm
34:14not sure David Montgomery is fully 100%. I do expect him to
34:18play. I do expect him to be out there, but Donnie in his three
34:22game absence to end out the regular season Jameer Gibbs at
34:25least 154 scrimmage yards. He scored in every game. He had a
34:29four total touchdown game in that huge game 272 to end out
34:33the regular season against the Vikings. I still expect a very
34:37big Jameer Gibbs game tomorrow night, especially in a high
34:41scoring affair with 55 and a half and I believe he will do
34:45the lion's share of the work offensively for those lions.
34:48I'll take 125 plus rushing plus receiving at plus 160. It makes
34:54a lot of sense too because you're also looking at the guy
34:55that can hit the home run. You don't even look at that and say
34:58hey man. He needs 25 touches to get this done. That might be 10
35:01touches and down the barrel you go with the W there so we can
35:04see it. I like the receiving yards in the fold as well.
35:08Alright, your favorite yardage prop of the weekend is what
35:12Austin Eckler over 23 and a half receiving yards at the
35:14FanDuel Sportsbook. He said why would you pick that one in a
35:16game with 55 points and other guys going to be involved? Hear
35:18me out all four quarters. I expect this to be in play,
35:21which means I expect Washington to lose possibly down double
35:24digits. That means more time on the field for Eckler and some
35:28cheap yards you can pick up. I expect this one to be a good
35:32run in this one and also as I said, whether they're up first
35:34quarter, second quarter, third quarter, fourth, he's going to
35:36be catching passes. If they're down like the game script looks
35:38like it's going to be, this goes way over. Austin Eckler,
35:41he's going to be into at least the 30s with receiving yards.
35:44The Commanders need something out of the running backs
35:47tomorrow night to keep the game close against Detroit, but
35:50Donnie, you don't think it's all that close as we'll go to
35:53your teaser as we send you into the Moneyline right before the
35:57break. Your teaser is what for this weekend? The Detroit Lions.
36:01I just don't see either one of those teams on Saturday losing
36:04that football game, so I think they win it by a field goal,
36:07which might play right into Ben's action as well.
36:10It certainly does. I take the Chiefs through two key numbers.
36:14KC minus two and a half. There are the pick sixes for a
36:19division around a football Friday treat. Indeed. I'll talk
36:23my yardage prop up next. The RS have a glorious weekend, my
36:27friend. More on the early line next. Live right here on the
36:30early line to end out a football Friday. What a football
36:34Friday it has been to set the stage for one of the best
36:37weekends of each and every NFL season. The division around
36:41four incredible matchups, eight great teams trying to earn
36:44spots in our two conference championship games in the AFC
36:48and the NFC exactly a weekend from now. Shout out to
36:51Ranieri. We appreciate him being here for the first two
36:54hours. Donnie right side filling in on a football Friday
36:58and making sure you had that pick six ready for this
37:01divisional weekend as we shared our two leg six point teaser
37:05taking the two eight and a half point favorites in our double
37:08header on Saturday down through two key numbers through a
37:11touchdown through a field goal two and a half point spread. I
37:15agree with Donnie's thought. I think both of the teams that
37:18won in wild card weekends, both as underdogs, the Texans and
37:22the commanders on Saturday against both of our one seeds
37:26come up just a little bit short. Not that each game is
37:29going to be a route or a snoozer, but just maybe not
37:32able to keep the game to within a single score or perhaps even
37:36a field goal. I'll end out the pick six talking a little bit
37:41of history. We got eleven of the twelve potential categories
37:45while Donnie was here. We didn't get my favorite yardage
37:48prop for me. It's Travis Kelsey over 51 and a half because when
37:54you look at what Travis Kelsey has done in the postseason, it
37:58is remarkable. It is historic and that number of 51 and a
38:02half is just a little bit too short a number by the way that
38:08even in a disappointing start to this season for Travis
38:10Kelsey, he still went over in eight of the final 13 regular
38:14season games that he played. Travis Kelsey has 1903
38:20receiving yards in his playoff career. He has 19 receiving
38:24touchdowns. Both of those numbers second most in NFL
38:27postseason history only behind the great Jerry Rice. Travis
38:31Kelsey needs 342 yards to catch that receiving yards playoff
38:36record that Rice holds at 2245. Would he get it this year and at
38:42most three games more than likely not and we'll see about
38:45his football future beyond 2024, but as we focus on the
38:50playoff production of the homes in Kelsey, it is historic
38:55last year in the postseason despite a dismal and
38:58disappointing year or maybe many questioned Travis Kelsey.
39:01Did he still have it? Was he still one of the best tight
39:04ends in the National Football League? He had at least 71
39:06receiving yards in all four playoff games for the Chiefs. He
39:10had seven receptions at least in three of the four and still
39:13scored three touchdowns. How about the year prior in 2022
39:18another Super Bowl winning year for Kansas City at least 81
39:22receiving yards in all three games a touchdown in all three
39:26even 2021 when Casey came up short in the AFC Championship
39:30game against the Bengals all three games for Kansas City at
39:34least 95 receiving yards for Travis Kelsey a touchdown in
39:40all three. I think the Chiefs win comfortably tomorrow at
39:44home in Arrowhead and I think we are reminded despite
39:48a disappointing season. It's funny to call a fifteen and two
39:51season disappointing where one of those two losses came with
39:54all the backups in the regular season finale, but at least in
39:58terms of crushing teams of blowing out teams of decisively
40:02dominating teams, the Chiefs really didn't have it this
40:05year, which for a second consecutive season has allowed
40:09at least a little bit of doubt to build up for this dynastic
40:12run for Kansas City. I think tomorrow the Chiefs remind why
40:16they will play in seven consecutive AFC Championship
40:20games. Why they have won two straight Super Bowls why they
40:24have played in four of the previous six Super Bowl match
40:28ups as well. I think Kansas City makes a statement at home
40:32fresh off a bye with Andy Reed thirty and three straight up in
40:37his career when his team is fresh off a bye and the other
40:40has not had the idle weekend and the Chiefs despite not
40:45covering a ton, especially in games, they were expected to
40:48win comfortably. Oh and five against the spread this year as
40:52a touchdown favorite or greater will show you why their
40:55postseason numbers are so drastically different than even
40:58the best regular seasons, even a regular season that can result
41:02in fifteen victories. The Chiefs are thirteen and five against
41:07the spread in their playoff career since 2018, which of
41:11course coincides with the season that Patrick Mahomes
41:15became the starting quarterback in Kansas City. So Travis
41:18Kelsey over fifty-one and a half receiving yards for many
41:22reasons. It's my favorite bet from a yardage perspective for
41:26divisional round weekend again. What a football Friday it was
41:30what a football weekend it is going to be pro football today
41:34featuring Donny right side Kevin Walsh and Joe Lisi live
41:38on both Saturday and Sunday for all of your NFL playoff
41:42action needs. We'll see you Monday with a college football
41:45playoff national champion with the preview as well. Have a
41:48great week.