Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan atau IHSG konsisten melemah hingga penutupan Senin -1,02% ke level 7.016. Pelemahan dikontribusi saham perbankan besar yang melemah hingga jampir capai 4%.
Namun tak hanya IHSG, pasar saham Asia juga jatuh mengekor pelemahan global secara luas pada perdagangan hari Senin. Sejumlah sentimen penekan juga memaksa rupiah terperosok ke kisaran Rp16.283 per dolar AS.
Namun tak hanya IHSG, pasar saham Asia juga jatuh mengekor pelemahan global secara luas pada perdagangan hari Senin. Sejumlah sentimen penekan juga memaksa rupiah terperosok ke kisaran Rp16.283 per dolar AS.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us on this episode of Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan, or IHSG,
00:09which was closed until 1% at the end of the trading on Monday.
00:12The decline in the optimism of the Bunga The Fed branch in a short period of time
00:16has burdened IHSG, and IHSG's burden comes from the BKEPS share,
00:22with the BBRI share being the biggest burden.
00:31Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan, or IHSG, fell at the beginning of Monday, January 13, 2025.
00:37IHSG rose 1.02% to level 7,016.88.
00:44In terms of intraday, IHSG was opened flat on Monday morning at level 7,088.
00:50It moved to the green zone for a while with the highest intraday call at level 7,094.
00:56IHSG once fell below 7,000 at level 6,986, which is the lowest intraday level.
01:03In terms of year-to-date, IHSG fell 0.89%.
01:078 out of 11 sectors dragged IHSG to the red zone.
01:10The industry sector fell 1.30%.
01:14The financial sector fell 1.21%.
01:17The technology sector fell 1.09%.
01:21The transportation and logistics sector fell 0.88%.
01:25The infrastructure sector fell 0.74%.
01:28The property and real estate sector fell 0.70%.
01:33The non-premier consumer goods sector fell 0.58%.
01:36And the primary consumer goods sector fell 0.47%.
01:41While the steel goods sector rose 0.58%.
01:45The health sector rose 0.21%.
01:48And the energy sector rose 0.10%.
01:52Meanwhile, on the side of the emitters, the banks dominated the pressure of IHSG.
01:57With the Indonesian People's Bank's PT Bank called TBK or BBRI,
02:00became the largest to reach 20.2 index points.
02:04The BBRI shares were closed at 3.99%, at a level of 3,850 rupiah per share.
02:11PT Barito Renewable Energy TPK or BREN,
02:14and PT Astra International TBK or ASE,
02:18weighing each ISG 14.2 and 7.9 index points.
02:23BREN was closed at 4.07%, at a level of 10,025 rupiah per share.
02:28While ASE was closed at a level of 3.06%, at a level of 4,750 rupiah per share.
02:36IHSG fell under the influence of global sentiment,
02:38especially as a result of the sharp rise in US dollars last week.
02:43With the US dollar index reached a level of 109.
02:47On the other hand, the latest US employment report in December is disappointing.
02:52This data can divert investors' hopes for the closure of the Dovet branch in the near future.
02:58On the other hand, the market is also waiting for the release of US investment data in December 2025.
03:03Based on the US BPI Economic Trading Consensus in December 2024,
03:08will reach 3.2% year-on-year,
03:11higher than the previous month at a level of 3.4%,
03:14as a source of extreme IT.
03:23Next, let's take a look at the Spotlight market.
03:25The ISG Angelo index fell to level 7,016.
03:27Era and Pani shares became the main market,
03:30fell by 7.5% and 6.99%.
03:33Bangun Kosambia shares or CBDK flew, touched the top auto-reject,
03:37rose by 25% after the official IPO,
03:40and most of the big caps.
03:41Melesu BBRI fell by 3.99%.
03:46And we will take a look at the interesting economic agenda in Germany.
03:49For example, from Asia, car and motorcycle sales in Indonesia in year-on-year in December.
03:53And there is also data about the credit bank in Indonesia in year-on-year in December.
03:57And there is also data about...
04:00Okay, the data related to the credit bank is from Japan.
04:05Then from Thailand, there is the trust of Thai consumers in December.
04:09Moving to the United States, there is also data about the Federal Reserve.
04:15Federal, I mean, in December.
04:17Then there is the index of the price of the main producer, Sherman Norman, in December.
04:22And the MB10 agenda that we can respect,
04:25there is Unilever, Inco, Peve, and Jaya, which held the RUPS.
04:30Next is about the opening of the main Asian exchanges this morning,
04:35as you can see on the television screen.
04:40For the main Asian exchanges, the mix was opened this morning,
04:43with Nikkei weakening by 1.27% at level 38,691.
04:47SDI Singapore opened weakening by 0.16% at level 3,785.
04:52KOSPI Korea strengthened by 0.16% at level 2,493.
04:57And Hang Seng Hong Kong opened strengthening by 0.15%.
05:11Right now, we are connected via telephone.
05:14There is Ms. Rita Effendi, Investment Consultant,
05:17Founder of Indonesia Investment Education.
05:20Good morning, Ms. Rita.
05:22Good morning, Sir.
05:25Thank you for joining us on Market Plus this morning, Ms. Rita.
05:29If we highlight a little bit from the HSG movement,
05:31which weakened significantly,
05:33the stock market became heavy,
05:35and the stock market also weakened significantly.
05:40What can you highlight from yesterday's trade, Ms. Rita?
05:44Yes, technically, yesterday's index closed at 3,016.
05:50So, the index has formed a lower low.
05:54It's below 7,030.
05:56So, the potential for a correction is that the index can be below 7,000.
06:01Technically, yes.
06:03Because heavy factors such as unbanking and other bullshit
06:08can be corrected because of the weakening of the index.
06:12Yesterday, the index was quite weak, up to 3,016.
06:17And that caused some big cap to be released by Hang Seng.
06:21And then, on January 15th,
06:25there will be a potential for an increase in CPI inflation from the US,
06:29which will reduce the expectation of a close relationship cut in 2025.
06:34That also weakens our currency.
06:38So, if our currency is weak,
06:40our index is usually quite tense.
06:43Because Hang Seng usually hasn't entered yet.
06:47So, the increase in CPI inflation hasn't been too positive.
06:53The growth hasn't decreased yet.
06:55So, that's what causes a correction in the banking sector.
06:58Okay, so this will continue to be a correction, Ms. Rita?
07:05Yes, there is a potential for a weakening.
07:08But maybe because the US dollar is weak,
07:12there will be a transition to Hang Seng US dollar earner.
07:16So, a stock that has an income in the US currency.
07:21So, like Batu Barat,
07:24maybe other communities,
07:27Oil, Timas,
07:29maybe Tantan, which was also quite high yesterday.
07:33Yes, so Hang Seng is based on export, right?
07:36Yes.
07:37Okay.
07:38Then, Mr. Sam Sam,
07:40maybe the corn business is doing too many imports.
07:44This is usually avoided, right?
07:47Because it's related to the weakness of the US dollar.
07:51Okay.
07:52If we talk about a moment
07:54to take advantage of the weaknesses of the banks.
07:56If we look at it,
07:58BBRI has become one of the banks-based stocks
08:03that weighs the movement yesterday
08:05because the weakness is quite significant.
08:06Even if you want to see this as a moment to enter,
08:09it can't be used to enter, right?
08:12Because according to your projection,
08:14the weakness will continue to be like this
08:17and also maybe for the banks-based stocks.
08:20Yes, it looks like,
08:21if you look at the foreign trade pressure,
08:23it's still quite big yesterday.
08:25After that, there is still no positive signal
08:30that can make this stock rebound in the short term.
08:34But maybe we can look at it from a financial point of view.
08:38If the Rupiah has a strong movement,
08:41then these banks can be interesting.
08:46First, oversold.
08:48Then the second,
08:50if the Rupiah is good,
08:52there will usually be foreign funds coming in.
08:55Okay.
08:56Maybe that can also be a momentum
08:58to increase the price of the banks.
09:01Okay.
09:02So, in terms of valuation for both banks,
09:04has this been overbought or what?
09:06Ms. Rita.
09:07So, maybe technically,
09:09investors want to see
09:11that this is indeed a momentum
09:13that is used to be released first
09:15because it has been overbought.
09:16Later, if there is already an interesting level of support,
09:20it can go in again.
09:23From my understanding,
09:25it's actually already cheap.
09:27In terms of cheap valuation,
09:29technically also oversold.
09:32But there is no flow.
09:35There is no interest from big investors.
09:41That's why if we look at it,
09:43the number of retail investors in BBRI is increasing significantly.
09:48Yesterday, I also had a chance to make a content
09:51about the number of BBRI holders.
09:54In the middle of December 31,
09:57the retail price was already Rp 653,000.
10:02In the middle of the year, it was only Rp 500,000.
10:06So, the increase was distributed to retail.
10:10It means that this is actually a positive indicator.
10:14So, the movement from the price of BBRI itself
10:18will not depend on what foreign investors do.
10:24Because retail or domestic investors
10:29are mostly those who own BBRI.
10:32Or what is it like, Ms. Rita?
10:36So, if it is distributed to retail,
10:39it means that there is no big money going up.
10:43These are all small sales.
10:45So, the impact will be very dependent
10:48if there is already a big anti-performer.
10:51Usually, if it is distributed like this,
10:53it usually takes a long time.
10:57You have to wait for the big money.
10:59The big money and momentum.
11:01If it is distributed to retail,
11:03it will be like Samren.
11:06But in the beginning, the retail price was very low.
11:10And this is also waiting for the momentum
11:12to be able to enter again.
11:15These big funds.
11:17Okay.
11:18If we look at some sentiments
11:20related to macro in Indonesia,
11:22the meeting of the Indonesian Bank Governors' Council,
11:24is there anything that can be expected?
11:26Or is there anything that can be discussed?
11:30The possibility of the meeting of the Governors' Council
11:33on January 14th to 15th
11:36will still hold.
11:38The rate is around 6%.
11:40So, there is still no positive signal
11:43for BBRI, actually.
11:46But we just have to wait.
11:50Will the U.S. be affected?
11:56Because now it is very strong against all currencies.
12:00Now there is no such thing.
12:02It is still very strong.
12:04The DXY index is still very strong.
12:06Okay.
12:07In terms of projection from the Rupiah movement itself,
12:10what do you see?
12:13More or less, then,
12:14just like what you said earlier,
12:16related to the ESG projection,
12:18will there be a potential for a correction?
12:21Or what do you think?
12:23It seems that the Rupiah will continue to weaken.
12:28There is no positive catalyst
12:32from within the country
12:34that can make the Rupiah strengthen.
12:37In fact, there is a potential.
12:39Yesterday, there were 16,300 resistance.
12:43That will make the Rupiah rise to 16,580.
12:49Okay.
12:50So, it seems that it will still hold around 16,000.
12:55Maybe the worst can be 16,000-16,700.
12:57Okay.
12:58Then, what is the strategy of investment
13:01that is quite wise in the middle of foreign net sales right now?
13:06Because our Rupiah is weak,
13:08and the ESG is strong,
13:11or if we look at the average,
13:13there are a lot of U.S. donor-earners.
13:17Those with U.S. income.
13:19Companies like CPO.
13:21We saw yesterday that some of the CPOs
13:23had a very interesting move.
13:25Sambatubara.
13:27And Sambatubara also has a catalyst potential
13:31for a decrease in royalty
13:33that is rumored to happen this month.
13:37But I don't know if it's true or not.
13:39We're still waiting for the news.
13:42Then, if we look at it,
13:45companies like Fintz
13:47also had a very interesting move
13:49because there was a rebound.
13:51Metco, Antal,
13:53the average is still in the community.
13:56So, in terms of valuation,
13:58is it interesting or not?
14:00Even though it's already a premium price,
14:04but instead of leaving the portfolio as it is,
14:08it will become an interesting sector
14:10to enter, right?
14:13Yes.
14:14There is also the potential for some stocks
14:16to enter the MSCI.
14:18Because MSCI will be announced around February.
14:22Okay.
14:24Before we discuss about the options
14:28that you recommended this morning,
14:30we will first update the news
14:32about the opening of IHSG this morning.
14:35IHSG was opened at 0.15% at level 7027.735.
14:41So far, the top gainers are
14:44RATUK, CBDK, WIFI,
14:47JSPT, MPOW, DAZ, MPWA,
14:51BABY, GPSO, HGII,
14:55Top Losers, AMMN, ARNA,
14:58CMRY, DGWG, DOH, DSNG,
15:01GZCO, HALO, INDF, IOTF, and ISSP.
15:07Okay.
15:08If we look at the success of Bangun Kosami,
15:10some time ago, you did an IPO.
15:13What was your analysis
15:15about this stock, Ms. Rita?
15:19CBDK is more of a sentiment group,
15:22because it is one of the groups
15:25that attracts the attention of investors
15:28because of its long-term growth.
15:31So, it is more of a sentiment group
15:34if we look at the property sector.
15:39Because CBDK is in the property sector,
15:42there is not a single company
15:44that is very interesting in this sector.
15:47But it is more of an owner,
15:49or more of a pick-two.
15:51So, it is one of the top sellers.
15:54Yes, even though PANI
15:56was the main seller yesterday,
15:58it dropped by 7.5%.
16:00Yes, it was a profit-taking.
16:02It was a sell-out news
16:04because the investors were already IPO.
16:07Okay.
16:08So, in the next session,
16:10we will discuss some of your choices.
16:12Stay tuned, we will be right back.
16:14Thank you for joining us.
16:16I am still talking with Ms. Rita.
16:18We will discuss some of the choices
16:21from the analysts,
16:23including TAPG,
16:25TINZ, ANTM, and MEDCO.
16:28With recommendations from TAPG,
16:32with support at 7.7.0,
16:34resistance at 7.75,
16:36TINZ with support at 10.40,
16:39resistance at 1.100,
16:41ANTAM with support at 1.4.20,
16:44resistance at 1.6.55,
16:46and MEDCO with support at 10.70,
16:49and resistance at 1.1.70.
16:51For TAPG, please go ahead, Ms. Rita, for the analysis.
16:57TAPG was a very interesting move yesterday
17:00because TAPG had a break-resistance at 7.75.
17:05Finally, it was expected to reach the ascending triangle at 860.
17:13And yesterday, if we look at the price of the IPO,
17:16it went up quite a bit for a few days.
17:19And TAPG had a pretty good correction yesterday.
17:22So it's already in the trend,
17:24there's potential for it to go back to the uptrend again.
17:26Although, if we look at the price,
17:28it's not too big right now,
17:30but it can be considered.
17:32Okay, TAPG is the last price.
17:34Is this an interesting level to enter, Ms. Rita?
17:39It's still interesting.
17:41If we look at it, it's below 800.
17:43Around 7.90, 7.95.
17:45But don't say 7.70,
17:47if it's below 7.70,
17:49technically, it will be a failure.
17:51It won't be a rebound.
17:53Okay, okay.
17:54TAPG, with a good recommendation,
17:56is it just short-term?
17:58Yes.
17:59For the time being,
18:01it's better to be short-term,
18:03because the change is very fast.
18:08If we look at it,
18:09now the index is 7.025,
18:11so it's a bit of a rebound.
18:12But the index is already corrected.
18:14If there is a change in the news,
18:17it turns out that there is a flow,
18:19or the US dollar suddenly weakens,
18:21the strong one can move all the stocks
18:23that have been corrected.
18:25Okay, so we're just for short-term trading,
18:28for the safest investment strategy.
18:31Okay, good.
18:32From TAPG to Tinz,
18:34what is it like, Ms. Rita?
18:37Tinz also rebounded yesterday,
18:40so it's also quite interesting today,
18:43even though it was held in 1070,
18:47so actually Tinz will be better
18:49if it can break the resistance at 1100.
18:52If Tinz breaks the resistance at 1100,
18:55it will be very potential for Tinz
18:57to continue the rally at 1225.
18:59But if it fails,
19:02now it's 1070,
19:04it doesn't look like there's much movement,
19:07maybe because the market has just opened.
19:10But if it's 1040,
19:12we have to cut it,
19:14because it's a failure.
19:16But if it can't break,
19:18it will be at 1225.
19:20Okay, technically interesting,
19:22but fundamentally, what is it like,
19:24how is the problem related to governance
19:27becomes a concern for Tinz herself, Ms. Rita?
19:32In our opinion,
19:35if there is a long process
19:38from the last few days,
19:40it will be more positive,
19:42because illegal mining will be more challenged.
19:47So if everything is more focused,
19:50the illegal mining will decrease.
19:54Okay, so this means...
19:56So the potential of Tinz will be better
19:58later in the long term.
20:01Okay, it will be a momentum
20:03to improve the work of the mining itself, right?
20:07Yes.
20:08Okay.
20:12Okay.
20:13From Tinz, let's move on to Antam.
20:15How is it, Ms. Rita?
20:39Okay.
20:52Okay.
20:55Okay.
20:56Antam itself is currently at level 140-180.
21:00This will be an interesting level
21:03to enter, Ms. Rita.
21:09Okay.
21:11From Antam, let's go to Medco first.
21:14What is it like for Medco?
21:39Hmm.
21:53Okay.
22:04Okay.
22:08Okay.
22:31Okay.
22:32Okay.
23:02Okay.
23:08Okay.
23:18Okay.
23:32Okay.
23:37Okay.
23:44Okay.
23:59Okay, thank you.