Tasmania, eastern Victoria, and southern NSW on high alert for potentially wild weather, as a coldfront brings an end to the heatwave in Sydney around midnight on Wednesday January 15, 2025.
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00:00Severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of New South Wales and Victoria as well as the ACT today,
00:06as a cold front moves across the southeast states.
00:09We can see that cold front in the satellite imagery here,
00:12sweeping through Victoria and Tasmania with a band of cloud.
00:16Now, the cold front has actually already moved through Melbourne,
00:19bringing some scattered thunderstorms with it.
00:22Through the remainder of today, that front and the low pressure trough associated with it
00:27is expected to move across Tasmania, eastern Victoria and southeastern parts of New South Wales,
00:33really ramping up the shower and thunderstorm activity across these areas.
00:38As we go into the evening and overnight period tonight,
00:41this low pressure trough will move up the New South Wales coast,
00:45bringing a blustery, cool southerly change to Sydney,
00:49likely around midnight or into the early hours of tomorrow morning.
00:52This change will continue moving up the coast through Thursday,
00:56reaching those northern coastlines a little later in the morning.
00:59But as that cold front moves across the southeast today,
01:02it's going to create an environment really conducive to severe thunderstorms.
01:07We can see that reflected in today's thunderstorm forecast.
01:10Now, storms are possible across broad parts of the east today,
01:14with severe storms a risk from southeast Queensland all the way down into eastern Victoria.
01:20In those areas, marked yellow on this map,
01:23we could see the heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding,
01:25the damaging wind gusts or the large hail.
01:28But there is a real focal area for our severe storms today,
01:32this red area on the map, which shows us where severe thunderstorms are likely.
01:37Now for today, that severe likely area includes the southern and southwest slopes of New South Wales,
01:43the ACT and Canberra, and much of northeastern Victoria.
01:48In those areas, marked in red, we are most likely to see the severe thunderstorms
01:52through the course of this afternoon and evening,
01:55and we're most likely to see those really severe weather impacts that come with the severe storms.
02:00Those include flash flooding, water moving quickly over the roads,
02:04which could quickly lead to very dangerous driving conditions, road closures and detours.
02:09We could also see trees and tree limbs brought down by the strong winds.
02:13We could also see damage to crops, vegetation and possibly even property
02:17from that combination of strong winds, heavy rainfall and possible hail.
02:23Now, how will this situation unfold after today?
02:27Starting from Thursday morning, we are going to see the trough
02:31gradually moving offshore from the New South Wales coast.
02:34A low pressure system is likely to develop along that trough line,
02:38somewhere off the New South Wales coast.
02:41It is expected that we will have strong southerly winds pushing right up the New South Wales coast
02:46through the later part of Thursday into Friday.
02:48Hazardous surf is a risk from tomorrow with gale force winds for many of our marine areas.
02:54As we go through that period though, we're also likely to see the rain
02:58really ramping up across parts of the central and northern coastlines.
03:02That's likely to continue through Friday and into Saturday.
03:06The highest rainfall totals will depend on how close that low comes to the coast,
03:10but it is expected to gradually move off as we go into Saturday and Sunday.
03:15We'll start to see those heavy rain and strongest wind impacts gradually starting to ease.
03:21So, having a quick look at what the rainfall totals may look like over the next few days.
03:26For today, the highest rainfall totals will really be tied to where
03:29severe storms develop through the southeast.
03:32But as we go into that Thursday to Saturday period,
03:35we're going to see the rainfall really ramping up
03:37about those central and northern coastlines of New South Wales.
03:40Widespread moderate rainfall is expected with that low pressure trough and low pressure system,
03:46and we may even see some localised falls exceeding the three-digit mark.
03:51The exact areas of the highest falls, as I said,
03:54will depend on how quickly that low develops and exactly where it tracks over the weekend.
03:59Communities right across these areas are advised to keep a close eye on our
04:03latest forecasts and warnings via the Bureau's website,
04:06the BOM Weather app and via our social media.
04:08Stay safe and we'll catch you in the next update.