Budget 2025: सॉवरेन गोल्ड बॉन्ड पर बड़ा ऐलान! कमोडिटी मार्केट की बजट से क्या उम्मीदें? GoodReturns

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Budget 2025: देश का बजट 1 फरवरी, 2025 को संसद में पेश होगा. केंद्रीय वित्त मंत्री निर्मला सीतारमण उम्मीदों का बजट पेश करेंगी. बजट को लेकर आमजन हो या खास, सेक्टर हो या फिर इंडस्ट्री सबको काफी उम्मीदे हैं. इसमें कमोडिटी मार्केट की भी कई उम्मीदें हैं. क्या ड्यूटी कट पर बड़ा ऐलान हो सकती है? 2025 में सोने और चांदी में आगे कितनी तेजी देखने को मिल सकती है? डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपए में जारी गिरावट कब थमेगी? गुडरिटर्न्स की स्पेशल सीरीज FUTURE FOCUS: BUDGET 2025 के नए एपिसोड में इन सभी टॉपिक पर खास बातचीत के लिए HDFC सिक्योरिटीज के कमोडिटीड एंड करेंसीज प्रोडक्ट हेड के अनुज गुप्ता जुड़े...      #budget2025 #unionbudget2025 #sharemarket #budget2025expectations #nirmalasitharaman #incometax #stockstobuy #focusstock #focussector #budgetstocks #budgetsession #defencesector #railwaybudget #breakingnews #hindinews  Also Read  Budget 2025: Parliament Session For Union Budget FY26 Will Start On January 31 And End On April 4; Details :: https://www.goodreturns.in/news/budget-2025-parliament-session-for-union-budget-fy26-will-start-on-january-31-and-end-on-april-4-1399929.html?ref=DMDesc  Budget 2025 Expectations: What Are The Priorities For Capex Push, Tax Relief & Fiscal Deficit? :: https://www.goodreturns.in/personal-finance/planning/budget-2025-expectations-what-are-the-priorities-for-capex-push-tax-relief-fiscal-deficit-1399521.html?ref=DMDesc  2025 Budget Preview: 20% Capex Increase For Railways Seen For FY26 :: https://www.goodreturns.in/news/indian-railways-set-for-significant-capital-expenditure-increase-in-fy26-011-1399423.html?ref=DMDesc    ~PR.147~ED.148~GR.121~HT.96~

Transcript

00:00Hello friends, my name is Digvijay Singh. Welcome to the special series of Good Returns

00:10on Budget, Future Focus, Budget 2025. Today our focus is on the Commodity Market. What

00:17are the expectations in the Commodity Market regarding the Budget? What kind of possibilities

00:22are being shown? To talk about this, we have Anuj Gupta, the Product Head of SDFC Securities

00:28who is joining us. Anuj Sir, welcome to our special program.

00:34Hello Digvijay.

00:35Sir, the Budget is going to be presented on 1st February. What are the expectations of

00:40the Commodity Market? Please tell our viewers.

00:43Whenever the Budget is presented, there is a lot of enhancement for the Commodity Market

00:48because if you look at the Commodity Market entirely, there is a lot of focus on Agri,

00:53Metals. Because if you look at the Indian economy, it is almost 70% Agri based. So,

01:00there is a lot of focus on Commodity, CapEx is increasing. But if we talk about the particular

01:06futures market or if we talk about the trading side, then definitely there is a Commodity

01:12Transaction Test which is very much in progress. And if you look at it, it has been 13-14 years

01:17and there is a demand to remove it. So, it is always on priority because the volume of

01:24the future trading in the Commodity is reduced due to CTT. Although we have seen a good volume

01:29in the options, but in the futures market, due to CTT, we have seen a very low volume.

01:34So, it is important to remove the Commodity Transaction Test. This demand is always on

01:41priority. On the other hand, it is generally that the traders, investors, exporters, importers

01:47who use Commodity for their business, for import-export, they should be incentivized.

01:52Because if you look at it, the jewellery market is a very big market in India. If you look

01:57at it to a large extent, the export market of spices is very big. The import market is

02:02very big. If we go to the agricultural side, in pulses, in edible oil, then there should

02:07also be some incentive for those who use the futures market as a hedge for their product.

02:13So, we feel that somewhere, the investors, traders, importers, exporters, or users who

02:19trade in the Commodity futures market should get some incentive so that they can use the

02:25Commodity market as a risk tool, as a hedging tool. Along with that, we have also seen that

02:31the volumes in the futures market have been very low. We have seen a very good volume

02:36after the new product came in the options. So, new products should come. Some agricultural

02:42commodities have already been banned. It should start. And if you talk about the international

02:47front, there are many commodities that are available on international exchanges, but

02:52are not available on Indian exchanges. So, those commodities should also be launched

02:58so that there is a large area for traders to trade and all participants get a platform

03:03to hedge their products.

03:05So, it is a matter of incentive and then it is a matter of adding commodity items.

03:09One more thing is there. Sir, the last time we saw in the interim budget, the announcement

03:14about the duties, can anyone expect this time also in the budget from the Minister?

03:19The import duty that we saw being cut in the interim budget, its main objective was that

03:24the gold, silver and precious metals that were coming to India in the wrong way should

03:29be stopped. So, for that we saw that the government had already cut about 9% in the overall

03:34duty. We think that this time there will not be any special impact in the budget due to

03:40the import duty, especially due to the gold super-efficient metal. We think that this

03:45time it is possible that the government will make some announcement about the sovereign

03:50gold bond, because last year the sovereign gold bond did not come. So, it is possible

03:55that the government will make a positive announcement in front of the SGP. But yes, we think that

04:00there is no special announcement or expectation in front of the import duty.

04:04So, this is about the commodity market. So, the currency market that is in turmoil now,

04:10you will see that the Indian rupee is continuously at a record low on the downside. How do you

04:18see this? When will this stability come? What is the factor in this?

04:22The date of 4th November was very important because at that time in the US, Trump won

04:27the election. And after that we saw that the dollar index started increasing, the bond

04:32deal was seen to be increasing. So, it was decided that whenever Trump will come, he

04:36will strengthen his dollar. And due to the strength of the dollar, all the Asian currencies,

04:40if you see the rest of the Indian currencies, then all of them are seen to be happening.

04:45We have seen a weakness in the euro, we have seen a weakness in the GBP because the dollar

04:49index has increased. So, this is a global factor because we are seeing that all the

04:54currencies that are against the dollar have seen a weakness. So, if you look at India,

04:59then the fundamentals of India are not so weak that we have seen a weakness in the rupee.

05:03This is only because of the dollar because the dollar demand has increased after Trump

05:07came. And it seems that when Trump will take control of his momentum on 20th, then again

05:12you will see a little weakness in the rupee because you will see strength in the dollar

05:16because Trump clearly wants to strengthen the dollar and he has seen it.

05:21Back then, the BRICS economies said that they will launch their own currency.

05:26That's when they started imposing tariffs on them. So, I think that to strengthen the

05:30dollar, Trump will make every effort to strengthen the dollar. So, we think that this is an

05:35international factor because of which we have seen a weakness in the rupee.

05:40But if you ask about domestic currency, then there is no domestic currency because of

05:44which we have seen a weakness in the rupee. So, because of international factors, we have

05:47seen a weakness in the rupee.

05:48So, how long will this fall? My question is that when will there be stability in our

05:53currencies so that the fall that we are seeing stops or recovers from there?

05:58How long is this possible? Is there any possibility after Donald Trump takes the

06:02presidential oath? Because when you are saying that the dollar will be strong, the

06:07government will want to strengthen it. So, its impact will be negative for us.

06:12So, Rani, how much fall will we see? When will there be stability?

06:15Look, according to our research, we think that the rupee can come around Rs. 87-87.50.

06:21And we think that it will be at the maximum level from where you will again see the

06:25profit booking or the strength in the rupee. Because look, we generally see the movement

06:29before the event. When the event happens, the price discount happens. So, we think that

06:33the strength in the rupee and dollar will remain constant for 20 years. After that, we

06:38will again see a fall in the dollar. Because Trump clearly does not want any economy to

06:45grow. He puts tariffs on it. So, as soon as he starts putting tariffs, the geopolitical

06:49tension will be created. We will see weakness in the dollar. So, again, the interest will

06:56come towards India, which we have also seen. So, we think that there is a stable

07:01government in the rupee. If you see, there is a stable Indian economy. Our inflation

07:07is also in control. Our current account deficit is also in control. So, overall, all the

07:12factors are positive. So, after 20th, we think that the strength in the rupee can be seen

07:17returning.

07:18Okay, but one comment that I remember is that RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that

07:23the weakness of the rupee is good for us. But sir, many things that we order from outside,

07:30buy, whether it is an oil product or other semiconductors that we purchase, we will

07:37have to pay extra for the bills that will be generated. The necessary items that are

07:42used daily. How much impact will the weakness of the rupee have on the common man, sir?

07:48If you look at our current account deficit basket, then the import bills that we have

07:53here, oil contributes the most, whether it is petrol or cooking oil. If you look at

07:59petrol and diesel, then we are seeing that in 2024, the prices of petrol, diesel and

08:04raw oil were seen to come down a lot. Although it has started to increase a little now.

08:08But I saw that the levels came down to 70 dollars. And we believe that in 2025, the

08:13crude prices will also be in control. Because Trump believes that crude is the biggest

08:18factor for inflation. So, to control inflation, it is possible that the supplies of crude

08:23will increase. So, we think that even in 2025, there will not be a big price movement

08:28in crude. For now, we think that you will get to see a small momentum in crude. As far

08:33as edible oils are concerned, we think that we are doing a very good job on the front

08:38of edible oils. We saw that the government had also launched an oil mission. So, because

08:43of that, the supplies of oil in India will seem to be increasing somewhere. And our

08:48dependence on what we are importing will seem to be decreasing. So, we will see a benefit

08:54in the future. So, I don't think that we will see a lot of loss due to the increase

08:59in the rupee. Because what we are importing will seem to be controlled somewhere. And

09:04we will not see a bigger factor than that. But for the time being, for the short term,

09:09because there is weakness in rupee, whatever we are importing, it seems to be a little

09:14costly. Like oil, or your travel, or some medicines that we import from outside, or

09:20some machineries, some electronic items that we import from outside. The luxury items

09:25that we import from outside, it seems to be an import duty. Because of this, you have

09:30to pay a higher cost due to rupee weakness.

09:34Okay, sir. So, as you said, Donald Trump will now become the President of America.

09:41After that, his entire focus will be on America first, and after that, his aggressive

09:49mode will be fully activated. So, can we understand that the trade war that was in

09:56his tenure, which he left last time, is it going to be active again with China, the

10:02America-China trade war?

10:04Yes, absolutely. See, he has not even taken an oath yet, and if you see from 4th November

10:09till now, he has talked about a lot of tariffs. His clear verdict is that whatever is against

10:15the U.S. should be tariffed, or whatever is against the U.S. policies should be tariffed.

10:20We have seen tariffs being imposed on BRICS, tariffs being imposed on Europe due to crude

10:25and natural gas. So, somewhere we feel that tariffs will be seen here, and such announcements

10:31will definitely be seen by you, Mr. Trump, because he is a little aggressive towards

10:35the U.S. So, whatever policies are against the U.S., or whatever nation's policy is

10:40against the U.S., you will see tariffs being imposed there. So, we feel that the tariff

10:45issue will be seen in the coming days, due to which you will also see volatility in the

10:49market.

10:50So, sir, if the trade war between China and America seems possible, how will it be for

10:57India? Will it be harmful? Will it be beneficial? How? I mean, please simplify a little for

11:02our viewers. What kind of impact can it have on India and the Indians?

11:07Look, the relations with the U.S. are very good. So, we feel that if there is a tariff

11:12war between the U.S. and China, then it will have a positive impact. The Indian markets

11:18or the U.S. markets will shift from China to the Indian markets. We have seen earlier

11:23that when there was a trade war or tariff war between the U.S. and China, its direct

11:28benefit was seen to come to India. And the production of India was seen to increase

11:34here. So, we feel that in the coming days, you will see a good momentum coming towards

11:40the Indian market. And if any tariff is imposed against any other nation, it will always be

11:46positive for India. The investment of the FIS will be seen to come to India. And the

11:51trade war between India and the U.S. we saw last time, we saw a lot in the case of the

11:56FPI. I feel that if there is a positive trend between India and the U.S., then because of

12:01other nations, the investment in India will be seen to increase.

12:04One more question from the bullion market. We are seeing a correction in the equity market

12:08right now. In the starting of the new year, there was a very good atmosphere in the trading

12:12session for 2-3 days. But after that, we are seeing a correction. And this correction is

12:16from a long time. There was a little breath, but after that, the correction is going on.

12:20So, in such a situation, the bullion market, especially if we talk about gold and silver,

12:24how are you seeing this in the short to long term, sir? Tell us about it so that our viewers

12:29know at what level gold and silver will be seen in the short term and in the long term.

12:38See, the tariff or uncertainty that is going on, we are seeing that the demand for gold is

12:43increasing. And we have seen that the central banks, be it China or the Asian banks, are

12:48adding gold to their portfolios. So, this year also, we feel that the demand for central

12:53banks will play a big role. And because of that, you will see a good momentum in gold.

12:59We believe that by the end of 2025, you can see the price of gold again between Rs 80,000

13:04to Rs 82,000. And in silver, we are expecting that 5 figures will be seen again in silver,

13:09which means that it can be seen going above Rs 1 lakh. So, if you look at the overall sentiments

13:14of the market, if we talk about gold and silver, then it is optimistic because there will be

13:19more demand concern here. Because China will also try to revive. So, if China also revives,

13:25then you will see momentum in metals. And because China is the biggest user of metals,

13:30it consumes metals. So, I think because of that, there will be a good support in industrial

13:35metals. So, we think that in 2025, the market will be a little volatile. And because of that,

13:40you can see a positive trend in gold and silver due to the demand.

13:44Can you suggest any levels for silver and gold?

13:47See, we think that in gold, you can see levels from Rs 80,000 to Rs 82,000. So, if gold

13:52dips to around Rs 74,000 to Rs 75,000, then there will be a good buying opportunity. And

13:57above that, you can see levels from Rs 80,000 to Rs 82,000. If we talk about silver, then

14:02if there are levels of Rs 84,000 to Rs 85,000, then there will be a good buying opportunity

14:07where you can see levels of up to Rs 1,03,000 in silver.

14:11Is this your target for the year-end?

14:13Yes, this is my target for the year-end. As we will see this target till the year-end.

14:18Rs 82,000 gold and around Rs 1,03,000 silver.

14:21So, in the future-focused segment of Budget 2025, when we spoke to expert Anuj Gupta,

14:28we were getting a clear view that there is not much hope for the announcement of the

14:33sovereign gold bond, and there is no hope for duties.

14:38Along with that, there is talk of incentivizing, of adding some commodities.

14:43If we talk about gold and silver, there is a good chance that gold and silver will continue

14:48to be an important asset.

14:50Along with that, the fall in the currency compared to the dollar,

14:54which is the event of Trump's oath,

14:59it is not going to get support till then. It will definitely fall.

15:02So, all these things, the crunch, it is a matter of summarizing,

15:05this has come out till now.

15:06So, Anuj sir, thank you very much for joining us in this special episode

15:10to talk about the budget.

15:12Thank you so much.

15:15Whatever we have discussed here, we do not have a personal position in it.

15:19You can take a position in the market by discussing it with your risk advisor.

15:24And you can make a position by looking at the market risk.

15:27Whatever we have discussed here is only for awareness and knowledge.

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