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00:00When you have so much good action on a Saturday and Sunday in college basketball, it drops
00:06off just ever so slightly on a Monday, but still some very noteworthy games on a big
00:11Monday around college hoops.
00:14The Arrests, let's start with the number three team in the nation.
00:17That would be the Duke Blue Devils in action on the road in Charlottesville against Virginia.
00:22There's a chance the Dukies move up in the AP poll that will be released around 1 p.m.
00:26Eastern time on this Monday.
00:29And of course, with Alabama going down at home to Auburn over the weekend.
00:33Thirteen and a half points spread now in favor of Duke.
00:37Total stands at 131 and a half.
00:40This is not the Virginia basketball of old.
00:43Of course, Tony Bennett is no longer the head coach of the Cavaliers.
00:48But they are playing better basketball as of late.
00:50UVA has won four straight.
00:52Can they provide a test to the Blue Devils tonight?
00:54Yeah, you know, it's interesting, too, because you look at Virginia the past couple games,
00:58they've actually been scoring some pretty decent numbers here.
01:00But I don't know if that's going to continue tonight.
01:02Why?
01:03Duke on offense themselves, number one in efficiency and conference play in the ACC.
01:06But what do we also love about Duke?
01:08Number one on defense in the ACC play with efficiency, which then you start to fold into
01:13and say, what does Virginia not do well in offense, Ben?
01:16Well, they don't offensively rebound the basketball all that much.
01:18And when you talk about a team that plays at that glacier pace, you better get second
01:22chance opportunities.
01:23Duke's a very good defensive team rebounding the basketball.
01:26So less putbacks here, less second chance points.
01:29Also understand this, 18 teams in the ACC, 17th at getting to the free throw line.
01:35It's the Virginia Cavaliers.
01:36Fourth at fouling is the Duke Blue Devils.
01:38Not a great match.
01:39So already what we're saying, Ben, is you're not going to get second chance opportunities.
01:43You're not going to steal points at the charity stripe.
01:45That's going to hurt.
01:46Also, keep in mind, the Duke Blue Devils, number one in conference play, defending inside
01:49the arc at 43.6%.
01:52So for understanding this, Duke's going to win the game.
01:54You want to lay close to 15 points?
01:56Maybe you don't want to do that.
01:57But for me, I do look at the team total for Virginia.
02:00Even bucking the recent trend that they've been scoring points under 58 and a half, because
02:04if I look at a team that plays slow, doesn't get extra rebounds, won't get to the free
02:08throw line, going up against the most efficient defense in ACC play, I don't know if they
02:12get the 60 points.
02:13I'm willing to live with the under, despite the recent performances for Virginia on offense.
02:18Duke's the best defensive team in the ACC.
02:20That should hold true tonight as well.
02:22UVA has scored 73 points at least in five consecutive games.
02:27They've actually played to the over in 14 ACC games this year, 11 times.
02:33Not something you normally associate with UVA basketball.
02:37Now even under Ron Sanchez, longtime assistant, under Tony Bennett, the format is still very
02:42much the same.
02:44Third slowest tempo in all of the sport, not exactly efficient on the offensive side of
02:50the floor.
02:51Four straight wins.
02:52Let me correct myself, three consecutive victories for Virginia, but they've won outright as
02:58a dog in that span as well.
03:01Duke in terms of ACC play, 14 and one straight up, nine and six, Donnie, against the number.
03:08And that's because the numbers are often ridiculously double digit priced spreads.
03:14Duke's average margin of victory in ACC games, 19.9 points per game.
03:20They can certainly win this one by double digits, even on the road.
03:24I do think the total for the game overall is a little bit shy because if Virginia flirts
03:30with 60, Donnie, and even barely stays under that number and the odds track in terms of
03:35the spread and Duke is going to win by double digits or cover as a 13 and a half point favorite
03:41there into the low seventies, over 131 and a half is a way that I would look UVA going
03:47over.
03:48So often Donnie, not because it's one 55 and we're seeing high scoring affairs, but because
03:54those totals are so minimal to begin Arizona at home over the weekend, top 15 tilt hosting
04:01Houston, the Cougs and ever so slight favorite in Tucson.
04:05They won that game and covered 6,258, but a hard fought bout Arizona now on the road
04:11with a quick turnaround heading to Waco tonight.
04:15We'll pick them here.
04:16DRS for Arizona visiting Baylor.
04:19How do you see this game playing out between the Wildcats and the bears?
04:23Take a look at the free throw shooting between these two in a close game.
04:25Who do you want to lean to?
04:26Well, it's one in two in conference play, 79.3% in conference play for Arizona.
04:31Then Baylor at 79.1%.
04:33So that's where you say, okay, both of these teams going to make their free throw shots.
04:37Who's actually getting to the free throw line more.
04:39We look at Arizona's defense in conference play, but number one in the conference and
04:43not allowing you to get to the free throw line and say, why would that be important?
04:45Well, I just told you, they shoot close to 80% as a team talking about Baylor getting
04:50to the free throw line.
04:51Also point distribution for Baylor heading into this from the free throw line third in
04:55conference play.
04:56Almost 22% of their points come from the free throw line, flip it over to the opposite side
05:00for Arizona.
05:01I just told you they don't fail.
05:02How about 15% of the points going against the defense going with the 16th in the conference?
05:07So if I'm at Baylor and I'm like, you know what, I like to get to the free throw and
05:10make a lot of free throws.
05:11I don't think that's going to be there.
05:12So you can go through and acknowledge him and the Aubrey Arizona offense is good.
05:15They're looking for a bounce back, but sometimes you just like to pinpoint one spot in this
05:18game that can make a difference on a line minus one and a half.
05:22I just don't think Baylor is going to get enough free throw attempts here to use that
05:2580% to their advantage.
05:27And maybe Arizona uses that in their favor.
05:29I'll take the slight upset just based on the number at plus one and a half with Arizona.
05:35Completely agree DRS Arizona, a tough week last week, they played such better basketball.
05:40They had one conference loss entering this past week.
05:43They were on the road in the octagon, octagon of doom against a streaking K state team.
05:49Lost that game by three at home, hoping to bounce back in Tucson against maybe the best
05:53team in the sport, but certainly the best team in the big 12, that being Houston.
05:58They suffer a close four point loss to losses by a grand total of seven points.
06:04Baylor's good this year under Scott drew.
06:06They're not the elite Baylor teams we have seen in the last few seasons.
06:11Really big game, Arizona also trying to keep pace with Houston to challenge the Cougars
06:15if at all possible for the top spot in the big 12.
06:19I would also keep an eye on K state tonight on the road in salt lake catching two and
06:24a half points.
06:25The wildcats saw their six game win streak come to a close on Saturday, getting beat
06:29by double digits against BYU.
06:31But K state has remained in Utah, Utah, a huge home win over Kansas, a favorite tonight.
06:39Maybe coming down just a little bit.
06:41Any other looks for you DRS and college basketball on this Monday?
06:44No, going to get down some of the names that I usually get familiar with, like the McNeese
06:47states versus the southeastern Louisiana Lamar Northwestern state.
06:50So it's that time of the year where, as we just said, two weeks in two weeks, we should
06:54say we are going to already have conference tournament plays, which is pretty big.
06:57So get to know those teams now as they head down the stretch, catch a hot ticket, maybe
07:00be able to put some money in your pocket.
07:02So looking for it officially college basketball season with the NFL hangover gone after this
07:08weekend.
07:09We're ready for action.
07:10Those college hoops, teams, totals.
07:11It's where DRS thrives in the sport.
07:14And I mean that Donnie, have a great time on the money like we'll talk tomorrow or on
07:18the early line up next live right here on the early line, starting off a new week, but
07:24rounding out our three hours together on this Monday.
07:27Hope you have enjoyed today's show your long holiday weekend.
07:31If you're back in the fall tomorrow, of course, we'll be here on a Tuesday starting at 8 a.m.
07:36Eastern on Saturday, a big weekend of college basketball, but made even slightly bigger,
07:43although it doesn't have a ton of meaning outside of peeling back the curtain and getting
07:47a sense.
07:48And now the NCAA tournament selection committee is viewing this season in college hoops.
07:53The early bracket preview as the committee chair, Bubba Cunningham, who is the A.D. at
07:59North Carolina, reveals how the committee is seeing this season in college basketball
08:04in the top 16 overall seeds at this moment, four teams in the top four seed lines, all
08:10four ones, all four twos, all four threes, and all four fours.
08:15Now fewer than four weeks away from selection Sunday.
08:20Here is how it broke down on Saturday.
08:23They went region by region.
08:24Part of this I will try to explain based on locale in just a moment.
08:29But Auburn, the number one overall seed who could fault the committee for that proven
08:33immediately correct just a few hours later as Auburn goes into Tuscaloosa and knocks
08:38off the Crimson Tide in the first one versus two in SEC men's basketball history ever as
08:45a road underdog.
08:47Auburn has 14 quad one wins.
08:50Only one other team in the country, that being Alabama, has at least 14 quad one plus quad
08:55two victories at this moment, and the Tigers have done this playing one of the most difficult
09:01schedules in the country.
09:03Auburn is going to be, in my estimation, unless disaster strikes on the plains in the next
09:08few weeks, knock on wood, the number one overall seed come selection Sunday in just about four
09:15weeks.
09:16So Auburn, the number one overall seed.
09:18The other three top seeds in the South region, Texas A&M, Wisconsin is the three, Texas Tech
09:24as the four, Alabama, Purdue, Iowa State and Kansas in a loaded Midwest top four at
09:31this moment, the West, Florida, the final one seed, which means Houston would be the
09:38top overall two seed, Kentucky and Michigan, Duke, Tennessee, Arizona, and St. John's.
09:46Those top four teams out East now, Bubba Cunningham, again, the selection committee chair was asked
09:53about this on Saturday because Auburn is the number one overall seed.
09:59They get to choose which region is most favorable, where they would want to play in the final
10:04four, where they would want to play, not the final four, where they would want to play
10:07in the sweet 16 and the elite eight in the regional semi and final.
10:12I believe the South region is set to play in Atlanta.
10:15Of course, Auburn wants to play there, but with so many top heavy SEC teams in this bracket
10:22reveal three of the four teams on the one line as you tally it up, seven overall or
10:30six overall, rather top teams here overall in the top 16.
10:37You have six of the top 16, nearly half from the SEC.
10:41There are going to be some favorable spots for those other teams.
10:45For instance, the East regional this year, the semifinal and final matchup, the elite
10:50eight and sweet 16, that's in Newark, New Jersey.
10:54That would be pretty fun for St. John's if they were to get to that point.
10:58Of course, the selection committee chair in Bubba Cunningham saying he is understanding
11:03of location and they try to not make it a priority, but sometimes it's just how the
11:08bracket were to play out and with so many SEC teams in that early bracket preview of
11:13the top 16 overall seeds, something to pay attention to again, the four teams on the
11:19one line, Auburn, Alabama, Duke in Florida, in that order, Florida being the last team
11:28on the one line is notable and I believe here if I can try to find it, I'm not sure the
11:35odds are out.
11:36I know over the weekend at times there were odds to be a one seed in the NCAA tournament
11:43in Florida had a juicy plus six 50 price.
11:47I would keep an eye on the Gators.
11:49If that market becomes available again, I would also keep an eye on the Gators in terms
11:55of those national championship prices, because here are the updated odds.
11:59Auburn, a short favorite now kind of widening that gap in front of Duke at a three to one
12:05price.
12:06It is hard to argue the resume or the eye test of what we see out of the Tigers at this
12:11moment deserving to be those solo favorites to win a national championship, Duke, second
12:17best price, Houston and Florida tied for that third best number at nine to one, Alabama
12:22rounds out the top five at 10 to one, some really intriguing numbers as of this moment,
12:29and it will only get better and better as we get closer to March in these final two
12:34weeks or so of February, the early line returns tomorrow, 8am Eastern time on the grid.