IHSG -2,34% ke 6.591,43 di sesi I Selasa (25/2/25). Semua sektor melemah, dengan 4 sektor melemah dalam di antaranya, barang baku -3,68%, MDKA -7%. Sektor barang konsumer non primer -2,82%, ACES -4,73%. Sektor perindustrian -2,81%, ASII -3,19%. Sektor energi -2,66%, RAJA -6,53%. Dari sisi saham, emiten BBRI -2,81%, BMRI -2,493, dan TLKM -4,23% jadi pemberat IHSG. IHSG melemah dalam tersengat sentimen dari riset Morgan Stanley, yang memangkas peringkat saham MSCI Indonesia dari equal weight jadi Underweight.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us in this segment of Pemirsa, we will review the trade path throughout the day in the Samkabungan area, which has undergone quite a deep correction.
00:16And we remind you again that you can still participate in our interactive WhatsApp, as shown on the television screen and later.
00:23Right now, we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Rio Rizaldi, who is the Founder of Galeri Saham.
00:29We will go straight to him. Good evening, Mr. Rio. How are you, sir?
00:33Good evening, Mr. David. I'm fine, sir.
00:36Thank you, Mr. Rio, for taking the time to be on the IDA channel.
00:40Bad news comes from Indekargasam-Kabungan. Today, it has undergone quite a deep correction of more than 2%.
00:47Mr. Rio, how do you see it from a technical point of view? What is the most pressing issue that has occurred throughout today's trade?
00:54Yes, if we look at what is currently going on today, sir, regarding Morgan Stanley underweighting Samsung MSI Indonesia.
01:02Actually, if we look at the IASG itself, it is basically since the IASG has been unable to survive above the level of 7,500,
01:09more or less at the end of last year, it did indicate that the market optimism began to decline.
01:14And slowly, the IASG fell to its lowest level at around 6,490 in early February.
01:22Well, basically, we see that in terms of trends, the short-term trend, the IASG is indeed in a downtrend phase.
01:29Downtrend here, we can see that the IASG is heading towards the support area, which we can say that this is an important support and strong support,
01:40it is more or less at the level of 6,550 to around 6,475. So, it becomes a strong support target for the IASG.
01:52And this is also a strong support that has been formed since the pandemic.
01:57Maybe if you can see that since 2022, our index has always rebounded to the level of 6,470 to 6,500 and this is already heading there.
02:10So basically, even though in terms of short-term trends, the IASG is still in a downtrend phase,
02:15but if we look at the range of the IASG price movement in the past 2-3 years, basically, this is already in the bottom areas.
02:29Okay. In terms of sentiment, what is it like, Mr. Ryo?
02:32Earlier, there was also Morgan Stanley, then the US rate is getting wider, then there was the launch of land funds yesterday,
02:40then there was also a plan to launch this bullion bank, from the domestic sentiment.
02:45How do you see the composition or contribution from this sentiment to the weakening of the IASG?
02:51Yes, basically, we can conclude that investors will see if there is something uncertain or still waiting for implementation.
03:01Of course, investors will choose to look for safety.
03:06Looking for safety in the sense of doing underweight against an object that they think is still uncertain.
03:11We can see here that the Indonesian government's economic policy has undergone a slight transition from the previous government to the current government.
03:20So basically, we can assume that this is a good thing in the end,
03:26but when the implementation of something new is still being questioned,
03:31whether the process is smooth, whether it can succeed according to its purpose,
03:36investors tend to draw attention.
03:38In addition to the uncertainty in terms of the trade war between the US and China, etc.
03:44So basically, it is very normal for investors to do underweight in the Indonesian market, one of them.
03:52And in addition to the underweight from Morgan Stanley against MSCI Indonesia,
03:58it is indeed a, maybe if I can say, the climax of the decline of sentiment.
04:03The climax of the sentiment that is not so good in Indonesia.
04:07But if we look at the past, basically, sometimes we need to adapt like this.
04:15When the price is approaching the level of support and the news has come out,
04:20there is usually a trend that says, sell on rumor, buy on fact.
04:25So basically, when there is a statement that the so-called underweight in the Indonesian market and the news has come out,
04:35basically, it can be used as a turning point for traders and investors to reflect again that there may be a reversal.
04:46Okay, the point here is that whatever the sentiment, we as investors are still optimistic for the future
04:52and there will definitely be a moment of revival.
04:56That's right.
04:58Moreover, if we look at the blue chip stocks, they are already in the support area.
05:02And also the ISG itself is already in the support area, from 6,500 to 7,475.
05:08So basically, this can be monitored.
05:11It looks like what you said earlier has been confirmed.
05:13It looks like Mr. Aryo is in the position of the current shareholder index.
05:17The latest development, although it is still weak at 2%,
05:20technically it has returned to the level of 6,600.
05:24Then from the side of the movers who cut the weakness so far,
05:28there is a BBNI BKB bank trying to go back to the green zone at 0.48% at level 4,220.
05:35How do you see this position?
05:37There seems to be a resistance, even though there are only a few minutes of closing,
05:42then a projection for the movement of joint indexes the next day.
05:46Yes, that's right.
05:47So if we look at the position that I mentioned earlier,
05:50that Samsung BKB, Samsung Blue Chip are generally in the support area.
05:54And the ISG itself is already in the support area of 6,500.
05:57Basically, technically, this can lure traders to make purchases.
06:04Moreover, it has dropped quite a bit since the last week.
06:07So this is a moment for short-term traders to make purchases to seek short-term profits.
06:16But basically, the point here is that we see that the support of 6,500 is a support for ISG
06:22and the bad news that has come out.
06:25Sorry, not bad news, but the bad outlook that has come out.
06:29This can be a justification for all the decline in ISG since the end of last year.
06:34So if we see that the news, the bad news is there.
06:42Basically, this can be an opportunity to make purchases in important support areas for Samsung.
06:51Okay, the question is, what are the sectors and Samsung that can still be lured
06:56in the middle of the decline in the Samsung family today,
06:59especially for those who are already in the support area?
07:06Basically, when the ISG is low, Samsung BKB will definitely rebound first.
07:12When it comes to Samsung BKB, there are many things.
07:14So not all Samsung BKB have good performance.
07:17But basically, the big banks will be one of the leaders of investors or money inflow when the index is declining.
07:27So maybe we can see stocks like BCA, BRI, Mandiri, and BNI as one of the interesting choices in the middle of the declining ISG.
07:37Okay, let's go straight to BBRI, sir.
07:39BBRI is weakening at 3%, getting deeper.
07:42And it's at level 3,800, the lowest intraday today.
07:47And it looks like this is also the lowest level, at least not in the last 6 months, sir, for BBRI.
07:54Analysis and recommendations, how good is the level for BBRI?
07:58Yes, basically, if we look at BBRI, there is strong support at level 3,800.
08:04With the decline of BBRI from the end of January to level 3,800, almost now,
08:11it means that it has been corrected by around 12% to 13%.
08:14Basically, this can be a level that is worthy of being respected by traders.
08:19If tomorrow there are no strong selling pressures,
08:24level 3,800 can be a level for BBRI rebound.
08:28Where for the rebound target, the resistance is already around 4,080 to 4,100, David.
08:37Okay, by chance, there is a question on our interactive WhatsApp, sir.
08:40Mr. Robertus, BBRI is stuck at 4,175, just hold or averaging down?
08:47If tomorrow there is no strong selling pressure and it can stay at level 3,800,
08:53this can be a moment to increase the BBRI position to be sold when there is a rebound.
08:59Okay, at what level, sir? In today's closing?
09:02Yes, so level support 3,800, tomorrow if it can stay at level 3,800,
09:09it will be a very interesting buying level for BBRI.
09:13Okay, today's closing at 3,800 decreased by 3.06%.
09:19When at the support level, Mr. Robertus had it at 4,175.
09:23And again, the investment decision is still in the hands of the ADI Channel.
09:27Moving to BBRI, sir, today it also decreased by 3%, 4,870. Closing?
09:35Yes, if we look at BBRI, basically we can see that there is a strong support
09:41later at the independent bank at level 4,650.
09:46So with the current closing condition at 4,870, there is still an upside.
09:53But try to notice, 4,650 will be a level that if it is achieved,
10:01it will be very interesting for the buyers because it is a strong historical support for this stock.
10:08And it can be a rebound point.
10:12And basically, if the IHSG has experienced a rebound,
10:15basically this stock will also be one of the ones hunted by the investors.
10:20Today's closing at 4,870, sir, still far from 4,650.
10:25Correct.
10:26What is the momentum? Do we have to wait for 4,650, which is quite a long range?
10:31Or in today's closing, it is also not a problem to recommend buy on weakness, at least not?
10:38If we look at the price position towards support,
10:41then BBRI will be more interesting to monitor than BMRI.
10:45And basically that can be a priority, sir, in BBRI too.
10:50Okay, compared to other BBRI, BBCA and BBNI, which is the most interesting BBRI today?
10:58In terms of support, BBRI is the winner.
11:03Okay, analysis and recommendations from several BKB investors
11:07who have experienced quite a deep correction today
11:10and are also looking for the biggest supporters for the Samkabungan stock price
11:13and again, the investment decision is still in the hands of the investors of IDX Channel.
11:17Mr. Aryo, we will not dwell on it,
11:19later we will try to see what options you recommend
11:23and at the same time, the trading closing update in the second session today.
11:26And investors, we will be right back.
11:33Transcription by ESO. Translation by —