This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. A look at Spring so far and how it compares to others. Plus how warm will this high pressure get? Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Honor Criswick.
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NewsTranscript
00:00High pressure has pretty much been in charge of our weather since the end of February but why is
00:05this? What does it mean for spring so far and how are we comparing to previous springs and is the
00:13high pressure here to stay? So many questions so little answers hopefully until the end of this
00:18video where I'm going to aim to answer as many of those questions as I can. Hello and welcome
00:24to this week's deep dive my name's Anna Krizwick I'm a meteorologist and presenter here at the
00:29Met Office. Of course it's Tuesday so it's deep dive day. Hello to those viewers who come every
00:35week and if you're new welcome and make sure you subscribe and like this video. We do all sorts of
00:41content across our YouTube channel and across our social media channels including our deep dive today
00:46we've got 10 day trend tomorrow we've got weather studio live on Friday so make sure you are subscribed
00:51so you don't miss any of the good stuff. So I'm going to start off by talking through our weather
00:56so far you might have noticed it's been mostly dry and it's all thanks to this high pressure H for
01:04high pressure not H for honor and we've had high pressure pretty much dominating our weather for
01:10the last few months. Now it's been slightly different it's sometimes drifted off towards
01:16Europe allowed some systems to come through but then high pressure has quickly built back in that's a
01:21pretty similar story as to what we're going to see over the next few days and it's not uncommon to
01:27have this is what we call a blocking high and we tend to see this when our jet stream looks wavy like
01:34this this is called an amplified pattern so an amplified pattern is when the jet stream dips down
01:39dips back up northwards and back down south and because of this we tend to get areas of high pressure
01:44building underneath that jet and they tend to stick around. What's unusual about this one is that
01:50it's not really gone anywhere since around about the end of February so for much of spring in
01:56particular we've had high pressure so it's been very sunny it's been very dry and last week it
02:01actually got very warm we got one of our warmest starts to May on record we've also had one of our
02:06sunniest Aprils on record as well which I'm going to talk about in a moment. So is the high pressure
02:13sticking around? Well let's take a look if I'm just going to turn off the jet stream for now so this is
02:19Tuesday afternoon if we head through on Wednesday we can see high pressure still with us skipped
02:27through into Thursday still with us as we head through in towards the end of the week still with
02:34us but notice the centre of the high once again drifting its way towards parts of Europe this is
02:40allowing some frontal systems eventually to sweep their way in low pressure just to the northwest of
02:46Iceland there so that does mean by the time we reach it's quite slow moving as high pressure is still
02:51the dominant feature across the UK but by the time we reach later Saturday into Sunday that could just
02:58bring in a bit more cloud perhaps some light outbreaks of rain to the very far northwest of the
03:05country but otherwise high pressure fine and settled. That centre of the high that we've we're seeing at the
03:13beginning of the week slipping its way towards Europe but notice another area of high pressure
03:17building back in this time into the northwest. We saw a similar pattern last week actually over the
03:23weekend dipping away and then another area building back in from the north that brought us the cooler
03:28temperatures it brought us in that northerly flow over the weekend so even though it was largely dry
03:32largely sunny bar a few showers in the east it was still largely dry and sunny but it did get a lot cooler
03:39with that more northerly flow. So as always it's very much dependent on whereabouts the high pressure
03:44sits but overall we do tend to get more dry settled weather. Another thing to know actually by the time
03:49we get to Sunday if I turn on our air mass temperatures just notice there's a little bit of
03:55an area of low pressure just towards the Bay of Biscay here dragging in a frontal system that just could push
04:02up across parts of the southwest so a warmer humid more kind of plume of air just pushing up across the
04:08southwest and an occlusion feature so a chance we could see some showers into Sunday across the southwest
04:15and they could turn heavy and thundery so it is a bit of a watch point for this week particularly as
04:19there's not much else going on so a chance of some heavy thundery showers on Sunday a very low risk
04:24very low risk that we could see a warning for those thunderstorms but the main watch point I suppose
04:30over the next few days. So in terms of weather then if you haven't already guessed over the next few
04:36days it's not really changing that much. I'm going to skip forward to Wednesday by the time this goes
04:43out Tuesday will be Tuesday afternoon so Wednesday, Thursday, Friday into the weekend mostly dry. Now a few
04:51caveats there is going to be some cloud at times we can see as we head into tomorrow it's going to be a
04:56fair amount of low cloud particularly across central areas so we enter Thursday northeastern areas
05:01catching a fair amount of cloud the north of England on Friday obviously that system is starting
05:06to move its way in from the northwest as we head into Saturday so thicker cloud and some outbreaks
05:11a very light rain possibly just clipping the far northwest Shetland in particular could be at risk
05:18here but it's it's not going to be anything really impactful or unusual we're not really concerned
05:23about rainfall totals or anything like that so on the whole dry settled that cloud could be thick
05:29enough to produce the odd shower so if you're unlucky you might catch a shower but overall the
05:34general consensus high pressure dry settled over the next few days. But how warm is it going to get
05:42obviously we like the sunshine but we also tend to like it being a little bit warmer as well. So let's take a look
05:48at temperatures over the next few days here we go oh no that was the right one got too keen. So if I head over to
05:57Wednesday then we can see as we head through the week similar as to what we had last week temperatures are
06:04increasing by a degree or two day by day high pressure we've got air sinking creating that area of high pressure we've got
06:12we've got subsidence taking place so things tend to warm things tend to dry out so we're likely to see less
06:18cloud as the day goes on and things getting warmer so some slightly warmer temperatures day by day.
06:23Unlikely to get as hot as last week but still likely even tomorrow into Wednesday we could start to see the low
06:3120s perhaps just creeping up into the low 20s once again as we head into Saturday for many areas.
06:37As always a little bit of a caveat where we just see that high pressure slightly situated to the
06:42northwest we get a bit of a breeze across northeastern areas that is just going to knock down the
06:48temperatures a little bit here so feeling slightly cooler here but in the sunshine and sheltered spots
06:53it's still going to feel rather pleasant it just might not perhaps get quite as warm so on Wednesday
06:58for example we could see 18 to 20 degrees celsius particularly around central areas
07:04or kind of western Scotland perhaps might start to get those kind of temperatures but kind of a bit
07:09more widely as we head into Saturday and even Sunday looks fairly warm as well. 19, 20 we're picking up
07:1621 across the south on Sunday so temperatures are getting warmer day by day and we'll start to see a
07:22little less cloud towards the weekend as well that's away from the northwest though. So similar to last week
07:29potentially not getting quite as warm but lots of dry settled weather just in time for us all to go
07:34back to work but this time it looks like it's continuing as we head over the weekend we're not
07:38going to see that cooler spell as we did with the weekend just gone. And just to show you this in
07:45another way if we take a look at some temperature graphs here we go so let's take a look at London
07:52we can see here nicely those temperatures increasing day by day. Now with the clearer spells overnight
07:58particularly the next couple of nights it could be quite chilly for some oh that's just realised that
08:03oh I got London first time last time but we're uh it's not happening now oh well but it gives you
08:09the general jest but um the next couple of nights um cool skies light winds there's a good chance we could
08:16see some quite cool mornings even though it should be fairly bright particularly up north a very um
08:21isolated chance of even some rural frost in places um but notice even minimum temperatures as we go
08:27through the week are on the rise so it's not just maximum temperatures it's minimum temperatures as
08:32well as we go through the week. So this is across the southeast I still can't get London there look
08:38oh well uh there we go I've got Birmingham straight away so temperatures once again on the rise
08:43looking at 1920 as we head into the weekend and into next week take a look at Ireland looks like
08:50we're starting to see a brief warm spell and then temperatures cooling off that's probably fairly
08:54similar yeah across parts of Scotland as well that's just as we're going to start to get a bit more
09:00cloud feeding into the north northwest with that system running through so temperature's not going
09:04to be getting quite as warm but um still for many of us starting to see that warm spell as we head
09:09towards the weekend now on the whole it's it is good news a lot of us like the warm sunny weather but
09:17we do have to bear in mind it has been a very dry month it's been a very dry season we've seen very
09:23very little rainfall and there is still wildfires going on particularly across northern areas there's
09:29issues such as very low levels across reservoirs things like that so yes if you like if you're a fan of
09:35the warm sunny weather it is a good thing but there's also other environmental impacts that we
09:39need to do need to bear in mind so it could potentially cause further issues as we head over
09:44the next few weeks so speaking of uh being very dry being very sunny I thought it'd be quite good to
09:52take a look at spring so far obviously there's still a few weeks away or only at the beginning of May
09:59the end of meteorological spring will be the end of this month so the 31st of May a little bit later
10:05for um astronomical spring there's a slight difference in dates there but I thought we'd
10:10take a look at spring so far just because we did already have our warmest start to May we've had our
10:16sunniest April make sure I get those the right way around so I thought it'd just be interesting to
10:20take a look so far and it's probably unsurprising to note that we've had some very warm temperatures
10:29here's a graph showing our mean temperatures across springs so from the 1st of March so far so we just
10:35stop here what's the date today so this is since yesterday so 6th of May round about here now if we
10:42follow this blue line this is the kind of lowest if you compare it to average the 1991 to 2020 average
10:49this is the these are the kind of lowest mean temperatures and this orange line at the top
10:54these are our maximum temperatures that we maximum mean temperatures that we've seen across the 91 to
11:002020 record so if we take a look at spring so far beginning of March mean temperatures were on the rise
11:11right at the start of March we took a little bit of a dip but on the whole as we've had through the
11:16end of March most of April temperatures have been on the rise day by day not unusual to see an upward
11:21trend obviously as we get closer to summer but notice that we have been very high it's mostly
11:28if we follow this down beginning of April where we started to see these very high mean temperatures so
11:33towards the maximum compared to average not only that we're pretty much bang on the line for kind of
11:40middle part of April and as we head as we begin May as well I wouldn't be surprised it's a little bit
11:45covered but I wouldn't be surprised if we touch above that line as well so temperatures are very warm for the
11:50time of year average temperatures day by day not only this but our maximum temperatures compared to
11:57average once again a very similar trend we saw that very warm start at the beginning of March a slight dip
12:02and then temperatures have been increasing day by day and once again here's this orange line here we
12:08have surpassed some of those maximum temperatures for spring obviously seeing the warmest start to spring so
12:13far on record at the beginning of May so if we continue like this in terms of temperatures there is the potential
12:21for it to be the warmest spring on record but there's still a few weeks away so don't quote me on that
12:29another thing to note obviously it's been really warm and yes it's because it's been very dry as well look how dark
12:36this chart is obviously still yes few weeks away to the end of meteorological spring but at this time
12:43of year you'd normally expect around 72% of the average rainfall and many areas are kind of closer to
12:50the 30% mark so still very very low even for this time in spring now the odd area mainly in the there's
13:00been quite localized area in kind of northwest um scotland western parts of uh northern ireland
13:06southwest wales a very far southwest of uh cornwall there uh a bit closer to where we would normally
13:12expect for this time of year but most of the country has still been very very dry for the time of year
13:18and of course the reason for that is it's been quite sunny we've seen quite a lot of sunshine so far
13:25in uh in spring particularly already across east anglia parts of lincolnshire central areas many
13:32areas now above the average um above the average sunshine hours so far this spring in fact what i
13:40can tell you is last spring i don't know if you remember we're going to take a quick look at it in
13:44a minute uh in a minute it was very wet we're having a very different spring spring compared to last uh
13:51compared to last year so in terms of sunshine hours across the uk we've seen 425.3 hours of sunshine
13:59that's 93 of the average for the uk as a whole spring last year we only had 377.4 hours that's 83
14:09of the average so already this uh so far in spring we've had more sunshine so it's already on track to
14:15be sunnier than last year but is it going to be the sunniest overall remains to be seen uh not only
14:22that if i just take us back to our um our um rainfall map here uh we've only seen about 35 percent
14:32overall in the uk of average rainfall amounts that equivalates to a 78.7 millimeters whereas last year
14:40it was very wet if i show you this one here a very different chart obviously this takes on spring
14:48overall last year whereas we haven't quite finished spring yet but we can see many more blues on this
14:54chart in fact last year we had 132 percent of average rainfall amounts that that once again is a
15:01301.7 millimeters of rainfall so very very wet last spring a very different spring to the spring
15:09we're having so far and that was because there wasn't quite as much sunshine there wasn't quite
15:15as much dry weather we did have some dry periods uh it was one of the warmest springs as well
15:21but we had storm kathleen it was the 11th storm around the beginning of april so still quite late in
15:28the season that brought um quite a lot of rainfall across many areas so yeah around 132 for the uk as a
15:35whole uh in terms of rainfall so just comparing last year to this year is very interesting we've
15:43had very different seasons it's not going to be uncommon now that we start to see quite a
15:48variability in our seasons as a result of our changing climate um but this year the reason why
15:55it's been so dry it's been so sunny is because of those blocking highs we're still under the influence
16:01of the blocking high we were last week and we are this week and it's all because of what i said at
16:05the beginning that amplified jet creating those blocking patterns a very different pattern last
16:11year we had more of a zonal pattern our jet stream slightly further south that allowed areas of low
16:17pressure to swing past bringing us more rainfall so it's a very different setup if we compare it to last
16:22year so it is a little bit uncommon to have a blocking high for this long as i say it's been with us
16:29uh there or thereabouts since around the end of february but we did have a similar setup back in 2020
16:38a very memorable spring and summer because we were all stuck inside and we didn't have much else to
16:44talk about so we focused on the weather um so i hate to take you back to that dark time but i'm just
16:50going to talk about it for a little bit of course spring 2020 right in the middle of the um all right
16:55the it's probably more the start of the uh the covid lockdown but we had a very once again we had a
17:02blocking high pattern so very dry spring and a very sunny spring in fact it was the sunniest spring on
17:09record since records began in 1919 we actually had more sunshine than most summers i think prior to this
17:17there was only about three summers where we had more sunshine so for spring on its own very sunny even
17:23um surpassing some summers that we've previous had it was the eighth warmest for the uk eighth
17:30warmest spring fifth if you just include england and wales and it was the fifth driest in the uk
17:36so we're seeing a very similar setup to what we had in 2020 there's still a few more weeks of spring but
17:45if we carry on the way that we are um if i just get up this for example was it almost four weeks left
17:53to go three and a half ish so if we carry on the way that we are there's a chance we could see the
17:59warmest potentially the driest potentially the sunniest so it is definitely one to watch but
18:05is the high pressure sticking around or is there more of a chance of rain um well at the moment i've got
18:12to say there's very little signal of rainfall um if we take a look at actually i'm going to move on to
18:19this first you should be pretty familiar with this already if you're quite familiar with our videos
18:25these red colors indicating high pressure most likely across the uk if we saw more blues here's
18:31the key at the bottom blues indicates low pressure dominating our weather across the uk and green is kind
18:37of unbiased conditions so we're kind of looking out for the reds and the blues these are our most recent
18:43model runs and as we move our way further down these are later model runs and this is over the next
18:48two weeks so as we move our way along this is moving further into the future and what can we see
18:53lots of reds it looks very similar to my dress lots of reds on its way and even these percentage
19:00chances still very high even as we get to the middle of may we're still looking around 60 to 70
19:05percent so a good strong signal signal across all our models that high pressure is sticking around
19:12more dry weather potentially more sunshine
19:17not only this i thought i'd also take a look around where our air is coming from similar colors
19:23but they show slightly different things so this time our red colors are indicating a southerly flow
19:28air coming up from the south tends to be warmer and blue colors more of a northerly flow
19:35so we can see green at the moment over the next week or so that's that's kind of neither kind of
19:41southerly or northerly we've just got that high pressure blocked pattern sticking around
19:46we see more of the blue colors as we head towards middle part of may still fairly low percentages so
19:52a good chance it could change but we've seen similar patterns as we work our way down to older model runs
19:57but something that's fairly new as we head um this is from around the 16th of may with our most recent
20:04model runs there's an indication of these more red colors so more southerly flow so there's an a slight
20:09indication there that we'll see more of our weather coming up from the south we tend to see warmer plumes
20:14at this time of year so a chance that we could start to see some quite warm temperatures so once again if this
20:20comes off a chance still already us being above that average line and continuing still as we head into
20:27may so there are further into may so there are indications that high pressure sticking around
20:33the chance we could see some more warmer air coming up from the south and even if high pressure sits on
20:38its own across the country as i've already mentioned that air moving down subsidence taking place
20:44things getting drier things getting warmer um but if we do take a quick look further ahead i'm not
20:51going to go in too much detail because tomorrow what do we have we have our 10 day trend so i don't want
20:56to step it's alex burkehill this week so i don't want to step on any toes and also a chance it could change
21:02um so i just wanted to take a look we had
21:07um so here we are you can see it here this is for a week's time so tuesday the 13th still high
21:17pressure or a good chance of high pressure uh dominating our weather if we take a look at this
21:22stack probability chart as a whole once again those kind of red orange yellowy colors indicating high
21:28pressure of some sort dominating our weather and we can see it's pretty much red through and through any
21:33of these bluer colors indicating some kind of lower pressures very low on the probability scale so it
21:39does look like over the next couple of weeks that takes us up to the 19th of may high pressure dominating
21:45what that will look like potentially in a week's time something like this as we saw that high
21:49pressure is building back in from the northwest so it could just bring in once again some slightly
21:54cooler temperatures across eastern areas a chance that could we could see a few showers just drifting in
21:59from the north sea but overall high pressure dominating giving us largely settled conditions
22:04and we can see kind of rainfall anomalies here as well if we move over into europe but we can see for
22:10the uk there's not really anything there so dry and it's fairly similar even as we head into the weekend
22:17so this is for next saturday so the 17th once again the high pressure still sat nicely to the northwest
22:25still bringing in that kind of uh northeasterly flow so still a chance could be a little bit
22:29cooler across eastern areas uh but eventually we'll start to see that if if the models are correct
22:35we'll start to see that swing around if it pushes more to the northwest we get a bit more of a
22:39southerly flow kind of like what we're going to see over the weekend and perhaps a kind of warmer plume
22:45moving back through but obviously that also brings the risk of showers potentially some thunderstorms as
22:49we can see on sunday so yes high pressure is sticking around if we if we kind of stick on track
22:55to what we've seen so far there is the potential for spring potentially breaking some records but
23:02still a few weeks to go and obviously as i've already mentioned yes the warm sunshine is very nice
23:07still need to be very careful it's time of year if you're heading out for a barbecue watch for fires
23:11if you're heading out to the sea the sea temperatures are still fairly chilly so keep an eye out for those
23:15so yes the high pressure the warm settled weather is very nice i'm a big fan of it myself but we do
23:21need to take be aware of the environmental impacts and the potential health impacts it can bring to
23:27you so that's what it's looking like we'll have to see over the next few weeks as to what actually
23:33happens but as i say there's a very strong signal for high pressure sticking around um so i think
23:40that is pretty much everything i wanted to speak about so far make sure i haven't missed anything
23:48but yes oh but i did forget to mention this so i'll just mention it briefly but we've already
23:53spoken about temperatures over the next coming weeks but particularly over the next few days
23:58temperatures are on the up this is temperatures compared to average so the anomaly so we can see from
24:03thursday many areas kind of around about average those eastern areas feeling a little bit cooler
24:08in that northeasterly breeze things starting to warm up across the south across scotland
24:13and then we start to see those temperatures increasing a bit more widespread widespreadly i
24:18don't think that's a word but as we head into saturday some areas you can see eastern parts of
24:24scotland northeastern parts of england kind of a good 8 to 10 degrees above average so starting to see
24:28that warmer weather return once again but otherwise i'm going to stop there if i didn't cover anything
24:35that you wanted me to or if you have a few more questions about what we've spoken about so far
24:39make sure to drop them in the comments as already mentioned we've got the weather studio live this
24:44friday it'll be me and alex burkhill so i'll take a look at those before friday and we'll try and drop
24:49some of the some of the questions in if you have any into our weather studio live we're across all
24:54social media channels we're on instagram tick tock we're even on spotify and whatsapp there's no escape from
25:01our content so make sure you you follow or subscribe to all of those as well and yes make sure to tune
25:07in for our weather studio live friday at 12 15 but even if you miss it you can still watch it even if
25:12it's not live anymore but thank you so much for joining me make sure if you haven't already to give
25:17this video a like and if you're not already make sure to give it a subscribe enjoy the sunny weather while
25:23it's here and i'll see you i'll see you again very shortly bye