This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 23/04/2025. Some rain but lots of dry weather over the weekend. Then plenty of uncertainty but a chance of some warm weather. Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Honor Criswick.
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– Deep dive in-depth forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt
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– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello there. This week's 10-day trend takes us into the middle of spring and it's not uncommon at this time of year that we do tend to see a bit more unpredictability.
00:09There's fewer strong drivers impacting the weather and we tend to get a weaker, more wavy jet stream, a little bit like the one behind me.
00:17So taking a look at the bigger picture then, this is to end on Wednesday, we do have this system across the far southeast that brought in some clouds and rain this morning across these areas,
00:26but eventually drifts its way eastwards overnight and eases away any rain.
00:31But low pressure into the Atlantic, it is dragging in some frontal systems at times across Northern Ireland and particularly on Friday, so likely to see some persistent outbreaks of rain then.
00:39And as we head through the weekend, it's not uncommon to see frontal systems clip their way into the west, but they don't tend to move too far inland, high pressure eventually building in the east.
00:49So despite some rain moving through at times, there's also going to be lots of dry and bright weather, particularly across eastern areas.
00:56Before we talk about that though, let's move our way into Thursday.
00:59So it's going to be quite a cloudy start, particularly around North Sea coast.
01:03We've got a northeasterly wind direction here, so dragging in some cloud and moisture in from the North Sea, where it could linger for a time before it eventually burns back towards coasts.
01:13Also some fog in places, once again clearing quite readily through the course of the morning.
01:17And we'll see a mix of sunny spells and cloud, quite a lot of cloud across the far south, the best of the brightness towards the west of Scotland, northern parts of England.
01:27But thicker clouds starting to edge its way into parts of Northern Ireland, starting to turn a little bit blustery here too along western coast before we eventually see some rain move through later on.
01:36But where you catch the sunnier weather, it is going to feel warm and pleasant for many of us.
01:41Highs of 17, possibly 18 degrees across the far south.
01:44But notice it is that little bit cooler around those North Sea coasts with that wind direction just making things feel a little bit cooler here.
01:52Now I want you to keep an eye on this area of rain across the west here.
01:55This is Thursday afternoon.
01:57If we move through to Friday morning, notice it's not really moved that far inland.
02:01It turns into more of a waving feature and stalls the frontal system.
02:05And that just means across Northern Ireland on Friday, it's going to be quite a wet day.
02:09Persistent outbreaks of rain.
02:11There's a good chance we could see perhaps 50 millimetres or more across the Maughan Mountains.
02:16But any hilly areas with a southerly flow, most of the rain, most of the persistent and heavy outbreaks of rain will be across southern upslopes.
02:24And generally we could see between 20 to 30 millimetres, possibly 30 to 40 millimetres across high ground.
02:32So quite a wet day on offer into Friday across Northern Ireland.
02:35So do take care.
02:36There could be quite poor visibility, quite poor driving conditions and quite a lot of surface water around.
02:42So do take care across Northern Ireland on Friday.
02:45Elsewhere though, however, this system stays fairly, it's fairly to the west.
02:49It might just start to edge into western parts of Scotland.
02:52Later on, just clipping into the very far west of Wales, parts of the southwest.
02:57But elsewhere, it's going to be another dry day to come.
03:00But probably quite a lot of cloud around, though it should stay fairly dry.
03:04And temperatures once again, highs of 16, 17 degrees Celsius.
03:09Still a little bit cooler across those North Sea coasts, but a degree or two higher compared to Thursday.
03:13So feeling a little bit better here and remaining largely dry.
03:17Now, later Friday into Saturday, the beginning of the weekend, we still have this system slowly edging its way eastwards.
03:25But it becomes quite a weakening feature as it pushes up against the high pressure.
03:29So some rain to start with on Saturday, particularly in the west, but turning more showery in nature through the course of the day.
03:36And brightening up in the west as it moves through too.
03:38Much better day on offer across Northern Ireland as we head through into Saturday.
03:42Much drier and brighter, but low pressure still never too far away, pushing its way through as we head later into Saturday through into Sunday.
03:51So turning wetter, particularly across the northwest.
03:53And a few more isobars on the chart too, so it's starting to turn a little bit windier here as well.
03:58But away from the west, once again across the south and southeast, another fairly dry day with some brighter interludes.
04:04So overall, the weekend doesn't look too bad for many of us.
04:06Some rain yesterday to start, turning more showery, so plenty of bright and sunny spells in between.
04:11Sunshine could be hazy at times, that's just with a build of higher cloud.
04:15They're remaining largely dry.
04:16Away from the northwest on Sunday though, turning wet and windy here.
04:20Now of course on Sunday we also have the London Marathon and it's fairly good conditions as well for running.
04:26There could be some fog clearing through the morning, but otherwise it should stay dry.
04:30Plenty of sunny spells.
04:31It is going to be feeling rather warm though across the southeast, London in particular.
04:35So some extra water needed and the very best of luck if you are taking part.
04:39Now as we finish off the weekend, head into the new working week, that's when we start to get a little bit more uncertainty into the forecast.
04:49It's almost a battleground really between low pressure out into the Atlantic and then high pressure out to the east.
04:56But it's very dependent on whereabouts this high pressure sits, how long it lasts, which will coincide with the weather that we see next week.
05:04So taking a look at the pressure trend over the next couple of weeks, at first glance it actually looks quite positive.
05:10Lots of red colours indicating high pressure dominating the weather.
05:13But actually if we take a closer look, particularly at the latest model run, which is the row at the top, these are previous model runs as we move our way down.
05:21Notice those colours turning a little bit paler, more of a paler red and the percentages are starting to lower too.
05:27And that's just indicating that there are some uncertainties with regards to the synoptic pattern as we head into the beginning of May in particular.
05:37So I'm going to talk through some of these uncertainties now.
05:40So as always at the Met Office, we run our model quite a few times, slightly changing the initial conditions each time to kind of indicate the potential weather conditions we could see.
05:49Unfortunately, as we head into next week, quite a few of those different regimes are slowing slightly different patterns and thus quite a big change in our weather.
05:58So I'm going to talk you through some of those.
05:59So here's Member 36, for example.
06:01So only a 20% chance still that this situation could take place.
06:05And this keeps the area of high pressure that I showed you as we head into Monday, it keeps it to the east.
06:10And that does mean we drag in a southerly flow.
06:12So it's going to be largely settled, lots of dry weather around, probably some sunny spells.
06:16And it's going to bring in some very warm temperatures, particularly across the far south and southeast.
06:21So we could potentially get into the high 20s here if this solution occurred.
06:26Then we take a look at Member 7.
06:28Still, once again, only a 30% chance of this taking place.
06:31And once again, we still have high pressure just situated out to the east here.
06:35But it pushes its way further east, allowing slightly more unsettled conditions to move through.
06:40So Member 7 is something more changeable, not quite as warm.
06:43Average temperatures more or less across much of the country and potentially some more cloud and some showery outbreaks.
06:50So already between the two, there's quite different setups here.
06:54Then if we take a look at Member 5, once again, high pressure largely dominating, shifting its way to the east, allowing high pressure to build to the south.
07:01So once again, lots of fine conditions.
07:03But if we notice a slight change in our wind direction, more to a southwesterly, and this could bring up a warm plume, potentially some quite heavy showers across the far southwest, perhaps even turning quite thundery.
07:14So once again, quite a different setup, depending on whereabouts that high pressure is going to sit.
07:1840% chance of this one occurring.
07:20And then we move over to Member 8, which is quite different if you compare it to the first three.
07:25Quite variable conditions, more zonal flow, so more of our weather coming in from the west, some more cloud, more showers, more frontal systems moving through.
07:33And once again, fairly average temperatures.
07:35So you can see already, it really depends whereabouts that high pressure is going to sit, how quickly it's going to last.
07:41It could potentially break down quite quickly.
07:43And then we see something like Member 8, so more of a zonal pattern.
07:45So that really leads us into the uncertainty into next week.
07:50And you can see already from this chart here, from Monday onwards, the certainty levels really plummet.
07:57So it's really a big question mark as to the kind of weather we can see next week, depending on whereabouts that high pressure will sit.
08:03As I mentioned at the beginning, that's not totally uncommon for this time of year.
08:07This time in spring, we do tend to get a bit more of an unpredictable pattern.
08:11Now, one thing I just want to finish on is temperatures.
08:14Obviously, just from talking through some of those regimes, we could potentially see some quite warm weather as we head into May,
08:20particularly across the far south and southeast, could potentially reach the high 20s here.
08:25But as we've already worked through, it really does depend whereabouts that high pressure sits.
08:29But what we can notice, if we follow this red line, this is average for the time of year.
08:34And as we move further into the future, further into May, notice these box and whisker plots, they're called.
08:39They do start to widen as we head further into the 10-day period.
08:44And that's just showing more uncertainty as we head through the period.
08:48Obviously, temperatures really depending on what happens over the next few days.
08:52But the one thing we can notice is that even though these box do become wider, there's more spread, they do tend to sit above the average line.
08:59So temperatures around average, if not just above, and that's the same for northern areas and also southern areas,
09:05and also for overnight temperatures too, shown in the box and whisker plots in the blue.
09:09So there's no signal for anything extremely hot or extremely cold, potentially some warmer air moving through the south.
09:16But otherwise, it looks like temperatures will be around average, if not a touch above.
09:20But it does very much depend on what happens next week.
09:23And of course, if you're subscribed, then you won't miss any updates.
09:26And we can keep you informed on the weather here.
09:28That's it from me.
09:29Bye-bye.