This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days, dated 22/11/2023
It’s turning colder this week but there’s not much snow in the forecast and then high pressure will bring us a longer spell of drier weather next week although exactly where it sits will determine how cold the weather turns.
Bringing you this 10 day trend is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
It’s turning colder this week but there’s not much snow in the forecast and then high pressure will bring us a longer spell of drier weather next week although exactly where it sits will determine how cold the weather turns.
Bringing you this 10 day trend is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 This 10 day trend takes us into meteorological winter, a time when the 10 day trend gets
00:05 a little more scrutiny than usual.
00:07 If you are a snow enthusiast, a snowmantic like me, there's not a lot to get excited
00:13 about, but there's just enough to keep things interesting.
00:16 Now, I always think the weather is interesting, of course, and so the setup at the moment
00:20 is fascinating with quite a strong jet stream just to the north of the UK and around the
00:26 south of it in this area, we have high pressure, which is controlling our weather for the most
00:31 part for the next day or so, keeping things mostly dry, certainly across the south.
00:35 Further north, though, we have weather fronts and low pressure being pushed along by that
00:39 jet stream.
00:40 And then over the next few days, notice how the jet changes in orientation.
00:44 So by the time we get to the weekend, it's no longer sitting to the north.
00:47 It's sitting to the east and in a 90 degree switch around that will have an impact on
00:52 the winds and will allow things to turn colder.
00:56 We've still got high pressure controlling things, trying to move in from the west.
01:01 But as I say, that change of orientation, if we rewind the clock, will allow things
01:06 to turn a little colder.
01:07 So we start off generally on the warm side of the jet with quite mild air across the
01:12 country.
01:13 Run through that sequence, however, and you'll notice the colder air drifting south, particularly
01:17 noticeable by the time we get to Friday morning.
01:20 And then we're kind of east west with our orientation for the weekend, the colder air
01:26 maybe lingering in the east, the milder air trying to push in once more from the west.
01:31 So we are going to see a switch around of 90 degrees over the next four or five days.
01:36 And you'll notice that colder air arriving on Thursday across the north.
01:40 Cold fronts, as you might imagine, is introducing it.
01:43 So temperatures in the north, single figures on Thursday.
01:46 Not much of a freezing in Shetland with some snow showers possible.
01:50 Further south, we're a long way from that.
01:53 Still 12, maybe 13 degrees Celsius.
01:55 But the cold front will push further south and introduce the colder air for most of us.
02:02 Some uncertainty about whether it'll clear from the southwest, but certainly extensive
02:06 frost across northern Britain on Friday morning.
02:08 And by the time we get to Friday afternoon, most places in that colder air with single
02:13 figure temperatures.
02:14 And when you add on the wind, well, it will feel colder still, particularly across that
02:20 northeastern corner where there will be some snow showers coming in over the hills.
02:24 But even at low levels, there could be some snow for a time with that colder air.
02:29 Elsewhere, though, not expecting any sleet or snow, except maybe over the tops of the
02:33 hills across northern England.
02:36 Those strong winds where the ice bars are squeezing together have just edged out into
02:40 the North Sea by the time we get into Saturday and that high pressure toppling in behind
02:45 will bring most of us, I think, a fine day on Saturday.
02:48 Yes, a chilly start, but generally dry and bright.
02:52 It's what happens during the second half of the weekend that's still open to quite a bit
02:56 of doubt.
02:57 And that's all from this little area of low pressure.
03:00 Looks innocuous enough and it's just going to drift its way northwards during Saturday,
03:04 but then likely to drift south during the course of Sunday, pushing between the areas
03:12 of high pressure.
03:13 But there's quite a bit of uncertainty about exactly how it does that and how much wet
03:18 weather it brings and exactly where it's going to sit on Sunday.
03:22 And the reason for that is just how it interacts with the jet stream.
03:26 So let's take a look at that, because the jet's doing something a little strange.
03:30 We've already seen it's diving to the east of the UK by the time we get into the weekend.
03:35 But out in the Atlantic, it's almost splitting in two with one arm of it going to the north
03:41 and developing here.
03:43 We have a cutoff low pressure.
03:46 So that's what's going on high up in the atmosphere.
03:47 But it's also then interacting with this low down at the surface.
03:52 And that all moves bodily northwards.
03:54 But the exact interaction with the jet will determine how and where this low pressure
03:59 heads its way southwards towards the UK on Sunday.
04:03 Some computer models have it drifting further west.
04:06 Some have it moving further east.
04:08 And that will play quite a big part into the type of weather we see on Sunday.
04:11 Either way, it looks like Scotland will see some cloud and rain from this weather system.
04:15 But elsewhere, quite a bit of uncertainty about Sunday, more so than usual.
04:19 So you do have plans this weekend.
04:21 Do keep up to date with the forecast.
04:24 An example of that uncertainty shown here.
04:27 This is from the European model.
04:30 These are the postage stamps where we run the model many, many times, 50 times, in fact,
04:35 with slightly different starting positions.
04:38 And then you get 50 potential different outcomes.
04:41 And from that, you can work out a probability of different forecasts.
04:44 This is for Sunday.
04:45 I appreciate this is pretty hard to see.
04:47 But if we just zoom in, you can pick out a few of these.
04:51 The colours are basically rainfall.
04:53 So how much rain we'll see throughout Sunday.
04:56 So for 24 hours of Sunday, how much rain we're going to see across the UK.
05:00 This is the control or the main model run.
05:03 And that is taking most of the rain just to the northeast of Scotland.
05:06 But this one, member one, has rain covering most of England, Wales and Northern Ireland,
05:11 whereas member two and member three have a lot of dry weather.
05:14 So just highlighting here that there is a lot of variability.
05:18 It's all to do with that intricate interplay with that cutoff low tied into the jet stream
05:25 and exactly how that low pressure manifests itself on Sunday.
05:29 So a bit more uncertainty than usual for Sunday.
05:31 If you do have plans, stay up to date with the forecast.
05:34 OK, what happens beyond the weekend and into next week?
05:38 Well, as I said, this low could be further east.
05:39 It could be further west.
05:41 But it is likely to drift its way down to the south one way or another and be out of
05:45 the way by Monday.
05:47 But then what follows?
05:49 Not a strong signal.
05:50 Not many ISA bars on the chart.
05:52 We're between highs.
05:53 We're between lows.
05:54 We're going to see a bit of a cull, if you like, on Monday.
05:56 And by this stage, the jet is pretty weak.
05:59 So not driving things along too much.
06:01 And that opens up a bit of uncertainty about how things will progress into next week.
06:06 But it does suggest that we're not expecting anything too lively.
06:11 This is the pressure tendency as we go through next week from all of the main computer models
06:18 merged together when we run the many times.
06:21 Red is high pressure.
06:22 These are the dates going forward along the top.
06:25 Previous model runs down the side here.
06:27 And this is quite a strong signal.
06:28 A lot of red on the chart through next week.
06:31 The high pressure will certainly be close by to the UK.
06:34 That is always likely to bring drier weather.
06:38 So quite a strong signal there.
06:40 But exactly where the high sits will determine just what type of weather we get and indeed
06:45 how warm or how cold the weather gets.
06:49 Now this isn't showing temperature.
06:50 This is still showing pressure from the European model for the whole of the week starting next
06:57 Monday.
06:58 So it's seven days worth averaged over those seven days when you compare the pressure to
07:03 average.
07:04 And it's quite a strong signal here with these mauves and purples.
07:07 The pressure is going to be above average out to the west.
07:11 So higher pressure is likely here.
07:13 When we've got high pressure sitting here, the winds go around high pressure clockwise.
07:18 So around coming down from the north, northwest or the northeast if the high pressure is sitting
07:24 here.
07:25 And that's quite a strong signal that we're going to have high pressure close to the west
07:29 of the UK.
07:30 But again, it's exact.
07:31 Remember, this is averaged over many model runs over many days.
07:36 So there's a lot of averaging going on here, but just gives you that quite strong signal
07:40 that pressure over here in the Atlantic close to the UK is going to be higher, which would
07:46 bring the winds in from the northwest, northeast or straight from the north.
07:51 Going to show you this now, a Hove Moller plot, because this also shows that that change
07:56 that we're seeing quite nicely.
07:58 Now, this is pretty complicated, but I'm guessing you're this far into the 10 day trend.
08:02 You're interested in this kind of stuff, right?
08:04 So these are the dates along this axis here going back in time from this black line.
08:10 This is where we are now going back in time into October.
08:14 And anything below this line here is going forward in time.
08:19 Don't worry too much about the details, but all these blobs moving in this diagonal motion
08:24 like that are indicative of mobile weather patterns.
08:27 And that's what we've seen, of course, for the past several weeks.
08:31 Low pressure systems coming in.
08:32 Our weather's been pretty active, pretty mobile.
08:34 We've seen lots of wet and windy weather.
08:36 We all know about that.
08:37 But we are now starting to see a change.
08:40 We're losing that mobility.
08:42 We're moving that fluidity in the diagram.
08:44 We're seeing these blobs.
08:45 This is a blocking weather pattern.
08:47 And going forward in time, that's what we're likely to see.
08:50 This is basically indicating high pressure is likely to sit to the west of the UK.
08:55 So this is where the UK is.
08:56 That's the Greenwich Meridian here.
08:58 This is west and this is east.
09:00 So we're in here right now going forward in time, going down here.
09:05 The high pressure is still close to the UK, but there are signs that it kind of resets
09:09 itself and does drift a little bit further west.
09:13 So the exact position of the high, say, still a bit uncertain.
09:16 But generally speaking, we'll see the breeze coming in, the winds coming in from the north,
09:21 be it northwest, be it northeast.
09:23 That's the big question.
09:25 Now let's try and put a little bit more detail on that.
09:27 This is, again, the European model picture for Tuesday of next week.
09:31 It's got a lot of cold air up to the northwest, but even colder air up to the northeast, as
09:36 you'd expect at the end of November.
09:39 We're in between.
09:40 We're in a slightly milder zone as a weather front tries to push in.
09:44 A weak weather front will bring perhaps temporarily milder condition through the early part of
09:49 next week.
09:50 What the European model wants to do, if you fast forward to Wednesday, is build this area
09:54 of high pressure.
09:55 And that's what we saw earlier with that pressure anomaly.
09:57 Higher pressure than usual out here, keeping the very cold air across Scandinavia, just
10:02 keeping things on the cool side for us with a northwesterly wind.
10:06 But high pressure generally keeping things drier than average.
10:10 Other models are not completely in agreement.
10:13 If we take a look at the American model, and this has actually quite a strong air of low
10:17 pressure down to the southwest for Tuesday.
10:19 And that's actually tied in to that low that we saw on Sunday.
10:23 Remember, we talked about the complications, the uncertainty around that as it engages
10:28 with the jet.
10:30 The American model is doing something completely different with that low.
10:32 It actually has quite a strong air of low pressure down to the southwest.
10:35 That keeps this air of high pressure further out to the west.
10:40 And in the American model space, if you like, it does allow the colder air to come in from
10:46 the near continent.
10:47 Now, at the moment, we don't think this is the most likely scenario that European model
10:52 is more likely to win out.
10:54 So most likely as we go through next week with high pressure sitting to the west of
10:58 the UK, we are likely to see drier than average conditions and certainly a lot drier than
11:03 recently.
11:04 We're going to see too many low pressures whizzing in, the jet streams weakened, remember.
11:08 So drier than recently, chilly with the winds generally coming in from the north or the
11:13 northwest.
11:14 How cold it gets, well, that's something to keep a close eye on and something that we
11:18 will obviously be tracking and keeping you up to date.
11:22 Best way to stay up to date, of course, is to follow us on social media and make sure
11:27 you subscribe to our YouTube channel.
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