10 Day Trend 03/01/2024 – Much drier and calmer - Met Office Weather Forecast
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days, dated 03/01/2024.
After a long period of wet and windy weather it’s all calming down we go into the weekend. Much drier, calmer and colder weather is on the way with the return of frost and thick fog patches.
Bringing you this 10 day trend is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
After a long period of wet and windy weather it’s all calming down we go into the weekend. Much drier, calmer and colder weather is on the way with the return of frost and thick fog patches.
Bringing you this 10 day trend is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 It's the first 10 day trend of 2024 and it's likely to bring a big shift in our weather
00:06 patterns.
00:07 Not a fan of the wet and the windy?
00:09 Well, I have some good news.
00:11 Let's start with the jet stream because it is south shifted as it has been for most of
00:16 the autumn and winter so far.
00:18 And when the jet stream is further south, it takes low pressure systems across the UK,
00:23 hence why it's been so wet and windy.
00:25 Storm Henk is exiting, bringing some pretty wet and windy weather across the northwest
00:29 of the mainland of Europe.
00:30 Low pressure is still dominating, but it's not this one we need to keep a close eye on.
00:34 This little feature out in the Atlantic, complicated interactions with the jet stream, just spinning
00:40 that up into an area of low pressure that is going to bring a spell of wet weather across
00:44 parts of the south on Thursday, particularly Thursday night.
00:48 But by the time we get to Friday, notice the shift.
00:50 The jet stream is no longer down here and going like that.
00:53 It's shifted by 90 degrees and that process will continue.
00:58 What's driving that is out in the central and western Atlantic.
01:02 A dip in the jet here is spinning up a number of areas of low pressure and they're buckling
01:07 the jet stream in turn, creating what's called warm advection in the eastern side of the
01:14 Atlantic that is pushing the jet stream further north.
01:17 So by the time we get to the second half of the weekend, the jet is way up to the north
01:22 of the UK instead of being down here.
01:24 And that shift has mean at the surface, the pressure will change from low to high.
01:31 And this high is likely to stick around for quite some time before it builds in.
01:37 Now, we do have to watch that low pressure that's developing during the next 24 hours.
01:42 Still some uncertainty about exactly how it interacts with the jet and so how far north,
01:46 how far south this rain gets.
01:48 But it is going to bring some heavy rain.
01:50 And because it has been so very wet, that is likely to cause some further problems.
01:55 So we do have a Met Office yellow warning in place.
01:57 But as I said, a bit of uncertainty about exactly how far north, how far south that
02:01 rain is from that low pressure system.
02:04 That low though will be scooting away on Thursday nights, clearing on Friday morning.
02:08 Then this low kind of is still in control of our weather during Friday, generating some
02:13 showers.
02:14 But as we head into the weekend, high pressure building to the south, high pressure building
02:17 to the north, kind of squeezing this low and wringing out this weather front and generating
02:23 the breeze coming in from the north.
02:26 And so hence why it will also be turning a little chillier.
02:29 There'll still be a bit of life left in this weather front, though it could well be a wet
02:32 start over eastern Scotland on Saturday.
02:35 But it should be fizzling away.
02:37 A northerly breeze may generate a few showers coming down into the east of Northern Ireland
02:41 and West Wales.
02:42 But for many, it does look like turning a lot drier through the weekend with some weak
02:48 winter sunshine, but also a colder feel with temperatures in single digits.
02:53 Actually, these numbers not far off average for early January, six to eight or nine Celsius,
02:57 but it will feel quite a lot colder than it has done recently.
03:01 And Sunday may well be colder still, temperatures struggling to get much above four or five
03:06 degrees Celsius.
03:08 And by then we could start to see a breeze picking up coming in from the North Sea, certainly
03:13 across the southern parts of the eastern side of England.
03:16 That will bring something of a chill, particularly the winds pick up along the south coast as
03:20 well.
03:21 These are the feels like temperatures, so feeling barely above freezing.
03:25 So again, that is nothing exceptional for the time of year, but very noticeable because
03:30 although it has been very wet and windy, it has also been fairly mild.
03:33 So that will be, I say, a change we'll notice to colder conditions, particularly if you're
03:39 facing that wind.
03:41 High pressure then is likely to build in through the weekend.
03:44 How long will it last?
03:45 Well, certainly likely to stick around through Monday and Tuesday.
03:48 The exact position of the high will dictate where we see the winds.
03:53 Notice the isobars quite close together across the south, so could be quite a brisk and therefore
03:58 cold wind along parts of the south coast for Monday and Tuesday.
04:03 Temperature trends, yes, this high pressure is likely to stick around through most of
04:06 next week, actually.
04:08 All computer models seem to be signalling that.
04:11 This is the pressure trends, looking at all the computer models with a strong red element
04:17 there through the middle and latter part of next week.
04:21 These are the previous computer model runs going along here.
04:23 So that's a very strong signal, but high pressure will dominate our weather throughout next
04:29 week.
04:30 The exact position will dictate where our winds are coming from and so exactly how chilly
04:35 it gets.
04:36 But overall, with high pressure in control, that means the air is sinking through that
04:40 high and likely to bring a lot of dry weather.
04:43 So yes, it is going to turn a bit colder, but that doesn't necessarily mean there's
04:48 going to be much in the way of precipitation.
04:50 Not a lot of snow in the forecast for sure.
04:53 With high pressure sitting like this, we could see that easterly breeze maintained along
04:58 the south coast.
04:59 This is the picture that ECMWF, the European model, is generating for Wednesday.
05:04 Fast forward to Thursday and not much has changed.
05:07 As I say, a lot of the computer models are agreeing with this setup that high pressure
05:11 will be sitting to the north of the UK for much of next week.
05:16 Again, acting like a lid on the atmosphere.
05:19 So keeping things very dry, but also trapping the colder air in.
05:23 These are the projections, the chance of temperatures being four degrees below average as we go
05:31 through next week.
05:32 Notice on here quite a strong signal that the southwestern quarter of the UK is the
05:38 area most likely to see those temperatures below by four degrees, some 60% to 80% chance.
05:44 So with that winds coming in from the south, that's where we're likely to feel the coldest.
05:49 But I think everywhere will be generally a lot colder than it has been as we go through
05:53 next week.
05:54 What about any precipitation?
05:56 Well, that's going to be hard to find.
05:59 Again, signaling perhaps with the winds coming through the English Channel, we could see
06:02 a few showers generated close to the southwest and also perhaps around the high pressure,
06:07 we could see a few showers coming into parts of eastern England.
06:11 But the chance of just one millimetre of rain, pretty small in the projections going forward.
06:17 So a lot of dry weather through next week.
06:19 By Friday, notice a greater signal for some wetter weather or higher chance of some wetter
06:24 weather coming in across the far north.
06:26 But that's really a long way off for much of next week.
06:29 As I say, we're looking at high pressure bringing a lot of dry weather around.
06:34 It is also likely to turn colder.
06:36 Nothing exceptional, but we'll see frosts returning.
06:39 Nothing unusual about that in January.
06:42 But also with the winds falling light, particularly close to the centre of that high across central
06:47 and northern Britain, because it's been so wet, there's a lot of moisture around that
06:51 combination of light winds, colder nights and moisture may well bring some foggy conditions
06:57 and some stubborn fog patches.
06:59 So that's something to keep an eye out for as well.
07:02 So the weather is on the change as we go through the next few days.
07:07 Warning in place for Thursday, however, keep up to date with all the weather warnings through
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