10 Day Trend 17/01/2024 – Turning milder but also wet and windy - Met Office Weather Forecast
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days, dated 17/01/2024.
After a very cold week with some significant snow in the north, there is the potential for some stormy weather during the weekend. Temperatures will rise as well with next week looking milder with more unsettled weather towards the north.
Bringing you this 10 day trend is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
After a very cold week with some significant snow in the north, there is the potential for some stormy weather during the weekend. Temperatures will rise as well with next week looking milder with more unsettled weather towards the north.
Bringing you this 10 day trend is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Hello, this week's 10-day trend could be another juicy one, with the cold wintry weather we
00:05 have at the moment giving away to something wetter, windier, but also milder too.
00:10 At the moment we do have cold air across the UK and it's this cold air that's led to some
00:14 significant snow across northern parts, further heavy snow showers in the north, particularly
00:19 northern Scotland as we go into Thursday.
00:21 We do have an amber warning out currently.
00:24 Other snow showers perhaps skirting around some areas, so further snow and ice warnings
00:28 to come through the next few days, but on Friday there's the potential for some more
00:32 persistent outbreaks of snow affecting particularly northern parts of Scotland, so another warning
00:36 in place there.
00:37 Further south though, lots of fine weather to come through the next few days and in fact
00:41 a brief ridge of high pressure building as we go through Friday.
00:44 So yes, it is still going to be cold, but looking largely dry.
00:48 What happens thereafter, and well to understand that better, is worth having a look at what
00:52 is going on right now.
00:54 On the other side of the Atlantic, we have a huge temperature contrast here.
00:57 Very cold weather across northern parts of the US and across Canada, temperatures many
01:02 degrees below average and it's this huge temperature contrast that is making a very strong jet
01:08 stream.
01:09 That strong jet stream is going to push its way eastwards across the Atlantic as we go
01:13 through the end of the week and it is then going to drive a deep area of low pressure
01:18 towards the UK as we go through the weekend and particularly on Sunday.
01:22 Ahead of that on Saturday, we will see some rain pushing its way southeastwards and wind
01:26 strengthening but it is on Sunday where we're likely to see the wettest and the windiest
01:32 weather, particularly towards northern and western parts.
01:35 That's where we're most likely to see the greatest risk of disruption.
01:38 We do already have a wind warning in place.
01:42 As well as the wet and windy weather, the position of this low is going to drag in some
01:46 milder air from the southwest.
01:48 So temperatures are going to go from several degrees below average to several degrees above
01:53 average as we go through the weekend.
01:55 There is some uncertainty about the position of any deep low that comes through this weekend.
01:59 These postage stamps show various members from the Met Office models position of the
02:05 low pressure system that we could see through this weekend.
02:08 Most of them are in general agreement that we are going to see an area of low pressure
02:11 somewhere towards the north northwest of the UK and even though there are some discrepancies
02:16 between them, the vast majority of them do show that we have tightly packed isobars across
02:21 the UK with some very strong winds.
02:23 That being said, some members do actually have the low pressure system just to the northeast
02:29 of the UK and so that could vary a little bit where we're going to see the strongest
02:33 winds and also the heaviest rain.
02:36 Looking at rainfall total quickly for this weekend and here are our 48-hour rainfall
02:40 totals from both the Met Office high res model on the left, ECMWF in the middle and GFS,
02:46 the American model on the right.
02:48 And you can see they're generally in good agreement, particularly ECMWF and the Met
02:51 Office that it is going to be across many northern and western parts where we will see
02:55 a significant amount of rain.
02:57 The high res model highlights that we could see perhaps 140mm over the weekend.
03:02 That perhaps is a little bit overdoing it, but I still think there is the chance we could
03:06 see in excess of 100mm, so very wet indeed.
03:09 Notice the GFS doesn't quite have the highest totals and takes it all a little bit further
03:13 towards the northwest.
03:14 That's because the GFS has that low pressure system a bit further to the northwest of the
03:18 UK as well, so that is to be expected and the resolution of this model isn't quite as
03:23 great.
03:24 Looking at the winds as well because they're perhaps a greater cause for concern and this
03:28 chart shows the probability of gusts in excess of 70 or 69 miles per hour as we go through
03:34 Sunday and it's down western parts of the UK where we have the greatest chance of gusts
03:39 in excess of 70 miles per hour and perhaps some places towards the northeast and that
03:44 suppose depends on the position of any areas of low pressure that comes through.
03:47 But it does look like it is going to be a very windy period indeed.
03:51 As well as the wet and windy period though, I did also mention the fact that it is going
03:55 to turn milder and we can see that by looking at our temperature anomaly charts.
03:59 These charts show our temperature anomaly for maximum temperatures starting off on Friday
04:04 and as you know it's cold at the moment, staying cold on Friday with temperatures a little
04:08 bit below average for the time of year.
04:11 Moving to around average by Saturday but by Sunday maximum temperatures for some places
04:15 will be around 6 to 8 degrees above average.
04:19 It's going to be widely slightly less mild as we go into Monday but in the southeast
04:23 it could be a little bit milder still.
04:25 So a real rise in our temperatures as we go through this weekend and into next week.
04:30 It's a similar picture if we look at minimum temperatures.
04:32 We've had some very cold nights already this week with temperatures into negative double
04:36 figures in some places.
04:37 I don't think Thursday night will be quite as cold as some of the preceding nights but
04:42 nonetheless a fairly widespread frost.
04:44 Frost becoming less of a thing though as we go through the weekend, particularly Sunday
04:48 night that does look fairly mild indeed, especially towards more southern southeastern parts.
04:54 Let's look further ahead though and so yes Sunday a deep area of low pressure somewhere
04:58 towards the northwest of the UK bringing some wet and windy weather.
05:01 That rain is then going to sweep its way southeastwards as we go through the day.
05:06 So we may get off to a very wet start in the southeast on Monday.
05:09 Following in behind the blustery strong winds will continue.
05:12 It won't be quite as windy as on Sunday but a blustery day nonetheless with further outbreaks
05:17 of showery rain for many of us heaviest towards western parts.
05:20 We are then likely to see a brief ridge of high pressure buildings.
05:24 That should quieten down the weather for a little bit of time and that brief ridge of
05:27 high pressure is going to do another thing.
05:29 The next area of low pressure that's waiting out in the Atlantic will hit against that
05:33 ridge and is then likely to not quite track across the UK the same way as the feature
05:38 on Sunday will but actually push a little bit further northwards and so it won't make
05:42 quite as much progress.
05:43 As well as this, this low does look like a more mature feature so I'm not expecting the
05:48 weather to be as unsettled.
05:49 Lighter winds albeit it is still going to be a fairly unsettled picture as we go through
05:54 Tuesday.
05:55 As well as that though whilst we might see a slight dip in our temperatures as we go
05:58 into Monday, I think we are then going to drag in some milder air again as we go through
06:03 Tuesday and beyond through the rest of next week.
06:07 Looking at the pressure anomaly charts from ECMWF for next week and they highlight that
06:11 higher than average pressure is likely across the southern half of the UK with lower than
06:15 average pressure towards the northwest.
06:18 That means then it's likely to be a bit more unsettled towards the northwest because any
06:22 low pressure systems like the one that could come through on Tuesday are likely to hit
06:27 the high pressure affecting more southern areas and be blocked away and so that's why
06:31 it's likely to be more unsettled towards the northwest of the UK so wetter than average
06:35 if we look at the rainfall anomaly.
06:37 Meanwhile towards southern southeastern parts it looks like it will be around if not a little
06:41 bit drier than average as we go through next week.
06:44 If we also look at our temperature charts and as I mentioned before likely to bring
06:48 some milder air in again and so we are going to see temperatures generally fairly above
06:52 average for the time of year as we go through next week.
06:55 That being said there may be some slightly colder interludes and if high pressure does
06:59 dominate particularly across southern parts some night times could be pretty chilly.
07:03 So we may still see some frost but on the whole it does look like our temperatures are
07:07 going to be a little bit above average for the time of year.
07:10 We can also see that if we look at our meteorograms for our capital cities taking Edinburgh for
07:14 example you can see at the moment maximum temperatures shown in red are well below average
07:20 for the time of year but they're going to pick up quite rapidly to above average as
07:23 we go through the weekend and then yes they may dip a little bit before plateauing as
07:27 we go through next week a little bit above average and that's the same for all the capital
07:32 cities and to be honest across the bulk of the UK and it's a similar story if we look
07:35 at our minimum temperatures going from several degrees below to a little bit above as we
07:40 go through next week.
07:41 Now we will have more information as we go through the run up to this weekend particularly
07:45 about any potentially stormy weather so do make sure you stay up to date on our YouTube
07:49 channel.