China Now 10-02: Special episode presented the main stories of 2023
The China Now special program informs about this country's news. The first segment of this special episode presented the main stories of 2023. The second segment Thinkers Forum also looks back to the 2023 by the hand of an specialist. teleSUR
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00:00 Hello, Telesur English presents a new episode of China Now, a Wave Media's production
00:12 that showcases the culture, technology and politics of the Asian giant.
00:16 In this first segment, a special episode of China Current celebrates the Chinese New Year,
00:21 diving into the main stories of the year 2023.
00:24 Let's see.
00:26 China Current is a weekly news talk show from China to the world.
00:30 We cover viral news about China every week and also give you the newest updates on China's
00:35 cutting edge technologies.
00:37 Let's get started.
00:47 Happy Chinese New Year.
00:49 I'm Chris.
00:50 Welcome to this special episode of China Current.
00:52 2023 was a year of rabbit in Chinese calendar, yet as we all have seen, 2023 was nowhere
00:58 near the tamed image of a rabbit.
01:00 There was, or actually is, the upheaval in Palestine, the ongoing war in Ukraine.
01:06 In China, there was an earthquake in northwestern China, the flood and heavy rain in northern
01:10 China.
01:11 Many of these events are still impacting our lives, and others may have become a little
01:15 bit obscured by this moment.
01:18 But either way, there are still factors that shape 2023 as we know it.
01:22 So without further ado, here's your first episode of Looking Back at 2023.
01:27 Top 5 Diplomacy News.
01:31 If you guys remember, last month we covered CIA Director William Burns' claim that United
01:36 States has made progress in rebuilding its intelligence network in China.
01:41 In that interview, Burns also bragged about the United States' strong human intelligence
01:45 capability and its spy operations.
01:49 At that time, as we covered, the Chinese only issued a statement vowing to take all necessary
01:54 measures to resolutely safeguard national security.
01:57 On Chinese social media, the foreign ministry is often joked as the Ministry of Protest.
02:02 The reason?
02:03 Well, they protest all the time, yet barely take any action.
02:07 But not this time.
02:09 On August 11th, Chinese security agency announced that they had unmasked the CIA's spy ring
02:14 still in China's military intelligence.
02:17 According to the report, the suspect was an employee of a Chinese state-owned defense
02:22 corporation.
02:23 As an engineer, he had access to classified information, and the way CIA recruited him
02:28 was like Hollywood.
02:30 Once upon a time, our suspect was studying in Rome, Italy.
02:33 He wasn't rich and there was this language barrier and stuff, so he was stuck in what
02:37 might be one of the most appealing tourist cities in the world.
02:41 Then a CIA agent appeared out of nowhere, taking him out to operas, attractions, bars,
02:47 and for the best part, the agent paid for everything.
02:50 By the end of the day, the CIA agent befriended him and then, "Hey Bill, we've got your
02:55 brand new spy."
02:57 From what we know, after returning to China, the suspect continued to provide critical
03:01 intelligence to the CIA for monetary reward.
03:04 The official announcement did not state the time span of this spy activity.
03:08 The suspect is now being held in custody.
03:12 The news article was published by the social media account of the Chinese Ministry of State
03:15 Security.
03:17 The account has just been created two weeks before the announcement.
03:21 The account marked the debut of China's top national security institution on the internet.
03:26 Its first post on social media was titled "Mobilizing the whole society for counterintelligence
03:32 efforts," echoing China's recently revised counterespionage law.
03:36 Additionally, Chinese netizens discovered undertones in this announcement.
03:40 First, it's rare for state media to point out the name of the foreign agencies, like
03:45 CIA in this case.
03:47 Usually, the format would be like "The suspect was approached by a foreign intelligence agency."
03:54 The mentioning of CIA has evoked a sense of urgency among many, suggesting that China
03:59 is facing a direct threat from the United States, rather than a more generalized "West"
04:05 or "foreign" power.
04:06 Secondly, many people connect the news to the prior statement made by CIA Director William
04:11 J. Burns, who said in public that CIA has made progress in rebuilding its spy networks
04:17 in China.
04:18 Online discussions have now depicted the bust of the spy ring as not only a retaliation
04:23 against the US's aggressive move, but also a slap in the face to the Americans.
04:30 On November 4th, Australian Prime Minister Antony Albany started his four-day trip to
04:34 China, seeking dialogue and cooperation.
04:37 It is Albany's first visit to China since its inauguration, and the first visit by an
04:42 Australian Prime Minister since 2016.
04:46 On November 5th, Prime Minister Albany delivered a speech at the opening ceremony of the 6th
04:51 China International Import Expo in Shanghai.
04:54 "Constructive economic engagement between countries helps to build relationships.
04:58 That's why the government that I lead will continue to work constructively with China,"
05:03 he said in his speech.
05:05 The visit is largely reported positively in both China and Australia, which is seen as
05:10 China-Australia relations getting back in the right direction.
05:14 On November 6th, Prime Minister Albany met with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
05:19 President Xi told PM Albany that his visit can be described as "carrying on the past
05:23 and opening up the future," citing the fact that this year marks the 50th anniversary
05:28 of the trip made by Govt Whitlam, the first Australian leader to visit China.
05:33 Xi told Albany's "in the small yard and high fence mentality, decoupling and de-risking
05:38 are essentially forms of protectionism, which runs counter to the laws of the market, the
05:43 laws of science and the trend of human society."
05:47 China pursues a win-win strategy of opening up and comprehensively promotes the building
05:51 of a strong country and national rejuvenation through Chinese-style modernization.
05:56 This will bring unprecedented opportunities to Australia and other countries around the
06:00 world.
06:01 Xi called on China and Australia to enhance mutual understanding and trust through peaceful
06:06 coexistence and achieve common development through mutually beneficial cooperation.
06:12 On November 14th, Chinese President Xi Jinping touched down at San Francisco International
06:17 Airport for a significant diplomatic visit, which includes a highly anticipated meeting
06:22 with U.S. President Joe Biden and his attendance at the 30th Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
06:28 Leaders Summit.
06:29 It is Xi's first trip to the United States in six years and Biden's second in-person
06:35 meeting with Xi since assuming office in 2019.
06:38 Xi's arrival was met with a warm reception.
06:41 Notable figures from the US side, including Governor of California Gavin Newsom and Secretary
06:46 of the Treasury Janet Yellen, extended a cordial welcome to the Chinese leader.
06:50 Accompanying Xi on the trip are high-ranking Chinese officials, including the Chief of
06:55 Staff Tsai I-Chi and Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
06:58 The Chinese ambassador to the United States, Xie Feng, was also present at the airport.
07:03 Earlier this week, Biden expressed his objective to restore regular communications between
07:07 the two countries, including military contacts, during his upcoming discussions with Xi.
07:13 White House National Security Spokesperson John Kirby informed reporters that Biden and
07:18 Xi would discuss various topics, including the conflict in Gaza and Ukraine, economic
07:23 issues and climate change.
07:25 The world will watch closely on the outcome of Xi's visit, as it has the potential to
07:30 shape the trajectory of China-U.S. relations and impact the broader geopolitical landscape.
07:36 On November 15, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with U.S. President Biden at the Phyllis
07:40 Witherow House in San Francisco.
07:43 Before the formal meeting, there was a lively discussion on Chinese social media about San
07:47 Francisco's effort to spruce up the city and relocate its homeless population of thousands
07:52 before President Xi and other APEC leaders arrived.
07:56 The U.S. side described this as a "summit meeting."
07:59 Whether judged by the unique arrangement, the attention from both countries and the
08:03 international community were the significance of the meeting.
08:06 This was a summit of strategic importance with far-reaching impact.
08:10 It was the two leaders' first face-to-face meeting in a year.
08:14 President Xi stated that the fundamental question was whether China and U.S. saw each other
08:19 as partners or rivals and whether they pursued mutually beneficial cooperation or a zero-sum
08:24 confrontation.
08:25 He said the right choices in history must be made.
08:29 Xi elaborated on China's principles regarding Taiwan, stating it was the most important
08:34 and sensitive issue in China-U.S. relations.
08:37 China appreciated the U.S. reaffirming its "One China" policy in Bali.
08:41 The U.S. should reflect concrete actions by seizing arms sales and military support for
08:47 Taiwan and supporting peaceful reunification.
08:50 China will and must achieve reunification, Xi stated.
08:55 The leaders agreed to promote and strengthen dialogue and cooperation in various areas,
09:00 including establishing an artificial intelligence dialogue, anti-drug cooperation, resuming
09:05 military-to-military talks, increasing flights and expanding education, culture and business
09:10 exchanges.
09:11 They also stressed the importance of urgent climate action in these decisive decades and
09:16 welcomed recent discussions between the climate involves.
09:20 The top news of this week is definitely the arrival of the Arabic and Islamic foreign ministers.
09:26 From November 20th to 21st, a delegation of foreign ministers from Arab and Islam countries
09:32 visited China as their first stop of a tour aiming at ending the war in Gaza.
09:37 Members of the delegation include Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud,
09:42 Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, Egyptian Foreign Minister
09:47 Sameh Shoukry, Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Massoudi, Palestinian Foreign Minister
09:53 Riyad al-Maliki, and Secretary-General of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation Hizayn
09:59 Brahim Taha.
10:00 China vows to have in-depth communication and coordination with the delegation on ways
10:05 to de-escalate the ongoing Palestine-Israel conflict, protect civilians and seek a just
10:11 settlement of the Palestinian question.
10:14 Some believe that the delegation chose to go to China in the hope that China would act
10:18 as a superpower to pressure Israel to call for a ceasefire, especially after China mediated
10:24 Saudi-Iran deal.
10:26 However, some Chinese want China to remain calm.
10:30 China has done all it could in this conflict, including calls for a ceasefire in the international
10:35 community, providing supply and humanity aids.
10:38 The key to a ceasefire in the Gaza war still depends on the attitude of the United States.
10:45 That is not the only effort China did to promote peace in Palestine.
10:49 On November 21st, the leaders of the BRICS nations held a video meeting to address the
10:54 escalating war in Gaza.
10:56 Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Argentina and the United Arab Emirates, nations that
11:03 were invited to join the BRICS next year, also attended the meeting.
11:08 The virtual conference is the first of its kind dedicated to an international issue in
11:12 history of BRICS.
11:14 A joint statement was released calling for the release of hostage and a humanitarian
11:19 truce.
11:20 The statement was signed on by the UN Secretary General's office.
11:24 Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a speech during the BRICS leaders' video summit in
11:29 which he expressed his view on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and urged for immediate action to
11:35 achieve a lasting and secure peace.
11:38 He highlighted three urgent tasks that need to be addressed.
11:42 Firstly, he called for an immediate cessation of hostilities, urging the conflicting parties
11:47 to stop violence and attacks against civilians and release hostages.
11:52 Secondly, Xi emphasized the importance of secure humanitarian corridors and increased
11:57 assistance to the people in Gaza.
11:59 Lastly, Xi expressed the need for practical measures by the international community to
12:04 prevent the conflict from destabilizing the entire Middle East region.
12:08 The BRICS video conference on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict represents a significant milestone
12:14 in international diplomacy, showcasing the unity and determination of emerging market
12:19 countries and developing nations to address global challenges.
12:23 While leveraging the collective influence, the BRICS countries are striving to bring
12:28 about a peaceful resolution of the ongoing conflict and foster a more just and harmonious
12:33 world.
12:34 As of November 22, a deal was reached between the two conflicting parties to release hostages
12:40 from both sides.
12:42 Next up, on November 27, in response to massive rumor that DEL is planning on withdrawing
12:47 from the Chinese market, DEL's Vice President, Wu Dongmei, said DEL has never released any
12:53 misinformation regarding the so-called withdrawal from China.
12:57 Since earlier this year, rumors have been rampant about one of the largest laptop producers
13:02 withdrawing its supply chain from China.
13:05 The market worried that DEL is planning to decrease its chip procurement from Chinese
13:09 suppliers gradually, and the rumor even went to the point that DEL wants to completely
13:13 exit China.
13:14 "These rumors are definitely false," the Vice President reassured.
13:19 Similar whispers have grown in the past months as China's economy recovers amidst tense
13:24 China-U.S. relations.
13:26 Just days before Wu's clarification, rumors spread that DEL would stop selling a portion
13:31 of its product equipped with high-end AMD graphics cards on the Chinese market to comply
13:36 with U.S. chip plans.
13:38 In early November, U.S. investment giant Vanguard dismantled its last operating team in China.
13:44 According to China's Ministry of Commerce, the actual use of foreign direct investment
13:48 in the first three quarters of 2023 shows an 8.4% year-on-year decline.
13:54 Also in October, the governor of China's central bank emphasized in the report the
13:58 need to prevent the risk of abnormal fluctuations in cross-border fund flows, which analysts
14:04 interpreted as an echo of the Commerce Ministry's statistics.
14:08 In September, prominent chip producer Qualcomm confirmed it would lay off 20% of its employees
14:13 in its Shanghai office.
14:15 Yet many interpret these intertwined signs as market behaviors rather than a wave of
14:20 foreign investment escaping China en masse.
14:24 The Federal Reserve Board has maintained the federal funds rates in the range of 5.25 to
14:29 5.5%, the highest level in 22 years, and there's no reason to ignore such an impact on investment
14:36 behavior.
14:37 There will certainly be some fluctuations, as addressed in the column published by China
14:42 News Service, one of China's state media outlets.
14:45 With Xi Biden meeting in San Francisco amid the APEC summit, the market expects welcome
14:50 signs, rebound in economic interactions between the two countries.
14:54 Top 4 sports news.
14:58 On November 21, South Korea beat China 3-0 in a Group C of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Asian
15:04 Zone qualifying tournament.
15:06 China's defeat to South Korea was not unexpected, given the apparent disparity in the team's
15:11 strengths.
15:12 However, controversy ensued as Korean top star Song Hyeong-min's action on the field
15:17 sparked a heated debate.
15:19 After scoring a goal, the Tottenham captain made a gesture to silence the Chinese fans,
15:24 which didn't sit well with the Chinese players.
15:27 Speaking in a post-match interview, Son acknowledged the challenging nature of playing away from
15:31 home and expressed his appreciation for the enthusiastic Chinese fans.
15:35 The match also had its share of refereeing controversies, with Chinese players questioning
15:39 the first penalty awarded to Korea.
15:42 This is South Korea's second consecutive victory, placing them at the top of the group
15:46 standing.
15:47 And despite the loss, China is still in the race to qualify for the World Cup, as it had
15:51 won 2-1 against Thailand earlier this month.
15:54 With upcoming matches against Singapore in March next year, the Chinese team aims to
15:59 secure all six points and continue its progress.
16:03 On July 28, the FINA World Championships in Fukuoka, Chinese swimmer Qin Haiyang made
16:08 history by breaking the men's 200m breaststroke world record and winning the gold with a remarkable
16:14 time of 2 minutes and 5.48 seconds.
16:17 He becomes the first athlete ever to sweep all gold medals in the men's 50, 100 and
16:23 200m breaststroke events at a single edition of the World Championships.
16:27 As the 2023 FINA World Championships came to a close, Team China emerged as the dominant
16:33 force with an impressive haul of 20 gold, 8 silver and 12 bronze medals, topping the
16:38 gold medal tally.
16:40 The swimming team's remarkable performance marked a historic milestone for the Chinese
16:44 swimming team at the World Championships, surpassing their previous best result achieved
16:49 back in 1994 in Rome.
16:52 On August 2, Qin won the gold medal in men's 100m breaststroke at the 31st Summer Universiade
16:57 in Chengdu.
16:59 Undoubtedly, he has become the most anticipated star in the Chinese swimming team, drawing
17:04 significant attention and support from fans at home.
17:08 In an anti-corruption documentary aired on January 9, shocking revelations have emerged
17:14 regarding Li Tie, the former head coach of the National Men's Football Team.
17:18 Li admitted to paying bribes totaling 3 million yuan to secure his position as the National
17:23 Team coach.
17:24 Additionally, he confessed that the two teams he coached are involved in match-fixing on
17:29 their way to promotion.
17:31 Li disclosed that in the 2018 season, he lobbied Wu Hanzhou FC to pay 2 million yuan in bribes
17:38 to Chen Shiyuan, the former head of the Chinese Football Association, and 1 million yuan in
17:43 bribes to Liu Yi, former CFA Secretary General, in exchange for his appointment as the National
17:49 Team's head coach.
17:51 Li even signed a contract with Wu Hanzhou FC for 6 million yuan, which served as the
17:55 cover for the corrupt deal.
17:58 As an exchange, he selected four players from the Wu Han Club for the National Team.
18:03 Li Tie's confession led to an investigation by supervisory authorities, which subsequently
18:08 exposed several other officials suspected of corruption and other wrongdoing within
18:13 Chinese football.
18:14 This scandal has further tarnished the reputation of the sport in the country.
18:20 Last but not least, let's take a look at the Asian Games.
18:23 On September 8th, the torch relay of the 19th Asian Games started in Hangzhou, China.
18:29 A total of 2,023 torchbearers from different countries will pass on the torch.
18:35 Large crowds gathered along the routes of the relay to cheer for each torchbearer.
18:40 In addition to the torch relay, the fabulous light show in Hangzhou City also caught great
18:44 attention on the Chinese internet.
18:46 Plenty of videos about lights straight up in the sky went viral on Douyin, the Chinese
18:51 version of TikTok.
18:52 Netizens are joking even gods in heaven would have known that Hangzhou is hosting these
18:56 Asian Games.
18:57 All right, that's all for today's roundup.
19:00 Thank you for watching this special episode of China Currents.
19:03 If you have any thoughts and comments about our show, please reach us at the email address
19:07 below.
19:08 I'm Chris, looking forward to hearing from you, and happy Chinese New Year!
19:12 And see you in the next episode!
19:14 And we will now go to a short break, but we'll be right back.
19:21 Stay with us.
19:41 Welcome back to China Now.
19:43 This week's Thinkers Forum also looks back to 2023 at the hand of political studies professor
19:48 Radhinka Desai.
19:49 Let's see.
19:50 The US has no plan B. It has only plan A, and plan A consists of world domination, which
19:58 it is increasingly out of its grasp.
20:09 For me, that word is definitely Gaza and Palestine.
20:13 I think that while it did not change the trajectory on which the world was going, it has vastly
20:20 accelerated the progress of the world on a certain trajectory.
20:25 What trajectory was it?
20:26 Well, essentially, it is the trajectory in which the US attempts to control events around
20:32 the world, control the world basically in general, are rapidly unraveling.
20:37 Now, this was already becoming clear in the war against Russia, the proxy war against
20:42 Russia, which was conducted with Ukraine as a proxy, because no matter how many millions
20:48 the United States and the Europeans encouraged by the United States were pouring into Ukraine,
20:54 no matter how many armaments they were giving, it was not possible for them to help Ukraine
21:00 to defeat Russia.
21:02 And remember, this attempt to, this attack on proxy war against Russia was undertaken
21:07 with the blithe assumption that they were going to defeat the Russians and they were
21:12 going to reduce the Russian economy to, you know, bomb it back to the Stone Age and reduce
21:17 the ruble to a rubble and all this rhetoric.
21:19 And essentially, as you may remember, in the fall of 2021, the US, right after two events
21:27 happened, the Afghanistan withdrawal, which was so ignominious for the United States and
21:32 Mrs. Merkel stopping being the Chancellor of Germany.
21:36 Once these two events were out of the way, the United States essentially began an attempt
21:41 to reduce Russia, essentially, into a kind of, you know, forced Russia into succumbing,
21:48 fully confident that Russia would not initiate any kind of military action.
21:52 But Russia did, and that was the beginning of the unraveling of the American strategy.
21:57 So that was already happening.
21:59 But I think with the, essentially what has happened is with the resistance of the Palestinians
22:04 finally bubbling forth in Gaza, what has happened is that this unraveling of American attempts
22:11 to dominate the world is unraveling.
22:13 And this is happening in a number of ways.
22:16 Number one, it's very clear that the United States, so the first thing is that in a certain
22:22 sense, the United States pivot to Asia has not worked.
22:27 What do I mean by that?
22:29 What I mean is that when the United States decided that it was time to sort of shrug
22:33 off and shed the commitments and obligations that they have incurred in the Middle East
22:38 and start focusing on China, that's what they would dearly like to do.
22:42 That's where they feel the main competitive threat to the United States is coming from.
22:47 But in a certain sense, this is compelling their attention, their energy, their resources
22:53 back to the Middle East.
22:55 It is a Middle East which they do not even control in the sense that they cannot even
22:59 control Israel, let alone anybody else.
23:02 So on the one hand, Israel is essentially acting like a rogue state.
23:06 The United States is reduced to essentially pleading with Israel saying, please don't
23:11 do this and that, only because they know that they are losing the battle of world opinion.
23:17 So they are pleading with Israel to do this, that and the other, but they are not succeeding.
23:20 At the same time, it is not as though, you know, despite all the efforts of the last
23:25 many decades, they have not been able to bring the Arab countries of the region over to the
23:31 side of Israel.
23:32 So essentially what they are looking at is that the Arab countries, while they are not
23:36 engaging in any military intervention in the situation, but they are also essentially on
23:41 the side of the Palestinians for one very simple reason.
23:45 No Arab government, no matter how much they want to cozy up to Israel, can afford the
23:49 unpopularity that such actions will bring, even if they are quite an authoritarian government.
23:54 So for all, so that's the first one.
23:56 The second one is that I would say that there is an economic, you know, what I call, what
24:01 I do, geopolitical economy for a reason, because I think that economic and political power
24:06 is very deeply interconnected as we see, for example, in the case of China.
24:10 But anyway, in the case of the United States is the reverse, in the sense is the mirror
24:14 image, economic weakness brings political weakness.
24:17 But that is also that we are going to see that this is what has happened in Gaza is
24:21 going to make the economic management much more difficult in an election year.
24:27 So for example, the Federal Reserve is essentially proclaiming that it has won the battle against
24:32 inflation.
24:33 It has signaled that it is going to bring down interest rates.
24:35 But I would say that I would watch this brief very carefully for one very simple reason.
24:41 Inflation has not been kept down for two decades or for many decades since the 1980s because
24:47 of the scale of the Federal Reserve.
24:49 It was kept down largely because the United States was still able to compel much of the
24:54 world, not all of it, but much of the world to supply it with cheap goods on an ongoing
25:00 basis.
25:01 But that arrangement has broken down, which means that the, and this is one of the main
25:06 purposes of US imperialism is to keep getting cheap goods, cheap commodities, cheap labor.
25:12 All of those things are not going to work.
25:14 Food prices and fuel prices are going up, but so are the prices of manufactured commodities.
25:19 And as we see with the Gaza situation, it has led to the disruption of Red Sea, the
25:25 Suez Canal transport corridor, which then means that there is a massive addition to
25:30 the costs of goods coming to Europe, to the United States, etc.
25:34 And so all of this is going to, this is just one of the many uncertainties that is going
25:38 to add to inflation.
25:40 And finally, I would say that, you know, since keeping the dollar as the world's money has
25:45 been one of the main objectives of the United States, I would say that in 2023, we began
25:50 to see the shaking of the foundations of this.
25:53 And with the Gaza conflict in particular, what we have seen is that essentially the
25:58 world is uniting against United States and is increasingly able to find ways of, and
26:04 essentially the oil producing regions and the rest of the BRICS are going to come together
26:08 today.
26:09 Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc. are part of the BRICS bloc.
26:13 And I think under Russia's presidency this coming year, this process will also accelerate.
26:18 So for all of these reasons, I would say that the Gaza events, the Hamas actions, and the
26:25 Palestinian actions, essentially reminding the world that their very, very burning issue
26:31 remained unresolved, that Israeli oppression was only increasing.
26:36 And so this reminder is, I would say, the defining event of 2023.
26:48 I'm not a betting person, so I would say that both are possibilities.
26:52 So I would say that the gradual unraveling is already occurring.
26:56 So the US dollar's role as a major reserve currency is declining.
27:01 More and more transactions are now taking place outside the dollar system.
27:04 But I would say that there are two or three fronts on which I would watch.
27:08 Number one is, you know, this whole question of inflation is directly relevant to the dollar
27:13 system because it puts the US Federal Reserve in a bind.
27:18 So on the one hand, the Federal Reserve has had for the last couple of decades a regime
27:23 of easy monetary policy.
27:25 And that has meant that essentially all these financial structures have been constructed
27:30 on the basis of that regime.
27:32 And raising interest rates threatens financial stability in the United States.
27:36 And that has direct implications for the dollar system because the vastly bloated financial
27:43 system, the US dollar denominated financial system, which is headquartered in the United
27:46 States, has historically over the last couple of decades played the function of essentially
27:51 attracting the world's money into it to the extent that these investors want to make easy
27:57 money.
27:58 And so this money after 2008 was already drastically reduced.
28:03 And now if there are further, shall we say, further disturbances, and we already saw some
28:08 disturbances in the spring of 2023 with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and several
28:12 other banks, I would say that if inflation persists and the Federal Reserve has to keep
28:18 interest rates high or maybe even raise them higher, then these financial structures will
28:23 collapse and that will mean that the dollar system, system's credibility will waver.
28:29 Because you know, all the advocates of the dollar system, the ones who say, oh, the dollar
28:32 system is working very well, they are constantly referring to the broad and deep financial
28:37 markets of the United States.
28:39 Well, they will seem very quickly appear to be very shallow and narrow.
28:44 And so in that sense, we will see what happens.
28:47 And then on the other hand, if the Federal Reserve decides to preserve financial stability
28:51 and not increase interest rates, it's going to have a serious problem because essentially
28:56 the inflation itself will undermine the value of the dollar.
29:00 And so in both cases, it's caught between a rock and a hard place.
29:04 So that's one thing.
29:05 As I said, the other thing is that I don't think that they can expect inflation not to
29:09 continue because increasingly the US power is receding.
29:12 And with US power will recede its ability to compel the rest of the world to yield up
29:19 their commodities, their manufactured goods, their labor at a low price.
29:25 And this is what the United States has benefited from for the last four, four and a half decades.
29:29 It's because, the reason, the most profound reason why this has happened is because the
29:40 United States and Western elites in general are living in the past.
29:45 They think that their relative power compared to the rest of the world continues to be as
29:49 great as it once was, but this is no longer true.
29:52 So it's like somebody who thinks they have got a very powerful weapon in their hands,
29:57 but all they have is a water pistol.
30:00 Because you see this, having made that analogy, let me get down to the concrete reasons.
30:06 First of all, the imposition of sanctions themselves has been very patchy.
30:10 What do I mean by that?
30:12 They have tried to design the sanctions in such a way that existing businesses in their
30:17 own countries, whether it is the United States or Germany or Canada, are not unduly hurt,
30:22 which means that a lot of these businesses are continuing to do business with Russia,
30:26 simply because they don't want to hurt them.
30:28 Secondly, Russia has been able to rebuild its economy very quickly.
30:33 And remember, it had a long lead period, because the first sanctions were imposed in the aftermath
30:39 of the events of 2014.
30:42 So Russia had already, Russia faced agricultural sanctions and in the period since 2014, Russia
30:48 managed to turn around its agricultural economy in such a way that it is today a major exporter
30:53 of grain, fertilizers, etc., etc.
30:56 So that experience was already there and Russia has been able to essentially engage in a form
31:01 of import substituting industrialization.
31:04 And it has proved very good at that.
31:06 And I think the government has done that.
31:09 So I would say that a combination of things, the West's power to essentially cut off the
31:14 rest of the world is not as great as it once was.
31:17 And the fact of the matter is that Russia has taken a proactive stance on this.
31:23 So it has been able to outdo those sanctions.
31:27 There remains the question of financial sanctions.
31:29 But the fact again is that there are, especially now that if today the financial sanctions
31:36 only matter to you, if you are greatly desirous of participating, you and your capitalist
31:41 classes are greatly desirous of participating in the casino, that is the US financial sector.
31:47 If you don't wish to participate in that, you can organize your trade and even your
31:52 investment relations outside the ambit of the US financial system.
31:57 Why is that?
31:58 Because the US financial system, in fact, does not exist to facilitate trade.
32:01 In fact, it distorts trade and investment relations by artificially increasing the value
32:06 of the US dollar, etc.
32:08 And also, of course, introducing fluctuations in it and so on.
32:11 But on the other hand as well, the other reason is that historically, this system has been
32:16 created, for instance, by asking other countries to lift capital controls so that the rich
32:22 people of their country could participate in these casino-like arrangements.
32:27 This creation of this system was justified by saying to countries who people, you know,
32:33 and the Clinton administration, they would say to countries, if you lift capital controls,
32:36 it's very good for you because you will get the much needed capital that you need for
32:40 your productive investment.
32:42 But in reality, this never happened.
32:45 The only kind of money that went into these countries that lifted capital controls was
32:51 essentially short-term capital, which was there to not invest productively, but in fact,
32:57 to engage in speculation and make quick gains and then leave.
33:02 And so, this of course, was also very volatile, destabilizing, it led to financial crises
33:07 and so on.
33:08 So quite frankly, the world does not need the dollar system, the world does not need
33:12 the US financial system.
33:14 But so for all these reasons, I would say that the dollar system is going to unravel
33:18 pretty soon.
33:19 Yeah.
33:20 I would say that there was the China celebrating decade of the Belt and Road Initiative and
33:30 its success.
33:31 I think that was an important thing.
33:33 I think events in Latin America, particularly vis-a-vis the US being forced to soften its
33:39 position vis-a-vis Venezuela was another very important thing.
33:43 I think that the BRICS, the admission of five new countries into the BRICS, and now speaking
33:49 of Venezuela, the possibility that in 2024 under the Russian presidency, new countries,
33:55 including countries like Venezuela would be admitted to the BRICS.
33:58 I think all of these will be very momentous developments.
34:01 I would also say that other developments that are important is the sharpening of the confrontation
34:07 between the United States and China.
34:09 Although we have seen certain developments taking place, top level US officials going
34:14 to China and even President Xi and President Biden having a meeting.
34:18 But as you know, very quickly after the meeting, the whole thing has unraveled.
34:22 So it is not at all very clear.
34:24 So the United States is kind of essentially leaving pots boiling on many different elements
34:29 in the sense that its problematic relationship with China is far from resolved.
34:34 Remember, 2022 ended with the promise of better relations because President Xi and President
34:39 Biden met on the sidelines of that meeting in Indonesia.
34:42 I forget which one it was.
34:44 I think it was a G20 meeting.
34:45 And then everybody expected that there would be good relations, but then the United States
34:51 went hysterical over the spy balloon and everything else happened and so on.
34:56 But I would say that throughout all of this, the United States has acted irresponsibly,
35:01 provocatively, rudely, and in ways that it cannot sustain because it has threatened things
35:11 that it cannot actually back up.
35:13 There is no back.
35:14 It cannot actually do.
35:15 Whereas I would say that the President Xi and his government and his diplomats and everyone
35:20 have essentially engaged with the United States in particular with a remarkable combination
35:26 of a calm demeanor against provocation, you know, not taking it as a personal insult,
35:32 but behaving calmly even when the United States has been behaving insultingly because they
35:37 know that the prospects for world peace depend on them.
35:41 And so I would say that China has very good reasons to be proud of its government, of
35:46 its president, of its diplomats, because I think that this has been generally the demeanor.
35:51 They have kept the larger picture in mind that you cannot create a war-like situation
35:56 between the United States and China and not endanger world peace.
36:00 So they have kept that larger view in mind, and I think they have behaved exceedingly
36:04 responsibly.
36:05 And I would say with, as I say, great self-command and restraint.
36:09 China is very happy to be a prosperous society in a world of prosperous societies.
36:15 The United States is the opposite.
36:16 It has, on the one hand, organized its internal economy so badly that actually it cannot beat
36:22 China.
36:23 It is going to beat it, unless there is a 180-degree turn in US economic policy.
36:29 But we don't see any prospect of that.
36:31 At the same time, therefore, because it cannot actually quietly look after itself and, you
36:37 know, compete with China, it is trying to thwart China.
36:40 And so this is what we see.
36:42 And also it is doing so increasingly in its attempts.
36:46 What will happen inevitably is that if it does manage to provoke a confrontation, it
36:50 is not going to necessarily win that confrontation.
36:53 It is not going to necessarily successfully thwart China.
36:56 It may, of course, set China back a year or two, but at the end of the day, it does not
37:01 have the ability to win wars, even against countries like Afghanistan or Iraq or Libya.
37:08 How is it going to cope against a powerful country like China?
37:11 It is just nonsense.
37:13 But unfortunately, like I often say, the US has no plan B. It has only plan A, and plan
37:20 A consists of world domination, which it is increasingly out of its grasp.
37:25 But because there is no sensible voice saying, you know what, folks, we don't need this.
37:30 We can be like other good international citizens.
37:34 We can be a country that looks after its own, which the US clearly does not, if you look
37:38 at the levels of poverty, inequality, homelessness, lack of medical care, etc.
37:43 But the US does not wish to address those things.
37:46 And instead, it wishes to engage in this hollow competition.
37:50 It can only end badly.
37:52 And all one can hope is that the kind of restraint which is being showed by leaders like Xi,
37:57 and I will also say President Putin, will prevail in the end.
38:01 They will not lead to any unnecessary wars, and may even prevail over the US's worst provocations
38:08 and give the world the peace it needs to pursue development.
38:12 Finally, I should say that I think, I can't remember exactly whether they were published
38:16 in 2023 or the previous year, but the various policy documents that China has brought forward,
38:21 the Global Security Initiative, the Development Initiative, etc., etc., these documents have
38:26 also provided a very important guideline, so to speak, for the emerging, definitely
38:32 emerging multipolar world order, because that's the flip side of the unravelling of US power,
38:38 is that the world order is creating greater space for countries to choose development
38:44 and to develop their own countries.
38:52 That's a difficult question, because the very point about multipolarity is that your power
38:57 is being dispersed in the system.
38:59 So in that sense, I would say that this focus on a single person is difficult.
39:03 But in any case, since I said that it's Gaza, I would say that it's Palestine as a personality.
39:09 I think the Palestinian cause is, I would say, the most important personality in 2020.
39:21 You know, 2024 is going to be that, it's going to be really a pivot point, because think
39:26 about it, the United States, the United Kingdom, India, and several other countries that are,
39:34 you know, essentially part of the US alliance, they're all going to the polls.
39:39 And this is where you're going to see the domestic forces adding to the possibility
39:45 of destabilization of the US system, because the fact is that all the US's actions, whether
39:51 it is the proxy war against Russia, or whether it is the support, the unstinting support
39:57 for Israel, these are deeply unpopular among the American public.
40:01 Even very significant numbers of Jewish Americans have taken to the streets and are demonstrating
40:07 that they do not want this unconditional support for the Netanyahu regime.
40:11 And the fact of the matter is that the United States is not doing this because of any support
40:15 for Jewish people.
40:16 It has historically done this in order to establish a foothold in the Middle East, in
40:20 which case, of course, Israel is an instrument for the United States.
40:24 At the end of the day, it is nothing more than that.
40:26 But anyway, so to me, so that's one thing, again, in the UK, I mean, it looks as though
40:31 there will be an election, and I think the election will be quite divisive.
40:36 He thinks that Kirsten is going to win.
40:38 And of course, if he wins, then the UK's support for the United States will not decrease.
40:43 But that will only create further instability within the UK, because this support for the
40:47 United States is not, it's not viable.
40:51 It is not a viable policy for the UK to have any longer.
40:54 The UK is suffering from profound domestic crises, crisis of the economy, crisis of social
41:00 services, crisis of every institution, every possible direction.
41:05 And I think that a Kirsten government will be unable to resolve these crises.
41:10 And of course, in the case of India, as well, I mean, India has already, it seemed many
41:14 people would say, turned away from its sort of simply pro-US stance.
41:20 So exactly how this appears, pans out in the election, we will have to see.
41:25 So in all of these ways, I think that domestic concerns and the ordinary popular concerns
41:30 will increasingly, will essentially make it very difficult for existing powers to win
41:35 convincingly.
41:36 And, you know, in the case of the UK, or for that matter, in the US, but certainly in the
41:40 UK, the same establishment will win if Keir Starmer wins, right.
41:44 But the fact is that this establishment's ability to, or this establishment's legitimacy
41:49 has been massively undermined.
41:51 So for all these reasons, for all these reasons, there are going to be some profound interactions,
41:56 I would say, between the domestic and the international.
41:59 And we are going to have to observe again what happens here.
42:07 And this was another episode of China Now, a show that opens a window to the present
42:11 and future of the Asian giant.
42:14 Hope you enjoyed it.
42:15 See you next time.
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