10 Day Trend 20/03/2024 – Any sign of the rain stopping? – Met Office weather forecast UK - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 20/03/2024.  Following the earliest spring equinox for 128 years, the weather in the UK will feel more like winter again later this week as northwesterly winds bring sunny spells, showers and overnight frosts. Will the unsettled weather continue into next week and beyond? Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Aidan McGivern.  You may also enjoy: – Deep dive in-depth forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt – Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0 – Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL

Transcript

00:00 Hello and welcome to the Metal Fist 10-Day Trend. This year we saw the earliest spring

00:04 for 128 years, although I'm not talking about the UK's weather, I'm talking about the spring

00:09 equinox which was just after 3am on the 20th March. The time and date vary each year depending

00:16 on leap years. This year it was the earliest for 128 years. No consequences for the UK's

00:21 weather which is about to turn colder. This is the temperature difference compared with

00:26 the March minimum average. Friday night's temperatures will be well below average for

00:32 the time of year. But the cause of that is colder weather coming in from the north west.

00:37 Ahead of that colder weather actually for many Thursday will be a mild day, especially

00:43 for southern and south eastern parts of the UK. Towards the north west it turns unsettled,

00:48 wet and windy as the weather front moves through. Once that moves through we're into this colder

00:52 and more showery airflow for Friday and throughout much of the weekend as well. It's going to

00:57 feel colder and there will be a mixture of sunny spells and showers. So let's put a bit

01:02 of detail on that. Thursday starts off dry across much of England and Wales, a few dribs

01:06 and drabs of rain across northern England. But really it's Scotland and Northern Ireland

01:09 where we see the wet and windy weather moving through, some persistent and heavy rain at

01:14 times especially for western Scotland and Northern Ireland. The wind is picking up as

01:18 well. But for the southern half of the UK actually that front stays clear until the

01:23 end of the day and so some sunny spells and in any sunny spells out of the breeze it's

01:28 going to feel pleasant enough. 15, 16, 17 Celsius possible. Feeling colder as we end

01:35 Thursday towards the north west and that fresher air arrives from the west north west. The

01:40 front moves south, some persistent rain overnight for northern England into the midlands, Wales

01:46 and the south west. Just about avoiding the south east through the hours of darkness and

01:52 the front tends to peter out so not a great deal of rain on it by the time we start off

01:56 Friday. But it does tend to keep those temperatures a little higher across southern parts whilst

02:01 we're back into the colder air further north. Blustery showers pushing into Scotland and

02:05 Northern Ireland for Friday and then fast forward a few hours into Friday afternoon

02:10 and here it looks with that showery airflow across much of the UK. Some heavy downpours

02:15 for Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland in particular. A cold wind blowing

02:20 with those showers falling as snow above 4-500 metres for the Scottish mountains. But those

02:26 showers not really reaching much of the midlands, East Anglia, the south and south east although

02:31 the rain could just about linger there throughout much of the day in the far south east a bit

02:35 of uncertainty at the timing of the clearance of that. You'll notice that the temperatures

02:39 are certainly down across southern parts of the UK and feeling cold in the north as well.

02:46 However, we're only back to close to average, perhaps a degree or two below in places I'd

02:52 say central and northern Scotland most prone to significantly below average temperatures

02:56 on Friday. But otherwise we're into this colour here compared to the March average max so

03:01 within about 3 degrees or so. Contrast that with Friday night's temperatures which will

03:05 be significantly below average. These are the actual values expected in main urban centres,

03:12 one or two Celsius generally. But in rural spots out of the breeze with clear spells

03:17 certainly a frost expected for the start of Saturday. So be aware of that if you are a

03:22 keen gardener. Now, we're into that showery airflow for much of the weekend. Low pressure

03:28 situated to the north of the UK bringing some strong winds, perhaps gales for a time before

03:32 it moves into the North Sea. And by the start of Sunday, still some showers in the east

03:37 clearing before the next area of rain moves in from the west. But in between this brief

03:42 ridge of high pressure bringing a very subtle settled spell for a time on Sunday. Saturday

03:49 isn't going to be settled. It's going to be blustery. It's going to feel cold in that

03:53 wind 11 Celsius in the south, 6 to 8 in the north. And those showers will be lively potential

03:59 for rumbles of thunder, some hail as well. They'll be moving through swiftly because

04:03 of the breeze. Some brighter spells in between, some rainbows to enjoy. And those showers

04:08 falling as snow once again over the Scottish mountains. But nothing untoward about that

04:15 for the time of year. The showers more confined to eastern parts of the UK for Sunday. Again,

04:20 feeling cold particularly along that North Sea coast. Further south and southwest, actually

04:24 the temperatures a degree or two up because we're going to start to see the winds changing.

04:29 However, those winds begin to bring thicker cloud and outbreaks of rain in by the end

04:33 of the day across parts of Cornwall, a sign of what's to come for Monday and Tuesday.

04:39 And this all to do with perturbations in the jet stream as we go through into the start

04:43 of next week. We'll look at this from Saturday. And we've got this trough in the jet stream.

04:50 That's responsible for the colder airflow and the showery conditions. But upstream,

04:55 a big ridge in the jet stream for Saturday doesn't quite affect us that much because

05:01 what happens is this other branch of the jet stream just slices across it, cuts off that

05:07 ridge and we end up with once again a south shifted jet stream for the start of next week,

05:13 sending once again south shifted low pressure, which once again brings us more rainfall for

05:21 the start of next week. Some uncertainty about the timings of the rain moving in later

05:25 Sunday and into Monday. But well, there's a high degree of confidence that on Monday

05:30 and in fact into Tuesday and Wednesday, we're going to have low pressure pretty much over

05:34 the UK, bringing us spells of rain and showers, especially across western and southern parts

05:40 of the country. So these are most likely weather patterns for Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday

05:47 sees low pressure centred over the UK. This is from the European model. There's the UK

05:51 and that low, as you can see by the bright colours, bringing plenty of rain or showers

05:55 and temperatures a little below average for the time of year. Likewise, for Wednesday,

06:01 the initial low moves away, but the next low hot on its heels, moving in from the northwest

06:06 to bring more spells of rain and showers, especially across western parts. Not good

06:10 news, of course, for many people who are fed up with the relentless rainy weather. And

06:16 I'm afraid to say that this is how things look for later next week. Yet again, low pressure

06:22 in charge, a high degree of confidence that low pressure will be closer to the UK for

06:27 much of next week. A little bit of uncertainty by the latter half of next week about the

06:32 position of the low, whether it will be to the northwest or more towards the southwest.

06:36 But either way, it's likely to be unsettled with winds coming from the southwest, perhaps

06:41 increasing the temperatures gradually through next week, but keeping things unsettled with

06:45 the wettest weather in the west and the southwest, perhaps drier at times to the north and northeast.

06:51 In between the bands of rain and showers, there will always be some drier interludes,

06:56 some March sunshine, which is strengthening and is going to feel a little more pleasant

07:01 than what we've experienced throughout much of winter. But nevertheless, no sign of any

07:05 prolonged settle spell through to the start of the Easter weekend. And this just illustrates

07:12 those trends. This is for a central part of the UK. We've got the rainfall trend on the

07:16 top. And as you can see, for each day going out to the next two weeks, a lot of rainfall

07:21 expected each day, either in the form of rain, longer spells of rain or showers. And the

07:27 wind direction, this is interesting, switches from most likely westerly winds. That's what

07:32 this is showing for Friday and Saturday, more towards south or southwesterly winds for later

07:37 next week. And that has an impact on temperatures. This is the temperature trend, the average

07:42 maximum temperature shown in red, the average minimum temperature shown in blue, and the

07:46 boxes show the likely range on each day. And as you can see, it's most likely to be just

07:51 a bit below average for the weekend and the start of next week before perhaps a slight

07:56 increase towards the end of the week and into the Easter weekend to above average. Although

08:02 if you've got spells of rain and showers, the temperatures are fairly academic. It's

08:06 not going to feel particularly warm. So, after all that soggy news, I just want to end with

08:12 something perhaps a little more optimistic. And this shows the most likely weather patterns

08:17 for each day out to the next two weeks. Now, don't worry too much about the details here.

08:23 Just think of it as blue colours indicate that low pressure is close to the UK. Red

08:28 and oranges indicate that higher pressure is closer to the UK. And you can see through

08:33 the Easter weekend just some indication there of the blues getting smaller and the reds

08:40 getting bigger, but a lot of uncertainty by this stage in terms of which exact weather

08:45 patterns are going to be in control of our weather. It's just a hint there that things

08:49 may begin to settle down through the Easter weekend. And the most likely place for that

08:54 more settled weather would be towards the north of the country because these red colours

08:59 are indicative of a Scandinavian high pressure or high pressure centred to the north of the

09:04 country. So, perhaps the south keeping the more unsettled changeable showery weather

09:09 for longer through the weekend of Easter, the north perhaps settling down a little sooner.

09:15 But of course, it's a long way off and we'll keep you updated right here on all the spring

09:20 weather to come right here at the Met Office. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and you'll

09:25 never miss an update. Bye-bye.

09:26 Thank you.

10 Day Trend 20/03/2024 – Any sign of the rain stopping? – Met Office weather forecast UK

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