AFC West: Chiefs Lead as Super Bowl Favs + Best Bets and Futures
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00:00We'll be right back.
00:04Back in the here. It's pro
00:07football today. Joe Lisi, Donny
00:08Right side. I'm Kevin Walsh. We
00:10line up the AFC West and we
00:13talk Chiefs off the top.
00:15They're the Super Bowl
00:16favorites. Pat Mahomes is the
00:18MVP favorite. We'll get to all
00:20of that but for a while and not
00:22that long but there was an idea
00:25that they would see some
00:27significant challenges from
00:29the Broncos brought in Russell
00:31Wilson. It went worse than
00:33almost anybody could have
00:35envisioned the Chargers had
00:37Justin Herbert, but also maybe
00:39the worst coach in the history
00:40of this league and Brandon
00:41Staley and the Raiders stuff has
00:44just been messy for a while. So
00:47now when you look at this
00:49division, Kansas City's price
00:51minus 230. Look around the rest
00:54of this league. It's it's
00:56clearly the biggest favorite on
00:58the board. So before we get to
01:00Kansas City, Joe Chargers
01:02Raiders Broncos. If you had to
01:05pick a second team to be
01:07interested in in a positive
01:09direction, who would it be
01:10Las Vegas and old man Gardner
01:12Minshew because I actually think
01:14he can win games in the NFL you
01:16add Brock Bowers along Devante
01:18Adams in terms of that offense.
01:20They have now dynamic hybrid
01:22type of playmakers that can
01:24stretch defenses over the top.
01:25We saw as a mere white and the
01:27offensive line as it relates to
01:28the rushing attack take games
01:30over at the end of the regular
01:31season. They got conference
01:33divisional wins over Kansas City
01:35as a 12 and a half point dog in
01:37Arrowhead and they blew out the
01:39Chargers last year with Brandon
01:41Stanley at the end of the
01:42regular season. I would bet on
01:44Las Vegas is being the second
01:45best team. I love what they did
01:47in regards to the offseason
01:48addition six and a half win
01:50total. I think they could be an
01:51eight or nine win football team
01:53Donnie and we are to obviously
01:55we're going to talk about the
01:56Chargers but there's not a lot
01:57to love in this division where
01:58we're saying like who do you
01:59like it should automatically be
02:00the Chargers are the team that
02:02is supposed to challenge the
02:03Kansas City Chiefs. But here's
02:05what's happening here and
02:06rightfully so there's a reason
02:07why the Chargers haven't won big
02:09over the past couple years
02:10whether it's the head coach or
02:11just the way the team was put
02:12together because for some reason
02:14they just don't work on paper
02:16phenomenal when you look at it
02:17pass rush secondary athletic
02:19linebackers running game wide
02:21receivers quarterback. It should
02:22all be there and it just hasn't
02:23worked. Now you bring in hard
02:25ball from Michigan he's going to
02:27hit the ground running which
02:28what does that mean. Hey look I
02:29know I got some talented wide
02:30receivers whoop you're gone.
02:31I'll draft my own guys. We might
02:33want to get back to running the
02:34football more than we do in the
02:35past which is like the opposite
02:36of what you probably think with
02:37Justin Herbert. It will take
02:39time. Harbaugh is going to fix
02:41this team. It's just not going
02:42to be this year. I would have
02:43loved to have seen if Harbaugh
02:45had come in guys didn't make a
02:46single change personnel wise and
02:48goes well I got a lot of talent.
02:49Let me just see one year on an
02:50evaluation before I blow it up
02:52because I'm going to be here for
02:53a couple of years. He didn't he
02:54tore it down right away which
02:56you know they're going to be
02:57competitive in football games.
02:58I just don't think they have the
02:59horses there. The Vegas Raiders
03:00as you talked about. I love
03:02Gardner Minshew more than
03:03anybody. But sooner or later the
03:04luck is going to run out of
03:05Gardner Minshew where it's like
03:06hey I got to lead football teams
03:07multiple teams to victory here
03:09in a division with the Chiefs.
03:10I just don't see it. And then
03:11the Denver Broncos seem like
03:12they're just restarting at
03:13quarterback. So it might be a
03:15gift for Kansas City. But for
03:16me again it should be an easy
03:18Chargers answer. But I don't
03:20even have an answer for that
03:21because I don't think they're
03:22going to be all that good this
03:23year. I think it's interesting
03:24if you look the Chargers it's a
03:26plus price to make the playoffs
03:28but it's not a big one. Yeah.
03:30Right. It's plus 1 0 6. So you
03:31could fade that team. Are we
03:33just betting them because
03:34Harbaugh's there. Like what are
03:35we betting them. Well there's
03:36still a lot of people that
03:37think Herbert's one of the five
03:38best quarterbacks. No no no. I
03:39and I I'm coming from the school
03:40of thought. I like Herbert but
03:42they're not as talented as they
03:43were last year. I think if you
03:45I think there are people who
03:46will say and not to do it
03:48because it'll get tricky to do
03:49off the top. You had right
03:50coach quarterback combos. I
03:52would imagine they'd be
03:53comfortably inside your top 10.
03:55Yeah. People that typically
03:56will just bet on that. I hear
03:57you. But I'm not saying that
03:59that's what I'm doing right. I
04:00think the Chargers numbers
04:02again they don't feel as
04:04discounted as I would envision
04:07due to a lot of the moves that
04:08they've made. The one that
04:10actually jumps off the page for
04:12me a bit is is Denver. I here's
04:15the thing. I know Sean Payton
04:18has fallen out of favor for a
04:20lot of people. But if we all
04:22agree that Russell Wilson is
04:24largely a train wreck then why
04:27is it all Sean Payton's fault
04:28who went eight and nine last
04:30year. I mean is that win total.
04:32Is that correct. Five and a
04:34half. I mean are you serious.
04:36Yeah. Well yeah. Sean Payton
04:37winning five games. Yeah.
04:39Listen you're going to tell me
04:40Bo Nix is bad. Is he that bad.
04:42No. Well here's the thing. I'll
04:44say this. I don't think Bo Nix
04:45is that bad. He's coming off
04:46one of the most prolific seasons
04:48in college football history
04:4945 touchdowns three
04:51interceptions 78 percent
04:53completion percentage. He was
04:54one of the top quarterbacks in
04:56all the FBS. I believe Bo Nix
04:58can be successful but it's a
05:00huge ass number one. You get
05:01rid of your best playmaker Jerry
05:03Judy and I just don't think Sean
05:05Payton's in it for the long
05:06haul. I'm sorry. I do not
05:07believe Sean Payton took this
05:09job in Denver to completely
05:11rebuild this from the inside
05:13out like Jim Harbaugh. He took
05:15this job because he thought it
05:16was a shiny Ferrari. He could
05:18wave the pixie dust over it and
05:20make the playoffs and
05:21potentially challenge for a
05:22Super Bowl with a Super Bowl
05:24quarterback at the helm in
05:26terms of Russell Wilson. Once
05:27he found out the type of player
05:29Russell Wilson was in regards to
05:31this point in his career and
05:32more importantly in the
05:34locker room he blew it up. He
05:35wanted to get rid of Sutton and
05:37Judy in the middle part of the
05:38year after the Miami put up 70
05:41in that game. But that's what
05:42Harbaugh did. Harbaugh blew it
05:43up. But that's the right thing.
05:45Harbaugh's in it for the
05:46rebuild. Harbaugh's in it
05:47because he won a national
05:49championship and he wants to get
05:51back to becoming an NFL
05:52champion. And he doesn't care if
05:54it takes two or three seasons.
05:55And he has his he figures he has
05:57his long right. Right. He has
05:59the quarterback. Now Sean
06:00Payton said well I have Russ.
06:02I'll just you know it's all he
06:04needs is me and my tutelage and
06:06we could be a 10 or 11 win
06:08football team make the playoffs
06:09and challenge Kansas City. Once
06:11he realized it was harder than
06:13that he's got his sights set on
06:15a 50 million dollar job probably
06:17back with Fox and he wasn't that
06:18good anyway. Well I like that.
06:21But my. So I don't know if I can
06:24get there because Mike Tomlin
06:26who everybody loves is trying to
06:27latch on to Russ and Sean Payton
06:29this guy's terrible. This guy's
06:30awful. And he's now bought into
06:32a young kid in Bo Nix that he
06:34was high on. I think he's
06:35trying to cover ground by acting
06:36like he had Bo Nix as the number
06:37one quarterback in the draft.
06:39But you got Sean Sean Payton
06:40winning five games. So I got to
06:42pretend Mike Tomlin is going to
06:43go going to go over 500 every
06:45single year and I got Sean
06:46Payton winning four games three
06:47games. They just didn't work.
06:49But they went eight nine. Yeah
06:50but it couldn't have gone worse
06:51and they went eight nine. Yeah.
06:53The record the problem with that
06:54is because and to Joe's point
06:56quickly here is you get the
06:58quarterback he thought he was
06:59skating right in like I got
07:00Russell Wilson it didn't work.
07:01Watch me be a genius next year
07:02because I'll make a Hall of Fame
07:04quarterback work. That's easy
07:05work. It didn't work and not
07:06only didn't work you move him
07:08away and you blow up that salary
07:09cap. So he's in so much trouble
07:11right now that you had the swing
07:12for Bo Nix and hope it works out.
07:13Otherwise it's going to be
07:14misery. They didn't sign up for
07:16three mediocre years on the
07:17Sean Payton. Five and twelve to
07:19eight nine to four wins. I don't
07:22know about all that.
07:25Back here it's pro football
07:27today and as tempting as it is
07:29to just yell at them and beg
07:31them to agree with me that the
07:32Broncos will be good. I won't do
07:34that before we get to Kansas
07:35City. There is one other point I
07:37want to bring up on the other
07:39teams with the Raiders starting
07:41quarterback price Gardner Minshew
07:42minus 225 and O'Connell plus 172.
07:47I feel like they should be
07:48starting O'Connell and giving him
07:49that opportunity. But I guess the
07:52idea around the Raiders is
07:53they're going to be contending
07:54for a big time playoff spot this
07:56year. Yes. Yes. I think they're
07:57going to be an eight or nine win
07:59football team. And Pierce has
08:00done a pretty good job. The
08:02players love him. Crosby loves
08:04him. That defense stepped up if
08:05they could play the way they did
08:06at the end of the regular season
08:08again knocking off the charges
08:10in Kansas City. Why can't you
08:11say we're going to compete for a
08:13wild card this year. The
08:14division is winnable outside the
08:16Kansas City Chiefs. Right. So
08:18what I'm saying is pretty good.
08:21Let me rephrase that. What I
08:23mean by what I mean by that is
08:24Kansas City. Right. If they lose
08:26both games against Kansas City
08:27assuming that they still have the
08:29opportunity to be four and two
08:31in the division. Oh I got you.
08:32Right. OK. I mean so they can be
08:34the second best team. They have
08:36a veteran quarterback. I think
08:37the defense to me showed me
08:39something. I don't know why
08:41their win total is six and a
08:42half. That's more that's more
08:44intriguing to me than the Denver
08:46total at five and a half. Here's
08:48what I think most teams would
08:49also make the error in judgment
08:50which like Antonio Pierce seems
08:52like he's a very good coaches
08:53player or players coach which
08:55means when you're entering into
08:56the season he's not going to say
08:58in O'Connell I don't think you
08:59deserved it but upper
09:00management's telling me we got
09:01to go with the young kid to see
09:02what you got. Like you didn't
09:03bring Gardner mentioned that
09:04hey you're that super backup
09:05just in case it goes bad rescue
09:07our team and make the playoffs.
09:08So how does he believe you
09:09should start the best
09:10quarterback. And I don't think
09:11Antonio Pierce with the way he
09:13took over that locker room how
09:14they respect them where
09:15everybody sees that should be
09:17the quarterback. But yet that
09:18quarterback is still in there.
09:19It's not going to happen. I
09:20think our dementia day number
09:21one should be your starter out
09:22there. I do. I disagree. I get
09:24it though ultimately because I
09:26do think their thought is we are
09:28trying to win football games and
09:30Gardner winning that battle
09:32wouldn't surprise me all at all.
09:34Let's get to Kansas City. Here's
09:36what I actually want to start
09:37with the Chiefs because we
09:38already saw their favorites.
09:39They're great. Even if they look
09:40bad we'll believe in them. We
09:41get it. Week one they host
09:43Baltimore week two they host
09:44Cincinnati. What a massive two
09:47game stretch there where if they
09:50go to and oh you might be
09:52talking under 4 to 1 to win a
09:54Super Bowl. Yeah. But if you
09:55take those two teams that we
09:57have seen be good the regular
09:58season and by chance they put 0
10:01and 2 on KC unlikely super
10:04unlikely all of a sudden then
10:06things get really really
10:07interesting. I guess the most
10:09likely outcome would be a one
10:11in one start for KC. But even
10:13that would be super
10:14fascinating because it will
10:15have a lot of implications on
10:16the north which we've already
10:18talked about. I just find that
10:20KC open to the season Lisey
10:21super fast. It is. And if they
10:23do go 0 and 2 are they going to
10:25move off the 6 to 1 to win the
10:27Super Bowl. Probably not. Maybe
10:28they go to 7 7 to 1 8 to 1.
10:31They're not going with 10 to 1
10:32if they start 0 and 2. They lost
10:34to Detroit last year 21 20 and
10:37they still found a way with a
10:39one dimensional type of offense
10:41and lack of explosive passing
10:44attack to still win the Super
10:45Bowl. Now you add more keys
10:47Brown into the mix. Xavier
10:49worthy Isaiah Pacheco and
10:51Travis Kelsey in terms of a
10:52playoff type of situation with
10:54Pat Mahomes they're not going
10:55anywhere. So again maybe it
10:57affects the divisional odds and
10:59maybe it affects the AFC
11:00championship odds to a degree.
11:03But from the Super Bowl
11:04perspective there's still value
11:06at 6 to 1 overall. When you get
11:08Pat Mahomes at 6 to 1. I mean
11:11barring any major injury I buy
11:13in right now. I am buying in
11:15already and it's not because I
11:16love the Chiefs. I just love
11:17Patrick Mahomes and he's shown
11:18me time and time again. Same
11:20with Andy Reid. It doesn't
11:21matter who's on the field who my
11:23running back is who my wide
11:24receivers are who my defense is
11:26as long as I have the football
11:27to win that game like last year
11:29like you should get that break
11:30you play Miami at home in the
11:31freezing cold conditions where
11:32Miami just wilted and was done.
11:34But then he said you know what
11:35they got the bills. Yeah man
11:37they squeaked. I can't believe
11:38that. No way they beat the
11:40Ravens on the road. They did it
11:41they beat the two best teams in
11:42the AFC on the road. So what
11:44leads me to believe this year if
11:46again Patrick Mahomes is healthy
11:47which he hasn't shown us that he
11:49can't stay healthy for a season.
11:50Why are we just betting on him
11:51automatically. Like and again
11:53the division sometimes it makes
11:54it so hard to get there. Their
11:56division is so easy while
11:57they're minus 230. They should
11:59walk into that have at least one
12:01home game and away you go. Oh
12:02look at that. They only have one
12:03home game. You got to get the
12:05AFC championship out of Arrowhead.
12:07Doesn't matter. They keep
12:08winning it. Yeah I think the
12:09frustrating thing for me and I
12:11know some people say I'm a
12:12hater. I left unimpressed. I
12:15know they won the Super Bowl.
12:16Yeah. Buffalo left a million
12:18things on the table. Everybody
12:19involved with the Ravens should
12:20be fired and don't get me
12:22started on the Super Bowl. The
12:23actual Super Bowl I never want
12:24to talk about it again. The
12:25whole thing was miserable but
12:27they took advantage but it was a
12:29down year. So again I don't
12:31know how often you can get that
12:32fortunate. They might not need
12:35to if they're better this year
12:37which is definitely on the board
12:39especially with the way the
12:40division could be shaping up.