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00:00Now, this is what you want on the opening day of the 2024 NFL
00:08season. The prompt perspective for Thursday night football and
00:12the season debut in Kansas City between the Chiefs and the
00:15Ravens with the one, the only Sports Grizz. Tom Vecchio.
00:19Vecchio, we appreciate the time bright and early on this
00:22Thursday. Long day for you here on the Spiz Grizz. You'll be on
00:25the halftime show later with KC Hudson, the post game show
00:29with KC as well. Following all the action tonight in Kansas
00:33City. A long opening day of the NFL season. But a good one
00:37Vecchio. We appreciate you being here. Of course, that's
00:40right. Opening night tonight. We will also be doing the show
00:44for tomorrow night's game. You know, NFL season is here. We
00:48waited all summer for this moment. I am ready to go.
00:51There's plenty to get to. Not the jack of all trades today.
00:54It's just football. Let's roll. That's okay. Major League
00:58Baseball can take a back seat. So, you get that prompt
01:02perspective. The football extraordinaire for this
01:05Thursday night with Tom Vecchio. Kansas City remains a
01:08three-point favorite. The total 46 and a half for the season
01:11debut tonight in Arrowhead. A lot of what you do Vecchio is
01:16numbers driven. That's where you go first and foremost and
01:19then find the correlated bets to that. So, what is the spread
01:23and the total telling you about tonight's season opener? You
01:27know, it's what we should be expecting from these two teams.
01:30I don't think it would be a surprise to anyone or at least
01:33not to me if we see this game start off really slow as we
01:36have seen in a lot of openers. You know, really scripted. A
01:40part of me wants to go back to the bet that we made a few
01:42times last year. Remember, opening drives punt, punt for
01:45both teams. That's always exciting. Starting off the
01:49season a little bit slow. Wouldn't mind taking a live
01:52over if this number drops to 4140 somewhere around there.
01:57I think that would be a spot to certainly look. I am on
02:00Baltimore at plus three. I am on the under as of now but I
02:03will be looking to take a live over if that does drop down and
02:05try to find a bit of a middle ground. Tom, quarterback props
02:09here from two MVPs, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Over
02:13269 and a half currently at the FanBull Sportsbook for
02:15Patrick Mahomes. Lamar Jackson's number coming in at
02:18217 and a half. If we look at their rushing props as a
02:20quarterback. Patrick Mahomes over 20 and a half and Lamar
02:23Jackson over 48 and a half and he looks at the quarterbacks
02:26and the expectations tonight. Yeah, I think these are pretty
02:30spot on Mahomes number rising as the day goes on compared to
02:33where it opened. I'm not surprised there are a lot of
02:35people are betting that I think continuously whether it's last
02:38season, the year before moving forward throughout the the rest
02:41of this year, it's probably going to be Lamar combined at
02:44272 rushing plus passing is always good but I also do like
02:48Mahomes at over 20 because we know he gets pushed out of the
02:50pocket. There's so many good options for him downfield that
02:53when he does get pushed out, he has been scrambling more and
02:56more and we routinely see that especially late in the season.
02:58So maybe Lamar combined over and then Mahomes just rushing
03:02over. It's a very good look. Let's keep it on the ground. A
03:06new face in Baltimore but a very familiar one in the
03:09National Football League. The king is now in the Charm City.
03:13Derek Henry, the lead back for the Ravens. Isaiah Pacheco
03:17remains in KC. His total 61 and a half. A little bit higher
03:21for Henry at 65 and a hook. Let's start with Derek Henry.
03:25What do you expect his role to be in this Ravens offense this
03:28season and from night number one? I think it's going to be
03:32pretty consistent on a week to week basis, especially when we
03:34see the Ravens at home and they're, you know, large
03:37favorites on the spread. I will say if you like the Ravens plus
03:41three tonight as I do, there's probably a little bit of
03:43correlation we can find with Henry over rushing attempts
03:48because if they're going to be leading the game, they should
03:50be in a spot to at least run the ball a little bit. I'm not
03:52going to say I love that as one of my favorite bets for
03:54tonight's game. I think there's some other bets that I'll
03:56certainly be looking to but there's a little bit of
03:58correlation there. I think we can continue to look to
04:00Pacheco combined as well because we know he does play a good
04:04role in the passing game and again, if they are out in front,
04:06they will be rushing it. We know we can break off these big
04:08runs. So, you know, trying to find some easy stuff to start
04:11the season. A lot of fun bets here to get in which includes
04:14those wide receivers slash tight end props here,
04:16receptions. If we're looking at yardage wise, Rasheed Rice,
04:19the lead dog here tonight for Kansas City at sixty and a half
04:22receiving yards currently at the Fandul Sportsbook. If
04:24you're looking at the Baltimore Ravens here, Tom, it's Zay
04:26Flowers at fifty-three and a half. How do we approach the
04:30receivers tonight? Touchdown props, yardage props, reception
04:33props. How are we doing that? Well, for the Ravens, we
04:36actually can look at a lot of what they did last year because
04:38they're essentially returning the same crew, you know, in
04:41receiving receiving core, I should say, Andrews Flowers,
04:45Bateman out there. We know we're going to be getting from
04:47them. Justice Hill can come out of the backfield. I think Isaiah
04:49likely is always going to be an interesting option for the
04:51Chiefs. We know that Hollywood Brown is out for tonight.
04:54Obviously, drafting worthy that should replace that. So, a
04:58little bit of consistency from the Ravens. We can take that
05:00going forward and then the Chiefs are far more interesting
05:02because we know we have Kelsey and Rice like these top two
05:05options that we should see on a night-to-night basis but
05:07without Hollywood Brown, at least as of now, what are we
05:10going to be seeing from Worthy to start the season and then
05:12how do these three as of now work in the dynamic of one, two,
05:16three in terms of target share overall? Yeah, Vecchio, that
05:20was a key question last year for Kansas City. It explained
05:23the drop-off, frankly, offensively for the Chiefs
05:25throughout the regular season, a lack of production out of the
05:28wide receiver room. So, your focus is on the speedster out
05:32of Texas, Xavier Worthy, who ran the fastest 40-yard dash we've
05:36ever seen in the history of the NFL Combine at 4-2-1. What
05:41market do you think the rookie shines tonight in? Yeah, let's
05:45get things going early with a touchdown for him at plus 175.
05:51Like I said, no Hollywood Brown and when we're looking at Rice
05:53and Kelsey as really his only competition in terms of target
05:56share, this is the spot that I think we'll see him excel. Now,
05:59let's just pretend that Hollywood Brown, we know he'd
06:01be out for an extended period of time. Week to week, it
06:05wouldn't be a surprise to see Worthy as the number one option
06:08on every game, but on some games, I'm going to say he's,
06:11no pun intended, worthy of being the top target share guy
06:14on the Chiefs. We know the defense is not going to not be
06:17worried about Kelsey. So, one of the best numbers we could
06:19possibly get for Worthy, I think potentially for the entire
06:22season, I want to jump in early because if Hollywood Brown
06:26continues to be out, we're going to see Worthy drop to plus
06:29130, plus 120 if the Chiefs offense continues to roll. So,
06:32let's just jump in early right now, plus 175.
06:35Tom, how about an under here on the Baltimore Ravens? I know
06:37you're scoping out one of those wide receivers to not have a
06:40great game. Who is that and why?
06:42Yeah, that's Nelson Aguilar, under 14 and a half receiving
06:46yards. Like I said, they're returning essentially the same
06:49receiving goal from last year, last year at a 9.6% target
06:52share. It should be going to Flowers. It should be going to
06:55Mark Andrews. We know they always want to continue to
06:58develop Rashad Bateman. Justice Hill coming on the backfield,
07:01it's not going to be Derrick Henry catching passes. Then,
07:03like I said, Isaiah Likely is a good receiving option. So,
07:05at best, Nelson Aguilar is going to be, what, fourth
07:09target share? Probably fifth. So, he's not a receiver that's
07:13going to command eight or ten targets a game. It's going to
07:16be maybe three or four, and they're probably going to be
07:18short ADOT targets. So, Nelson Aguilar, under 14 and a half
07:22yards. It's not the most exciting bet to start the
07:23season, but he's not going to be a dominant receiver for the
07:26Ravens this year.
07:28A winning wager is an exciting bet, regardless of what it
07:32looks like. Is Rashad Bateman going to be healthy? Can we do
07:36the same song and dance for a very talented former first
07:40round pick out of Minnesota? You saw Patrick Mahomes, over
07:4437 and a half pass attempts tonight, as well to round out
07:47Tom's top props. He'll have plenty more on SportsGrid's
07:50coverage throughout the game. At halftime, the postgame recap
07:54with Casey Hudson, as well. But, Becky, let's go beyond the
07:58season opener tonight, or even this week one slate that
08:01continues Friday into the first full Sunday. You look at the
08:06Super Bowl odds entering 2024. What is your best bet, or maybe
08:11better said, which team do you believe provides the best value
08:15to get in on it right now before the season kicks off?
08:18So, a couple of notes here. One, I have the Texans at 25-1,
08:22which I bet back in April. The day they made the Diggs trade,
08:27I got in on that before the odds moved. But, as of now, I
08:30like the Falcons at 26-1. You know, I'm looking at a team
08:33that can potentially win their division. They have a shot at
08:36at least getting a first-round buy. It's not guaranteed,
08:38middle of the line is there, San Francisco, Philly, but there's
08:41a shot that they have home field advantage, which is always
08:43a plus. So, I'll take the Falcons up at 26-1.
08:47I like that look. 26-1. Becky O, just to follow up there,
08:51would the Falcons be, then, a team you are looking to cash
08:54out or hedge out with at a certain time, or do you think
08:56Kirk Cousins can lead the Dirty Birds to a Lombardi trophy?
09:00I would roll with the Falcons just for that price. They pick
09:02up a bunch of wins, they push to 11 or 12, and you could look
09:05to some options later in the season.
09:08Tom Vecchio, we will see you later all across the SportsGrid
09:11network on the opening night of the 2024 NFL season. Glad to
09:16have you here this year on the Spiz Grizz. Some more best bets
09:20for the Thursday night debut up next.
09:22The 2024 National Football League season starts tonight.
09:26The season debut in Kansas City at the home of the two-time
09:30reigning Super Bowl champion, Kansas City Chiefs, as they will
09:33host the Baltimore Ravens in an AFC title game rematch from a
09:38season ago. Kansas City went to Baltimore. They won outright as
09:42a four-and-a-half point underdog, 17-10. It was the first
09:46time in six consecutive trips to the AFC championship. The
09:50Chiefs were booked as an underdog and on the road. The
09:54Chiefs, a favorite back in Arrowhead tonight, laying three
09:57points against the flock, total at 46-and-a-half. Donny, we've
10:02been on this show, I mean, you've been on the show for
10:04about two hours and 45 minutes. I've been here for the better
10:07part of two hours, as you will be sitting there tonight on NFL
10:11football in-game live game day alongside Kevin Walsh and Joe
10:15Leesy, the PFT crew. What will your bets be? Where will you
10:20have your attention? Most of the time, I'm going to have it
10:23probably in prop bets tonight, and the reason I say that is
10:26through the first two weeks of the NFL season, it's always
10:28been this way for me. It's always tough to understand
10:30who's going to be the best team right out of the gate, and then
10:33by week three, you know, you might have a good game out of
10:35the gate, bad game week number two. You can sort of get that
10:37even flow out of the way, but having said that, bets for me
10:41on the sides, probably not tonight, but I do think the
10:42Kansas City Chiefs win this game. So if I were betting
10:45this game from a side perspective, minus three is the
10:48direction I would go. Now, the total itself, we'd have some,
10:50you know, good cappers on here as well and thought processes
10:53over the past two weeks. It doesn't look like a lot of
10:55people, and it's tough to say too, like Ravens Chiefs opening
10:57night, good weather right out of the gate. You should get
11:00close to 50 points, right? But a lot of people leaning towards
11:02the under, we can see that because the pathway to victory
11:04tonight, I don't think is the explosive play. It's getting
11:07first downs, moving the chains, eating the clock, setting up
11:10good field position. I think that's a recipe for success,
11:13particularly for the Ravens. So 46 and a half, pretty much a
11:16neutral there. Could go over, could go under for me, but from
11:19a side perspective, I do think the Chiefs win, but if we are
11:21looking more at that prop perspective range here, Ben, I
11:25tend to myself leaning towards the running backs. I do think
11:27Derrick Henry and Isaiah Pacheco, two great options to
11:30score in any time touchdown tonight, because as we brought
11:33up, the depth charts are very important. How many times do we
11:35see like, oh no, like, you know, Gibbs and Montgomery and
11:38Detroit, it's just who's in on the goal line here. You know
11:40who's going to be on the goal line for this football team.
11:42It's Pacheco for Kansas City, and it's going to be Derrick
11:44Henry for the Baltimore Ravens, and I am looking from a passing
11:48perspective. I do think some pretty good numbers get put up
11:50here, but for some reason, Ben, I keep gravitating over to the
11:53tight end setup here for the Baltimore Ravens, likely 15 and
11:56a half yards. He could get that on one reception, super
11:59athletic. Mark Andrews healthy to start the season. I think
12:02it's a great way to attack with Lamar Jackson here to go to
12:05their tight end set. So from a betting standpoint here, I
12:07don't have any official plays in the door just yet. We'll
12:10have a couple this afternoon and certainly on the game as we
12:12go through live, but that's sort of my game plan here.
12:15Running backs, running numbers out of the quarterbacks, tight
12:18ends on both sides. I think that's the way I might operate
12:20tonight, Ben. Yeah, the spread feels really good at three. It
12:24is that key number. It is flat at a field goal. Do not think
12:28it moves either which way entering the game. It would
12:31have to be a big bet or a huge sum of bets to get us up to
12:35three and a hook or down to two and a half, at least at this
12:39stage of the season. Debut 46 and a half is the number I go
12:43under. I don't think we're going to see a 17 to 10 game
12:45once again, but I do lean to the under from the trend
12:49perspective. Last year, Kansas City, an underdog four times,
12:52including the Super Bowl, including in the AFC
12:55championship game and under Patrick Mahomes as the starting
12:59quarterback since 2018. The Chiefs have been a favorite in
13:02all but 16 games as a home favorite in that span 2727 and
13:09three against the spread. Baltimore has been an
13:12incredible underdog with Lamar Jackson, twelve and two
13:15against the number when booked as a dog and with John Harbaugh
13:18who took over the reins in 2008 61.8% is the cover
13:24percentage for the flock in that span now going on at 17
13:28season. Only the Steelers have a better cover percentage as an
13:32underdog in that same time frame. Baltimore last year,
13:36two and one straight up and against the number as an
13:39underdog in 2023. I also focus on props first and foremost. I
13:44think early on you have a couple more edges there into
13:47the very sharp betting thing. That is the National Football
13:51League and I also go to the tight ends. I think you can
13:54make an argument for two of my favorite props being on each of
13:58the two tight ends that will start tonight. Travis Kelsey
14:01over five and a half receptions. He had eleven in
14:04the AFC title game. We laid out DRS throughout the post
14:07season. Travis Kelsey and Patrick Mahomes how prolific
14:11they have been in post seasons together and a lot was made
14:14about Travis Kelsey's lack of production throughout the
14:17regular season under five and a half grabs and for the final
14:21regular season games, but still in the fifteen that he played
14:24last year and don't forget he didn't play in the season
14:26opener. So we know he's chomping at the bit tonight a
14:28season ago at least against Detroit. He still went over
14:31five and a half grabs in nine of the fifteen regular season
14:34games. He was still by far Mahomes his favorite target
14:38121 targets Rashid Rice had the second most at 102. I like
14:44Kelsey over five and a half receptions. I like Mark Andrews
14:47over 48 and a half receiving yards. He is healthy now. Yes,
14:51there was the scare of the car accident that sidelined him
14:54from practice. Not all that long ago during Ravens training
14:57camp, but in the nine games that he played a season ago that
15:00he was fully healthy for over 48 and a half five times. I
15:06still think he he's Lamar Jackson's favorite target. I
15:09believe the tight ends are still the top target for both
15:12quarterbacks. That's how I would look at the prop perspective
15:15of this game. Absolutely and also let's have the fun here.
15:18We also have an a boost tonight here that's going to be 450
15:22yards combined between both quarterbacks tonight. That's
15:25boosted from a minus price to a plus price. I'll certainly be
15:28on that, but one of my favorite markets out of the game
15:30specials featured market. You can't go wrong with this each
15:34team tonight to score a rushing touchdown and a passing
15:37touchdown. It's plus 250. I just told you, but check is
15:40going to get the goal line carries Henry's going to get
15:42the goal line carries. I would be shocked if each one of these
15:45teams doesn't run it in and that leaves it up to is each one
15:48of these quarterbacks going to throw one touchdown pass a
15:50piece and also keep in mind the reason why we love these bets.
15:53How many times have your profits been ruined by injuries
15:56to start the game? This isn't players here. So if Lamar
15:59Jackson and we never want to see this happen goes down with
16:01the injury in the first quarter. You still get to
16:03continue this bet with the backup quarterback. Same thing
16:05with the running backs and like there as well. So I love that
16:08plus 250 each team rushing and receiving. I think it's going
16:12to get done tonight. It's going to be rushing and passing as a
16:14touchdown plus 250. Love it. 23 and a half is that first half
16:19total Donnie. I'm going to give my NFL awards on the other side
16:23of the break. Yeah, give mine yours by the way. Yeah. Here
16:26are yours run through them very quickly flash up the graphics
16:28so everybody can see go. There you go. Alright. CJ Strel, let
16:32me read them for myself as well. CJ Stroud 12 to 1 Tyreek
16:36offensive player of the year. Miles Garrett, Taylor Williams,
16:38Jared versus injury. Put them any way you want. We're all
16:40going to win.