NFL 2024: AFC West Win Totals and Expectations | Futures Bets
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00:00Who in total Tuesday live right here on the early line on
00:09SportsGrid and all across the Spiz Grizz network 28 of 32
00:14NFL teams by the end of today will have reported to training
00:19camp in full only four more teams we wait on tomorrow, but
00:24all four teams in the AFC West have now shown up for training
00:29camp. It's a division Donnie right side that has been
00:32absolutely dominated by the Kansas City Chiefs eight
00:36straight AFC West divisional crowns for KC over the last
00:41eight NFL seasons in based on the odds. That's what we expect
00:47this year as well. Minus 230 the Chiefs 11 and a half to win
00:51total plus 350 to win the AFC yet again, of course, Kansas
00:56City has won the AFC four of the previous five seasons, but
01:01there is some interesting storylines entering the AFC West
01:05Jim Harbaugh. It is his first year in Los Angeles the
01:09commander of the Chargers. Now the leader of the bolts eight
01:13and a half to win total for LA Antonio Pierce the former
01:17interim head coach in the desert. Now the permanent head
01:20man for Las Vegas six and a half though the win total for
01:24the Raiders. Can they use their inspiration of Antonio Pierce
01:28to end out last year for a successful 2024 campaign and
01:33the Denver Broncos bring up the rear after a disastrous
01:36two-year run under Russell Wilson in Denver. It's year number
01:40two for Sean Payton as the head man in the Mile High City to
01:44figure things out but five and a half to win total for the
01:48Broncos and it's not an overly optimistic picture this season
01:52in Denver. What is your overall evaluation DRS of the AFC West
01:57at 3 2024? It's pretty simple. Two of the teams have really
02:01good quarterbacks. That's the Kansas City Chiefs in the Los
02:03Angeles Chargers. The other two teams the Raiders and the
02:06Broncos don't have very good quarterback. So that's where
02:08you see the separation here at the famed little sports book
02:11at the Raiders at a nine to one price to win that division
02:13the Denver Broncos at a 20 to one price to win the division,
02:16but let's focus here on Kansas City and I can't stress this
02:20enough. You're not supposed to be good for a long time in
02:23the NFL because just based on how the NFL evolution is, you
02:26know, most players don't play 10 to 15 years outside of
02:30dominant quarterbacks, which again is Patrick Holmes, but
02:32players slow down. The salary cap is supposed to catch up
02:35with you each and every year that you have a good season.
02:38The NFL says, okay, congratulations on your good season.
02:40We'll set you up with the hardest schedule next year and
02:42also give you the worst draft pick of the first round second
02:44round third round and so forth, but the Kansas City Chiefs
02:47continue to buck that trend and last year was the year to
02:50beat the Kansas City Chiefs didn't have any wide receivers.
02:52They just had Patrick Holmes and Andy Reed. They didn't have
02:55home field advantage entering into the playoffs. Then you
02:57go on the road and beat a Buffalo Bills team and a Baltimore
02:59Ravens team and then go in and probably face the most talented
03:01team in the NFL the San Francisco 49ers without any wide
03:05receivers that you can say or maybe a Pro Bowl caliber level
03:09in the next couple years. Now they reamped up you go into
03:11the draft. You get yourself a wide receiver. You get that
03:14free agency get yourself a wide receiver and now you still
03:17have Patrick Holmes and Andy Reed. So this year is a better
03:20version of last year's Kansas City Chiefs that won the Super
03:24Bowl. So you're not again. I say this as a handicapped has
03:27been doing it a long time. You're not supposed to do this,
03:29but how many times can you continue to look at the Kansas
03:32City Chiefs with a healthy Patrick Holmes and not honestly
03:35believe they're the best team in the NFL. They don't have the
03:37best team overall. They have Mahomes and Reed and a supporting
03:41cast. That's good enough for me. They'll win this division
03:44and they'll run away with this division.
03:47If you don't want to bet minus 230 at the moment, I understand
03:52it. If you don't want to eat the chalk and bet the shortest
03:54price to win the AFC or a Super Bowl plus 350 to win the
03:59conference a six to one number to win Super Bowl 59. I guess
04:03I understand but based on history Kansas City with a healthy
04:08Patrick Mahomes is going to at least play in the AFC
04:12championship six years with Mahomes as the starter dating
04:15back to the start of 2018. Casey has played in the AFC title
04:20game up until last year. Kansas City had hosted the AFC
04:24championship game in Arrowhead. That was one of the question
04:27marks around Mahomes is postseason resume. Could he win on
04:31the road? He goes to Buffalo. They knock off the bills. He
04:34goes to Baltimore. They knock off the Ravens. They win their
04:37third Super Bowl in the last five years. No team has ever
04:42won three consecutive Lombardi trophies in the history of
04:46the National Football League. So I get maybe some hesitation
04:49in betting Kansas City's price to win it all once again, but
04:54I think the idea Donnie that Kansas City falls off that the
04:58Chiefs do not win the AFC West or factor in the postseason.
05:03This is the year you predict Casey to go eight and nine or
05:06nine and eight more than likely not going to happen because
05:10in the six seasons with Mahomes as the starter only last year
05:15was the year. They did not win 12 regular season games at
05:19fair minimum. They finished with 11 under the wind total
05:22entering 2024 of 11 and a half, but the over has the slight
05:27bit of juice for Kansas City. And I think the idea Donnie
05:31that the Chiefs would not stand atop the perch of the AFC
05:33West once again might have been an enticing conversation
05:38entering 2022 or maybe even last year in 2023. Not so much
05:44this year because who's going to hold Casey back from that
05:48top spark spot. Is it Jim Harbaugh in his first year in
05:52LA? Is it the Broncos with a wind total of five and a half
05:56and a rookie quarterback under Sean Payton more than likely
06:00in Bo Nicks? Is it the Raiders with Antonio Pierce? The
06:04Chiefs should make it a perfect nine for nine in terms of
06:07divisional titles within the AFC West. Absolutely. And they
06:11will again as long as you have a crystal ball and I don't
06:14care who else is playing for the Chiefs other than Patrick
06:17Mahomes. If he plays 17 games this year, there is no way
06:21that the Chiefs are not going to win that division. You might
06:24have had a different argument out of me because obviously
06:26when you have a regime change, like we saw with the Chargers,
06:28I think they finally got the coach that's going to be able
06:31to help them compete over the next couple years. That's the
06:33key term over the next couple years. He's rebuilding that
06:36franchise. He didn't come in and say, you know what? This
06:38team is really talented. Let me do a one-year evaluation.
06:41Give me those same players. Let me see if I can turn up the
06:43gas because you have the wide receivers. You have the
06:45running backs. Now, you completely flipped it on a head
06:47where Harbaugh's instilling what he wants out of the future,
06:50which usually doesn't equate to success right out of the
06:53gate. I do believe that Herbert is going to be a very good
06:55quarterback over the length of his career, but I do think
06:57he has to understand what Harbaugh wants out of him and
07:00also getting that roster what Harbaugh wants that to be over
07:03the next couple years. And again, the NFL, you can have a
07:05quick rebuild. You might have a decent season this year.
07:07The next year, maybe the Chargers will be looking towards
07:10Super Bowl contenders. The Vegas Raiders. Come on.
07:12Gardner Minshew is going to lead that. We already know how
07:14unhappy probably, you know, Devontae is going to be out
07:17there immediately. If they start the season, 1-4, 1-5 is
07:21going to look to try to get out of town. If you take a look
07:23at the Denver Broncos, complete rebuild mode. So this isn't
07:25what we anticipated over the past couple years. Like, hey
07:28man, Chargers are really good. Vegas got a decent vibe. The
07:31Denver Broncos at Russell Wilson, they can challenge the
07:33Chiefs. This might be one of the easiest years for the
07:35Chiefs to win that division, which again, it's so Patriots
07:39like here, Forest Bend. The reason I bring them up is how
07:41many times do we see an easy division to win? Like, come
07:44on, man. Somebody at least challenge him. They get six
07:46free wins every single year in the division. Of course,
07:49they're going to be a one or two seed every single year.
07:51That's what you're going to get once again out of the Chiefs.
07:53Just by default, they should win 12 games and be possibly
07:57another number one seed this year, home at Arrowhead for
08:00the holidays. DRS, you would expect Kansas City having won
08:05the Super Bowl for a second consecutive season, the Chiefs
08:08being the notable team around the NFL. The schedule would
08:12be difficult with that first place landmark. Not necessarily
08:17the case. Warren Sharpe, our lead NFL analyst here on
08:20SportsGrid and his analytical team does a great job of
08:23predicting strength of schedule based on your opponent's
08:26projections, their win totals for the upcoming year, all
08:30the things that are used, the handicap games and the odds
08:33makers used to set lines, rest advantage, disadvantage,
08:37travel, all of that good stuff. The Chiefs, the 12th easiest
08:40schedule in the National Football League. We'll talk about
08:43the Bolts a little bit later on. The Chargers have the
08:46second easiest schedule in the NFL according to Sharpe
08:51Football Analytics and Jim Harbaugh is a winner. He is
08:56a program. He is an organization builder. Eight and a half
09:00is the total for Los Angeles. The over a slight bit of juice.
09:05Can the Chargers have a winning record in 2024 and would
09:09nine wins be enough to be an AFC playoff team? We'll have
09:13that debate a little bit later on to end out our second
09:16hour. Win total Tuesday resumes live right here on the
09:20early line on SportsGrid. He's Donnie. I am Ben. We talked
09:23about the Chiefs. Minus 230 to win the AFC West, the best
09:27for any team to win any division in all of the eight around
09:31the National Football League. KC 11 and a half is the win
09:35total. They have won at least 11 games in the last six
09:38years. They have played in the AFC championship game each
09:41of the last six seasons. They have hosted the AFC title game
09:44five of the six years. They have won the AFC West eight
09:48consecutive seasons, of course, three Super Bowls in the
09:50last five years, so on and so forth. But what about the
09:53other teams then in the AFC West? Can they contend for
09:57the division? More than likely not. Can they make some noise
10:00maybe in a wild-card race? I think our focus in that conversation
10:05DRS is on Jim Harbaugh in his first year in Los Angeles
10:09at the helm of the Bulls. Eight and a half to win total
10:11for the Chargers. The over has the hefty juice at minus
10:14154. What do you expect LA to do in year one under Harbaugh?
10:20Be competitive in every game. Like I'm not going to watch
10:23games down the stretch where the Chargers have a 24-21
10:26game, 24-17 game where they had the leader behind to falter
10:30in those instances. That's the one thing that we've always
10:32brought up here for the Chargers. Let's just say the past
10:3510 years or so. It was the head coach not having this talented
10:39roster ready to play in every moment of the game, which
10:41means, hey, they look good one game. Boy, how could they
10:44blow that late? They can't find a field goal kicker to
10:46make a field goal. They're making dumb decisions late.
10:48Hey, we can get ourselves in the playoffs if we just play
10:50for the tire as opposed to harass the Raiders who can
10:53actually knock us out of the playoffs. You can't have that
10:56stuff. And Harbaugh is going to have this team motivated
10:58from day number one. Now, are they as talented as what we
11:01saw in the past couple years? Probably not at this point,
11:03but there's still some players over there. Pro Bowl caliber,
11:06particularly on that defense with Mack and Bosa and Samuel
11:09Junior at the cornerback position, but also take a look
11:12at the offense. It starts and ends with your quarterback.
11:16And we think Justin Herbert is a sensational quarterback.
11:19You figure Harbaugh will get him to the next level. I just
11:22don't know if we have the wide receiver talent just yet
11:25in order to do that and how likely it's going to come
11:28together before the season starts. They will be competitive
11:31this year. A chance of the playoffs. Yes, a chance of the
11:34win of the day, the division itself. Absolutely not. But
11:37this is the start of that trajectory that we expect to
11:40see in two to three years. The Chargers continuously going
11:43to be mentioned as Super Bowl contenders. I do believe that.
11:47Yeah, absolutely. So right that is what we expect Jim
11:51Harbaugh to take the reins for the bolts and in two years
11:54time, put them into a conference contention and that
11:58position first year in San Francisco with the 49ers way
12:01back in 2011. They won 13 games. They were 13 and three
12:06the next year. They won the NFC played his brother John
12:10in a Super Bowl. Of course in 2012 12 and for the following
12:14year in 2013 8 and 8 in his final year before he returned
12:18to his alma mater in Ann Arbor to take over for Michigan,
12:22whether it's been the FCS level back at San Diego or
12:25Stanford when he reinvigorated a long dormant football
12:28program or in San Francisco with the 49ers or back. Of
12:32course with the Maize and Blue in Ann Arbor Jim Harbaugh
12:38wins. He just wins and there will be a chance for LA. I
12:43think to contend for a playoff spot not in minus money to
12:48make the postseason at the moment, but a plus money price
12:52for the LA Chargers to be a play off team this year. I
12:57think that would be something for LA in their first year
13:01under Jim Harbaugh plus 118 that definitive number on the
13:05bolts to see the postseason. We'll talk about the Raiders
13:08and the Broncos a little bit later on but DRS there were
13:12no other teams outside of Kansas City that finished above
13:15500 last year. The Raiders of the Broncos actually tied
13:19for the second best record both at 8 and 9 Las Vegas under
13:23Antonio Pierce. He was their guy last year. You could feel
13:27the fervor they played for with Antonio their interim head
13:31coach got him to be named the permanent head man. What will
13:34the Raiders do this year having a win total of six and a
13:37half? They got some talent, but they just don't have the
13:40quarterback like if it's going to be O'Connell like you're
13:43just giving up on the season and I understand Gardner
13:45Minshew can be that veteran presence and they'll probably
13:48be a better football team. But sometimes you do have to have
13:50that eye on the future. Like what's best for your franchise
13:53to go in with O'Connell and say, you know what? I think
13:55he has some talent. He still might be on that learning curve,
13:58but we got to get him through to evaluate or to just go out
14:00and say, hey Gardner Minshew when it's maybe an extra game
14:03or two, which might get us into the playoffs, but doesn't
14:05really help us in the future of knowing where our quarterbacks
14:08are actually going because again getting back to it. There
14:10is talent there. But if you don't have the quarterback
14:12going up against Patrick Mahomes, you're not going to
14:14be competitive in the division. It's going to be interesting
14:16to see what the Raiders do five, six, seven games in and
14:19also Devontae Adams. If he starts screaming, he wants out
14:22then we just go into a complete rebuild at that point.