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00:00The tradition lives on here on this Thursday on the early line
00:04on SportsGrid. It is Skeen's Day number 11 in the history of
00:09Major League Baseball and who better to break down a Paul
00:12Skeen start than the guy that called multiple of them at the
00:16AAA level in Indianapolis. That is Jack McMullin. Jack, we
00:21appreciate you joining us here once again for a second
00:24straight segment on the early line on SportsGrid. Interesting
00:28set so far in the midweek between the Broncos and the
00:31Brewers in Milwaukee. Pittsburgh won the first game
00:3412-2. Milwaukee responded in a big way yesterday. Day
00:39baseball in the state of Wisconsin for Skeen's Day number
00:4311 in Roman numerals. That's XI. In the Pirates, a road
00:49favorite in Milwaukee. What can we expect out of Paul Skeen's
00:53today against the Brewers? What are you expecting other than
00:57utter domination, which is what he's given you in his
01:00first 10 Major League starts. There was a stretch of two
01:03straight starts where he allowed Alita Homer and that
01:06was it. Like he is pound for pound. I think the best pitcher
01:10in Major League Baseball right now. He's the most talented
01:13pitcher in Major League Baseball and the fact that he
01:15has pitch ability to go along with that is insane. I know
01:20record doesn't really matter, but he's 5-0 in his first 10
01:25starts. That tells you that his presence alone gets the
01:29offense fired up and they give him enough. Now he does have
01:33five no decisions, but he's not getting beaten and chances are
01:36the Pirates are leveling up for him. This guy is absolutely
01:41amazing and I think I've told you guys before every day before
01:46his start every every pre start meal is chicken Alfredo for
01:50him. Day games are a little weird because instead of a
01:53socially acceptable time to eat chicken Alfredo for 7 PM
01:57for hey, I'll have my chicken Alfredo at 230. He's having it
02:01at nine and he's not going to adjust because why would you
02:05adjust when you're pound for pound the best pitcher on the
02:07planet right now? He's been tremendous and if you include
02:11him in Major League Baseball over the past 60 days, other
02:13pitchers like the numbers, I love the X minus number of 59,
02:16which is sensational. We see the ERA at a 2.12 the X number
02:20at a 2.34. He has been tremendous, which brings me to
02:23my next point here. You take a look at him for the NL rookie
02:26of the year. It's a minus 350 price Cy Young at a 50 to one
02:29price. We know the Pittsburgh Pirates probably aren't going
02:32to factor into the postseason this year. Give me the thought
02:34process Jack heading down the stretch where you know he might
02:37be involved in the Cy Young Award. He obviously is going to
02:40be involved in the rookie of the year. Do the Pittsburgh
02:42Pirates let him go or do you say look we're worried about
02:45your career here the innings on your arm. Let's get to the
02:47offseason. How does it play out in Pittsburgh in your mind this
02:50year? I think they did a lot of proactive planning and you saw
02:54him heavily protected in AAA when he was throwing like his
02:57season debut. He went three innings and it was nine up nine
03:00down. I think it was five punch outs, but like he wasn't going
03:03past the nine hitter in that he was going to see a lineup first
03:06time through and that was it. He was working on five days rest
03:09unlike the typical, you know, four day rest schedule at the
03:12Major League level. He is gone on five days rest more often
03:17than on four days rest at the big league level to this point
03:19as well. I think they've done a really good job of proactively
03:24kind of delaying him out of the starting gate. Their other guy
03:28Jared Jones. I mean like they're kind of suspension
03:31bridging him right now and I know that he just hit the IL,
03:33but I mean this kind of works seamlessly with an innings
03:36limitation that they may have had. It's unfortunate that you
03:40know, the IL needed to be involved there, but you know
03:43hoping that he feels healthy very soon, but they probably
03:46would have scaled him back, you know close to right now
03:49because he's tracking to blow by his career high in innings.
03:53There are a bunch of guys like that. There are a bunch of
03:55young starters like that in Major League Baseball. I think
03:58you may see a couple of abbreviated turns from skeins
04:01in August, but in September like don't expect skeins to be
04:05sitting out of start. He's going to start games in
04:07September. Jack, I'm going to ask you two questions first
04:11very quick. I just want a one word answer and then secondly
04:13on the 2024 MLB draft first question on Paul skeins. Is he
04:18going to be the National League starter for the All-Star
04:20game on Tuesday in Arlington? You can't do this to me. No,
04:25no. Jack doesn't even believe in his guys. That's what we're
04:30going to clip. Well, we're going to go off. Yep. We're
04:33going to send it right to him. No, I believe in my guys. I
04:37believe in seniority as well. Chris Sale's been really good.
04:40I believe in seniority. Okay. Fair enough. Secondly, Sunday
04:45night 2024 MLB draft Travis Bazzana out of Oregon State.
04:49The Australian who batted 407 this year for the Beavs is the
04:54odds on favor to go first overall. Do you agree? No, I
05:00don't arm Layton who's my car hosted just baseball put
05:03together a mock draft and I think he made a perfect point
05:06that this could turn into a money game. They have ten and a
05:09half million dollars to play with as the slot value for one
05:12JJ Weatherholt may be under slot. JJ Weatherholt the
05:16shortstop second baseman out of West Virginia. I named the
05:19one. Jack McMohan as always. Thank you. More TEL next. One
05:24final time before the All-Star break in MLB. It's time for
05:29the daily bases.
05:35Oh, no sound. That is always the game that we have to play
05:39each and every day. As we touch them all, we head to
05:42first base. Craig, yesterday, I asked you, when would the field
05:46fill out for the MLB Home Run Derby on Monday night in
05:50Arlington? We get our answer. Welcome in our Ardoliz Garcia,
05:56excuse me, and Teoscar Hernandez as well. The full
06:01field of eight is filled. Craig, what do you make of all
06:05eight hitters? We will see on Monday night with you in
06:08attendance in right field. Yeah, I guess there's just not
06:12going to be a lot of home runs there as it turns out. So shame
06:16on me. I guess I'll be rooting for Gunner Henderson. Maybe
06:18Jose Ramirez will hit lefty. Yeah, this is the one thing
06:21that if I was major league baseball, sorta gotta be a
06:24little critical. I mean, I think you gotta try and find a
06:27couple of left-handed hitters to hit in this home run derby.
06:30If Gunner Henderson gets knocked out right away, every
06:32single ball and every single camera shot is the same. No
06:35one's going oppo to right field. But that being said,
06:38look, I don't have a I don't have a final opinion on the
06:40field yet. What I would say is I think Adoliz Garcia when it
06:43comes out is gonna be one of the favorites. Those guys never
06:46do well in front of the home crowd. So don't get sucked into
06:48that. That would be my advice going into Monday night. I
06:52probably would reach a little toward Pete Alonzo again. Just
06:54so much experience doing this. I feel like he's gotta have a
06:57great shot to win. Yeah, it should be fun to watch it play
07:01out but you're right. Maybe they just change it up here on
07:03the fly. Craig can go opposite field home runs where two home
07:06runs as opposed to one. Certainly filling up those
07:08seats out there in right field. So maybe we can make some of
07:10those changes. I'll tell you one guy that's been pretty
07:12impressive and reaching the seats. Reese Hines of the
07:15Cincinnati Reds. 6-4, 2-15, two bombs already in his young
07:19career. Multiple RBI. What are we looking at? Because we
07:22always love when some of these up and comers hit the major
07:24league scene and have success right away. Reese Hines looks
07:27the part right now. Yeah, and we saw him participate in a
07:31home run derby as a amateur at a high school several years
07:35ago and which one I'm not sure. I don't recall but I was there
07:38when he did it. So, you know, for Hines, you look at a lot of
07:42the statistics for the minor league players this year and
07:45you wonder like why Hines even got called up because his
07:48numbers are down from where they were a year ago but
07:50universally speaking, that's kind of what's going on in
07:52baseball at the major league and minor league level. A lot
07:55of players numbers are just down this year and whether it's
07:57the baseball or better pitching, I'm not really sure
07:59but if you go back and look at the stats from 2 years ago,
08:02then he would deserve a call up. The only thing that I'd be
08:04concerned with with Hines is again, very good success
08:08initially. Video will come out. They'll figure out which
08:11tendencies he has and he is a high strikeout guy. So, if you
08:15remember last year, let's just use the Reds as an example.
08:17They call a belly to the Cruz hot right away. You know, kind
08:21of got softer as the season went on, striking out a little
08:23bit more. Probably the same thing will happen to Reese
08:25Hines but for now, you ride the wave. Three total games for
08:29Hines and his MLB career hit a home run in each of his first
08:33two. Both traveling more than 440 feet and five extra base
08:37knocks in his first two career games. The first to ever do
08:40that in first in their first two career games in Major League
08:44Baseball history. Brooks Lee by the way, for the Minnesota
08:47Twins, his second home run yesterday to start the comeback
08:50for Minnesota over Chicago. Two homers in eight MLB games.
08:55The young rooks that have been on display the past week
08:58looking pretty good. The focus of Major League Baseball
09:01throughout the all-star break will be in Arlington, the home
09:04of the reigning World Series champs, the Texas Rangers. Now,
09:08the Angels did win the third and final game of their midweek
09:11set against Texas yesterday. Seven to two to avoid the sweep
09:15in Anaheim but the Rangers in July, nine games. They have won
09:20six of those nine. Still five games below 500. Greg, after
09:25the all-star break, what do you think the remainder of the
09:27year holds for the reigning World Series champs? Yeah, it's
09:30funny. It's been the industry meaning that like the people
09:33that I speak to a lot and just kind of talk about different
09:35things this time of the year seem to think the Rangers are
09:39going to get hot at some point in the second half of the
09:41season and not to count them out. Now, we really have seen
09:44no indication of that in the first half but I suppose you
09:47would hold out hope to say, hey, look, you know, this is a
09:50really good team over the course of all last season. They
09:52have more or less the same players back but in the end, I
09:55know they're going to get Scherzer and you know, they're
09:57going to get the Grom hypothetically back and
09:59probably better from Uvalde and some of the other pitchers but
10:01I mean, hitting is what got them to the postseason last
10:04year and I know hitting is down across the board. Maybe that is
10:07what's doomed them this year. The ball, who knows but Ben,
10:11they've got to hit in the second half in order to get
10:13back there. Paul Schoen's day today. Craig missed taking on
10:16Aaron Savali and how about this? The Pittsburgh Pirates are
10:19a favorite on the road. Why? Because yes, Paul Schoen's has
10:22been tremendous so far this season. A minus 120 favorite.
10:25What can we anticipate out of Paul Schoen's today going up
10:28against the Brew Crew? Yeah, as we've seen, the Pirates are in
10:33or winning virtually every start that he's in but the
10:36strikeout, what is the strikeout prop today? I should
10:39have looked right before the show. I'm going to guess seven
10:41and a half, something like that. Yeah, I'm going to guess
10:43seven and a half, somewhere along those lines. Seven and a
10:47half, the over has the juice, Craig. Minus 130. There you go.
10:50There's your play. It's like, it's like clockwork. They can't
10:54make it high enough and that's juice. That's great. You know,
10:57think about the seven and a half. I think the last game, it
10:59was seven and a half also but it was minus 105 or 110. He's
11:03going to have strikeout props of eight soon. You got to play
11:06the over. You got to do it. Eight plus Ks, four skeins and
11:10six of his last seven starts and the only one under seven
11:14strikeouts. Craig Mish. Yeah. Safe travels to Arlington in
11:18the MLB All-Star break. We'll talk to you late next week.
11:21More on the early lineup next. We'll continue our baseball
11:25breakdowns for a twelve-game slate on a Thursday. That's a
11:28lot of games for a Thursday around Major League Baseball in
11:31just a moment. We'll go game by game. We'll give you best bets.
11:35We'll find you some plays but we only have four more days of
11:39this first half before the All-Star break begins at the
11:43conclusion of games on Sunday night. So, how about some
11:47midseason specials that are available on the FanDuel
11:52Sportsbook? Here are a couple of our favorites. Can Aaron
11:55Judge rival what he did 2 years ago with sixty-two long balls
11:59to set the American League record? Sixty-plus home runs is
12:03plus 250. To break his own mark at sixty-three, that plus 450.
12:09To lead in all of the major stat categories, batting
12:13average, RBIs, and homers, and win the Triple Crown, that's
12:17plus 870. The only issue, Donny, and I don't know if you
12:20know this because at the time, you weren't working with our
12:22producer Joe Frizzo on a daily basis. When Aaron Judge was
12:26trying to break Roger Maris' record, Roger Maris Jr. was in
12:30the spotlight at all the games down the stretch. Nobody in
12:34this world that Joe Frizzo hates more than Roger Maris Jr.
12:37Which means, if Aaron Judge gets close to those plus money
12:40prices, our producer Joe's gonna be really upset. Well,
12:44why? Does that mean that, again, that same family's gonna
12:47be following him around for what apparent reason at this
12:50point? Like, why would he be reaching into his own pocket?
12:53It should be Aaron Judge's family, right? Because I'm
12:55running out of money. Exactly, correct. Yes. So, I guess the
12:59question then would be how mad would college football fans get
13:02again if they start doing cut-ins during college football
13:05games as the Yankees are playing in the month of
13:08September? What home run ceiling do you think Aaron
13:11Judge hits this year? You know, it's funny you bring that up
13:15too because he's having a sensational season. And if you
13:18look at right now, 32 home runs. So, if he just says, oh,
13:20we're at a halfway point. Yeah, he should get 65 home runs.
13:23That's not always the case because we don't know that that
13:25player is going to be playing every single day. And I
13:28understand it's not fair and you can't just factor in. Well,
13:31we know Aaron Judge typically gets injured at some point
13:33here. That toe is going to flare up but that's a real
13:35thing at this point. And also, if you're looking at that
13:38Yankees lineup right now and saying to yourself, well, the
13:41only guys you don't want to have beat you right now
13:43technically would be Soto and Judge. Maybe Soto doesn't see
13:47as many pitches. Maybe Aaron Judge doesn't see as many
13:50pitches as you might in the past at this point. So, for my
13:52money here and also, we're not talking about he hits 60 plus
13:55home runs and it's a minus 175 price. It's still a really nice
13:59plus money number. Sure. So, you are getting that dog price
14:02which means it's supposed to be harder to get to and
14:05technically, he's not supposed to get there. I'm not betting
14:07against Aaron Judge. I'm just betting against the
14:10circumstances around Aaron Judge meaning that he may get
14:14injured and a week's time off here, that could be the
14:16difference here and also heading down the stretch of
14:19the season. If he truly is dominating in the box like we
14:22think he probably will be, is he going to get enough pitches
14:24to hit to hit set home runs? So, just being a handicapper
14:28here, I would fade it but not again fading because Aaron
14:30Judge is going to end up hitting 275 on the season when
14:33he's hitting 307 now and he just can't get out of his own
14:35way. I expect Aaron Judge to have a very good season. I just
14:38don't know if the opportunities been are going to be there for
14:41him to hit the mid 60s or so. After the Yanks first game in
14:45the month of July, he was batting 321. He has cooled down
14:49a little bit to 307. Still one of the top ten best batting
14:52averages in all of the bigs but in eight games for Judge in
14:55July, he's really cooled down with the long ball. Only one
14:58home run. So, thirty-two homers in ninety-four games. He's not
15:03necessarily on pace to hit at least 60 this year and with
15:07Steven Kwan now being eligible beating the innings
15:10requirements, he's batting 361. That's a lot for Aaron Judge to
15:15catch in the triple crown race. Similar question for Shohei
15:18Otani. Trey Turner's batting 345 but not eligible as of yet.
15:23Christian Yelich now eligible 335 for Milwaukee. Don't think
15:27Shohei gets to those numbers as well. Paul Skeen's day number
15:31eleven as of this Thursday on the road in Milwaukee. 175
15:37strikeouts for a guy that has 78 in his first ten starts of
15:41his MLB career. Plus 196 is the number enticing enough to bet.
15:47It is enticing. Now, also, we just had Jack talking to us
15:50about Paul Skeen's. If I could actually get that honest
15:53information that says, by the way, Pittsburgh is not going to
15:55sit him at all. If he's healthy, he will pitch right
15:57through that first week of October. Obviously, we don't
15:59think the Pirates are going to make the playoffs. Then, yes, I
16:01would bet that here. It's just hard for me to tell myself that
16:05if he is pitching well and the Pirates go, well, why would we
16:07waste an extra sixteen to twenty innings on this kid's
16:10arm and just shuts him down? That's a tough pill to swallow
16:13because he should be able to get there. We just don't know and
16:16again, it's like Aaron Judge. It's not going to be Paul
16:18Skeen's fault as if he breaks down as a terrible pitcher.
16:21Yeah. It just may be out of his hands due to what the
16:23organization thinks is in his best interest. It is a really
16:27good point. Jack has a little bit more intimate knowledge, of
16:30course, being a part of that organization, not in the daily
16:34decisions. The MLB club makes, of course. Now, we'll go around
16:37the twelve-game slate on this Thursday. Major League
16:41Baseball, Donnie's Baseball Breakdown set. Will it be a
16:44sweep today in Philadelphia for the marquee matchup this week
16:48in Major League Baseball between the Phillies and the
16:52Dodgers? The Phillies won game one, ten to one. The Phillies
16:55won game two, four to three. 606 PM Eastern time to start
17:00tonight and the Phillies, the strongest favorite we have seen
17:03so far, minus 152 to knock off the Dodgers today. Total at
17:08nine and a half. Aaron Noah gets the start for the Phillies.
17:12Will it be a perfect three for three for Philadelphia today at
17:16the bank? It really should. You saw yesterday, a left-handed
17:19pitcher on the mound who was a very good one in Christopher
17:21Sanchez. Have a nice performance against the Dodgers
17:23and the Dodgers. As we told you over the past 30 days, we're
17:26really hitting the baseball well off left-handed pitchers
17:29against right-handed pitchers. A little bit of a different tune
17:31here. Ohtani, great numbers. Will Smith, great numbers.
17:34Freddie Freeman, great numbers over the past month. The rest
17:37of the guys leave a lot to be desired and Aaron Noah at home
17:40should be able to do the task. If we are taking a look over the
17:43past 60 days without taking a look at like home and road
17:45splits here, you look at Aaron Noah, a 79 XFIT minus and an
17:49ERA of 3.34 with an XFIT of 3.15. That's going to do the
17:53job. Flip it over to the other side on the Dodgers and for a
17:55team that's favored to win the World Series, sending out guys
17:59that the average person has no idea who they are on the mound.
18:02Landon Knack probably fits that mold. His last 56 batters, Ben,
18:06combined power number of 283. Look at this Phillies lineup.
18:10Seven of nine guys with high weighted on base percentages
18:13against right-handed pitching over the past 30 days. That
18:16Schwarber, Turner, Harper, Boehm, Castellanos, Marsh, and
18:19Marchand and also keep in mind, 88 degree temperatures, muggy
18:23again in the city of brotherly love, 10 mile an hour winds
18:26blowing out to right field. The Phillies should once again be
18:29able to handle their business and complete a sweep against
18:32the Dodgers, which is incredible. Landon Knack, 34
18:36and two-thirds innings this year for the young man out of
18:40Johnson City, Tennessee. Sing a little wagon wheel for Landon
18:44Knack today. One and two with a 286 ERA. Let me ask you one
18:49final follow-up question about this marquee matchup. Both you
18:52and I believe this could be the NLCS that we see at the end of
18:57October. If the Phillies sweep, will we see more market
19:01movement in terms of the odds, the numbers for both teams to
19:04win the pennant and the World Series? It'll move slightly and
19:08also keep in mind once again, these numbers are priced upon
19:11both of these teams making the playoffs and I keep that and
19:13look, I'm the ultimate Phillies fan. It'd be very easy for me
19:16to say, yeah, they sweep them. Of course, it's going to be the
19:18Phillies. I do believe the Phillies overall right now have
19:20the best roster construction in Major League Baseball, but we
19:24bring on guest after guest and I still have the same stance as
19:27well. The Dodgers are going to look completely different
19:29because Landon Knack is not starting postseason games
19:32against Arenola. That's going to be a much more qualified
19:35pitcher, whether it comes off their IL or comes by the way of
19:38trade. So we'll change slightly here because the narrative will
19:41be there, but it's not going to change my opinion because that
19:43narrative will change fast over the next month when the
19:45Dodgers get healthy and make moves. Yeah. Yeah. Really good
19:48point DRS a really good point, but mark the numbers as of
19:51right now, not just the conclusion of this series, but
19:54the conclusion of the first half before the all-star break.
19:57The Dodgers the favorites to win the National League pennant
19:59plus 165. The Phil's back by just over half a buck at plus
20:04220. They were separated by a full dollar before this set
20:07began three to one. That's the number on the Dodgers to win
20:10the World Series plus 480 the price on the Phil's to win the
20:14World Series second best number for Philadelphia. Now we go out
20:19to Phoenix the fourth and final game of this midweek set
20:22between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Atlanta
20:25Braves. The Braves took the first to the Diamondbacks off
20:28the shelf yesterday to get their first victory in this
20:31series. Brandon fought gets the start tonight. Max freed on the
20:34other side for Atlanta. The Braves a slight road favorite
20:38minus 124. The over under is at eight. Are we going to see a
20:42series split or the Braves taking a series victory by
20:45winning three or four? Yeah, taking a look at yesterday,
20:49right? The Atlanta Braves are one of those teams that you
20:50just factor in on a day-to-day basis and say, let's just take
20:53the under because that's what they do. But yesterday, I
20:55thought there was a really good chance with those pictures on
20:57the mound that we could get an over and we saw that happen
20:59today. Let's get right back to the basics. This game is
21:02probably going to be an under Freed's on the mound. He's been
21:05fantastic. Full season numbers. How about this? 416 batters
21:08been he's faced. An ISO power number against 079. Awaited on
21:12base percentage 272. Strikeout numbers above 20%. Last 30 days
21:18really just as impressive as well. However, left-handed
21:21batters on excuse me, left-handed pitchers not doing
21:24so great here against Arizona as they've really elevated
21:27themselves over the past month. But I do believe in this
21:29instance, the pitcher will win out. Flip it over to Atlanta
21:32here. Brandon fought not that everyday name where you think
21:35is a dominant pitcher, but how about over the past 60 days
21:37here coming with a 95 X fit minus number at 3.88 era and a
21:42manageable 3.82 X fit number and talking about a lineup
21:45outside of two guys. That's Jared Kelenic and Austin Riley
21:49against right-handed pitching over the past month of the
21:51Atlanta Braves have elevated weighted on base percentages.
21:54Everybody else in that projective lineup today. Ben is
21:56below that form. So instead of taking a look at the side and
21:59you say maybe Atlanta is just a better team and maybe they
22:01should win the rubber match here. I'm just going under out
22:03in the desert where I did like the over yesterday. Yesterday,
22:07the Yanks and underdog in the trough in Tampa. They finally
22:11got a win Trent Grisham batting 176 this year delivering
22:15both ribbies for the New York Yankees. They win a low
22:18scoring affair two to one over the race today. The total eight
22:21Nestor Cortez gets the start for New York and they're a road
22:25favorite in Tampa at minus 124 to win the rubber match of this
22:30series. The Yankees entered yesterday losers of six of
22:34their last 21. They get a win. Can they make it too straight?
22:39Yeah, you saw that seven and a half up there and again the
22:41trough not really a great hitters ballpark as we know you
22:44saw it yesterday, even though you had double digit hits there
22:46for the Tampa Bay Rays and 0 for 10 and runners in scoring
22:49position that game ends up at two to one yesterday going well
22:52under the total. Are there great pitches on the mound
22:54today? Not necessarily, but Nestor Cortez over the past 60
22:57days coming with a 94 X fit by this number. That's not bad and
23:00also his numbers his last 119 batters that he's faced a 150
23:04ISO very manageable weighted on base percentage of 280. Same
23:07exact thing at K rate of around 24% the walk rate around 3%
23:12not giving out those free passes. The Tampa Bay Rays lineup
23:15has done well against left-handed pitching over the
23:17past month, but we would like to raise if they were let's just
23:19say playing in Camden Yards or Fenway as opposed to being at
23:22home with the trough. Let's flip it over to the Yankee side
23:24here. Shane Baz back on the mound today. Only 25 batters
23:28face this season. He is a pedigree pitcher. It'll be
23:31interesting to see how long he goes in this game, but also
23:33keep in mind the Yankees have done a decent job against
23:36right-handed pitching over the past month. Here's the issue
23:39though, which Yankees lineup are you going to get today and
23:41how many runs do we actually think they're going to get this
23:44game is screaming that four to three Ted caliber. It's a coin
23:47flip to me, but once again, just like we talked about that
23:50game in Arizona. I'm going to lean towards the under in the
23:52trough once again today. The New York Yankees have not won
23:56back-to-back games in a month since they had a four-game win
24:00streak come to a close on June 12th. At that point, the Yanks
24:04were 49 and 21. They had a three-game lead over Baltimore
24:08in the American League East. Now they trail the O's by two
24:12games, but the Orioles not making up a ton of ground this
24:15week. In fact, losing ground as they've lost two straight to
24:18the Cubs. Chicago's won six of its last seven, including the
24:22two as big underdogs inside Camden Yards. They're the
24:27underdog again today. Can the Orioles avoid a sweep against
24:32the Cubs? This is why we love Major League Baseball. This is
24:36how it's so crazy to handicap in that daily grind where you
24:39see something every day that you didn't anticipate. We came
24:41into this series been saying what? Oh boy, if you're the
24:44Yankees watch out because there's probably a sweep on
24:46deck for the Baltimore Orioles and you're going to struggle in
24:49Tampa and yet here we are today talking about a sweep. Yes, but
24:52by the Chicago Cubs and typically say, yeah, I mean how
24:54did you lose Corbin Burns game? Well, now you go out today
24:56with Suarez on the mound. He's not the best pitcher on the
24:59mound today. That's the left-handed pitcher Justin
25:01Steele for the Chicago Cubs. Take a look at his last 30 days
25:04Ben. 133 batters faced. An ISO power number of 071 against and
25:09a weighted on base percentage of 205. A K-rate approaching 27%
25:14and also a lineup. Yes, the Orioles have been handling
25:16left-handed pitchers fine over the past month, but Steele
25:19coming in much better form. Now, weather conditions once
25:21again, we talked about in Philadelphia almost identical
25:2488 degrees wind blowing out the right field that should help
25:26the batters. But if we are taking a look at the Chicago
25:29Cubs against Suarez, he's really struggling against
25:31right-handed batters right-handed batters should be
25:33the focal point here and dare. I say is the better team today.
25:36The Chicago Cubs over the Baltimore Orioles and sweeping
25:40the Orioles in their own ballpark. I think it might
25:42happen today. Plus 120 the Cubbies could win outright at
25:48Once again, keep an eye on Chicago still in the basement
25:53of the National League Central alongside the Reds 10 games
25:55back of the Brew Crew and five games below 500, but a little
25:59bit of life ahead of the all-star break for baseball
26:02breakdown. Next, the fourth and final of a four-game set in the
26:07Motor City between the Tigers and the Guardians today.
26:10Cleveland entered this week as the best team in the American
26:13League with the best record. It's where they stand ever so
26:16slightly right now in front of Baltimore despite dropping two
26:20of the first three against Detroit. So the Guardians today
26:24an underdog against the Tigers and Jack Flaherty minus 134
26:29Detroit. The over understands at eight Detroit swept
26:33Cincinnati over the weekend capped off by a Terrick
26:36Scruble 13K performance. Could the Tigers take three of four
26:41against the ALS best team DRS? I believe a famous coach once
26:45said these words go Tigers. And yes, that means the Tigers
26:49could be the right side today going up against Cleveland.
26:52Absolutely. Let's take a look at the matchup here. Jack
26:54Flaherty last 60 days in Major League Baseball a 56 XFIP minus
27:00number unheard of Lee good in ERA of 2.68 and XFIP of 2.33. I
27:05like that Guardians lineup. Don't get me wrong, but Flaherty
27:07I believe you might be the better pitcher today. Let's flip
27:09it over to the opposite side. Spencer Howard on the mound for
27:13the Cleveland Guardians. Stop the madness here. You take a
27:15look at his last 60 days a 124 XFIP minus number a 5.63 ERA.
27:21And if we're taking a look at just those matchups here,
27:23non-analytically with ice on weighted on base percentages
27:25192 and 460 get out of town. Cole Keith should be on your
27:30roster today. Riley Green should be on the roster today
27:33for RBI. And yes, we are going to take the Detroit Tigers in
27:37this game. How about that? Wow, Detroit three of four from the
27:42Guardians three straight over the Reds some optimism into the
27:46final weekend before the all-star break. Matt Bierling
27:49yesterday, three RBIs. Who said that? I'll show my age. You can
27:54make fun of me, but who said? Wait a second. You're not being
27:59yeah, you must be playing along with me and now what it wasn't
28:02Jim Leland that said it was another famous coach with a
28:05little bit of a background in the South who loved to eat
28:09Cajun food and sometime you have sports grid. Now, you
28:12said it. Oh, we asked this guy multiple questions. Hold on a
28:15second. Clip this. That is on me. Send this to me. Send this
28:19to college. I didn't realize this guy can't represent. I
28:21didn't realize. Yeah, that honestly, I'm not gonna lie to
28:25you. I thought you were referencing a movie that was on
28:28me. That's Ed Ogeron. That's Coach O. I didn't realize you
28:32were spelling go G-E-A-U-X. Oh boy. You want to tee up the
28:37next game even though it's game day number 11. I think I
28:41need to tie it up for a second to recollect. I do like that
28:43because sometimes you think like the partner behind the
28:46scenes and he's like, you know, let me just have some fun with
28:48this. So, I was like, I'll play along but then noticing that it
28:51was actually getting a little bit serious right there. Yeah,
28:53go Tigers. Perfect here at this point. Oh, well, it didn't hit.
28:57Maybe it hit with some people out there. Milwaukee and it was
28:59good. Go ahead. Woody's. Yeah, it was. It hit home. We know
29:02it's gonna hit home today. It's gonna be Paul Skeens. Paul
29:05Skeens with some filthy numbers. We talked about it
29:08already. You take a look at the 212 ERA, the exit number 2.34,
29:12the minuscule X minus number of a fifty-nine. Good luck,
29:16Milwaukee Brewers. Now, granted already, you're going up
29:19against one of the better right-handed pitchers in
29:20baseball who's young and certainly making his way
29:23around in his rookie year but having said that, if it was any
29:26right-handed pitcher on the mound, the Milwaukee Brewers
29:28have been struggling with them, Ben, over the past 30 days.
29:30Bryce Tarango, 167 ISO, Christian Yelich, 270, Jackson
29:34Chereo, 200. Outside of that, they have been abysmal against
29:38right-handed pitching. Advantage Paul Skeens and the
29:41Pittsburgh Pirates. Let's flip it over to the other side.
29:43Aaron Savalli. Let me just give you some numbers that he's been
29:45working with. Over the past 110 batters he's faced, how about
29:49an ISO of 235 and a weighted on base percentage of 369. This
29:53tells you a lot. The Pittsburgh Pirates are going on the road
29:56against the best team in that division and they are a
29:58favorite. Not because they're a great lineup. It's because
30:00Paul Skeens is on that mound that he's a better pitcher than
30:03Aaron Savalli. Yeah. Pittsburgh should win this game but as we
30:06hasten many times, you just go first five and say, give me
30:09Skeen Savalli. What do you say? Skeens will go six innings and
30:12oh boy, seven, eight, nine. Hold on. So, DRS, we've shared
30:17this a few times. The Pirates as an under or as a favorite
30:20this year which they often are with Paul Skeens on the bump.
30:23Not great. They're one of four teams around Major League
30:26Baseball that has a losing outright record as a favorite.
30:30Eighteen and nineteen for the Buccos. The Padres have lost
30:33the last couple of days as a favorite against the D backs
30:36and the M's. Now, there are three games below 525 and 28.
30:40The only other two teams, the Angels and the Marlins but when
30:44it comes to Paul Skeens and what he does on the bump, look
30:48at the K prop as well. Seven and a half is the number. It
30:52remains there. It's been there for a while since Skeens day
30:55number three or four but the over used to have plus money.
31:00Now, it has the juice. As Craig Mish warned, we're getting
31:04close to eight and a half under having the Vig because he's at
31:08eight plus Ks in six of his last seven starts and the
31:12Pirates have won seven of the ten starts that Skeens has made
31:16individually. He's a five and oh record with a two one two
31:20ERA. Last night out in San Francisco, the Blue Jays, a big
31:25victory. Ten to six over the Giants. A little bit of day
31:28baseball up by the bay. Minus 120, the number in favor of
31:32Sam France. Seven and a half the total. What do you like in
31:35a matchup between the Jays and the Giants? How many times have
31:39I come on this program and said, you know, when you get
31:40the same weather conditions out in the Bay Area for night
31:43games, mid 60s, wind blowing out the center field. Here's
31:45what we love. It's a 1245 start Pacific time. How about this
31:49Ben? Seventy-five degrees out there with the wind blowing out
31:51the dead center field. That should change some things that
31:53marine layer that creeps in at night. Shouldn't be there
31:56during the day. That should help the bats here. And also
31:58taking over Kevin Galsman, a decent pitcher. Yes. Jordan
32:02Hicks, a decent pitcher. Yes. But we're not having to worry
32:04about, oh, no, we're running into an Aaron Nola or a Paul
32:06Skeens at this point. So without actually doing deep
32:09handicapping on both sides, even though the lineups
32:11actually look good today, sometimes it is about the
32:13weather here that can give you the boost. Usually it's a
32:16detriment in San Francisco this afternoon. It's actually a
32:19positive. Let's go with the over today with the Blue Jays
32:21and the San Francisco Giants. Love that. Seven and a half.
32:25The rubber match of this series. Elliott Ramos, the
32:28all-star, the young all-star in the National League for the
32:30Giants. Plus 165 to record a ribby. Something he has done in
32:34both of the first two games against Toronto. The Houston
32:37Astros looking to crawl closer to the Seattle Mariners. The
32:41Strohs now four games above 500. Best record they have had
32:46all year. They're taking advantage of playing Miami.
32:49Minus 184. Will it be another victory for the Strohs today?
32:54Jake Bloss is on the mound for Houston. So I don't even know
32:57what to expect out of him. Only 15 batters so far. But the
32:59one thing we do know, the Miami Marlins have the worst
33:01pitcher on the card today in Roderick Munoz. He doesn't get
33:04lefties out. He doesn't get righties out. The Houston
33:07Astros on their ascent to possibly being in first place
33:10or tied by the all-star break. Say it ain't so. How did that
33:13happen? Little win today. Looking for, looking for the
33:17sweep over the fish. If they do, that's 16 wins in their
33:21last 20 games. More baseball breakdowns. Best best net. PRS,
33:25your American League team yesterday. Not a great showing
33:28at home in Fenway against the Oakland Athletics. They went
33:32down five to two despite winning the first game by a ton
33:37over the A's to take the opener. Rubber match today then
33:40between Boston and Oakland at Fenway. Look at this price. It
33:45is the largest money line price on the board right now in
33:48favor of any specific team. Tanner Haup and the Red Sox.
33:52Minus 230. The over under nine and a half against the
33:56Athletics. Will Boston win the set? Yeah, by the way, only two
34:00runs yesterday. How about that? Tyler O'Neal, best bet yesterday
34:02on the show for me to get an RBI. Got an RBI out of those
34:05two runs. So, we'll take that as a fantastic performance from
34:08the Boston batters. But I do think the Boston batters rise
34:11up against tonight. Luis Medina, not a great pitcher.
34:14Last 60 days, a 134 XFIT minus. ERA coming in around four and
34:18a half but more importantly, that XFIT number, close to five
34:20and a half. Fly balls out there on a day with 82 degrees and a
34:23wind blowing out. Double digits once again over Fenway's green
34:27monster. I think we get some runs. Should be an easy victory
34:30for Boston today and if you're putting some of those guys on
34:32your roster to get RBI, I mean, come on, Rafael Devers, Tyler
34:35O'Neal, David Hamilton, Darren Duran. There's a lot of them
34:39here. Should be a runaway victory for the Boston Red Sox
34:41in this game, no doubt. Listen, I'm not necessarily rooting for
34:46the Red Sox but I do want Boston playing their best
34:48baseball before I head to Fenway Park for the first time
34:51in my life on Saturday afternoon. However, don't tell
34:56this to the faithful there in New England. They're taking on
34:59the Royals this weekend. You know, I'm a KC guy. You know, I
35:03got the over the Royals win total at seventy-three and a
35:06half. KC yesterday victorious in both games against Saint
35:09Louis. Fifty-one wins now for Kansas City. You know, we're
35:14gonna be sprinkling on our guy Vinny Pasquantino to record a
35:17ribby in Fenway. So, before we say farewell and goodbye on
35:23this Thursday, we give you a best bet. It's like a preview
35:27of the last ten but last like two and a half with Ben. It is
35:32time for bye bye bye.
35:39PRS oftentimes on a Thursday in Major League Baseball. It's a
35:43getaway day. You've got a ton of afternoon games. It's an
35:46off day before a weekend series begins for whatever team around
35:50the league. We got twelve games today. That's a rather large
35:52Thursday slate. So, before we get into the final weekend
35:56before the all-star break in MLB, what's your best bet on
35:59this Thursday? Best bet, let's go to Philadelphia. By the way,
36:02I wanted to go to Houston today but Jordan Alvarez might not be
36:05in the lineup. That would have been an unbelievable play for
36:07an RBI. So, let's go back to the guy that came off the IL
36:10Hot again here. It's Kyle Schwarber. Left-handed batter
36:13for the Philadelphia Utilities against right-handed pitching
36:15over the past month. 326 ISO weighted on base percentage
36:18404. Wind blowing out to left field. He's probably gonna get
36:21home run but again, let's not get greedy here. Let's just get
36:24the RBI. The Family Sportsbook right now minus 105 price for
36:27Kyle Schwarber to record an RBI. He should get that done
36:30tonight.