• 3 months ago
Transcript
00:00Don't think we forgot about baseball as we enter this weekend around MLB tons of baseball
00:09breakdowns around the Bates coming your way live right here for the next two segments
00:13from the bright mind of Donnie Wright side live on the early line on sports grid DRS
00:19a race for the top spot in the American League Central that has become a tad more competitive
00:24because the Guardians are on a slide Cleveland has lost five straight games entering a weekend
00:30set in Minneapolis against the twins Minnesota not all that far out from the number one spot
00:37in the AL Central a doubleheader of action today in Minnesota a makeup from early in
00:43April gets started just a little bit after 2 p.m. Eastern Time the twins a minus one
00:4938 favorite in the opening game against Cleveland and then later tonight a little bit after
00:558 p.m. Eastern Time the twins a slight favorite for game number two as well yeah the pressure
01:00is really going to build here today for the Guardians because they're coming into this
01:03game again playing a divisional opponent but also understanding they're on a five game
01:06losing streak and with a doubleheader doubleheaders aren't great for getting win streaks underway
01:10you're just hoping that you're going to win one of these two games which means you're
01:14probably going to be losing worst case scenario what then six out of seven games when it's
01:18all said and done but also game number one Tristan McKenzie is going to take them out
01:21he's been bad this year no statistics over the past 30 days but take a look at a season
01:25339 batters faced a 240 ISO power number against with a weighted on base percentage of 362
01:32now if you're going to take a look at the opposing side pitcher it's barely over you
01:35might say like ah I don't really know that guy all that well well but I'm going to tell
01:38you right now 26 eligible pitchers on my card today over the past 60 days with a minimum
01:43of 20 innings pitch you know we're over six number two with a 78 x-fit bodice and an ERA
01:49of 2.40 and a Sierra number very manageable at 3.08 the better team in this game game
01:55number one is going to be Minnesota now as I say that you can't sit even in a doubleheader
02:00you don't want to stress your bullpen out right you don't want to play you know superstars
02:04two games back-to-back if you don't need to but you're telling me right now against a
02:08divisional opponent losing five straight games and I'm saying they're gonna lose game number
02:11one Cleveland you got to go max effort in game number two regardless of what happens
02:15here because you can't afford to lose seven in a row including two more games to the Minnesota
02:19twins so that's something to watch for game number two but game number one I do like the
02:23twins here the Guardians just a three and a half game lead for that top spot in the
02:29American League Central from the odds perspective down to just a minus 155 favored number Cleveland
02:35often throughout a good majority of this MLB campaign has held a five five and a half six
02:40game advantage in the American League Central it is starting to dwindle the Guardians on a five
02:46game skid a reunion today in the trop Zach Eflin traded for by Baltimore from the Rays at the trade
02:53deadline will make his third start with the O's but against his former team in Tampa the O's need
02:59to keep winning games there's a battle for the top spot in the American League East Baltimore a
03:04slight road favorite today at minus 134 total of seven and a half now Eflin has given up five earned
03:10runs in total and a two starts he has made for Baltimore but he and the O's have won both of
03:16those first two starts and a Baltimore jersey here's what you like to write Oh Zach Eflin on
03:21the road typically you pitch better at home well technically is this not a home game per se for
03:25Zach Eflin going back to play in Tampa Bay so that's something to use if you're out there saying
03:29I love those home road splits don't use them in this one because technically this was his home
03:33ballpark and understands how to pitch there and also yesterday eight innings this team the Baltimore
03:39Orioles was held down before Blake breaking out in the ninth inning I look for more damage today
03:43let's tell it's not a great pitcher and if you take a look at his last 60 days a 108 x-fit minus
03:48which is slightly above average but an ERA approaching closer to five this is a team the
03:52Baltimore Orioles has done very well against right-handed pitching so for me I think Baltimore
03:57wins this game I do think you have some legitimate RBI props here you know I love myself a little
04:01bit of Anthony Santander I mean 394 iso power number through this 81 at bats against right
04:06handed pitching the better team is Baltimore they lost yesterday they're gonna win today
04:10Tanner how the all-star for Boston has not looked great here as of late six earned runs given up as
04:19the Red Sox start a weekend set against the Houston Astros six earned given up for how in his last
04:25start for Boston but the Red Sox playing good baseball despite not being able to complete the
04:31sweep over KC this week at Kaufman they won that series the Red Sox have won six of their last
04:37eight the Astros took the final two games of their midweek set against their in-state and divisional
04:42foes the Texas Rangers Boston a home favorite today against Ronald Blanco and the Astros yeah
04:49there's some rain in the forecast you see that total nine and a half so you need double digits
04:53in order to cash in that ticket if we do dance around the raindrops in Boston 70 degree temperatures
04:58which is nice 16 mile-an-hour winds blowing out to left field that's why that number is so high
05:03but Ronald Blanco actually has decent statistics been over the last 60 days if we include left
05:08hander and right-handed batters and include them together however his last 47 left-handed batters
05:13that he's faced over the past month a 341 iso and a weighted on base percentage of 380 why is that
05:19important seven of the nine batters anticipated tonight for the Boston Red Sox will be lefties
05:23and I'm talking about the first four guys Duran 463 weighted on base percentage O'Brien 493 Yoshida
05:30413 Devers 481 you want to continue down Dominic Smith 411 you take a look at so guard a switch
05:37hitter 367 and then you take a look at Rafael is actually right game to batter 349 to bring up the
05:42rear in the nine hole so I'm looking at this performance bounce back probably on hand for
05:47your starting pitcher but also Blanco is decent just not against lefties I think that's a recipe
05:51for success they are favorite for reason tonight Boston and I think they win this game over the
05:56Astros the Red Sox leave KC after a series victory over the Royals still trailing Kansas
06:02City by the game and a half for the third and final American League wild-card spot a team in
06:08wild-card contention trying to hold on to that third and final spot the New York Mets they take
06:13the midweek set in Colorado against the Rockies 9 to 1 the victory at Coors Field meanwhile at home
06:20the Mariners avoid a sweep against the Tigers down in the bottom of the ninth the bases jacked
06:26for Mitch Hanegar a walk-off bases clearing three RBI double Seattle gets the victory to avoid a
06:34sweep against Detroit yesterday 4 to 3 the M's a slight home favorite today against the Amazons
06:40what do you like in the opener of this weekend series typically when you see a game that's going
06:45to play in Seattle your initial thought is going to be to the under I'm actually the opposite on
06:49this take a look at that eight Jose Quintana is going to be on the mound for the Mets you take a
06:52look at him his last 75 batters he's faced on the right-hand side they've really gotten the best of
06:56them 317 ISO power number weighted on base percentage at 385 and take a look at a walk
07:01percentage of close to 14% that means runners are going to be on base so the theory would be let's
07:07get as many right-handed batters as we possibly can to line up against Quintana looking at the
07:11preliminary lineup all nine batters for the Seattle Mariners will be right-handed batters
07:16tonight so that should be an advantage we're taking a look from a Mets perspective we like
07:20their offense Bryce Miller though take a look at his last 92 at batters he's assumed 92 batters
07:25he's faced man an 090 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 260 here so just by going on match
07:30ups alone a slight price to the favorite for Seattle even though the Mets are hot I think
07:35the Mariners could be the better play tonight on that side of a very intriguing game in terms of
07:41that postseason perspective again the Mets a half-game lead now over Atlanta for the third
07:46and final National League wild-card spot Seattle the win yesterday to avoid the sweep against
07:51Detroit Houston had the day off the Mariners and the Astros will enter this weekend tied atop the
07:57American League West game number two of a four-game set this weekend out in the desert between Arizona
08:03and Philadelphia not only the NLCS rematch from a year ago but important based on postseason
08:09positioning for both the Phillies and the Diamondbacks the Phil's at one three straight
08:14final two in LA and last night in the opener against the D backs as an underdog they're now
08:20a road favorite nearing a dollar and a half was Zach Wheeler at a minus 142 place on the mound
08:25by the way Zach Wheeler is the better pitcher on the mound today but by the way Ryan Nelson one of
08:30those guys you like to fade at the beginning of the year he's really turned it around last 60 days
08:35minus an ERA of 3.50 and a very manageable Sierra number of 3.78 if we're taking a look at him on
08:41the diamond itself and not just those analytical numbers the last 122 batters he's faced take a
08:46look at this from the righty a 127 ISO and a 282 weighted on base percentage I told you last night
08:52we'd like the over out there and they did get that today maybe looking more towards a Phillies
08:57victory because I do think they do have the better pitch on the mound but I do think the ball stays
09:01in the yard maybe an under to look out for even though both of these lineups are very good
09:05nine and a half the total yesterday ten total runs the Phil's taking the opener six to four
09:11Zach Wheeler plus 240 second best price to win the National League Cy Young Award these are the
09:16types of starts on a Friday night against a playoff contender that can move the market or
09:22MLB breakdown set the Braves down bad as of this moment Atlanta has lost five consecutive games
09:28and for the first time maybe all season has fallen out of postseason spots as of this moment
09:35a half game behind the Mets for the third and final National League wildcard spot Atlanta has
09:41to pull it together they go with our guy Grant Holmes today on the road at Coors against the
09:47Rockies minus 162 the number in favor of Atlanta against the worst team in the National League
09:52that is Colorado ten and a half now the total the Braves weren't terrible offensively against
10:00Milwaukee just a little bit lifeless they did score 12 total runs in their last two games
10:05against the Brew Crew it's just that Milwaukee scored 24 combined runs in each of those two
10:11victories for Milwaukee can Atlanta pick it up at altitude today against the Rocks I don't want to
10:19say minus 150 or higher on the Braves on the road I don't think it makes all that much sense but
10:24going against Colorado they are the better team today let's take a look at Tanner Gordon is going
10:28to be on the mound for the Rockies on the season he's actually only faced 91 batters but having
10:33said that then the splits 294 ISO against in a 394 weighted on base percentage he has done very well
10:38however against left-handed batters which is interesting as a right-handed pitcher where
10:43they're getting the best of him it's from the right side less 36 batters he's faced been a
10:47471 ISO power number and a 537 weighted on base percentage and you might say oh that might be just
10:53in last month but if you add on another 12 batters over a season that number is still a 413 ISO and
10:58a weighted on base percentage of 539 so when you flip to it maybe you don't want to go after the
11:03lefties but there's a couple righties that are doing very well against right-handed pitching
11:07over the past month for the Braves that's Austin Riley 241 ISO power number and Marcelo Zuna at a
11:12341 ISO power number if you want to throw in Orlando Garcia still has 70 at bats it with a
11:17258 ISO and a 415 weighted on base percentage I do think the Braves get it together and you're
11:22right about that it's not as if like we worry about the Atlanta offense hey shut out and gain
11:26number one they actually were scoring a decent amount of runs but the pitching really let them
11:30down so if the pitching lets them down in Colorado maybe you don't want to lay that price but having
11:34said that there's still some RBI opportunities even if they are juiced since being in Colorado
11:39Riley Ozuna and Arcia make a lot of sense today if you're looking for an RBI option
11:44again the Braves now a half game behind the New York Mets for the third and final National League
11:49wildcard spot a team at the all-star break we expected to contend maybe in the NL wildcard
11:54race if they could hold on the Pittsburgh Pirates they have started to fade they have dropped four
12:00in a row six of their last seven the buck goes now two games below 500 and four and a half back
12:07of a wildcard position in the National League the Dodgers not playing their best brand of baseball
12:12in the last two weeks they've lost seven of their last 11 including the midweek set against
12:17Philadelphia at home the Dodgers remain at the ravine and Jack Flaherty the native Angelino
12:23makes his second consecutive start for LA darn good in his Dodgers debut six innings of work
12:31against Oakland shut out baseball seven strikeouts Flaherty and the Dodgers greater than a two dollar
12:37favorite tonight in Los Angeles is the price justified the price is justified because the
12:43better pitcher on the mound certainly is going to be from a Dodgers perspective and Flaherty will
12:46get that just a second the Dodgers are home and also just some heartbreaking losses as of late
12:51for Pittsburgh and they're starting to reel a little bit and it's not a great situation to say
12:55well let's fly from Pittsburgh and go out to Los Angeles then stay on the west coast and play some
12:59pretty quality opponents and certainly you're trying to hang around that wildcard streak you're
13:03four and a half games back this could slip to five six and seven and a half games back with
13:07three or four teams above you trying to climb into that wildcard spot so this is a danger zone
13:12for Pittsburgh but if we are looking at the game itself Jack Flaherty last 91 batters he's face
13:17been stellar 071 iso against a 199 weighted on base percentage if you just look at his season
13:22in totality 440 batters he's faced a 151 iso and a weighted on base percentage of 271 this was the
13:29key acquisition for the Dodgers that's supposed to propel them and help them in the playoffs once
13:33they get there so for my money in this game today I look at that total because it's not a terrible
13:38pitcher that you have in Mitch Keller he's a veteran guy it's not the guy that's going to
13:41have a spot start he does have a decent era over the past 60 days slightly elevated x-fit minus
13:46number I do like the Dodgers but I just don't know if I want to pay a two-to-one price in this
13:51environment but I would be surprised if Pittsburgh comes away with the victory in this game yeah I
13:56would as well Jack Flaherty that key piece the big acquisition made on deadline day and the Dodgers
14:03are happy with the early return I would say as of right now the show me state showdown a rivalry
14:10series a unique weekend set only a two-game series in Kansas City between the Royals and the Cardinals
14:17KC a slight home favorite in Kauffman tonight minus 116 total of nine against the Redbirds
14:24again DRS just today and tomorrow an off day Sunday for both St. Louis and KC now is that
14:32what's the reason for that though is there a reason why they have an off day Sunday they have
14:36like one of those like international games they're playing or something that's kind of odd that they
14:39could take off a Sunday at that point so just a random schedule I guess yeah I think it's just
14:45kind of a random quirk in the schedule rivalry series like what we saw during the subway set
14:50yeah are really just two games but both of those were in the midweek St. Louis and KC have played
14:56earlier in the month of July about a month ago now on July 10th they had a rain out played a
15:02doubleheader KC took both of those games on the road under the arch in the loo not exactly sure
15:07what the reasoning is for the schedule except we have seen rivalry series only be two games
15:13apiece regardless for game number one yeah what's the play yeah if we're looking at this game
15:19overall I like runs in this situation 32 excuse me 26 pitchers qualified on the card today dead
15:24last that's Michael Lorenzen look at his last 30 days a 173 iso and a 371 weighted on base percentage
15:30left-handed batters have absolutely hammered him I expect that to be continuing tonight and also
15:35from a Myles Michaelis perspective he's really been leaking oil lately take a look at his last
15:3994 batters he's faced been a 284 iso power number and a weighted on base percentage of 422 basically
15:45evenly split between left-handed batters and right-handed batters and you look at the middle
15:49of that lineup it's going to be Massey, Witt, Pasquantino, Perez, Renfroe, Melendez they should
15:54all get the better of Michaelis so forget about that coin flip scenario on the price point here
15:59I think we get runs between these two teams I don't trust these pitchers at all how about our
16:04two guys DRS ranking in the top five around the bigs in RBI's recorded this season Bobby Witt
16:10Jr. 84 the Pasquatch himself Vinny P, Vinny Pasquantino also with 84 it's been the offensive
16:18production for KC the Royals a game and a half lead for the third and final spot in the AL
16:23wildcard St. Louis now two and a half back of the National League wildcard chase DRS
16:29we send you into the money line have a great weekend my friend we'll see you on Monday
16:33gonna enjoy be back Monday get after it

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