Brayan Bello was a hugely touted prospect, compared to Pedro Martinez, extended by the Red Sox and has yet to take the leap many expected him to. Joey Copponi and Scott Neville break down some of Bello's stats and raise the question - hasve the expectations for Brayan Bello changed?
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00:00Bail just might not be like I know we've seen it with how we do and we've seen it with Crawford took a second but
00:07Dude, you want to get stabbed his career era right now Ryan Bale career era. Yeah
00:14for 11 I
00:16wish brother for 6-6
00:19Bad that's bad. He's got a nice
00:2455 starts 57 games because of that one time where he came back from injury and they had him like
00:30Come in after the opener against Houston
00:3457 outings of 466. Yeah. Yeah 297 and two-thirds
00:42career he's got a
00:454 to 5th, which is a little encouraging
00:49146
00:51Or really a 147 whip is the problem. Yeah, and
00:57And
00:58Yeah, I just I don't know like that's 95 era plus total 80 era plus this year and you just wonder like what?
01:07That's gonna look like now again Tanner. How maybe they do something but his mix. It's just it's almost like he is too much
01:17Movement on his own pitches that he can't control it like it's just everything's
01:21Moving so much. He just can't like locate it
01:25It's inconsistency, isn't it? Yeah, like if you look at the average pitch movement of
01:31like, you know say his slider and
01:34Then look at you know, the individual pitch movement of one versus another
01:40I mean, they're it's just it's just inconsistent. He just doesn't know where it's going which which is bad in its own
01:46but I think
01:47what you're getting at and I feel very similarly is like it is hard to like fully project a guy's career and be like
01:54He's having you know, a bad two and a half seasons. Therefore. He's gonna suck forever
01:59It's like it's hard to do that. But I do think it's an appropriate time to readjust our
02:07expectations for Brian Bale I
02:09think it's totally legitimate to say it really doesn't look like he's gonna be the ace that some people thought he was or
02:17Even to say it would be a stretch
02:21To think that he's gonna be the number two that more power thought he would be yeah
02:26I think that's totally fair
02:28Maybe not even for like forever
02:29But but the thing I have trouble with is is it's it was easy with how as much as people were even myself
02:36Thought he might have just been a better reliever. It was easy to project how that fastball and slider
02:43Was going to translate?
02:45into a successful pitcher
02:48Because he was pretty much just righty Chris sale
02:51That's the mode you don't have the elite changeup
02:53Which is obviously what made Chris sale like that was the the things he had three elite pitches
02:58Everyone talks about the slider, but the changeup is huge
03:00But you knew he had that splitter and that he there was he had a few other pitches the cutter and he was working on
03:07Stuff it was an easier projection to me than bail. Do you want to guess? We just did this game
03:13Do you want to guess his batting average against Bale's career batting average against because this is a problem on all all of his pitches
03:21Not yeah, like he's totally
03:23general batting average against
03:27260 I again fucking wish
03:32281
03:33That's like having Jared Duran up nine times
03:37Yeah
03:38His rookie year is 315 last year. It was 270 this year's 277
03:43So it's consistently like it's it this isn't a you know, he figured it out for a little bit
03:48You know, he had a 225 last year and he's just blowing up this year
03:52It's bad couple months like this. He is a very like you would think what the guy
03:57With his if you watched a bullpen of him and someone said hey this guy has a four six six career
04:04What's the problem you would assume well, he's electric
04:07He doesn't get hit often, but I bet he walks a ton and he probably hangs someone gives up bombs
04:14unfortunately
04:15He's actually his walk rate is is below league average technically 8% versus 8.3% as a league average
04:22But he does hang a lot of pages at least the homers up
04:24But he's hittable like as filthy as this stuff looks on, you know, like a pitching ninja video
04:30Whatever a 281 career batting at average against for a perspective. The MLB league average is 245
04:37like that's
04:40He's getting smoked like pitchers. I mean hitters are seeing him. Well, they're connecting. They're barreling his pitches. That's
04:48crazy
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05:37guaranteed
05:38The only out you could maybe give him and this really only applies to last year
05:44What'd you say is average against last year was at 281?
05:47No, that's his career. He's 270 last year, which was best
05:51Oh, well, then this doesn't even really apply. I was going to say he was pitching with the worst defense in the Statcast era
05:59history behind him
06:01And we know that you know, they love to give hits over errors
06:05But that really hasn't been the case. He's a ground ball pitcher. He's a put the ball in play guy. But yeah
06:11He's a line drive pitcher this year. I
06:14mean, he's still got a crazy ground ball rate like
06:18Fifty two point two percent fifty four point eight percent over his career. The MOB average is forty two point four but like
06:25They're hit hard and they're you know, I
06:29Don't know
06:30It's just it I will say like I think he is somebody that needs four gold lovers on the infield for him to
06:36Reach his ceiling and I don't know if that's happening anytime soon. That's kind of a tough ask
06:42yeah, the other thing if you're trying to be optimistic about the future of Brian Baio that you could look at is
06:48through 2030
06:51Yeah, if you're trying to be optimistic about him you could at least say he's gonna be here forever, yeah, yep
06:58No, but I was gonna say you you could look at the fact that he has not had a solid pitch mix
07:05Ever like he's never had it. Oh, that's down Pat. Yeah, you're so
07:09That's all know what I'm saying
07:11It's like he's still working his pitch mix and his pitch usage not as pitch mix his music and
07:16They pulled out his four seamer
07:18They put his four seamer back in like they if any started, you know
07:20using the the sinker
07:22more than the four seamer and then totally dropped it and like then started using the sweeper or slider more than the changeup like
07:29It is still plug-and-play like wet what does work like they are still trying to figure it out
07:33Well, it's like you could frame that to say like he hasn't found that yet
07:38But it's hard to say that his pitch mix is the biggest problem with him because no matter what he's throwing
07:45There's a couple in there that are crazy edible and there's a couple that are gonna be a foot and a half outside
07:50So the only so I feel like that point would work much better with like what I was saying about early Tanner Hauk
07:58And even early cutter Crawford and in early Nathan Evaldi
08:02But the difference there is that they were adding and developing new pitches
08:08Bayo is just saying okay. Hold on
08:12My four seamer is getting smoked. Let me try to stop throwing that and lean on the two seamer that I have
08:18That's getting killed too. I guess we just
08:22Start throwing the four seamer a little bit more. No, they're both getting killed
08:26like there's it's not like he's like
08:29spent this season developing a curveball and
08:33Then it was like getting like the you know, the spin rate was good, but he's still getting it down consistency
08:40Whatever there it's it's he has four pitches
08:44He has but most of the time uses three. Yeah, and he has his four pitches like that. He can throw
08:52One of them is doing really well
08:56It's his changeup
08:58Everything else is getting
09:00Murdered because even like everyone talks about his slider
09:04His slider is a 280 batting average against and he's given up two homers six doubles 15 singles
09:13It's not good actually because he's only thrown it 18 times his four seamer hasn't been hit yet
09:21So maybe yeah, I don't know and that was one that was one start that he threw it
09:25Yeah, and last year they got hit at a 310 clip so I
09:30my that's my thing is like you can use the pitch mix thing if it's like
09:35For example, if his changeup and slider were filthy and his fastball was okay
09:40It'd be like, okay, he can like increase the off-speed usage, but it's just his changeup. That's filthy and
09:47if you're sinker
09:49good lord has a
09:52357 batting average against like it does this year and you he doesn't have a primary
10:01Astronomical and
10:03You you can't you need a primary pitch if you're like you can go
10:09Unless you have a Devin Williams changeup with four feet of vertical drop
10:14Like it you can't really have your changeup be more than 50% of your pitch mix
10:19But even if it you are gonna be one of those guys
10:22There needs to be something else that they're worried about and you don't you haven't figured out the hard pitch yet
10:27You've told that like they need the changeup has been filthy because of its movement
10:32but they can just
10:34Ignore that and then just say I'm just gonna wait for the hard stuff because I can kill that because apparently they can
10:49You