Today's Weather 5 A.M. | July 20, 2024
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NewsTranscript
00:00Good morning from the Weather Forecasting Center.
00:04This is our update on the storms that we are monitoring inside our Philippine Area of Responsibility.
00:10We are continuing to monitor the storms Butchoy and Carina inside our PAR.
00:16And our latest location earlier at 4 in the morning.
00:19This is the last sight of the center of the storm Butchoy.
00:22This is still a tropical depression 545 kilometers away from Canluran of Subic Bay.
00:29There is a strong wind near the center that reaches 55 kilometers per hour.
00:33And when it opens, it reaches 70 kilometers per hour.
00:37Butchoy continues to move north-westward at a speed of 20 kilometers per hour
00:42outside our Philippine Area of Responsibility.
00:46And this is the storm Carina earlier at 4 in the morning.
00:50This is the last sight of its center 625 kilometers east-northeast of Virac in May, Catanduanes.
00:58This is still a tropical depression.
01:00There is a strong wind near the center that reaches 55 kilometers per hour.
01:05And when it opens, it reaches 70 kilometers per hour.
01:08Carina continues to move north-westward at a speed of 30 kilometers per hour.
01:15And we can see here in our latest satellite images
01:18that the clouds associated with these two storms do not reach any part of our country.
01:24This Southwest Monsoon, or Hanging Habagat,
01:26which continues to be brought by Baguyong-Butchoy,
01:29we expect that it will reach cloudy skies,
01:32that there will be heavy rains,
01:33landslides and landslides in some areas of our country,
01:36particularly here in Antique, Palawan, Occidental Mindoro
01:40and in areas of Zambales and Bataan.
01:44It is clearer in the time that we expect in Metro Manila
01:47and in the vast majority of our country.
01:49However, we are still prepared for the chances of heavy rains
01:53and landslides and landslides of localized thunderstorms.
01:58And this is the track and intensity forecast of Butchoy's tropical depression for the next few days.
02:04We expect that for the next 24 hours,
02:06so tomorrow, early Sunday,
02:09Butchoy's location will be 910 kilometers away from the center of Luzon.
02:16So Butchoy is already outside of our Philippine area of responsibility by then.
02:2124 hours after that, early Monday,
02:23Butchoy's location is 1120 kilometers away from the northern Luzon.
02:27And when the early day of Tuesday arrives,
02:31Butchoy is already 1,300 kilometers away from the extreme northern Luzon.
02:37So it is possible that it will hit or landfall in the vicinity of Hainan in China.
02:43For the track and intensity forecast of Baguyong-Karina,
02:46for the next 24 hours,
02:48tomorrow, early Sunday,
02:50or early Sunday,
02:51tomorrow, we expect that Karina's location will be 545 kilometers away from Kasiguran Aurora.
02:57The northwestern movement of Butchoy will continue within the next 24 hours.
03:02And when the early day of Monday arrives,
03:04Butchoy's location is 420 kilometers away from Aparikagayan.
03:1024 hours after that, early Tuesday,
03:13or early Tuesday,
03:14Butchoy's location is 370 kilometers east of Vasco Batanes.
03:18Itbayat is 415 kilometers east-northeast.
03:21And when Thursday arrives,
03:24next week, we expect that Butchoy's location will be outside of our Philippine area of responsibility.
03:28Itbayat is 585 kilometers north-northeast of Batanes.
03:35What do we expect will be the impact of these typhoons on our country?
03:42Heavy rainfall will be the main cause of these typhoons,
03:45so there's still a small chance,
03:47or we don't expect,
03:48that there will be direct heavy rains
03:51on Butchoy's location in our country.
03:54And there's also a low likelihood,
03:56or a small chance,
03:57that Karina's location will be affected by the heavy rainfall
04:00in our area.
04:02Even so, if there are significant changes in our track forecast,
04:05there will be changes in our heavy rainfall outlook
04:08within the forecast period,
04:10so that is within the next three days.
04:11So let's stay with the updates that will be released
04:14by the succeeding tropical cyclone bulletins
04:17for the Karina typhoon.
04:20The Southwest Monsoon,
04:22which continues to be affected by Butchoy and Karina,
04:26it is still impossible to predict
04:28how strong the rainfall will be
04:30in the northern part of Luzon
04:32in the next three days.
04:34For the additional details of the rainfall
04:37brought by the Southwest Monsoon,
04:38we expect that for today,
04:40we will experience 50 to 100 millimeters,
04:42so that is moderate to heavy rains,
04:44in the northern part of Palawan and Occidental Mindoro.
04:48By tomorrow, July 21,
04:51that is Sunday,
04:52there will be additional or more areas
04:55that will experience heavy rainfall.
04:58We will also experience rainfall in the areas of Zambales,
05:01Bataan,
05:02there will continue to be rainfall in the areas of Occidental Mindoro
05:04and Northern Palawan.
05:06By Monday,
05:08we will also experience rainfall in the areas of Ilocos Region
05:11and the rainfall will continue,
05:13this moderate to heavy rain in Zambales,
05:15Bataan,
05:16Northern Palawan,
05:17and Occidental Mindoro.
05:20For the mentioned areas,
05:22let us continue to be ready and alert
05:24to the threats of flooding and landslides,
05:27especially if the rainfall that we will experience
05:30brought by the Southwest Monsoon,
05:32or Hanging Habagat, continues.
05:35As for the strong winds
05:37or the severe winds brought by the typhoons,
05:40as of now,
05:41there is still no tropical cyclone wind signal
05:43in any part of our country
05:45because these two typhoon centers are far apart.
05:49But for now,
05:50the Southwest Monsoon,
05:51or Hanging Habagat,
05:52that is being monitored by BOTCHOY
05:54and CARINA,
05:55in the coming days,
05:56it is possible for gusty conditions to occur.
05:58These are the strong winds
06:01in some parts of our country.
06:03Especially in areas like Bulobundukin
06:06or coastal areas,
06:09we expect that the winds will be stronger
06:12in these areas.
06:13Starting today until tomorrow,
06:15we will experience gusty conditions
06:17in parts of the Kalayaan Islands.
06:19There will be more areas
06:20that will experience strong winds
06:22by Monday.
06:23Regions of Calabarzon,
06:25Mimaropa,
06:26Bongkabikulan,
06:27Western Visayas,
06:29and here in Bataan and Metro Manila,
06:31we will also experience gusty conditions
06:33brought by Habagat.
06:35And based on our latest forecast scenario,
06:37for now,
06:38there are still no windsignals
06:39in any part of our country.
06:40We are not removing the possibility
06:42that we will have a strong wind signal
06:45in areas like Extreme Northern Luzon
06:48and in the eastern portion of Northern Luzon.
06:50So,
06:51the strength of our windsignals
06:53in these areas will depend
06:55on the track and movement
06:57of this typhoon CARINA.
07:01And in terms of our ocean,
07:02for now,
07:03there are still no high gale warnings
07:04in any part of our country.
07:06However,
07:07our countrymen will be careful
07:09especially here in the western section of Luzon
07:12and in the areas of Visayas and Mindanao
07:15because it is still possible
07:16for us to experience gusty conditions
07:18up to the sea level.
07:19So, moderate to rough sea conditions
07:20are still possible for us to experience
07:22in these areas
07:23brought by the south-west monsoon
07:25or Hanging Habagat.
07:28For more details
07:29on the track and intensity forecast
07:30of Tropical Depression Butchoy,
07:32we can see here on this track
07:34that the generally west-northwestward
07:37movement of Butchoy
07:38will continue until tomorrow.
07:40So, starting tomorrow,
07:41the movement of the typhoon
07:43will be north-northwestward.
07:45So, it is possible for Butchoy
07:47to come out of our Philippine Area of Responsibility
07:49this morning.
07:51And Butchoy's strength will continue
07:53as the West Philippine Sea Area is being pushed.
07:55So, it is possible for us to meet
07:57the Tropical Storm Category tomorrow
07:59and it will continue to weaken
08:01after this landfall
08:03in the Hainan area
08:05in China.
08:08On the track and intensity forecast
08:10of Tropical Depression Butchoy,
08:12for the typhoon Butchoy,
08:14the generally northwestward
08:17or the north-northwestward movement
08:19will continue until tomorrow.
08:20So, within the forecast period,
08:22the movement of the typhoon
08:24will decelerate or slow down.
08:26By Monday,
08:27the movement will be north-northward.
08:31And it will decelerate.
08:33So, the movement will be generally northward
08:35or north-northwestward
08:37for the remainder of the forecast period.
08:39So, Tuesday onwards,
08:41the generally northward
08:43or the movement of the typhoon
08:45will continue towards the northern boundary
08:47of our Philippine Area of Responsibility,
08:49particularly this part of the Ryukyu Archipelago.
08:53So, we will see here that there is a distance.
08:55So, for the next 3 to 5 days,
08:57the track of this typhoon will have a distance
08:59from our country.
09:00So, for now,
09:01there is no tropical cyclone wind signal yet.
09:03But we are also removing the possibility
09:05of a signal number 1 rising
09:07in the next few days
09:08in the areas of the extreme northern Luzon
09:10and eastern section of the northern Luzon area.
09:14We are expecting further intensification
09:17of this typhoon.
09:18It is possible that it will meet
09:19the tropical storm category
09:20within the next 24 hours.
09:22And it is possible that it will meet
09:23the typhoon category
09:24by the end of Tuesday.
09:30For more information about the weather,
09:32especially on rainfall
09:34or thunderstorm advisories
09:35that are possible to be issued
09:37by our Pag-asa Regional Center
09:39in our localities,
09:40follow us on our social media accounts
09:43at DOST underscore Pag-asa.
09:45Subscribe to our YouTube channel
09:48at DOST Pag-asa Weather Report
09:50and always visit our official website
09:52at pag-asa.dost.gov.ph
09:55And that is all the latest
09:57from the Pag-asa Weather Forecasting Center.
09:59Good morning to all of us.
10:01I am Dano Villamil, reporting for NAGUULAT.