The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) hoisted Wind Signal No. 1 over parts of Cagayan and Isabela on Monday, July 22, due to the anticipated effects of severe tropical storm “Carina” (international name “Gaemi”).
As of 5 a.m., Signal No. 1 was in effect over the eastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Lal-Lo, Gonzaga) and the northeastern portion of Isabela (Divilacan, Palanan, Maconacon).
READ MORE: https://mb.com.ph/2024/7/22/signal-no-1-raised-over-parts-of-cagayan-isabela-due-to-carina
As of 5 a.m., Signal No. 1 was in effect over the eastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Lal-Lo, Gonzaga) and the northeastern portion of Isabela (Divilacan, Palanan, Maconacon).
READ MORE: https://mb.com.ph/2024/7/22/signal-no-1-raised-over-parts-of-cagayan-isabela-due-to-carina
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NewsTranscript
00:00So, let's start with our latest satellite image.
00:03As you can see, we are still monitoring these two storms inside and outside of our Philippine
00:09Area of Responsibility.
00:10The former storm Butchoy is still outside, it is still quite strong, and is in the Severe
00:16Tropical Storm category with an international name of Praperun.
00:19And as you can see, the effect is already visible in any part of our country.
00:25So, our main focus right now is this current storm that is inside our Philippine Area of
00:30Responsibility.
00:31Currently, it is still in the Severe Tropical Storm category, although it is quite strong.
00:37And currently, its latest location is 4 a.m., it is located 420 kilometers east of Tuguegarao
00:45City, Cagayan.
00:46The wind is blowing strongly, reaching up to 100 kilometers per hour in the middle,
00:51and when it blows, it reaches up to 125 kilometers per hour.
00:55At the moment, the movement of this storm is slow in the direction north-northwestward,
01:01so we expect that because of the combined effects of this storm, as well as the enhanced
01:06southwest monsoon, or the strong effect of the low wind, we expect that the weather will
01:11be rainy in a large part of our country for the next two to three days.
01:16So, this is our latest forecast track as of 5 a.m.
01:20So, let's find out the details of what is inside our latest forecast track.
01:25So, let's start with the movement of this storm.
01:28As we can see, it is possible that it will intensify into a typhoon category, while
01:33the east coast of the extreme northern zone is being shaken, until it comes out of our
01:39Philippine Area of Responsibility.
01:41And as we can also see right now, this is the cone of probability, and the area of the
01:48cone of probability is that not a single part of our country is inside the area that
01:53is highlighted by light gray.
01:55This means that the chance of us having a landfall scenario is low, or if we have a
01:59landfall scenario, it is most likely here in the area of Taiwan before it comes out of
02:04the far.
02:05And as we can also see right now, generally north-northwestward, the movement will be
02:10like that, the center is far from any part of our land.
02:15And if we can see this area that is highlighted by light orange, that is the radius or the
02:20size of this storm.
02:23In that area, we can feel the strong wind that was blown by this storm earlier.
02:28And if we can notice, not a single part of our country is inside the area that can experience
02:35strong winds.
02:36So, as of now, not a single strong wind can be experienced in any part of our country.
02:42So, based on our forecast, this storm will intensify.
02:47Most likely, the radius of this storm will widen, and most likely, the area that is highlighted
02:55by light orange will be the areas here in the northeastern portion of the mainland of
03:01Cagayan.
03:02That is why we were able to increase the tropical cyclone wind signal in some parts of the
03:06northeastern portion of Cagayan area.
03:09So, in the next few days, based on our latest track forecast, for the next 24 hours or tomorrow,
03:15the center of this storm will be visible at a distance of 415 kilometers east of Calayan,
03:21Cagayan.
03:22When Wednesday arrives, it will be at 335 kilometers northeast of Itbayat, Batanes.
03:29When Thursday arrives, it is possible that it will be at 455 kilometers north of Itbayat,
03:35Batanes.
03:36And when Friday arrives, it will be outside of our Philippine area of responsibility.
03:41And like what we mentioned earlier, although as of now, not a single area or land in our
03:48country is included in the area that is highlighted by light orange where you can feel the strong
03:54winds of this storm.
03:56But because we are expecting the forecast that this storm will intensify, the radius
04:01of the storm will increase and it will mostly affect the northeastern portion of mainland
04:06Cagayan.
04:07We have a lead time of 36 hours.
04:09This means that for the next 36 hours, it is possible to feel the strong winds brought
04:15by this storm in the areas where the tropical cyclone wind signal number 1 is high.
04:20So, the area that is highlighted, the light blue area where the tropical cyclone wind
04:26signal number 1 is high in the eastern portion of mainland Cagayan, in Santa Ana, Gataran,
04:32Bagao, Peñablanca, Lalo, and Gonzaga, as well as Isabela, Diguilan, Palanquin, and Makonakon.
04:41So, there will be strong winds in the next 36 hours in the mentioned areas.
04:47That is why our countrymen are prepared and careful.
04:52When it comes to the rains, we have rains that we can experience in our country, the
04:57aftermath of this storm, and the aftermath of the enhanced southwest monsoon.
05:04So, the emphasis is that these rains are the aftermath of the storm.
05:09Today, we are expecting 100 to 200 millimeters of rain.
05:14That is heavy to intense rainfall in the extreme northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan.
05:20Meanwhile, 50 to 100 millimeters will be experienced today or moderate to intense
05:26or moderate to heavy rainfall in the Baboyan Islands, eastern portions of mainland Cagayan,
05:32and Isabela.
05:33This is the aftermath of the storms brought by this tropical cyclone.
05:37Tomorrow, heavy to intense rainfall will be experienced in Batanes.
05:42Meanwhile, moderate to heavy or 50 to 100 millimeters can also be experienced in the
05:47Baboyan Islands and northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan.
05:52When it comes to Wednesday, the chances of heavy to intense rainfall will be low.
05:58So, mostly in the moderate to heavy rainfall, particularly in Batanes and Baboyan Islands.
06:04If we notice, the areas that will be affected by the heavy rains brought by this storm
06:10are mostly here in the extreme northern Luzon area.
06:13So, our fellow countrymen, let us be prepared and be careful for the coming days.
06:19These are the areas or heavy rainfall due to the effect of the enhanced southwest monsoon
06:25or the strongest effect of the tropical cyclone because it was covered by this storm earlier.
06:31So, a large portion of Luzon will experience heavy rains.
06:35For today, based on our latest weather advisory,
06:39100 to 200 millimeters will be experienced or heavy to intense rainfall
06:44will be experienced in La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental Mindoro.
06:50Meanwhile, moderate to heavy rainfall will be experienced here in Metro Manila,
06:55Ilocos Norte, Abra, Tarlac, Bulacan, Nueva Vizcaya, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas, and Calamian Islands.
07:05So, we will notice mostly here in the western section of Luzon,
07:09we will experience strong rainfall due to the effect of the enhanced southwest monsoon.
07:14When it comes to tomorrow, we will experience mostly the same areas.
07:18These are the heavy or moderate to heavy rainfall.
07:21100 to 200 millimeters will be experienced or heavy to intense rainfall.
07:25Tomorrow, it will be experienced in Ilocos Region, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental Mindoro.
07:32Meanwhile, moderate to heavy rainfall will be experienced here in Metro Manila,
07:36Apayau, Abra, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Nueva Vizcaya, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, and Calamian Islands.
07:46When it comes to Wednesday or July 24,
07:49we will still experience strong rainfall here in the same areas or western section of Luzon.
07:56Heavy to intense rainfall will still be experienced in Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan,
08:03Occidental Mindoro, and moderate to heavy rainfall will still be experienced in Metro Manila,
08:10Ilocos Norte, Apayau, Abra, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Nueva Vizcaya, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, and Calamian Islands.
08:21If we notice, the areas that we mentioned are mostly here in the western section of Luzon,
08:26that's why our countrymen will be aware of the possibility of flooding or earthquakes,
08:31and we should be prepared especially for areas or low-lying areas.
08:38When it comes to strong winds,
08:40the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 is high,
08:43we hope that for the next 36 hours or within the next 36 hours,
08:47we will be able to experience strong winds that will be affected by Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1.
08:53Meanwhile, strong to gale force or strong winds will still be affected by the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1.
09:03Today, strong winds are possible in the areas of Merupa, Dikaw Region, Western Visayas, Northern Samar,
09:11and Northern portion of Samar.
09:13When it comes to tomorrow, strong winds are possible in Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Metro Manila, Calabar Zone, Merupa, Dikaw Region, and entire Visayas.
09:25When it comes to Wednesday, strong winds are possible in Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabar Zone, Merupa, Dikaw Region, and entire Visayas.
09:39So, we hope that over the next 2 to 3 days, strong winds and strong rains will be affected by the combined effects of Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon.
09:53When it comes to the situation of our ocean, because the center of Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 is far away,
09:58we don't have gale warnings for now, but it is very dangerous,
10:01especially for our countrymen who have small ocean vehicles here in Silangang Baybayin and Akandurang Baybayin of our country.
10:09Because of the enhanced effect of the Southwest Monsoon and the strong winds that we will experience here in the eastern section of the country,
10:19due to the effect of Tropical Cyclone Karina,
10:22we hope that we will experience high waves in the middle to high seas.
10:31Based on our outlook, we hope that Tropical Cyclone Karina will intensify into a typhoon category in the next 24 hours.
10:40Generally, it will move north-northwestward to northward until mid-Wednesday
10:46and it is possible that the Philippine Area of Responsibility will be released on Wednesday or Thursday early in the morning.
10:52The possibility of rapid intensification or sudden intensification of Tropical Cyclone Karina will not be eliminated in the next hours.
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