10 Day Trend 24/07/2024 – Sunnier next week
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 24/07/2024.
A fairly dull end to the week with rain affecting many areas, however brighter weather is coming for the end of the weekend, and temperatures could start to climb as well.
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Annie Shuttleworth.
A fairly dull end to the week with rain affecting many areas, however brighter weather is coming for the end of the weekend, and temperatures could start to climb as well.
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Annie Shuttleworth.
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NewsTranscript
00:00We're just over three quarters of the way through July, but we've had just over half
00:04the amount of sunshine. Now, that dull theme is going to continue through the rest of this
00:09week. But next week is looking that much sunnier, drier and probably a bit hotter as well. But
00:15first of all, the dull part for the rest of this week, the jet stream is slightly south
00:19shifted at the moment. We've got low pressure dominating our weather through the rest of
00:23this week. As we head towards the weekend, though, the jet stream shape does slowly start
00:28to change. It buckles more and we develop this trough out to the west of the UK. And
00:34now the position of this trough will allow some showers to break out quite widely and
00:39potentially some heavy downpours across the southeast through Friday night. It's still
00:43a few days away, so the exact shape of it will determine exactly where the heaviest
00:48showers are. But it's quite likely we'll see some very sharp showers through Saturday before
00:52it settles down from Sunday. High pressure becoming more dominant and the jet stream
00:57becomes a more split pattern. So we won't see the strength any particularly strong areas
01:02of the jet stream, and that will allow more settled weather to develop as it pushes up
01:06to the north, driving low pressure systems just to the north of the UK through the start
01:11of next week. However, as I said, with the jet stream and low pressure dominating our
01:16weather through the rest of this week, many of us will see some spells of rain through
01:20Thursday and towards Saturday. We've got this waving frontal feature lying across central
01:26and southern areas through Thursday, and that will bring a relatively dull day for
01:30many of us. Outbreaks of rain potentially quite heavy across the south coast. Drizzly
01:35rain, particularly across the coasts and hills. Showers across northern areas. A cooler day
01:40for most of us as well. The heavy rain will likely continue across the south and east
01:44well into Thursday evening and Friday morning. But then it does start to turn a little bit
01:49more settled. You can see a slight buckling in the ice bars here, slight ridging in those
01:54ice bars that allow some more settled and sunnier weather throughout Friday. There is
02:00a weather front, though, pushing into the north and west, and that will bring the focus
02:05for heavier showers across parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland. Best of any brighter
02:09weather in the south and east. Definitely a warmer day on Friday temperatures into the
02:12mid 20s across central and southeastern areas. It does look quite fine into Friday evening
02:18into the start of next weekend of the weekend as well. You start to see the clouds starting
02:24to thicken across southern and eastern areas of England, though. That's because we're not
02:27too far away from this frontal area across the near continent. So we'll see fairly cloudy
02:33skies across southeastern areas. And it's Saturday when we've got that trough in the
02:38jet stream driving that more unsettled weather. And Sunday is when the high pressure builds
02:43in so much more settled by Sunday, but a fairly unsettled day on Saturday. So quite a big
02:48difference between Saturday and Sunday. So potentially a bright start, probably quite
02:53a lot of high level cloud around. But then it's into the afternoon. We can see some really
02:57bright colours on those showers, indicating they could be quite heavy. Now, as I mentioned,
03:03there is some uncertainty with the distribution of those showers. Currently, it looks like
03:07they could break out quite widely across western areas of Wales, southwestern England, as well
03:13as many northern areas of England and parts of Scotland as well. Whereas actually to the
03:17south and east, because we've got that cloud from that frontal system to the on the near
03:22continent, we probably won't see as many showers. Let's have a closer look at where
03:26we're most likely to have some showers. Now, this shows two different model runs from the
03:31Met Office model. And this is a 24 hour rain accumulation throughout Saturday. Now, you
03:36can see it's quite in both of these pictures. We've got quite some bright colours across
03:42northern areas of England from both of these model runs. But actually, because each model
03:47run, the position of that trough in the jet stream is varying just a little bit, that
03:52just changes the focus of some showers. And in some most recent model runs, like the one
03:56I just showed you, we've got some showers across southwestern areas. But actually, others
04:02don't have quite that amount of focus across southwestern areas. Now, it'll probably be
04:07the convergence from sea breezes that would allow these heavy showers to break out across
04:11the southwest. So, if you're in parts of south Wales, southwest England, it's worth keeping
04:15an eye on the forecast over the next couple of days. We'll have a full weekend forecast
04:18out tomorrow with more details on that shower distribution. But definitely a showery day
04:24on Saturday. Sunday, though, a very different day. High pressure dominating, probably a
04:29bright start. Plenty of sunshine through the day. Temperatures climbing to the mid 20s.
04:34We could see temperatures towards 26 degrees in the south and east, but widely in the low
04:3920s across many areas of the UK. A little bit more cloud, though, across north and western
04:44areas, Northern Ireland, Western Scotland, where we're never too far away from low pressure
04:48systems and some wet weather as well. Now, as we head into next week, those frontal systems
04:55will likely continue progress westwards, but becoming more focused across north and western
05:00areas as high pressure continues to dominate across the near continent, bringing its influence
05:06to many southern and central areas of the UK. So, it's looking actually quite settled
05:11as we head into the start of next week. Now, this is the most likely pressure pattern or
05:16regime from Tuesday and Wednesday next week. You can see we've got high pressure centred
05:21over the continent that could allow some quite heavy showers to break out, which they may
05:25spread into southeastern areas. But that's looking fairly unlikely at this stage. It
05:30actually looks like high pressure will dominate with low pressure not too far away from the
05:35north and west. So, probably cloudier skies compared to the south and east or many, many
05:39areas of southern England and Wales as well, and more rain as well. Now, in the south and
05:46east, that's where we could start to see temperatures climb into the high 20s, possibly the low
05:5130s by next week. But in the north, as we're closer to that low pressure, there won't be
05:56quite as much sunshine, so temperatures won't climb quite as high. These are the meteorograms
06:01from ECMWF, the European Long-Range Forecasting Model. We've got Glasgow on the top and Reading
06:07on the bottom. You can see Glasgow from the start of next week. It does go up a little
06:13bit. You can see the red, that's the maximum temperatures. They do go up a little bit just
06:16above average for a couple of days, probably on just the odd sunnier day. But actually,
06:21in the south, there's a clearer trend of those temperatures increasing above average through
06:26the beginning part of next week. So, it looks like we could see a fairly warm few days to
06:32start next week. As I said, temperatures in the high 20s, possibly the low 30s at best.
06:37They're definitely sunnier than it has been lately and probably drier than the end of
06:41this week as well. Notice, though, even in the south, the temperatures do dip down much
06:46closer to average by the end of next week and into the start of next weekend. And that's
06:52because the pressure pattern, or the most likely regime, is set to change a little.
06:57This is the most likely regime by Friday the 2nd of August. So, we're into the beginning
07:01of August here. And actually, those low pressure systems that were centred more to the north
07:05of the UK will probably start to shift a little bit further south, becoming more dominant
07:09across the UK, spreading wetter weather, cooler weather more widely, with the best of any
07:15drier and brighter weather across southeastern areas. Now, as I mentioned, there is a risk
07:20of some quite heavy showers through Saturday. So, it is worth keeping up to date with our
07:24forecast. And you can do that by subscribing to our YouTube channel. See you soon. Bye
07:28bye.