Mencermati Tren Pelebaran Defisit APBN 2024
Kementerian Keuangan mencatat Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2024 mengalami defisit sebesar Rp93,4 triliun pada Juli 2024. Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani Indrawati mengatakan, defisit anggaran per Juli 2024 ini setara 0,41% terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB).
Menurut Sri Mulyani, angka defisit tersebut masih kecil dibandingkan total target defisit APBN tahun ini sebesar 2,29%.
Defisit APBN ini disebabkan karena pendapatan negara yang turun sementara belanja negara meningkat. Sri Mulyani mengatakan, pendapatan negara per Juli 2024 tercatat mencapai Rp 1.545,4 triliun atau turun 4,3% yoy dari periode yang sama tahun lalu. Realisasi ini setara 55,1% dari target APBN 2024.
Menurut Sri Mulyani, angka defisit tersebut masih kecil dibandingkan total target defisit APBN tahun ini sebesar 2,29%.
Defisit APBN ini disebabkan karena pendapatan negara yang turun sementara belanja negara meningkat. Sri Mulyani mengatakan, pendapatan negara per Juli 2024 tercatat mencapai Rp 1.545,4 triliun atau turun 4,3% yoy dari periode yang sama tahun lalu. Realisasi ini setara 55,1% dari target APBN 2024.
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TVTranscript
00:00Indonesia's financial crisis
00:05Indonesia's financial crisis
00:13Minister of Finance, Indra Wati reported that the budget of the National Income and Spending, or APBN,
00:19until July 2024, experienced a deficit of 93.4 trillion rupiah.
00:24This means that the realization is equal to 0.41% of domestic brutal products.
00:35In our APBN report, the Ministry of Finance noted that until July 2024,
00:39the budget of the National Income and Spending, or APBN, experienced a deficit of 93.4 trillion rupiah.
00:45This deficit is equal to 0.41% of domestic brutal products.
00:50Compared to the deficit of APBN, this means that the income is smaller than the number of government spending.
00:56More specifically, the national income until July 2024 was a total of 1,545.4 trillion rupiah,
01:03or down 4.3% compared to the same period last year.
01:07The income comes from taxes, interest payments, and the National Income and Spending, or PNBP.
01:13The national income until the end of July 2024 was a total of 1,638.8 trillion rupiah.
01:29This means that we have spent 49.3% of the national income.
01:37If we look at the growth of our spending, it is quite high, and this is consistent.
01:42Although compared to last month, which was around 14%, the growth has decreased a bit, but this is a high growth.
01:48If you look at the growth in GDP, why our contribution seems to be shrinking, it can be explained later.
01:57Then, from the total post-tour, in July we experienced a deficit of 93.4 trillion rupiah, or 0.41% of GDP.
02:09This is still small compared to the total target of this year's deficit.
02:14Nevertheless, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati stated that from the side of the primary balance sheet,
02:19it was recorded that the surplus was still as large as 179.3 trillion rupiah.
02:23Meanwhile, when the national income fell, the national spending had reached 1,638.8 trillion rupiah,
02:30or 12.2% up to the end of July 2024.
02:34The sponsorship is provided by the Ministry of Institute, Ministry of Non-Institute Sponsorship, and Transfer to Area.
02:41From Jakarta, Harjo Padmo, IDX Channel.
02:48Meanwhile, in the midst of various global crises, Indonesia has become one of the bright spots
02:53that is able to show a fairly resilient economic performance.
02:58The head of the fiscal policy body, Febrio Natan Kacaribu,
03:01affirmed that even though it experienced a deficit of 93.4 trillion rupiah,
03:06the National Bank of Indonesia still played a role as a shock absorber for the economic movement last semester,
03:13where the dynamics and challenges of global pre-economy create synergies.
03:18Domestic pre-economy is getting stronger, supported by pre-economy that grows consistently on global growth,
03:24coupled with Indonesia's economic condition, which experienced a growth trend of more than 5% in the past six quarters.
03:31In addition, Indonesia also managed to reduce inflation rapidly.
03:40The National Bank of Indonesia will continue to play a role as a shock absorber.
03:43We are grateful that at the moment, in terms of commodity prices for ICP,
03:50we see that the realization is more or less the same as our assumptions for the 2024 APBN.
03:57What is quite deviate is the exchange rate.
04:02The exchange rate in the 2024 APBN is Rp15,000.
04:05So far, the year-to-date is around Rp15,900.
04:10This will of course add to the burden of subsidies and compensation from the BBM energy sector.
04:19However, as we can see, it has been reported in the LAPSEM for our outlook until the end of the year.
04:26This will still be under control and within the limits.
04:30Good morning, everyone.
04:31To discuss our interesting topic this time, related to the trend of the APBN deficit expansion in 2024,
04:36we have connected via Zoom with Mr. Eko Listianto, Deputy Director of Indef.
04:41Hello, good morning, Mr. Eko.
04:44Yes, good morning, Mr. Bras.
04:45Yes, greetings, sir.
04:47Alhamdulillah, how are you?
04:48Good morning.
04:49Thank you for your time.
04:50And we will also greet Mr. Angga Wiral, Secretary-General of BPP HIPMI.
04:53Good morning, Mr. Angga.
04:55Good morning, Mr. Bras.
04:56Greetings.
04:57Greetings to you too.
04:58Thank you for the opportunity.
04:59We will review, but first, Mr. Eko, if we look at the data that has been reported,
05:04our APBN deficit is 93% or around 0.41% compared to PDB.
05:09What can we review with these figures?
05:13Yes, the deficit is caused, of course, because there is a dynamic aspect in receiving and shopping,
05:21as you said, Mr. Bras.
05:22Okay.
05:23If we look at it, 0.41% compared to PDB, there is an increase, but this is a reasonable thing,
05:33actually, because according to the level of shopping, the government is usually getting closer in December,
05:43which leads to more aggressive shopping, bigger shopping.
05:50So, if on the way from month to month, there is an increase, that is actually a reasonable thing.
05:56But on the other hand, the increase in the deficit is actually related to a decrease in the level of receiving.
06:02If we look at our APBN release yesterday, in July, there was still a decrease in the level of receiving from the target.
06:12The target is still minus, although the minus percentage is small.
06:18The picture is something like that.
06:20Yes, but what can we see with the deficit distribution that we see happened in the last three months?
06:27Is it related to the use of the APBN, in terms of receiving?
06:32Or do you see that this trend will still have a potential continuation?
06:38Yes, if you look at the potential, will the deficit continue?
06:42I think so, because actually our APBN 2024 is designed for a deficit.
06:49And the maximum deficit is actually around 2.29% of our deficit target.
06:57So, there is still room for the deficit to expand if planned.
07:01But there is also a prognosis of an increase in the deficit, which is said to be up to 2.7%.
07:09But overall, it means that there is indeed a strategy to boost shopping.
07:17And there is a possibility that it will expand our deficit.
07:22Hopefully, it will still be a target.
07:25Okay, from an entrepreneur's point of view, how do you see it, Angga Wirat?
07:29Related to the current condition, is the contribution from the use of the implementation of APBN funds
07:35really felt the impact on the business world in Indonesia?
07:40Yes, of course.
07:41Actually, the APBN is one of the instruments to drive growth.
07:50So, of course, as Mr. Eko said earlier, our acceptance is getting tighter.
07:59The government must be tight in spending its money on things that can boost productivity.
08:11I think this is the main key.
08:14And most importantly, how the government is able to facilitate so that investment can run smoothly.
08:26Because it's not that we want to push our industrialization,
08:34which now I see we have entered the yellow light.
08:39This is one of the events.
08:41The way is how we are able to become a country that is friendly to investment.
08:48Mr. Jokowi's government has implemented our labor laws.
08:53So, of course, there still needs to be synchronization and, of course,
08:58the same view between the ministries and the chain of command to the regional government.
09:06So that we can really be a country that is considered easy of doing business.
09:16If we look at it, our competition in Southeast Asia is very tight with Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia.
09:26And moreover, if we look at the statistics,
09:29the economic growth of the two countries, Vietnam and Malaysia, has left us quite far.
09:37So we really need to be careful.
09:41And most importantly, the future government, in my opinion,
09:44needs to build a conducive political stability.
09:48The rest, of course, needs to be synchronized and implemented to the regional government.
09:55This is the improvement of the political system, in my opinion.
10:00Maybe Mr. Eko can elaborate on this.
10:02Maybe this is beyond the context of economic implementation.
10:06But it is very important.
10:08Because from our experience in the field,
10:11sometimes the problems emerge.
10:15This is one of the examples, for example,
10:17which is a challenge in terms of land liberation for investment.
10:22This is a challenge.
10:23Then, for example, the regional government,
10:25with its efforts to increase acceptance,
10:29but suddenly increased the value of tax objects.
10:31So our land price is not competitive.
10:34So the central government wants us to be competitive,
10:37but on the other hand, the regional government,
10:39well, the important thing is that I get income in the beginning.
10:41But in the end, the investment that wants to enter,
10:44finally rethinks.
10:46Because when it is scored,
10:48our value is much lower than our neighboring countries.
10:52Although maybe we have other additional values,
10:55which is our very large market.
10:58But that's secondary, right?
11:00But when people invest,
11:01the first thing that matters is how to get in
11:04and be able to invest safely,
11:06stably, and of course efficiently.
11:08That's the key, in my opinion.
11:10This is interesting.
11:11For the application of efficiency and effectiveness,
11:13it means that the use of IPBN funds
11:15should indeed be integrated.
11:17Even the synchronization that you expect from the central government.
11:20We will discuss it again later in the next segment, Mr. Angga.
11:22And also Mr. Eko, we will pause for a moment.
11:24Mr. Mirsa, make sure you are still with us.
11:35Thank you for joining us in Market Review.
11:37In the next segment, we will present data
11:39related to the IPBN surplus and deficit in 2024.
11:42You can watch the full details on your television screen.
11:45Let's take a look at the movement from January, February,
11:48to July, 2024.
11:51From January to April,
11:53we are still recording the latest news.
11:56We will continue to update you on the latest news.
12:05In May, there was a deficit of Rp21.8 trillion.
12:10In June, there was a deficit of Rp77.3 trillion.
12:16In July, there was a deficit of Rp93.3 trillion.
12:22In July, there was a deficit of Rp93.4 trillion.
12:29Let's take a look at the movement from January to July, 2024.
12:37In April, the surplus was recorded at 0.33% of GDP.
12:43In May, the surplus was recorded at 0.31% of GDP.
12:49In June, the surplus was recorded at 0.34% of GDP.
12:52In July, the surplus was recorded at 0.41% of GDP.
12:55Let's take a look at the movement from January to July, 2024.
13:00The country's income reached Rp1,545.4 trillion,
13:05or 55.1% of the target.
13:08Meanwhile, the country's expenditure was 49.3% of the target,
13:12or Rp1,638.8 trillion.
13:17We will continue our discussion with Mr. Iko Lustiato and Mr. Angga Wira.
13:22Mr. Iko, based on the data that has been provided to the audience,
13:27what do you think about the trend of the movement of our deficit?
13:31You said that the potential is still wide.
13:34How about the country's expenditure?
13:36Are the efforts to increase the country's expenditure
13:39will widen the deficit?
13:41Even though we know that the IMF has issued a warning.
13:46Yes, the first one is related to the income,
13:50as shown in the figure.
13:52Actually, from the cumulative side,
13:55until July, it was Rp1,500 or 55%.
13:59That's pretty good.
14:02But because of other reasons,
14:05we target our deficit to be quite wide in 2024,
14:10so even though the income is already 55%,
14:13the trend still has a negative growth.
14:19It's still around 4.8%,
14:22so it's around 5%.
14:25It's better than the previous month, June.
14:28But still, the number is decreasing.
14:30It's like an early warning for the income.
14:34As for the expenditure,
14:36our typical expenditure is always in the fourth quarter.
14:43Sometimes, almost 50% of the expenditure
14:47is in the fourth quarter,
14:49so the execution is in the fourth quarter.
14:51Because there are bureaucratic aspects
14:55that can't be done quickly, etc.
14:58If we look at the future,
15:02until December,
15:04my guess is that the deficit will widen
15:07from month to month,
15:09hoping not to exceed the APBN target.
15:13Actually, our target deficit is around Rp522 trillion
15:18until the end of the year.
15:19If it's now Rp93 trillion,
15:21it's still quite safe in the fiscal context.
15:26But the next expansion will happen.
15:30Of course, I hope it will stop at the Rp500 trillion
15:33according to the target and plan.
15:35Even though there is an outlook for Rp2.7 trillion.
15:39If it's Rp2.7 trillion,
15:41it means that more SBN will be issued.
15:46And this will actually affect the sector,
15:50the business world,
15:51Mr. Agawira and his friends.
15:54It's like the financial sector
15:57will be more tempted by the SBN
15:59which is quite tempting.
16:03On the other hand,
16:04the Bank of Indonesia has SRBI, etc.
16:07to maintain the stability of the Rupiah.
16:09There is also an incentive,
16:11the Bunga.
16:13If both monetary and fiscal are contracted,
16:16the business world will not be able to move.
16:18Something like that.
16:19There will be challenges like that in the future.
16:22That's it. Potential 2.7% for GDP.
16:25So, what do you think, Mr. Agawira?
16:27Do you see this deficit expansion
16:29as a positive value that is expected
16:31for the business sector?
16:33Especially in terms of funding,
16:35for example from the private sector,
16:36or the government with incentives,
16:38or other policies.
16:41Of course, with our regime,
16:47there is a deficit expansion.
16:49That actually wants to push
16:52to create productivity.
16:55But of course,
16:57as Mr. Eko said,
17:01the budget patterns
17:04or government spending patterns,
17:06both central and regional,
17:08are not yet
17:10fulfilling the priorities
17:13that we expect.
17:14And also, in the context of
17:16how to absorb the budget,
17:19this, Mr. Eko,
17:21we need to correct it.
17:22Because this is something that always repeats
17:24from year to year.
17:25It should be,
17:26the fast spending is at the beginning,
17:29not at the end.
17:31If it's at the end,
17:33it means that we are losing momentum,
17:37losing time.
17:39These 10 months are very valuable.
17:43It's like if we build a house unit,
17:45it's already done.
17:47But why do they just finish it,
17:50or sometimes they have to
17:52move to a new budget,
17:54the absorption.
17:55This is something that is confusing.
17:57When in the context of budget absorption,
17:59and it should also be noted,
18:01and I always criticize this,
18:03when the KPI from the Ministry of Institutions
18:06or the regional government
18:08is always about budget absorption.
18:10So, sometimes people
18:12compete at the end
18:14to create an event
18:16that is real.
18:18This is what we need to criticize together.
18:20Even though the KPI should be used
18:22when the budget is used
18:24for productive things.
18:26Not the absorption.
18:28If the absorption is measured,
18:30just ask elementary school kids
18:32to manage the government.
18:35We don't need extraordinary people.
18:38So, there should be other mechanisms,
18:41from the Ministry of Finance,
18:43or maybe the budget body
18:45in the new government,
18:46to determine the KPI
18:48from the Ministry of Institutions,
18:50regional government,
18:51not only about budget absorption.
18:53So, it's like the regional government
18:55or the Ministry of Institutions
18:57are afraid if the budget is not absorbed.
18:59Right?
19:00So, sometimes,
19:02so that in the next year,
19:04there won't be budget reduction.
19:06This is always repeated.
19:07Maybe Indef can give
19:09an exact formula.
19:11So, we have a budget limit.
19:15We agree that we have a budget limit.
19:18The budget should be supported
19:20for productive things.
19:22To support growth.
19:24There should be a specific strategy.
19:26Okay, this is interesting.
19:28So, what should we do
19:30so that this deficit
19:32can be useful for the development
19:34of the business world?
19:36As you said,
19:38how to coordinate,
19:40synchronize the regional policy,
19:42so that the hope of opening
19:44the investment in the region
19:46can be realized with the business.
19:48Then, the various policies
19:50on how to use the budget
19:52can be implemented at the end of the year.
19:55Yes, I agree with what Angga said.
19:57The picture is,
19:59if we want to push the budget,
20:01the deficit,
20:03just spreading the deficit,
20:05will not necessarily increase
20:07the economy.
20:08Because there are other constraints,
20:10as Angga said.
20:11When will it be absorbed?
20:13If it's absorbed in 2024,
20:15the momentum will be gone.
20:16So, it's just to adjust
20:19or reach the target
20:21for export only,
20:23or just spend it.
20:25But the economic impact will be reduced.
20:27In my opinion, in the future,
20:29there must be improvements
20:31on how to spend this
20:33so that it has an impact on the economy,
20:35or this deficit has an impact on the economy,
20:37it must be ensured that
20:39maximum in the middle of the semester,
20:41like now,
20:43let's say it's realized,
20:44for example, 50% of the target.
20:46If this is still very small,
20:48only Rp. 93 trillion.
20:50If it is said to be pushed at the beginning,
20:52it has an impact on the economy.
20:55We hope it will happen.
20:57In my opinion,
20:59the same pattern will occur.
21:01In the fourth trimester,
21:02it will accelerate again.
21:04There will be a moment of low balance,
21:07and also the moment of budget absorption
21:10which is always in the fourth trimester.
21:14This is a problem both in the center and in the region.
21:17Secondly,
21:19there is a challenge in terms of acceptance.
21:23But we hope that
21:25it will not suddenly apply
21:27new policies
21:29that burden the business world.
21:31If that happens,
21:33our economy will be even more difficult
21:35to grow according to the target.
21:37Okay. So there are still many challenges,
21:39even though the efforts
21:41to reduce the budget
21:43to 27%,
21:45but we hope there will be results.
21:47Mr. Eko and Mr. Angga,
21:49who feel from the business world.
21:51We will see later how in this transition period,
21:53the focus of the government
21:55with the expansion of the deficit
21:57can really provide a wide benefit
21:59to be able to see economic activities
22:01in Indonesia,
22:03from the center to the region.
22:05Thank you for the information,
22:07data and analysis
22:09that have been conveyed by Mr. Eko
22:11and Mr. Sanggawira as a businessman.
22:13Good health, Mr. Eko and Mr. Angga.