Menteri Keuangan (Menkeu) Sri Mulyani melaporkan defisit fiskal tahun 2024 mendekati target yang ditetapkan dalam undang-undang Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2024. Dengan demikian, APBN 2024 secara keseluruhan ditutup dengan sangat baik dibandingkan dengan kondisi semester I tahun 2024.
Sebelumnya pada semester I 2024, Bendahara Negara itu mengatakan penerimaan negara mengalami tekanan dan kontraksi. Namun, kondisinya sudah mulai pulih pada semester II 2024, sehingga pada akhir 2024 dapat mencatatkan pertumbuhan.
Sri Mulyani menuturkan penerimaan negara masih menunjukkan pertumbuhan yang luar biasa, mengingat di tengah situasi yang tidak mudah pada 2024. Namun di sisi lain, Sri Mulyani mengakui penerimaan negara tersebut tidak mencapai target 2024 yang dibidik sebesar Rp2.802,3 triliun, karena target 2024 waktu itu dibuat cukup tinggi.
Berdasarkan kinerja hingga akhir tahun, Sri Mulyani menyebut APBN 2024 relatif sehat dan aman, dan menjadi bekal yang kuat untuk memasuki 2025.
Sebelumnya pada semester I 2024, Bendahara Negara itu mengatakan penerimaan negara mengalami tekanan dan kontraksi. Namun, kondisinya sudah mulai pulih pada semester II 2024, sehingga pada akhir 2024 dapat mencatatkan pertumbuhan.
Sri Mulyani menuturkan penerimaan negara masih menunjukkan pertumbuhan yang luar biasa, mengingat di tengah situasi yang tidak mudah pada 2024. Namun di sisi lain, Sri Mulyani mengakui penerimaan negara tersebut tidak mencapai target 2024 yang dibidik sebesar Rp2.802,3 triliun, karena target 2024 waktu itu dibuat cukup tinggi.
Berdasarkan kinerja hingga akhir tahun, Sri Mulyani menyebut APBN 2024 relatif sehat dan aman, dan menjadi bekal yang kuat untuk memasuki 2025.
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TVTranscript
00:00Indra Awati, Minister of Finance, claimed that the PBN's energy is relatively healthy throughout the year 2024, with positive achievements in a number of indicators.
00:18This positive energy is a strong foundation in facing the economic crisis in 2025.
00:24Minister of Finance, Sri Mulyani, in his welcome at the opening of the Indonesian FEC Stock Exchange,
00:32then claimed that the fiscal deficit in 2024 has approached the target set in the State Budget and State Spending Law.
00:39Sri Mulyani said that the energy of the PBN in the second half of 2024 experienced a rebound compared to the first half of 2024 which was full of pressure.
00:48This is shown by the deficit of the PBN that has approached the initial APBN laws, which is projected to be 2.29% of domestic brutal products.
00:58Thus, Sri Mulyani assessed that the energy of the PBN throughout 2024 is relatively healthy and this condition is a strong support in facing 2025.
01:08I would like to say that the deficit of the PBN in 2024 has approached the initial APBN laws.
01:19This is an extraordinary result, much smaller than the semester report which was predicted to be 2.7%, much smaller.
01:34This means that the APBN will be closed in 2024, relatively healthy and safe, and it is a strong support to enter 2025.
01:52Sri Mulyani assessed that the State Spending Law which experienced pressure in the first half of 2024 has rebounded in the second half of 2024,
02:00although it was admitted that it did not grow significantly and did not reach the target that was set again, namely as big as Rp2,802.5 trillion.
02:09Meanwhile, the State Spending Law in 2024 also recorded a significant increase, especially supported by the Spending of the Ministry and Institutions which overall increased by more than 6%.
02:20Various sources of IDX Channel
02:26Yes, Mr. Mirso, to discuss our topic this time, the strategy to keep the PBN healthy in 2025 has been continued through ZOOM with Mr. Satya Widayudha,
02:35he is a member of the National Priority Energy Council 2020-2024.
02:39Yes, hello, how are you, Mr. Satya?
02:42Good, thank God. How are you?
02:44How are you?
02:45Good, thank you for your time, Mr. Satya, and there is also Mr. Eko Lestianto, the Deputy Director of Indef.
02:52Hello, how are you, Mr. Eko?
02:54Alhamdulillah, how are you, Mr. Pras?
02:56Good, thank you for your time.
02:58And before discussing further, Mr. Eko, we will first review the energy of the State Spending Law throughout 2024 from Indef's perspective, what is it like?
03:08Yes, it was also stated by the Deputy Director that the deficit is not as wide as in the previous outlook,
03:16meaning that there are risks in the economy that tend to decline a little in the second semester,
03:24where the first semester has more geopolitical aspects, in the country there is also a political gap.
03:33I think overall, although the tendency is more positive in 2024,
03:40it means that we can maintain the deficit according to the initial target,
03:44but what must also be seen is that in the context of the policy of the State Spending Law,
03:50we set the deficit, why should it be a deficit?
03:53That's because we want to chase economic growth.
03:56So if the deficit is maintained and the economic growth reaches 5.2,
04:00in fact, this is an ideal scenario or ideal realization.
04:06But if the deficit is maintained but the economic growth is still slightly below the target,
04:11in fact, the ability to push the State Spending Law to optimally support the economy,
04:21in my opinion, this is still less than the maximum,
04:25because the aspect of the deficit is maintained,
04:27but if we look at it, it is also due to the latest policy,
04:31they say that there are a lot of trips in Najib Atasi,
04:35and so on, so it slows down,
04:37which slows down at the end, it slows down at the end,
04:39I think the bureaucrats realize that,
04:42so they have planned to do some activities that may be a bit big,
04:46the budget is then slowed down,
04:48that can indeed suppress the deficit,
04:50but on the other hand, of course,
04:52a little more will sacrifice the contribution of the State Spending Law for the economy,
04:56and that may be what happens,
04:58even though we have to wait for data from the State Spending Law for economic growth.
05:02Okay, so overall it's okay,
05:04if we look at the State Spending Law in 2024, right?
05:08Yes, more prudent,
05:10yes, it really seems like the Ministry of Finance or Mr. Srimoyani
05:14is using a strategy to be more careful,
05:16because maybe looking at the outlook ahead,
05:19there was a geopolitical tension earlier,
05:21which is still not really reduced.
05:24Right, right.
05:25This is interesting.
05:26Next, we see from the review of the energy sector policy,
05:29which is the fuel of Indonesia's economy throughout 2024,
05:34how do you see it,
05:36how is it related to the state budget,
05:38is there an energy subsidy there too?
05:40Yes, if we look at it,
05:42I agreed with Mr. Aseko,
05:46if the condition of the Ministry of Finance,
05:49we can say it's prudent,
05:51for 2024.
05:53Because the Ministry of Finance has only three keys,
05:56if I look at how we manage acceptance and spending,
06:00as well as managing debts,
06:03the third key,
06:04so the acceptance and spending,
06:05the condition is that there is a debt in it.
06:09That's what I think,
06:10if it can be done well,
06:12especially if we are in accordance with our APBN laws,
06:163% is the maximum ceiling for acceptance and spending,
06:21I see it far below here,
06:23even though in the 2-point range,
06:25but still below than 3%,
06:27so we need to appreciate it.
06:30However, we also have to think,
06:33one, if we talk about energy,
06:36there is an acceptance aspect,
06:38but there is also a spending aspect,
06:40because there is a subsidy.
06:42Therefore, in terms of acceptance,
06:44we must be surprised,
06:45especially how we see the level of oil and gas production on our land,
06:50currently, which tends to decline,
06:53however, according to Paku in 2025,
06:57around 600,000 barrels per day,
07:00this will certainly affect the balance between acceptance and spending.
07:09So, for example, if there is a tendency for the price of oil to rise,
07:14we will have more acceptance than before,
07:20or the exchange rate may also rise,
07:22but we forget that we are still net imported
07:26rather than oil.
07:27In my opinion, this is quite a sensitive issue
07:31on how we manage our energy in the future.
07:35If we look at the key,
07:38in terms of energy spending,
07:40it is precisely the target,
07:42because we see that until now,
07:46the pattern of our subsidies is still open,
07:51especially for distribution,
07:53either BBM or LPG.
07:55Electricity can still be categorized,
07:58segmented properly,
08:00because the 450 VA is fully subsidized,
08:03the 900 are divided,
08:05now it is also going to be evaluated
08:08to make sure that the group that is really low
08:13will be subsidized.
08:15The same is true for LPG.
08:16LPG still uses an open distribution pattern,
08:19although there is awareness in several places,
08:23there have been many attempts
08:25to use data from poor groups
08:29to provide LPG savings of 3 kg.
08:34But for more than that,
08:37there is still a penetration from the policy
08:43that limits it,
08:44it is still not hard enough,
08:47or not well carried out,
08:49because the open distribution pattern
08:51opens up opportunities
08:54rather than expanding energy subsidies overall.
08:58Such things are of course a challenge
09:01from the government
09:03on how we manage our subsidies.
09:07On the other hand,
09:09in terms of the overall scenario,
09:12our energy is shifting from fossil fuel energy
09:15to new and renewable energy.
09:17Although the dependence on fossil fuel energy
09:20is still large.
09:21If we look at coal, it is around 40.46%,
09:25oil is around 30%,
09:27gas is 16%,
09:29and LPG is 13.09%.
09:32So, the dependence on fossil fuel energy
09:34is still quite high.
09:36What we will do later
09:38is to turn to LPG
09:40as an energy source that is environmentally friendly.
09:43This is also one way
09:46to manage spending
09:48from the country's finances
09:50in 2025 onward.
09:52Okay, Mr. Satya.
09:53Based on the data that has been provided,
09:56the energy subsidy
09:58is also a concern from the government.
10:00What reflections can we see
10:02for energy efficiency in 2024
10:04that is quite positive
10:06to make our energy efficiency
10:08healthier and more prudent in 2025?
10:14Yes.
10:15I think it's true what Mr. Satya said earlier.
10:18It is very important how to ensure
10:20that the energy subsidy in the future
10:22does not plummet.
10:23Learn from the situation, let's say, last year.
10:26Like in 2024.
10:27Because no matter what,
10:29the subsidy that is still open
10:31is indeed one of the concerns.
10:33Sometimes,
10:34suddenly, at the end of the story,
10:36it could be a risk
10:38of a plummet in the APBN.
10:41In 2025,
10:42the geopolitical situation
10:44will not be as bad as in 2024.
10:48Because,
10:49if there is an American leader
10:51who is modeled after Trump,
10:54it's different.
10:55The way the government
10:56is like we have a lot of experience with it.
10:59And that possibility
11:01will also create geopolitical tensions,
11:03especially in terms of trade,
11:05in terms of economy,
11:06it will be more volatile.
11:09From there,
11:10maybe there is also the investment.
11:12Because if we look at it so far,
11:14the Middle East conflict
11:16as one of the countries
11:18that has a lot of oil there,
11:20it still happens.
11:21And it certainly has a risk of oil prices.
11:24On the other hand,
11:25there is also China,
11:26whose economy is slowing down.
11:28So, in various situations,
11:30of course,
11:31in this context,
11:33it will also hit energy.
11:36There are two things.
11:37From the production side,
11:39we have imported.
11:40But the second thing is also important,
11:42the money,
11:43can we keep it in the 16,000?
11:45Because if we can't,
11:47with our situation
11:49very dependent on imports,
11:50it will also create
11:52self-reliance.
11:53There is also a risk there.
11:55Okay, the challenge
11:56means it still looks pretty strong
11:58in 2025.
12:00What is the highest level?
12:01We will discuss later in the next segment.
12:03We still have time,
12:04we will break for a while.
12:05Mr. Mirsa, make sure you are still with us.
12:24Yes, you are still watching Market Review.
12:26Mr. Mirsa, in the next segment,
12:27we will return with some data.
12:29Related to state income,
12:31how the movement from 2018
12:33to 2025 is projected.
12:35Yes, as you can see
12:37on your TV screen,
12:39the trend is quite good
12:41from the state income side.
12:42It tends to go up.
12:44Because we know there is a decline in 2020
12:46due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
12:47But the target in 2025
12:49is 3 trillion.
12:51Hopefully it can be achieved.
12:53Next, the APBN deficit.
12:57The movement was quite high.
13:006.14% in 2020.
13:02It tends to go down to the lowest level.
13:041.65% in 2023.
13:082.29% in 2024.
13:122.53% in 2025.
13:16Let's continue with the discussion
13:18with Mr. Ekoles Tianto,
13:19Deputy Director of Indef,
13:20and Mr. Tewidya,
13:22Member of the National Energy Council
13:24for 2020-2024.
13:26In this condition,
13:28what do we need to focus on?
13:30As you can see,
13:32geopolitically,
13:34and domestically,
13:36there is a challenge from the fiscal monitor.
13:38There needs to be
13:40a framework
13:42or policies
13:44that need to be
13:46done by the government.
13:50Strategically,
13:52how to deal with the APBN in 2025
13:54can be as planned.
13:56First,
13:58we can control it domestically.
14:00For example,
14:02we are trying to
14:04digitize
14:06from the acceptance side.
14:08With the Cortex system,
14:10accelerating the process,
14:12reducing administrative errors.
14:14It can be one way
14:16to increase our tax base.
14:18Extensification
14:20must also be done
14:22from the acceptance side.
14:24One more thing,
14:26it can't be done every year,
14:28but it has to be done.
14:30Even though
14:32it was done last year,
14:34it has to be optimized.
14:36What about the foreign policy?
14:38It's an external issue
14:40that we can't fully control.
14:44But at least,
14:46there are challenges
14:48like the possibility of SBN yield
14:50is still quite high.
14:52Because the possibility
14:54of the decline of the BNP
14:56will also be more moderate in 2025.
15:02Trump will launch
15:04a 2.0 trade war.
15:06It will definitely have implications
15:08to the supply chain and so on.
15:10The context will hit
15:12the inflation.
15:14There are sides that must be anticipated.
15:16But once again,
15:18it's better to
15:20keep the domestic first.
15:22But what can be maintained
15:24is how the acceptance
15:26and spending can be effective.
15:28Second,
15:30the efficiency of spending is important.
15:32So start to make it efficient
15:34for activities that have no impact
15:36on the economy.
15:38Just say that yesterday
15:40meetings have been started
15:42and then it will be done
15:44in each ministries,
15:46it will be better.
15:48This is interesting.
15:50The energy subsidy budget
15:52in ABBN 2025
15:54has a total of
15:56IDR 203.4 trillion.
15:58The LPG subsidy is IDR 113.7 trillion.
16:00The electricity subsidy
16:02is IDR 89.7 trillion.
16:04Is this scheme
16:06ideal for 2025?
16:08Yes.
16:10It's a conservative scheme
16:12based on
16:14the previous ABBN.
16:16Of course,
16:18in the future,
16:20I'm sure that Mr. Prabowo
16:22and Mr. Lela Ladia
16:24will announce
16:26the mechanism
16:28to make the subsidy
16:30the target
16:32for certain groups of people.
16:34Because if we look at
16:36the number of subsidies
16:38and compensations,
16:40the number is fantastic.
16:42Of course,
16:44if we can make it more efficient
16:46and more targeted,
16:48so that the subsidy
16:50is not lost,
16:52but the subsidy is reallocated.
16:54So, the previous one was a commodity
16:56that still has
16:58a left-right gap
17:00because the distribution pattern is open.
17:02Later, it will be more
17:04targeted. I'm sure
17:06the reduction will be significant.
17:08That is one
17:10of the items
17:12that can be said
17:14to make our ABBN more efficient.
17:16What I'm worried about
17:18is related to what
17:20Mr. Seiko said about the domestic policy
17:22of the United States
17:24with Trump as the president.
17:26So, it's more
17:28domestic-centric than
17:30multilateralism.
17:32Because the understanding
17:34of Trump
17:36makes America great again.
17:38We depend on the energy context.
17:40Our LPG imports are huge
17:42from America.
17:44So, what I'm worried about
17:46is that America will
17:48prioritize domestic rather than
17:50allowing the commodities
17:52to be exported.
17:54Indonesia needs to
17:56pay attention
17:58to the context because
18:00we are still
18:02the largest importer of LPG
18:04from America.
18:06The price is
18:08cheaper
18:10compared to LPG
18:12in the Middle East.
18:14I think we need to
18:16pay special attention to this.
18:18On the other hand,
18:20we need to change
18:22the policy.
18:24For example, LPG
18:26can be changed to city gas.
18:28Because city gas
18:30is
18:32composed of chemicals.
18:34It's not propane and butane
18:36but more like methane.
18:38We use a lot of methane.
18:40If we don't have enough propane,
18:42why can't we produce LPG
18:44domestically?
18:46This will reduce
18:48the import dependence
18:50in America.
18:52This is just an illustration
18:54of the needs
18:56of our national oil.
18:58From several articles
19:00I've read,
19:02our country's deficit
19:04is about 396 trillion
19:06trillion.
19:08Of course, it uses several assumptions
19:10because it depends on the price of oil
19:12and also the exchange rate
19:14when we calculate
19:16about 396.
19:18If we look at our
19:20consumption of LPG,
19:22the most dominant transportation sector
19:24is 49%.
19:26If we can reduce
19:28transportation,
19:30will it be with more
19:32electric cars?
19:34It will reduce or even
19:36convert
19:38from BPM to BPG.
19:40To gas fuel.
19:42It will also reduce
19:44the consumption of oil
19:46that we have been importing.
19:48In the industry sector,
19:50it's about 34%.
19:52So in the industry, it's the same.
19:54Maybe there will be
19:56digitalization,
19:58reformation in the industry sector.
20:00Of course, it will also
20:02reduce the consumption of oil
20:04in the industry sector.
20:06Electric power,
20:08although small,
20:10still consumes about 8%
20:12of the total
20:14national production
20:16plus imports.
20:18And also the aviation sector.
20:20So if we can manage
20:22several sectors
20:24in this way,
20:26of course it will reduce the total
20:28import of oil and LPG.
20:30That's what needs to be
20:32monitored and controlled.
20:34How do we focus more
20:36on the empowerment and development
20:38of renewable energy in Indonesia.
20:40This is just one sector,
20:42the energy sector,
20:44it seems to be quite large
20:46in terms of use and LPG.
20:48How do you see the target of
20:503 trillion in 2025?
20:52We know that in early 2025,
20:5412% of the GDP has been stated
20:56not to be for complete goods and services.
20:58In other words, it is quite large,
21:00but it has been limited to luxury goods.
21:02Do you see this as a fresh wind
21:04or not in 2025?
21:06Yes, first of all,
21:08the government also listens
21:10to the current situation.
21:12Even though it is the last moment,
21:14it still means there is a policy
21:16that if it is not ready,
21:18it can be postponed.
21:20In my opinion, the context is good
21:22to listen to the aspirations of the community.
21:24Is this a fresh wind?
21:26Because of the context of 2025,
21:28there are still many challenges.
21:30I think it's a fresh wind
21:32at least from the government's side
21:34who can see or capture
21:36the current situation
21:38in a good response.
21:40So with that,
21:42the business world
21:44will be more optimistic
21:46when looking ahead
21:48that indeed in 2025
21:50there are many challenges
21:52and every year there must be challenges.
21:54Every business must move.
21:56I think that is one of the
21:58backbones to be able to
22:00achieve,
22:02let's say, the receipt of Rp3 trillion earlier.
22:04Because taxes are from
22:06profits, from profitable businesses.
22:08So we hope
22:10the business world
22:12has improved, there are good indicators
22:14in our PMI has started
22:16to be more expansive,
22:18hopefully it will continue.
22:20From there, we can
22:22try to be optimistic,
22:24even though the challenges, especially from the external
22:26side, are not easy
22:28because it is out of Indonesia's control.
22:30Something like that.
22:32That's it, various efforts have been made
22:34to be able to maintain how our tax ratio
22:36is also getting better.
22:38The state's receipt can also be according to the target,
22:40so that the PBI will also be more prudent
22:42like what you said earlier.
22:44Unfortunately, time is limited.
22:46Thank you very much for your time,
22:48sharing updates and information you have provided.
22:50Thank you also for the analysis you have provided
22:52to the audience today.
22:54Congratulations on continuing your activities.