NCAAF Best Bets: College Football Season Countdown & Key Games
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00:00Welcome to our number two live right here on this Tuesday on
00:07the early line on sports grid.
00:09We are just five five days away from the start of a new college
00:13football season.
00:14That is Saturday.
00:16It is week zero and we get you set for it in just a moment.
00:20We'll look at the PGA Tour postseason our guy Keith Stewart
00:24on the road following all along with what is happening in the
00:27FedEx Cup playoffs.
00:28We'll look back at Memphis preview the BMW championship out
00:32in Denver and then it becomes win total Tuesday to end out
00:36this second hour a focus on the NFC West can the 49ers actually
00:42win a Lombardi trophy.
00:44Will the Rams be back in the playoff hunt?
00:46What about Seattle with first year head coach Mike McDonald
00:50and can Arizona find its way back as well with a fully healthy
00:54Kyla Marie for the entirety of 2024 a lot to get into.
00:58Here DRS in this second hour two more hours to go up until
01:0211 a.m.
01:03Eastern and maybe the biggest question then you being a college
01:06football guy.
01:07You got to find this out like this Georgia Tech bring the
01:09rambling wrecked car on the road to Dublin Ireland.
01:12Like are they going to be able to drive that bad boy out like
01:14they do at home in Atlanta?
01:16Like those are some of the things I need to know because
01:18that could be the difference in the game plan.
01:20We don't have our car today Ben.
01:22We can't be outperforming Florida State here.
01:24If that car is on the road and I see you drive out in Dublin
01:27will you look at maybe an outright victory for GT?
01:30I think they're launching it off of the port of the Gulf of
01:34Mexico going around the Atlantic and up to Dublin if I am not
01:38mistaken, maybe though DRS, maybe somehow some way the idea
01:43of the rambling wrecked car on the road or whatever Georgia
01:46Tech is brewing up at this moment is the reason for significant
01:51line movement for this week zero opener the Irish opener the
01:55Dublin debut and this ACC showdown between 10th ranked Florida
01:59State and Georgia Tech again.
02:02We mentioned this yesterday up until about a week ago, Florida
02:05State was a 13 and a half point favorite comfortably flirting
02:08with a two touchdown spread in favor of a team.
02:11We believe will be ranked in the top 10 with one of the 10 best
02:15prices to win a national championship this year and confirmed
02:18by the AP poll last week that FSU was a top 10 team in the
02:23country for whatever reason the Yellow Jackets continue to
02:27see the line work in their favor.
02:29It was 10 and a half last night.
02:31It's back up to 11 and a hook in favor of the Seminoles, but
02:34Donnie, I don't remember this much line movement for a week
02:37zero game.
02:38Maybe it's attention being paid to the spread as we get closer
02:42and closer to a college football season, but Georgia Tech is
02:46seeing the market favor the Yellow Jackets and getting this
02:49down still a two score number but most much closer to single
02:53digits than it was just about a week ago.
02:56Look, the questions are going to come up with Mike Norvell.
02:59Some are saying Ben.
02:59He lost the program in that final game of the season last year
03:03and they haven't yet been able to introduce this new football
03:06team to the country.
03:07Yeah, it's a lot of question marks out there.
03:10It's very rare you get beat by 60 points in a competitive
03:13bowl game when you run your starters out there tough scene
03:15for Florida State.
03:16That's why that line is dropping last time.
03:18We saw Florida State.
03:20They were an embarrassment to the state of Florida and college
03:23football.
03:23And if I was commissioner, I might have knocked them down
03:25to D2 or even D3 for a year or two for being that embarrassment
03:29here.
03:29So there you go.
03:31I mean, it's an idiotic approach, but perhaps it is what
03:34is moving the line at this moment.
03:37It is what casuals would say in college football looking at
03:41a 60 point score difference in that margin between Florida
03:45State and Georgia in the Orange Bowl, but maybe it is influencing
03:48the public mind.
03:50However, this was from John Ewing who does some great work
03:53for bet MGM about why the line is moving.
03:56There's a lot more sharp money than there is recreational
04:00play in all the sharp money has been on Georgia Tech.
04:04That is at least the thought as of this moment.
04:08Maybe that sharp money believes in Haynes King who returns
04:11at the quarterback spot.
04:13Maybe it believes in Brent Key who has done a great job as
04:16the head coach.
04:17First, an interim head man that had a four and four record
04:20in 2022.
04:21Then the permanent head coach that led the Yellow Jackets
04:24to a bowl game and bowl victory last year over UCF for whatever
04:30reason the line is working again as we shared yesterday, some
04:34early plays and when those props become available a full breakdown
04:38later this week.
04:39Let's look at the three other games that also includes an
04:43ACC school on Saturday.
04:46That's SMU.
04:47Yes, Southern Methodist University located in Dallas, Texas
04:51is now a member of the Atlantic Coast Conference.
04:53They are nearly a four touchdown favorite against Nevada who
04:57named its starting quarterback Brendan Lewis who has been
05:00a veteran and started 10 of 12 games for the Wolfpack as the
05:04starter this year.
05:06New head coach though in Reno.
05:08It's Jeff Choate who worked the last couple of years as the
05:11defensive coordinator or co-DC at least in Austin for Texas
05:15has head coaching experience as the head coach of Montana State
05:19and FCS powerhouse that as you saw their plays on Saturday as
05:23well and is a double-digit favorite as an FCS school over
05:27the FBS, New Mexico.
05:29Yeah, Brett Lashley, you know Miami Fame for myself here.
05:33Very good offensive coordinator and a head coach.
05:35And also here's what you like when you take a look at SMU
05:37Ben returning your starting quarterback back.
05:39Obviously, your coach is still in place for the offensive
05:41scheme got extra work in the offseason.
05:44If you notice last year on that SMU schedule when not playing
05:47up in competition and playing like competition or lower look
05:50at some of those scores for SMU last year.
05:52And if you're taking a look at Nevada coming off a season where
05:54they were pretty porous last year.
05:56I do believe that SMU you want to lay 27.27 a half on the road
06:00not necessarily but I look at that 56 and a half point total
06:03and say to myself quarterback coming back for Nevada SMU in
06:06gear and again those scores against like competition, which
06:09yes, they are an SEC, excuse me an ACC team, but this isn't
06:12an ACC game against Nevada at this point.
06:14They should be able to roll up and down that field here not
06:17comfortable with the four touchdowns.
06:19But if you're taking some of those props from an SMU perspective,
06:21I expect them to get into the high 30s been low 40s in this
06:24game. Completely agree.
06:27I would look at a team total for the Stangs Preston Stone back
06:30at the quarterback spot a ton of his weapons return offensively
06:34as well at SMU was great defensively last year.
06:37One of the best rushing defenses in the country a top 15 scoring
06:41unit as well.
06:42Rhett Lashley has continued the standard in Dallas SMU has long
06:47desired to be back in a power conference.
06:50Of course, we know the Pony Express the death penalty and all
06:53of that but it has had ramifications SMU is now back among the
06:58power for last year in the AAC an undefeated run to a conference
07:04championship and 11 win season for the Mustangs in 78% of the
07:11production from a year ago returns.
07:13That's 11th most out of a hundred and 34 FBS schools in all of
07:18college football.
07:20I cannot wait to see what the Mustangs do this year DRS because
07:24all of the conference realignment that we will see play out in
07:272024 is intriguing, but it's really been between power conference
07:32schools finding a new home with the dissolution of the Pac-12.
07:36It is really SMU as the only school going from a group of five
07:42League to a power conference.
07:44We saw that in four spots last year in the big 12 UCF Cincinnati
07:48Houston BYU look at the conference records.
07:51It was not bright for those four new members in the big 12.
07:54It is an elevation on a week to week status for SMU, but at a 12
07:59to 1 price with a win total of eight and a half.
08:01I look forward to seeing what SMU can do this year at least seven
08:05wins in the last five seasons in Dallas and again quickly to Montana
08:09State what a run the Bobcats have had they have made the FCS post
08:13season each of the past three years under Brent vegan who is the
08:18head coach of as MSU.
08:21They are a double-digit favorite as an FCS school over the FBS school
08:26in New Mexico, and I think the line is correct.
08:30They are 32 and 9 under vegan in his three years in Bozeman.
08:34Yeah, New Mexico, New Mexico State certainly on hard times at that
08:38point.
08:39You can't be in again.
08:39You're hosting a game and you're double-digit underdogs to Montana
08:43State, but just let you know like some of those teams outside of that
08:46Division 1a level per se or the FBS level.
08:49They're really good football teams and they can challenge some of
08:51those bottom feeders and beat them and they're supposed to favored by
08:54double-digits, you know, no doubt about it and the nightcap Midnight
08:58Eastern time get ready for some week 0 behavior Hawaii 38 and a half
09:04point favorite at home against Delaware State and FCS school Braden
09:08Schrager the quarterback for the Rainbow Warriors is back and he is
09:14going to throw it all around the yard.