How Far Can Michigan Get Sticking To The Run?
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00:00John, we had Sharone Moore on, and I think the question is, what Michigan did, does it
00:07change the outlook of their season, and can they continue to win that way?
00:11Well, does it, first part, does it change the outlook of their season, yes.
00:18After USC beat LSU, now all of a sudden, instead of three opportunities to play against big
00:24opponents, and opponents that they were not going to be favored against, it went from
00:30Texas, Oregon, and Ohio State to include then USC.
00:36And now all of a sudden, hey, you beat one of those opponents, it's a game that you're
00:40not favored, it's a higher-ranked opponent than you, yeah, it changes the outlook of
00:46the season.
00:47Now, the second part, can they continue to win that way?
00:50This week, yes, it's Minnesota.
00:52Can they win that way against Washington?
00:54Yes.
00:55Road game, sure.
00:56It'll be tougher, but sure.
00:58Yes.
00:59But can they?
01:00I mean, it's not, you know, will they, or...
01:01It's tough to imagine 32 passing yards being a winning formula most weeks.
01:04As good a run team as they have been, and could be, 32 passing yards, probably not...
01:09But 32 passing yards means that you're running for 200, 250 to 300 yards, 290 yards on Saturday.
01:16So if they have a repeat performance, sure, they can.
01:21But I think the better question is, will they continue to win this way?
01:25Right.
01:26And no, the answer is no, they won't be able to continue to win this way.
01:29Against Minnesota, yes.
01:32Minnesota gave up a 200-yard rusher last week, and Michigan's rushing attack is much more
01:37diverse and better than they faced last week.
01:40So it can work for another week, but will it keep working?
01:45No.
01:46You have to eventually show that you have a passing threat.
01:51So they won last year at Penn State with, what was it, like 29 consecutive runs to close
01:56out the game.
01:57Stopped throwing the ball mid-second quarter.
01:58Yeah.
01:59And they really didn't throw the ball to beat USC.
02:01Those are good football teams.
02:04Those aren't great football teams.
02:05But you're talking a one-off last year and a one-off this year.
02:09And that's the point, is I think Oregon, I think Texas was proof of this too, but Oregon,
02:14Ohio State, I still chalk those up as losses.
02:17I still feel like this team is going to finish 9-3.
02:21That was the preseason thought.
02:22Now it got dark for a couple weeks there, and we started talking about 7 wins, 8 wins.
02:26I do think the win against USC stabilized things for Michigan, but I don't think their
02:31ceiling gets any higher unless they have a real vertical threat throwing the ball.
02:35Because John, those third downs are painful when you know it's got to be a screen pass
02:39Because there's nothing down the field that Orgy can complete with reliability, with consistency.
02:44I think the good teams who are tougher than USC will line up with the safety in the box,
02:50will put you on man coverage on the island, and they'll dare you to beat them.
02:53And I don't trust Orgy to do that.
02:55Michigan will be stable because they can run the ball and bully the bad teams and still
02:58get to that 8, even 9 wins.
03:01But I think their ceiling is capped unless they get more downfield passing.
03:04Yeah, and at some point, whether it's, you just say once a quarter, once a half, we're
03:09just going to chuck it deep.
03:11I mean, they showed that against Arkansas State.
03:13Okay, no big threat there, but Orgy showed he has a strong arm, couldn't connect with
03:19Fred Moore, and now all of a sudden you run into an issue, and I think on that play, Fred
03:23Moore didn't run all the way through the route.
03:26If he did, maybe it's a completion, but if you're a receiver, and this is not a knock
03:33on Michigan's receivers, and you're running routes and routes and routes and routes, and
03:38it's never coming your way, at some point you're like, you know, you might not be giving,
03:45maybe it's 95%, and you need 100% on the one opportunity that you have in that game.
03:52That is mentally taxing.
03:56And I'm not blaming Fred Moore for that, I'm not blaming Alex Orgy for overthrowing him.
04:01That is where you have to, at some point, for the mental health of your wide receiver
04:07room, give them a chance to go make a play.
04:12Throw it up.
04:13Say, you know what, Samaj Morgan, Fred Moore, Tyler Morris, go make something happen.
04:19Kendrick Bell, go make something happen.
04:22Earn your right to get more balls thrown your way.
04:25Alex Orgy, earn more right to throw the ball.