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SportsTranscript
00:00All right, making a dent in sports betting has been difficult for some people, Sam.
00:07If you're taking the favorites in the NFL, you're getting crushed.
00:11And if you're taking overs, you're probably even doing worse.
00:13So the totals are right now, a lot of them in the NFL are well under 40 for September,
00:19which is highly unusual.
00:20And any team that's six or seven point underdogs pretty much, Sam, in the NFL, I mean, they're
00:26almost all winning and winning outright.
00:28So this has been a crazy season for the odds makers.
00:31And that's why I think a lot of these lines, as you see this week, are three and four and
00:35close.
00:36Yeah, it's kind of been the same story over the last few weeks.
00:40You have these big favorites of minus five and a half or more are now two and 14 to start
00:46the season against the spread, including losing 10 outright games.
00:51You have the Bengals, the 49ers, the Bucs, the Raiders, all had over 70% of the public
00:56bets this week.
00:58Each lost outright, which obviously knocks out a bunch of survivor pools.
01:02But even more notable, bettors often add favorites to parlays or teasers, tease it down.
01:09So you're not doing the actual spread, you're just taking them to win outright.
01:12And sports books are really cleaning up on those as well.
01:14They're holding about 21% on spreads to start the season, which is just insane, considering
01:20the average is usually about 7.5%.
01:24And even more notable, when you account for parlays, sports books are holding 16% across
01:29all sorts of NFL bets and yet scoring is down.
01:31We thought to start the season, oddsmakers theorized that perhaps with the new kickoff
01:36rules, teams were going to be scoring more, it would be closer to the end zones.
01:39But teams are just averaging 21 points per game through the first four weeks, which is
01:45the fifth straight year of scoring going down and the lowest start since 2006.
01:49So yeah, the public loves to bet overs and is not doing a great job right now.
01:54Unders are hitting at about a 58% rate this year.
01:57So between all of the upsets, between the favorites losing outright and between the
02:01low scoring, again, sports books are really cleaning up and we'll have to see if that
02:05changes.
02:06There's only a couple big favorites this week.
02:09We'll see if those lines go down a bit as people start to look into this stuff, as the
02:13trends start to go out on social media.
02:16But it'll also be really interesting to see what happens, what the sports books do with
02:20the money.
02:21Some analysts think the high margin start is going to result in sports books, you know,
02:26reinvesting that in promos, marketing and trying to get people to bet more and more.
02:30They've actually spent $23 million on linear TV ads this year, which is down 15% from last
02:36year.
02:37So they're saving money in that department while betting in general is going up.
02:41I think it's up about 16% in terms of handle this year, which obviously accounts for some
02:46new states as well.
02:47And viewership is up as well.
02:48So it's a really, really just a great mix all around for sports books to start the year.
02:53But obviously it's a very long season.
02:55We'll have to see what happens.
02:57Every stock is pretty much up right now and getting an outperform rating.
03:00But historically, that's kind of dipped as we go into November.
03:03So it'll be interesting to see how they react and what they do to prepare going forward.