'It is a trend': Harry Enten explains why some Democrats are worried
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00:00There is a question here on the screen that's kind of an eternal question.
00:03Why some Democrats worry? Now, it's a trope. A lot of people will say they're always worried,
00:10but I will say if you're paying attention to social media or reporting on CNN,
00:14Democrats seem particularly worried now. Why? One man, as we say, has the answer.
00:21CNN's chief senior data reporter, Harry Eden, is here. So, why?
00:29Why? Why? Why? Why? What is with all of this bedwetting among Democrats? Maybe it's an
00:35eternal problem, but let's take a look here. These are, of course, the Great Lake Battleground
00:39states, the states we've been focusing in on. If Kamala Harris wins these three,
00:43she most likely gets to 270 electoral votes. Take a look three weeks ago. Harris was ahead
00:48by two in Pennsylvania, two in Wisconsin, three in Michigan. Look at where we are today.
00:53The race is even tighter, even tighter than it was today. It's a one-point advantage in
00:59Pennsylvania, one in Wisconsin, one in Michigan. Look, that's limited movement, but in a year in
01:06which this race has been so static, we're talking one-point movement, one-point movement,
01:11two-point movements, and we see movements in all three. This is the type of thing that,
01:16at least in the public polling, makes Democrats worry, and I think that the public polling in
01:22this case is reflected in some of that internal polling, some of that reporting that suggests
01:26that these Great Lake Battleground states have certainly tightened a lot, where at this point,
01:30they are way too close to call. It is what you call a trend. It is a trend. When you see
01:35something like this over several states, when you compare this to four years ago,
01:39what does it look like? Yeah. So, let's take a look, and we're going to look at an average
01:44across these three states, right? Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. An average on
01:50October 11th. What do you see? Well, if you look eight years ago, Hillary Clinton was way out in
01:55front in an average of these three. She was up by eight. You go four years ago, Joe Biden was up by
02:00an average of seven points across these three Great Lake Battleground states. You come today,
02:05it's just a one-point advantage for Kamala Harris across these three Great Lake Battleground states.
02:11So, Kamala Harris, at least in the polling, is doing considerably worse than Biden or Clinton.
02:16And of course, Clinton lost in all three of these states, and Joe Biden barely won in all three of
02:20these states. So, when you see Harris up by just a point across these three, I think that this is
02:25really the type of thing that gets Democrats really to worry, John, because the simple fact
02:30is Kamala Harris is doing considerably worse than either Biden or Clinton was. Yeah. At this number,
02:35what you start hoping for is somehow that the polls are actually right this time. Are right
02:39this time and doing a better job. And that's a little bit of a thin reed to base your hope on.
02:43There may be some other reasons in general why Democrats are more worried. Yeah. So, I think it
02:49just comes down to the fact that Democrats are more worried about a Donald Trump presidency
02:54than Trump supporters are about a Kamala Harris presidency. So, angry if the opposing candidate
02:59wins, 52% of Harris voters say they'd be angry if Donald Trump won versus just 42% of Trump voters
03:05who say they'd be angry if Kamala Harris was. So, I think this is more of a bigger, larger picture.
03:11It's not just that the polls are tightening. I think it's just that Democrats, John, are more
03:14worried in general about a Donald Trump presidency than the reverse in this particular situation.
03:20Harriet, thank you very much for all of that. Thank you, my friend.
03:23Have a great weekend. You as well, Kate.
03:25So, Kamala Harris is continuing her campaign media blitz,
03:28taking part in a town hall hosted by Univision for undecided Hispanic voters. Listen.
03:36When I am elected president, I will bring back that border security bill and I will sign it into law
03:43and do the work of focusing on what we must do to have an orderly and humane pathway
03:51to earn citizenship for hardworking people. I think it is a false choice for people who would
03:58say you do one or the other. I believe we must do both. I believe we can do both.
04:04Joining me right now is Gen Z activist, social media influencer, Carlos Eduardo Espina. He has
04:1010 million followers on TikTok. I'm sure it's more than that. If I check back, you can correct me.
04:18And also to speaking slot at the DNC, which is the last time that we spoke was right before
04:24you had your big moment on stage at the DNC. The New York Times headline on this event,
04:31on this town hall event with Univision was that it was Harris walks fine line on immigration
04:38at Univision Town Hall, which is what you really kind of saw in that moment, in that sound bite
04:43that we just played. But in your experience, in your view and what you hear in your interactions
04:50with your followers is walking a fine line the right thing to do, do you think?
04:55Well, in my personal experience, I actually believe it's not. I think the Harris campaign
05:01needs to be a lot more on the forefront of proposing a different vision than Donald Trump
05:05on immigration. You see it yesterday in the town hall of the 10 questions. Three of them
05:10were in one way or another related to immigration. You had the daughter who lost her mother, the guy
05:16who has friends who are on DACA, and then you had other issues on immigration and they're all
05:21highlighting the humane aspect of it. And I think that's something really important to lean on.
05:26And obviously border security is really important and it needs to be addressed,
05:30but I would like to see a lot more of the leading into the humane side,
05:33you know, DACA recipients, those who are married to US citizens, those who have been here for
05:37decades and really highlighting that contrast between Harris and Trump. And I think she's
05:41doing a good job at times, but I would like to see more of it, honestly.
05:45That is interesting because I was going to ask you what you're getting at is
05:48as it's been described, the shift that people have seen in Kamala Harris's position
05:53since she's gotten into the campaign. I mean, Harris is now pledging to impose
05:58more restrictive immigration, asylum and border policies than we've seen really, you know,
06:07before from Biden or that she's talked about before. And in doing so, she's gone from framing
06:15herself as an advocate for undocumented immigrants to kind of touting herself as talking a lot about
06:22being a former border prosecutor and how she's going to be stronger on the border
06:27than Donald Trump is. Do you think she's trying to win the middle? She's trying to not turn off,
06:35if you want to say, like Republican voters on this issue, if I'm going to say with broad strokes.
06:40I'm not necessarily sure if it hurts her. I'm not a pollster. I can tell you what I see day in and
06:45day out in the community. And when I meet people, I mean, every single day that I'm out, people
06:50recognize me from social media, people comment on my videos. And it's very few of the people who
06:54are, you know, the forefront of immigration is the issue of the border for them. I mean,
06:58obviously people care about it. They're concerned about certain aspects, but I don't think they're
07:03concerned about the border. And I think that's a big part of it. And I think that's a big part of
07:08certain aspects, but I don't think they're concerned about it as much as they are, you know,
07:12an immigration status for their mother, like the lady we heard at the town hall yesterday,
07:17or for their spouses or for their children or whoever it may be that they really care about.
07:21And that's why I believe, you know, it is really important for the Harris campaign to lean more
07:26into that pro-immigrant, especially focusing on those who are already here. And you can do that
07:31without necessarily. And I think she recognized that compromising border security and all that
07:35narrative around it. But yeah, I would like to see more of, you know, talking about those
07:40who have been your 10, 15, 20 years working, paying taxes, contributing, what is the plan
07:45to help them and their families as well. I think that would really win her some points on people
07:50who maybe right now are undecided. And what do you, and it might be hard to kind of encapsulate
07:56quickly, but what do you think is the top issue? Is it immigration or maybe just beyond immigration
08:01that you are hearing from your, I mean, more than 10 million followers on TikTok,
08:06many of whom you, many of whom are, you assume are Latino voters?
08:13Yeah, well, obviously immigration is a big topic, but there's more to it. There's the economy,
08:18you know, there's democracy, there's a lot of different aspects. And I think the biggest
08:22thing I've noticed is a lot of people are voting this time around, not so much based on policy,
08:27but more on personality. And, you know, the more they get to meet Kamala Harris,
08:31the more they understand, you know, that she's a human, she's, you know, she's compassionate.
08:36I think that's why that town hall yesterday was really passionate. You are really important. You
08:40would never see, I think Donald Trump gives such a compassionate answer, really understand people's
08:45suffering. So I think, you know, one of the big skepticism right now is people just don't know
08:50enough about her. So doing these kinds of events appearing more, you know, on Univision, Telemundo,
08:55on other platforms where Spanish speakers and Latinos in general are, I think can really help,
09:00you know, break that divide that people right now feel like they don't know who they are,
09:04and they do know who Trump is. And for some reason, a lot of people seem to be attracted
09:07to Donald Trump. Yeah, I mean, he is, you know, he is, she has less support among Latino voters
09:14in recent polling than Biden had four years ago. How that is going to pan out, come exit polls this
09:19time around, we'll see together. It's good to see you, Carlos. Again, thank you for coming in.