Met Office Wednesday evening weather forecast 01/05/2024
01 May - National weather forecast presented by Aidan McGivern.
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00:00Hi there. A noisy night, a weather ahead for some southern parts of the UK. Outbreaks of
00:05heavy rain and in some places thunderstorms. A complex pattern across much of Europe at
00:11the moment. We've got an area of low pressure sitting to the west of the UK. That brought
00:14a weather front and some persistent rain to western parts of the country on Tuesday. That
00:19weather front through Wednesday has weakened but it's still there dividing cooler air to
00:25the southwest with this warm plume coming up from central Europe and arriving into the
00:30UK from the east during the rest of Wednesday and into Thursday. And here's that weather
00:35front. It becomes rejuvenated once again as that warm plume arrives from the near continent.
00:42And as a result, the old frontal boundary, this area of cloud and rain, becomes more
00:46widespread. The rain area blossoms through the evening to affect southwest Scotland into
00:51northern Ireland, western parts of England and Wales. And there'll be some heavy outbreaks
00:55of rain for a time in these areas. But the focus after midnight is across southern parts
01:00of the country with not only that heavy rain across south Wales into the southwest of England
01:05but some lively thunderstorms potentially arriving from the continent to affect other
01:10southern parts of the UK and into the Midlands. As far as rainfall accumulations are concerned,
01:17some significant accumulations in a 12-hour period, so from 10pm to 10am across south
01:23Wales and the southwest in places 25 to up to 50mm of rainfall, much of this falling
01:30in a short period of time. But you can also see this speckled nature of the rainfall through
01:34the Midlands into central and southern parts of England. And that just shows the hit-and-miss
01:40nature of any thunderstorms that develop. And in some places, very little rainfall.
01:45In others, rather a lot, 50mm or more in a few hours if you're affected by the thunderstorms.
01:51Now I wouldn't take this too literally. This shows the progression of lightning overnight.
01:56But it just gives an indication that the thunderstorms are likely to move up from the continent to
02:00affect southern and then central parts of the UK into the Midlands, into mid Wales by
02:07mid-morning on Thursday before easing away. These thunderstorms are going to be hit-and-miss.
02:12Where they occur, there's that risk of frequent lightning and hail as well as torrential downpours.
02:17But not everywhere in this region we'll see the thunderstorms. We'll have to watch and
02:22see how these develop over the continent and arrive in the UK overnight. As far as the
02:27rest of the UK is concerned, much quieter for northern England and Scotland overnight.
02:31The rain also easing for northern Ireland by the end of the night with a lot of cloud
02:35here. There'll be low cloud arriving into the north-east of England. But for much of
02:39Scotland, especially towards the north and west, clear skies will prevail. So a fresh
02:43feel on Thursday morning. But that's where the sunniest place will be in the UK. Some
02:48decent sunny spells for Cumbria into the likes of Lancashire and north Wales as well. But
02:55we've still got that rain and any thunderstorms remaining across southern and central parts
03:01of the UK, slowly drifting their way north-westwards. Most of the thunderstorms diminishing through
03:06the day but still outbreaks of rain affecting Wales and the south-west and still the potential
03:11for some lively downpours through parts of north Wales into northern England, the Midlands
03:16as well. Northern Ireland, northern England, Scotland, mostly dry but significant temperature
03:22contrasts. Truly remarkable for some places on Thursday afternoon. Now some parts of eastern
03:28Scotland with the Haar could experience just 12 Celsius. Other parts of Scotland towards
03:35the west could get up to 23 Celsius. Likewise, north-west England into the Midlands. East
03:41Anglia where we get some sunshine, 20 up to 23 Celsius possible. Much cooler where we've
03:46got the outbreaks of rain continuing across south Wales and the south-west, 13 or 14 Celsius.
03:53So these big temperature contrasts across the country depending where you've got the
03:56low cloud or the sunshine or those outbreaks of rain continuing. And the rain area, that
04:02frontal boundary, continues to move northwards on Thursday night. So outbreaks of rain really
04:09persisting across parts of Wales into parts of central southern England. Further showers
04:13coming along for east Anglia but for northern England, Scotland, northern Ireland, it's
04:17going to be mostly dry with clear spells but continued low cloud effect in north-east England
04:23as well as eastern Scotland. Towards the far south-west, clearing up and drying up and
04:28so by Friday itself actually with that front moving north, we've got an area of cloud across
04:34northern Ireland, southern Scotland, northern and central England, parts of Wales. Anywhere
04:39further north than the M4 basically where there's the chance of some outbreaks of rain
04:45and potentially some heavy downpours or thunderstorms. But north of the central belt, sunny skies
04:52and south of the M4, brightening up with plenty of dry weather. So a real mixture once again
04:58on Friday as far as the temperatures are concerned, staying particularly cool on that
05:02North Sea coast with the low cloud. But for western Scotland, the potential for high teens
05:07or even low twenties once again, a little cooler down towards the south despite the
05:12sunnier skies. We're into a cooler air mass here, 15 or 16 Celsius. Continued messy weather
05:19situations into the weekend, so some outbreaks of rain, some showers but also some warm sunshine
05:25at times as well.
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