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00:00Well for more on this story we're joined now by Andrew Smith of Queen Mary
00:04University of London. He specialises in French politics and is a friend of the
00:09programme. Welcome again Andrew, good to have you with us. Can I first ask, we were
00:16hearing earlier from our reporter at the court today that Marine Le Pen is
00:19looking really downbeat as though she's expecting the worst. Can you give us an
00:26idea of the trial and what her defence arguments were? Absolutely, well it's
00:33been a very long trial. Of course the prosecution has been laying out their
00:40accusations and Marine Le Pen has been present for the whole thing, you know, she
00:44has some legal training. She sat there very prominently at the front
00:49throughout, you know, tutting away and gesticulating and making it clear when
00:53she disagrees and, you know, trotting over to confer with lawyers and all the
00:57rest. She's been a very visible presence waiting at the the front of the trial.
01:01Now what's really been said is that the contention is not simply that the
01:07accusation alleged is that this is not simply the emploi fictif, the fake
01:12jobs, that was seen kind of prosecuted in French government before, but
01:17actually there is a whole system behind this and that's really what this hinges
01:21on, what the prosecution are really going after her for. She is at the head
01:26of the party, there has been, they accuse, a system by which, you know, they have
01:31essentially been milking European parliamentary money to run a French
01:35political party and that is at the heart of this contention, that they have all
01:40these so-called parliamentary aides but they're not actually doing any work to
01:43help the European deputies. In fact they are just working for the party back in
01:49France. Now what's Marine Le Pen said? Well she said first of all, she said well I'm
01:53not the HR director, how can you claim this? It's all, you know, they don't count
01:57for everyone's hours and all the rest of it, but the key of her defense has been
02:01really around this idea of mutualization as she called it and she talks about how
02:05when the National Front then, now the National Rally, went from three
02:11European deputies to over 20 and essentially they were all brand new, they
02:16all needed a bit of help and so they sort of just pooled resources and they
02:20were doing a bit of work between all and they weren't necessarily that great at
02:23keeping their records. That's her contention, there was no system and
02:26behind all of this. But it's been a really difficult one and I think there
02:30will be some very difficult moments to come when the defence starts to make its
02:35case and just in the days and weeks to come. Now she said she is a lawyer and
02:40she's made a couple of comments, she'd suggested that justice in the court was
02:45I think she used a word that we could probably translate as shaky, suggesting
02:52that she didn't have a lot of faith in the French justice system. What is she
02:56doing by saying that? Are we heading into Trump territory with that kind of a
03:01comment? Well I think we're maybe not, I wouldn't rule it out is what I would say.
03:07What she's tried to do is she said well you know we sent thousands of emails,
03:10there's thousands of hours of all this and you've only picked out a couple that
03:13are incriminating. But in reality that's all it takes to make a case and there
03:18are clear signs from Valéry Saint-Just, of course he was the party treasurer for
03:23many years, another lawyer, that there was kind of something bad afoot
03:28and there seemed to be signs that some MEPs said look this looks like fake jobs,
03:32is that right? Of course he said Marine knows all about it. He said he was just
03:36dismissing the claim and Marine Le Pen says well I didn't know, I didn't know
03:39these things. It seems like she is trying to make this case that actually you know
03:42this is maybe the either the monitoring that's at fault or the state is at fault.
03:47There's a suggestion that they might drag up the Jérôme Kerviel case from way
03:51back in 2008. He was the trader that lost Société Générale, the bank, billions
03:56of euros. But there is perhaps a failure in systems and monitoring and actually
04:01the reason that's being pursued, she claims, is to kind of get at her
04:04politically. However it's worth stating this all relates to laws that came in in
04:092016, anti-corruption laws and what the prosecution are asking for is not an
04:14option in terms of the actual sentencing and all the rest of it. That's what the
04:18law demands as part of this type of trial, part of this type of
04:23conviction. So if that were to be made that's very much what the justices would
04:27have to look for I think. What do you think the political impact would be if
04:33she were banned? 11 million people voted in the last parliamentary elections for
04:37her party. While she's disliked by many she is hugely popular by many other
04:43people here in France. What would be the impact? As you said, we've seen a
04:48long process of the de-defectivization or the kind of detoxification perhaps
04:53of the far-right that's been going on over previous years and she personally
04:57has tried to soften her image. You can forget the last presidential run, all the
05:01photos of her with her cats looking nice and friendly and all the rest of it.
05:04She's seen to be a sort of old hand at this and will very much fancy her chances in the
05:09next presidential election.
05:11Now, that also casts us back to the last one, and really, that question of what impact it
05:16will have is about how much those votes for the national rally were votes against President
05:22Macron or votes for Marine Le Pen.
05:25You might well say she has an able deputy in the young Jordan Bardella, of course, who
05:30is at the head of the party nominally, and he might well be a ready-made replacement.
05:34It would be hugely personally distortive in terms of the party because the Le Pens have
05:39been so central to everything that the party has done.
05:42Now, it is something that will shake up the far-right's politics, but it may also enrage
05:48people that they might see this as being injustice by the ruling elite, as it were, pushing back
05:55against an opposition leader.
05:57It depends how the national rally play this, but I think one thing's for sure, they're
06:00unlikely to go quietly, they're unlikely to accept things as they come, and that's going
06:04to start very much when the defence goes on the attack in these days to come.
06:08Okay, well, we'll have to leave it there.
06:10Thank you very much.
06:11Andrew Smith there speaking to us from London.
06:14Thank you for sharing your ideas with us there, Andrew.