• last year
Transcript
00:00Just agree with my premise, even if you don't.
00:02Okay.
00:03Okay?
00:04Just please.
00:05Sure.
00:06If you do anything for me today,
00:08just agree with my premise.
00:09Sounds good.
00:10All right.
00:11The Niners should probably have a better record.
00:13I agree, Mark.
00:14Right?
00:15Like, they're a better performing team than that.
00:18I know we can, you are what your record says you are.
00:21We can build up ourselves.
00:22This thing, and you're not wrong.
00:23But agree with my premise,
00:25that when you watch the Niners play,
00:27they're like, oof.
00:28I mean, they blew some games.
00:30They probably shouldn't have blown.
00:31Like, they should have a better record, right?
00:34You are what your record says you are.
00:36But if I look at the three losses in division,
00:39you probably should have won two of them.
00:41And what Seattle did, that's football.
00:44Seattle came down, they beat your defense, they scored.
00:47That one to me wasn't blown
00:49as much as the other two were blown.
00:51So yes, they should have a better record.
00:53Yeah, I mean.
00:54Premise affirmed.
00:55I outplayed the opponent in those three games
00:57based on a lot of the metrics that we use
01:00to decide whether or not someone's outplayed an opponent.
01:02But yeah, they're all,
01:03like, that doesn't mean you win the game.
01:06That doesn't mean to win the game.
01:07You gotta do the thing all the way to the end, I get it.
01:09All right, so, but if we accept that premise,
01:13you know what I wanna know?
01:14I wanna know where your heart and mind go
01:18once you agree with that premise.
01:20So the Niners are six and seven,
01:23and if you buy the premise
01:24that their record should be better,
01:26and then I tell you, for example,
01:28this is kind of what inspired this today.
01:30I saw this number, and it blew my mind.
01:35And I know there are other analytics pieces out there
01:39that many have used throughout the year to suggest,
01:42well, the Niners, remember the DVOA week?
01:44Yeah.
01:45Where like, oh my gosh, they're one of eight teams
01:47that's in the top right corner,
01:48which means they got a plus offense and a plus defense.
01:51They're one of eight teams,
01:51and they have far and away the worst record of those eight.
01:54Yeah, that was EPA,
01:55but same thing, same diff.
01:56You don't understand,
01:57it's a bunch of letters.
01:58You put a bunch of letters together,
01:59and they mean something, whatever.
02:01So here's the latest,
02:03and I hadn't seen this one before.
02:06Yard differential, okay?
02:09And yard differential, I'm sure-
02:10YD.
02:11Yeah, I'm sure you get it.
02:13Like, pretty simple.
02:15Have you outgained your opponents,
02:18or have they outgained you?
02:20And who is the best at outgaining their opponent?
02:24And yards, you don't get any points for them,
02:27but it is a pretty good indicator
02:29of who's doing a better job of moving up and down the field.
02:32And usually the team that's moving up and down the field
02:35is going to win the football game, most of the time.
02:38So check this out.
02:40The top four teams this year in yard differential.
02:45It's a good week to do it too,
02:46because the Niners had just a bananas yard differential
02:49at halftime of their game against the Bears on Sunday.
02:52So, number four, at plus 973 yards,
02:58the Baltimore Ravens.
03:00Yeah.
03:01Baltimore Ravens.
03:03Number three, plus 991 yards, the Detroit Lions.
03:10Now, doesn't that surprise you a little bit?
03:12Don't the Lions feel like they're just
03:15steamrolling people all the time?
03:19Guess who's got a better yard differential
03:21than the Detroit Flippin' Lions?
03:23Who, Mark?
03:24The San Francisco 49ers, who are number two
03:28at 1,040 yards, better than their opponent.
03:33Only behind one other team.
03:36Can you guess who it is?
03:38Number one in the league is,
03:41I hope you didn't say Chiefs.
03:42No.
03:43Y'all know better than that.
03:44Yeah, probably Philly.
03:45I bet some of you might've said Bills,
03:47but Dibs, you're right.
03:48It's the Philadelphia Eagles at 1,129 yards.
03:54Those are the top four teams in terms of,
03:57dude, we're gonna get that yard and you're not.
04:00So, both sides of the ball.
04:01We're doing it, you're not.
04:04Number four, the Ravens.
04:05Number three, the Lions.
04:06Number two, the 49ers.
04:09Yeah.
04:10At six and seven.
04:10And number one, the Eagles, who've won nine in a row.
04:14So, here's my question.
04:16When I tell you that, does it make you hopeful or mad?
04:22I'm more hopeful than mad.
04:23Okay.
04:24I'm kind of done being mad
04:25because I know why they blew those games
04:27and it has nothing to do with yard differential.
04:29It has to do with bad plays, bad mistakes,
04:32a missed field goal, a botched punt coverage,
04:37which I don't believe plays into what you're talking about
04:39when you go to cover a punt.
04:41That is not yards in yard differential at all.
04:45The PI on Devandre Campbell that set up a drive
04:49or kept the drive going, that doesn't factor into that.
04:51So, what you're saying,
04:53it means that the Niners are a good team
04:55and all the advanced metrics, the basic metrics,
04:58put aside the record, they all tell you the same thing.
05:01The Niners are really good
05:04and they should have more wins than six wins,
05:06but they don't.
05:07So, I don't get mad at that.
05:10And if the year ends and they don't go to the playoffs,
05:12well then maybe for me,
05:13that's a time that I would get mad, but I'm not giving up.
05:16Well, okay, sure.
05:18So, and that's fine.
05:19That's where my mind goes to.
05:20It's kind of like the closer I get to Thursday night,
05:23I do feel like a one-two punch over the next five days
05:28could actually mean something for 49er football.
05:31And this is the one-two punch and it's a huge if.
05:35But if they beat the Rams on Thursday night
05:37and the Packers beat the Seahawks on Sunday, we got action.
05:41That's my belief.
05:43The NFC West has got action if that happens.
05:46And I know a lot of people, if you bounce around
05:48and look at this on social media, a lot of people,
05:51oh, there's a way that a four-way tie at nine and eight,
05:55and here's what needs to happen.
05:56And then they'll list 18 games
05:58that need to go a certain way.
06:00And I'm like, that's not gonna happen.
06:02That's like, there's no way that this one scenario
06:05of 18 games, it's not gonna play out that way.
06:09I just go, I would much rather go week to week.
06:12And it is my belief that if the 49ers beat the Rams
06:15and the Packers beat the Seahawks, we've got action.
06:19And there would be the renewed belief in me.
06:23The closer I get to this,
06:24it's not that I'm gonna predict a five-game win streak.
06:27I still find that highly unlikely.
06:29And a win over the Bears does not suddenly make me think,
06:33quote, the Niners are back.
06:35I don't think that at all.
06:36But I guess this is what I'm saying.
06:39In terms of late season magic that you hope for as a fan,
06:45this is more realistic than most.
06:48Because I do still believe that this football team
06:51is largely underperforming.
06:54This is gonna sound stupid now,
06:56but kind of like only on the scoreboard.
06:58And that's the only thing that matters.
07:00I'm fully aware of that.
07:02But at the end, I know people wanna do
07:06the math brain thing.
07:07You are what your record says you are.
07:10I don't believe six and seven teams
07:12are always built the same.
07:13I don't believe 11 and two teams are built the same.
07:17Like, give me the Eagles and the Vikings.
07:19They have the same record.
07:21Are they built the same?
07:22I don't think so.
07:23I find one of them much more effective
07:25and scary than the other.
07:26That's just me.
07:27And that would be the Vikings?
07:29I think the Eagles are much better
07:30than the Vikings right now.
07:31You mentioned the grid before about the EPA
07:34expected points added based on your performance
07:37on offense and defense.
07:39You talked about the teams that were
07:41in the top right quadrant,
07:43which are teams that are above the norm in offense
07:45and above the norm in defense.
07:47And right now there are only five teams
07:49in that upper quadrant.
07:51Buffalo, Detroit, Philly, Green Bay, and Minnesota.
07:54Those are your five.
07:55And then I look at the teams on the border
07:58and you see San Francisco and Kansas City,
08:01their logos are on top of each other.
08:03They're almost imperceptible in terms
08:06of the advanced analytics, who's better.
08:09One team's 11 and two, one team is six and seven.
08:12And so that for me bolsters your argument
08:15about what this team could be or should be
08:19because according to the EPA grid,
08:22and Pittsburgh is a team that is really close
08:24to being over in that right side.
08:27Seattle's also close.
08:29The Chargers are close.
08:31But the Niners and the Chiefs are almost identical
08:35in advanced metrics.
08:37Yet one team's 11 and two and one six and seven.
08:3912 and one.
08:40Oh, they're 12 and one, I'm sorry, yeah.
08:41Apologies.
08:42Flippant, 12 and one.
08:43Sorry, Andy.
08:44Incredible, you know?
08:46And I love this text right here that just came in,
08:48Comcast Business Text Line.
08:50Mark, this is a good listener,
08:51somebody who's tapped into our station and we appreciate it.
08:53Mark, numbers are numbers and numbers are numbers.
08:56And I'm sure there are several other metrics
08:58that point to that they're not very good this year.
09:00Well, let me say it this way.
09:02No, there aren't.
09:04Now, here are-
09:05No, not metrics.
09:07There's just a record.
09:08Well, there's stats.
09:09If you think stats are not metrics, stats are metrics.
09:12Stats are metrics, but what I'm saying-
09:14And they're numbers.
09:14If you want to zero in on certain moments of the field
09:18or pieces, like this thing, a yardage differential,
09:23in theory, is talking about your offense,
09:25it's talking about your defense,
09:26it's talking about almost every player on the field.
09:29I think we know where the 49ers have struggled this year
09:32and shown themselves to, quote, not be a good team.
09:36It's when the special teams unit is on the field.
09:38That's one of them.
09:3930 second in net punt average.
09:41Absolutely disastrous.
09:42That's a metric that doesn't show up in your stack.
09:47Correct, but also the special teams is, while important,
09:50on the field very, very rarely.
09:52And it's not enough for me to say,
09:54well, that makes them a bad team.
09:56That's a bad unit and it is absolutely-
10:00Well, it costs you at least one game.
10:02It's mind-boggling that it hasn't been addressed
10:04in a different way up to this point under Kyle Shanahan.
10:08I don't really get that.
10:09So I'm going to give everybody that one.
10:12Certainly in the red zone this year,
10:14they have not been a good team.
10:15Getting better, getting better in the last hit.
10:18They're up to 22nd.
10:19Up to 22nd.
10:19So still below the middle.
10:21Surging to 22nd.
10:22Surging, yeah.
10:23They were really bad there.
10:24They were number one last year.
10:25And so all of those things, absolutely,
10:27they go into the stew.
10:28Opponent red zone percentage, the 31st.
10:32So these are all things that,
10:34as we go beyond the numbers,
10:36these are reasons to me why you're six and seven.
10:38Well, and you're right.
10:40You're right.
10:40But those are a little bit more finely pointed
10:44than others that are talking about
10:46the entire flow of the game, is my point.
10:49So look, again, that's the point.
10:52That's what we're all doing here, talking this out, right?
10:54You get to look at whatever you want to look at.
10:56And I'm going to sit here,
10:58and I am going to firmly believe
11:00that the Niners have underperformed.
11:02They are better than this.
11:03And because I think they're better than this,
11:06I'm with you when I ask that question,
11:09and y'all can weigh in.
11:10888-957-9570.
11:12When you hear that,
11:13when you hear that the Niners are out gaining
11:15their opponents at Lions and Eagles levels,
11:19does that make you hopeful for what's left
11:22or angry because of what's happened?
11:25I'm hopeful.
11:26You're hopeful.
11:28The other half of our room on our show,
11:30I think angry, right?
11:32Grandy, would you agree with that?
11:34That ticks you off when you hear that.
11:35Yeah, the stats that you share, to me,
11:38it makes me feel more frustrated than anything else
11:40because if you are that good
11:42and all those metrics that suggest that,
11:43then how the hell do you explain the fact
11:45that they're below 500?
11:46Win the game, exactly.
11:47Disaster class of a season.
11:48I don't disagree with you.
11:50I think it's just kind of a matter of like
11:52where we want our brain to go in a moment like that.
11:55Do you sort of kind of want to look forward
11:57or do you want to look back?
11:58And I'm not going to sit here and tell you
12:00either one is wrong.
12:03The answer can be both.
12:04And for me, I'm hopeful now with reserving the right
12:08to be angry later because if this does not result
12:11in a playoff berth, then I'll be angry
12:13and I'll look back at the red zone defense,
12:16the fourth quarter points allowed
12:17where they've given up nine points per fourth quarter
12:21all year long.
12:22The red zone offense, the special teams.
12:25These are things that I am reserving the right
12:27to be angry about later.