"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Senin (16/12/2024) dengan tema Peluang Saham di Pekan Penentuan Suku Bunga The Fed dan BI."
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00:00Game Plus Arcade, available only on RCTE Plus Super App. Play it now!
00:30We will see the agenda meeting that we will have this morning
00:44PTRO, NSSS, KRAS, and also SCPI held a general meeting of the shareholder,
00:50WIKA held an obligatory meeting for the continuation of the first two stages of 2021
00:57WIKA, MCOL, and NICL also held an agenda meeting for the payment of interim capital dividends
01:04as well as East Duty DPS Interim Capital Dividend and GDST-X Interim Capital Dividend
01:12Next is the closing of the main Asian exchanges
01:16What are the opening data for NICL?
01:20For NICL, this is the opening data of the main Asian exchanges this morning
01:27NICL is open to strengthen 0.26% at level 39,572
01:32SCI Singapore is strengthen 0.04% at level 3,812
01:36KOSPI Korea is open to strengthen 0.09% at level 2,496
01:41and Hang Seng Hong Kong is open to strengthen 2.09% at level 19,971
01:57And this morning we will discuss through video conference
02:00there is Mas Abdul Haq Al-Farouki, analystoknow.id
02:03Good morning, Mas Abdul
02:07Hello, good morning, Mas
02:08Good morning, Mas Abdul. Thank you for joining us at Marketbuzz this morning
02:13If we talk about the movement of ISK in the past two days, it has been weakening
02:18What can be analyzed from that movement?
02:22And actually, what is quite heavy for the movement of ISK in the last two days, Mas Abdul?
02:32Okay, good.
02:33Dear investors, the bottom line is that last week ISK was actually quite good
02:40At the beginning of last week, the strengthening of ISK was quite significant compared to the previous few days
02:48But on Thursday and Friday, ISK was weak or burdened up to 1.8%
02:56Which is also dominated by the decline of blue chip stocks, including Samsung Banking
03:02What investors need to be aware of is that there are some catalysts that cause ISK to experience a weakness
03:12In addition to the action of selling to investors on Friday, there are other indications
03:19That's what investors can observe
03:21Such as inflation in the United States experienced an increase of 2.7% in November
03:28Or higher 0.1% at 2.6% in October
03:32This is welcomed negatively by investors
03:35Seeing that when inflation fell in the middle of 2024
03:41Investors have seen that the economic outlook in the United States is quite good
03:48Because inflation is maintained at 2%
03:51And also the flower rate is reduced to a level of 4.75%
03:57On the other hand, this is a negative sentiment
04:03Welcomed by investors in Indonesia
04:06Including foreign investors in Indonesia
04:09Yesterday, after the US inflation data was released
04:13And showed unsatisfactory results, even though it was in line with expectations
04:18But this is funny, the outflow of investors in the stock market and the bond market
04:25This is reflected in the fact that the outflow in Indonesia last week reached 2.7 trillion rupiah
04:33Yesterday dominated by banks such as BBRI 1.7 trillion
04:38Then there is BMRI up to 563 billion
04:41This is due to the depreciation of rupiah
04:45Which is quite deep
04:481.5% last week at a range of 5,800 to 16,050
04:55And today the movement is still below 16,000
05:00On the other hand, Indonesia's fiscal data was released last week
05:05Showing that in November 2024 to November 2024
05:10Indonesia's fiscal deficit was Rp. 401.8 trillion
05:15Or 1.78% of Indonesia's GDP
05:19Of course, this does not worry the economy in Indonesia
05:24Including fiscal in Indonesia
05:26Because the country's deficit spending is quite good in developing countries
05:30On the other hand, the safety limit or regulation limit of the deficit in Indonesia is 3% of the GDP
05:37So this is still safe for the macro economy in Indonesia
05:42Okay, it means that the weakness of ESG and rupiah
05:46This happened because of the capital outflow of foreign investors
05:51And one of the implications is that ESG weakened significantly in the last two days
05:57And also the movement of rupiah exchange value from the US dollar
06:01Almost touching the level of Rp. 16,000 per US dollar
06:05Okay, if we look at what you said earlier
06:08One of the triggers is why ESG is quite heavy
06:11The movement at the end of last week
06:13Because Samsung Blue Chip was hit by a correction
06:18By projection and also considering various indicators
06:24Mr. Abdul, is this going to be a pattern that will continue at the beginning of this week?
06:30Or do you actually see a level of support that may seem to stop
06:36And there will also be an upside potential for Samsung based on the Blue Chip banning?
06:45Okay, for Samsung Blue Chip, which is difficult to ban by itself
06:49Indeed, like BBCA or Big Four itself
06:52There is still a potential to experience rebounds
06:54But not all Big Four stocks have the potential to experience rebounds
06:59There are also stocks that I mean have the potential to experience rebounds
07:03Such as BBCA and BMRI
07:05And for BBRI itself, it's actually quite heavy
07:08At the moment there is a rebound potential
07:11It can be seen that there is still an outflow in BBRI
07:15Where the outflow itself is quite large for BBRI
07:19Which I mentioned earlier
07:22Last week there was already 1.7 trillion out of the original BBRI
07:28And compared to BBCA or BMRI is still far
07:32Even half of the outflow from BBRI
07:35So indeed for BBCA and BMRI itself there is still a potential for rebounds
07:39And if we look at it fundamentally
07:43BBCA in November or in the 11th month
07:48BBCA printed the clean sheet increased by 14% year-on-year
07:52So this is a positive catalyst for BBCA to be able to rebound
07:57In today's trade and also supported by BMRI
08:01And we hope that BBRI to BMRI will also follow the movement of BBCA and BMRI today
08:09Is there a specific indicator related to BBRI?
08:14Or maybe if we see there is a case that later becomes a hot discussion related to BBNI
08:20But what is the issue of BBRI itself?
08:23Or maybe what is the indicator?
08:25Why do you see that there is no potential for rebounds in BBRI?
08:35Okay, for BBRI itself here I see
08:38Fundamentally it is still growing from the 3rd quarter
08:44But here we can highlight the fact that the flower breed in Indonesia is still maintained
08:48And the potential is maintained this week at level 6%
08:52So this really raises the concerns of investors about BBRI stocks
08:56Which if the Indonesian flower breed is maintained longer
09:00There is a potential for a decrease in the net interest margin of BBRI itself
09:06This will trigger a drop in the interest rate of BBRI
09:10So when the interest rate of BBRI drops, it will be projected from the same price
09:14Which will also have a potential drop
09:16This is the highlight of investors related to BBRI stocks
09:20Why BBRI stocks were thrown away by foreigners in the last few months
09:25That is indeed from the middle of 2024
09:29Okay, in terms of the consensus for the RDG of the Bank of Indonesia
09:33What is the most likely prediction, Abdul?
09:39For the social consensus itself
09:41Looking at the data of inflation in Indonesia
09:47Which has weakened or deflated in the last 7 months
09:53Indeed, the social consensus this week is still maintained at level 6%
09:57And there is no indication that the decrease of the Bank of Indonesia for the flower breed itself
10:03As big as 25% is not there yet
10:05And looking at the intervention of the Bank of Indonesia towards the Rupiah cross
10:09To 16,000 again, as in August last month
10:13It is still a concern for the Bank of Indonesia to decrease the flower breed
10:17So that the social consensus this week will still be maintained at level 6%
10:21Okay, then how about the projection of the decision of The Fed itself?
10:26At the meeting this week, Abdul
10:31Okay, for The Fed itself, the projection of its own consensus will be cut
10:37For The Fed itself, this is an anomaly
10:40Where if investors pay attention
10:44The US inflation is experiencing an increase
10:46When the inflation is experiencing an increase
10:48Actually, there are two possibilities for the flower breed
10:52To be sustained or increased to reduce inflation
10:57So that when the projection of analysts related to the flower breed in the United States
11:05Will be reduced to a level of 4.5% from 4.75%
11:10Which is 25%
11:12This becomes a question
11:14But the potential for The Fed to target the flower breed is reduced to a level of 4.5%
11:21Actually, there is still a possibility that there will be a protectionist policy
11:27Which was adopted by Trump in 2025
11:30This will of course support the growth of companies in the United States
11:35Then large companies that need funds or large capital
11:40To banks based on flowers
11:43This will of course be positive for the US economy
11:47When the US flower breed is reduced
11:49Okay, considering the two main concerns this week
11:52Related to the decision of the Bank of Indonesia
11:55Then also the meeting of The Fed itself
11:58What do you think is the implication of the market movement this week?
12:05Okay, for the implication of the ISG movement
12:09Indeed, when the US flower breed is reduced
12:12It becomes a positive catalyst
12:15But this US flower breed
12:18Does not have a significant impact at this time
12:21On the flower breed in Indonesia
12:24This will of course be a correlation that is not significant
12:30Related to the reduction of the US flower breed
12:33Against the movement of the ISG this week
12:36So that the movement of the ISG this week
12:38Will still be potentially burdened
12:41By the sentiment of the Indonesian flower breed
12:44Which is still maintained at 6%
12:46Until there is another announcement of PPN 12%
12:50But for luxury goods themselves
12:52This will of course be a negative catalyst
12:56For the economy in Indonesia
12:58And will have a negative impact for the ISG itself
13:01Okay, then what opportunities can be used
13:04Related to the decision of the flower breed of The Fed
13:07And also the Bank of Indonesia this time, Sabdo?
13:11Okay, the opportunities that can be used
13:13Dear investors
13:14Actually, we will still recommend Samsung Blue Chip
13:19But you guys pay attention to the Samsung Blue Chip
13:22Which is technically quite interesting
13:24For example, the telecom share
13:26Which has indeed broken out of its resistance
13:29Then there is also the BWCI share
13:31Which is still maintained at EMA200
13:33And also, dear investors, pay attention
13:35Samsung, such as INDF to XCL
13:39This is quite interesting
13:40Because the inflows that go into Samsung
13:44From the foreign itself
13:45It's quite interesting and quite massive
13:47So that the INDF-XCL share
13:50Can be one of the defensive shares this weekend
13:52For investors friends
13:54Okay, then how about Samsung's choices
13:56And what is the analysis like?
13:57We will continue in the next segment, Sabdo
13:59And stay with us, we'll be right back