This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 08/01/2025.
The cold spell continues but for how long? Slowly milder air will spread across the UK this weekend.
Bringing you this 10 day weather outlook is Alex Deakin.
The cold spell continues but for how long? Slowly milder air will spread across the UK this weekend.
Bringing you this 10 day weather outlook is Alex Deakin.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Welcome to the first 10-day trend of 2025.
00:03First 10-day trend for a few weeks, actually.
00:05And the weather's certainly very interesting
00:07in the short term.
00:08As we go into next week, things become actually
00:11a little bit more straightforward.
00:12But for that, we've got some exciting new graphics
00:15to show you, so worth staying tuned for that.
00:18In the shorter term, though,
00:19let's take a look at the bigger picture.
00:21Because as I said, there's plenty going on.
00:23The jet stream sitting across,
00:24or just to the south of the UK,
00:26this little dip generating an area of low pressure.
00:28That's bringing the snow across parts of the south
00:31at the time of recording.
00:32But we are gonna see quite a big shift.
00:34To start with, we're on the cold side of the jet stream.
00:38But over the next four or five days,
00:41what we see is the jet changes orientation,
00:44pushing down to the south, out in the Atlantic,
00:46and then way up to the north over Greenland.
00:50And that allows high pressure to build into the south
00:54and sit across much of the UK
00:57as we go into the early part of next week.
00:59And it also means we are now on the warm side of the jet.
01:02So it'll take a while, but gradually we will see
01:05those temperatures ticking up through the weekend
01:08and into the early part of next week.
01:10Good news if you're not a fan of the cold.
01:12But certainly cold is where we are at right now.
01:15A hard frost Wednesday night and into Thursday morning,
01:19temperatures well down into the lows,
01:22minus fives, minus sixes, even in towns and cities.
01:25Notice not quite so cold across the southeast,
01:27a bit more clouds in here.
01:30And so we'll see temperatures rising a little bit
01:32with the help of some winter sunshine on Thursday,
01:34but pretty rapidly on Thursday evening,
01:37that frost returns, likely to be even colder.
01:41The coldest night of the winter so far
01:43may well be the coldest night since March, 2023.
01:47As we see temperatures certainly in rural spots
01:49dipping down into minus double figures.
01:52Notice this time though,
01:53not quite as cold in the southwest.
01:55And we'll see the reason behind that in just a moment.
01:58But as I said, yes, negative double figures
02:00likely across North Wales, Northern Ireland,
02:02parts of Northern England and Scotland,
02:03where there's snow lying on the ground,
02:05could get down to minus 15 or minus 16 degrees Celsius
02:09by Friday morning.
02:11Now I mentioned those two areas
02:13that may see temperatures holding up a little higher
02:15over the next couple of nights.
02:17There's that low pressure in the south,
02:19this weather front bringing some snow
02:21across parts of the south during Wednesday afternoon
02:23and into the evening.
02:25And notice that that change in temperature,
02:27this low is bringing some milder air
02:30and it's where we see that change over.
02:32That's where we've got the weather front
02:33and it's on that edge that we've got
02:35that mixture of rain, sleet and snow.
02:37Now that clears away, we stay in the cold air for Thursday,
02:40but then another weather system comes in,
02:42another weather front again,
02:43introducing, trying to introduce milder air,
02:47but also introducing that moisture.
02:49It's where those two meets
02:51that will bring us that mixture again
02:52of rain, sleet and some hill snow.
02:55So always on the cusp as to whether we see rain, sleet
02:59or snow, the potential for a little more during Friday,
03:02across Wales and Southwest England.
03:04And of course, because it's been so cold,
03:06even if it is rain that we see,
03:07it could fall onto frozen surfaces
03:09and make things very icy indeed.
03:11So that's a watch point for Friday,
03:13some more wintry weather across Wales and Southwest England.
03:16And then this weather front likely to pivot round
03:18and potentially bring some sleet and snow
03:20as it bumps into the colder air again,
03:22Friday night and Saturday, Northern Ireland,
03:24parts of Western Scotland,
03:26and again, perhaps into parts of Wales.
03:27But again, we're not expecting huge amounts.
03:30It's just where that milder air is trying to bump in.
03:34We've got that barrier, that area of wet weather,
03:37and it's just how cold the air is as it rains into it
03:41as to whether we see much snow.
03:43But at this stage, we're not expecting huge amounts,
03:46just another place to watch as we head into the weekend.
03:50For many, the weekend though,
03:51we'll start with high pressure
03:52and the cold air still in place,
03:56and we'll continue to have those nighttime frosts.
03:58So certainly for the rest of this week, it's staying cold,
04:01continued risk of some icy patches,
04:04some sleet and snow in parts of the West
04:07that it's likely to be fairly patchy.
04:09Many Central and Eastern areas actually dry and bright,
04:11quite a bit of sunshine to be had,
04:12quite a bit of a pricity,
04:13which is where you feel the warmth of the sun
04:16on a cold winter's day.
04:18What about beyond that though,
04:20as we go into next week?
04:22We are, as I suggested at the start,
04:24likely to see a bit of a change.
04:26There's that weakening weather front,
04:28but it's bumping up against this high pressure.
04:29That high pressure is building in.
04:32Now notice by this stage,
04:33by the time we get to the weekend,
04:34the jet is now going this way.
04:37It's North-South oriented.
04:39So it's not really pushing this weather front in,
04:41and as a result,
04:42it's not really pushing that milder air in very quickly.
04:45It's going to be a slow old process
04:47for the milder air to get to Eastern parts.
04:50And this graphic, this milder air,
04:52is actually showing the 850 millibar temperature.
04:55So the temperature actually at the surface
04:56will take even longer to warm up.
04:58So yes, it will be turning milder this weekend in the West,
05:01but it'll take a while before you notice that
05:04across the East.
05:05Notice also weather fronts trying to topple
05:07into the far Northwest,
05:09eventually bringing some more wet weather here
05:11for the early part of next week.
05:13But for the main feature for much of next week
05:17will actually be this high pressure
05:18dominating across the South.
05:20That's the setup as we go into next week
05:22and likely to stick around.
05:24Just to reiterate those temperatures,
05:27these are the meteorograms for London
05:30across the Southern half of the graphic at the bottom here.
05:34And at the top, we've got Belfast.
05:36These are the box and whiskers plots
05:38for the maximum temperatures, the red ones,
05:40and the minimum temperatures, the blue ones
05:43going through time here along the bottom,
05:46this data from ECMWF.
05:48And what it shows quite nicely here
05:50is that Belfast will be warming up.
05:53The box and whiskers do get a little bigger
05:55as we go into next week,
05:56but generally they're around or above average
05:58for much of next week.
06:00What it's showing for London is,
06:02well, the smaller the box,
06:03the higher the confidence that we have.
06:06And yeah, we're pretty confident
06:07that it's going to stay cold for the next few days,
06:10but it's when that milder air gets into London,
06:13it may not be till the end of Sunday and Monday.
06:16And the box and whiskers vary broad
06:18as we go through next week.
06:20That is more of an indication
06:21about whether we see cloudier skies or sunny skies,
06:24a bit of uncertainty about that.
06:25If it stays cloudy and dull,
06:27obviously at this time, it's going to stay cold.
06:28But if we see some sunshine,
06:30temperatures could really rise up.
06:32So that's one of the uncertainties
06:34as we go through next week,
06:35but it's also showing how much slower
06:38that milder air is to get further east.
06:42Okay, so what are we talking about for next week?
06:44Well, it looks like high pressure is going to dominate.
06:46That high builds in through the weekend
06:48and then is very likely to stick around
06:49for much of next week.
06:51This is the probabilistic pressure trend.
06:53Show these all the time on the 10-day trend.
06:55There are the dates going across the top.
06:56Previous computer model runs
06:58in a really solid switch here from blue,
07:02low pressure dominating to red, high pressure dominating.
07:05So that is a pretty solid trend
07:09that as we go through next week,
07:09high pressure is likely to move in and stick around,
07:13which as you probably know,
07:14usually means plenty of dry weather.
07:17Now we can break that down a little further
07:19and take different types of flavour of high pressure.
07:23And that's what this stacked probability graph is showing.
07:28Whereas the yellow and red colours
07:30generally slow moving weather patterns or high pressure,
07:32the blues more likely low pressure.
07:36And dates now going along the bottom here
07:38showing that high pressure is likely
07:41to move in through the weekend.
07:42And this yellowy colour is high pressure
07:44sitting across central southern parts of the UK.
07:48And that's a pretty strong signal.
07:49Again, greater than 50% chance
07:51that that is the setup that we will have.
07:54Now, I'm just gonna focus in a little bit more
07:57on the colour coding at the top here.
07:59These different flavours breaking it down
08:01into eight different types of weather, if you like.
08:04But we can break it down further than that.
08:06And actually there's 30 different regimes
08:09that have been created
08:11that then pigeonhole into these different flavours,
08:14if you like.
08:15And if we just zoom in a little bit
08:16on those different colours,
08:17you can see individual numbers there.
08:19And they're the individual numbers
08:20of the 30 different types of weather
08:22that have been identified by the scientists here
08:25at the Met Office.
08:26Now, if you wanna know more about this,
08:29it's all in the deep dive from yesterday.
08:31Aidan did a deep dive with Rob,
08:33a scientist who basically came up with this plan
08:36and put it into play of breaking the weather down
08:40into these different types.
08:42And from that, with the help of Aidan
08:45and with the help of our graphic designers,
08:47we've been able to generate new graphics
08:50that are hopefully gonna make the 10-day trend
08:52even greater in the future.
08:55So from that, this is the most likely weather pattern
08:59from all the ensemble runs
09:01as we go through into next Monday.
09:04So this is the most likely pattern
09:06and it's quite a high chance,
09:07actually 75% chance that we're gonna see anti-cyclonic,
09:11which means high pressure,
09:12with a southwesterly flow generally across the UK.
09:15That's the most likely weather pattern for Monday,
09:18but it's actually the most likely weather pattern
09:20for all of next week.
09:21The percentages change over Tuesday
09:24down a bit to 60%, 67% for Wednesday.
09:27And it drops a little further
09:28as we go towards the end of next week,
09:30as you would expect.
09:31But actually still a 50% chance
09:33of this pressure pattern being in control for Thursday,
09:38slightly lower for Friday.
09:39But even that 33% chance well over a week ahead
09:42is pretty strong.
09:44Now, this isn't saying
09:45that this is what the pressure pattern
09:47will actually look like.
09:48This is just that broader envelope.
09:50This is the most likely set of something similar to this.
09:54So it won't look exactly like this,
09:55but this is when you kind of break it down
09:58into the most likely regime.
10:01This is what we are looking at
10:03to tell us the kind of pressure
10:05and likely weather setup that we're likely to have.
10:07Though we're likely to have the flow
10:08coming up from the southwest,
10:10likely to see weather fronts
10:11and wet and windy across the northwest at times,
10:13but high pressure dominating across the south.
10:15Now, from that, you can then look at historical data
10:19and what the precipitation is likely to be like,
10:22but also look at what the temperatures
10:24are likely to be like.
10:25And we've got some of that data into the machine already,
10:28and that's what this is showing.
10:29The temperature anomaly.
10:31So compared to average in this pressure setup.
10:34So when we have this pressure set up in January,
10:37what does that mean for the temperatures?
10:39Well, it generally means that northern areas
10:41are a little bit warmer than average.
10:42And with the southwesterly winds,
10:43you can see there that northern Scotland in particular
10:46could see those temperatures a little bit higher,
10:49up to three degrees above the average.
10:51Whereas for England and Wales,
10:52temperatures will be closer to average.
10:54Now that is the general climatological rule,
10:56but that's going to be kind of hiding some of the detail
11:00because if it's cloudy,
11:01if it's dull and murky at this time of year,
11:03then the temperatures will be below average.
11:05But if it's sunny,
11:06then those temperatures will of course be above average.
11:08So you're not really going to pick out
11:09that individual detail,
11:11but it's just showing that in this kind of weather setup,
11:14what the temperatures are more likely to be.
11:17And we can actually put some numbers on those as well.
11:19So say within a degree or so of average
11:21across England and Wales,
11:22milder than average and quite a bit milder than average
11:25across parts of northern Scotland.
11:27So that's what we can expect
11:28as we go through into next week.
11:31There is another scenario
11:33where high pressure remains in control,
11:35but actually is a little further east.
11:36And this is the second most likely weather setup
11:40for next week.
11:41So still high pressure close by,
11:42still a lot of dry weather around.
11:44Notice the chance of this happening is below 20%.
11:48And that would generate a bit more
11:49of an easterly breeze coming in,
11:52but still keeping things largely dry.
11:54So what can we say about the weather for next week
11:57with high pressure in control?
11:58That does mean a lot of dry weather.
12:01We are likely to see those weather fronts at times
12:02bringing wet and windy conditions
12:04across the north and the west of Scotland.
12:06May well start quite sunny early next week,
12:09particularly Monday,
12:10but we're expecting with that high pressure in control,
12:12often it gets contaminated by mist and low cloud.
12:14And that may well make for some fairly dull days
12:18as we go through next week.
12:18And as I said,
12:19that will really determine what the temperatures are
12:22by day, whether they're above or below average.
12:25That's it for this week's 10 day trend.
12:28Let us know that what you think about those new graphics.
12:31Hopefully, as I say,
12:32we'll be using them much more in the future.
12:34Let us know in the comments
12:35and please do check out that deep dive from yesterday
12:38where Aidan and Rob go through in a lot more detail
12:42about those probability charts.
12:44Thanks for watching.