This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 27/11/2024.
Whilst there will often be high pressure nearby, the weather is looking quite mobile and changeable.
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Alex Burkill.
Whilst there will often be high pressure nearby, the weather is looking quite mobile and changeable.
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Alex Burkill.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello, very good day to you. Now, I most like doing these 10-day trends when we have quite
00:05a firm idea of what the weather is going to be doing through the next 10 days or so and
00:09that's not really the case this time round. It's fair to say the weather is looking pretty
00:14changeable. Starting off looking at the bigger picture and the feature that's been named
00:18Storm Connell did bring some heavy rain, some strong winds across southern parts of the
00:23U.K. but it is going to deepen further as it heads towards the Netherlands and so that's
00:28why it's the Dutch Met Service that actually gave it a name. Behind it we have high pressure
00:33building in and with high pressure that's going to settle things down. We're going to
00:37have some clear skies as we go through the rest of Wednesday and overnight into Thursday
00:41at this time of year with clear skies and some chillier air coming in. That means we're
00:46going to see our temperatures dropping and so first thing on Thursday morning we do need
00:51to watch out for some frost, some fog and even some freezing fog patches in some places
00:56too. Some fog could linger through much of the day towards eastern parts but here it
01:00should stay largely dry. Quite chilly though, temperatures staying on the low side for the
01:04time of year. Further west we're going to have some cloudier, wetter, windier weather
01:10pushing its way in and temperatures lifting even here only just about scraping into double
01:15digits. Later on we see the heaviest rain pushing its way across parts of Scotland so
01:20a wet end to the day here. Across other western areas a bit damp, a fair bit of cloud around
01:26further east. We will see the cloud building as we go through the evening but it should
01:30stay largely dry. That's because towards the east we are still under the influence of high
01:35pressure as we go into Friday but eventually that high drifts away towards the east and
01:40so the slightly more changeable, cloudy, wet and at times windy weather will start to make
01:45its way across much of the UK as we go through Saturday. It always looks wettest and most
01:51windy towards northern and western parts but yes, some more changeable, unsettled weather
01:56pushing its way through. With that as well we are going to see our temperatures rising.
02:00It's going to be pretty mild for the time of year as we go through this weekend but
02:04like I say, fairly changeable. More changeable weather to come as we go through into Sunday,
02:08likely to see another low pressure centre pushing its way through so some wet and windy
02:12weather at times but that should push through as we go through early next week with a bit
02:16of a ridge of high pressure following in behind and so that's likely to settle things down
02:21for a short period of time but with that we are going to see some cooler air returning
02:26so temperatures dropping down again and again. That means we're likely to see some frost
02:30and fog, some freezing fog as we go through Monday night into Tuesday perhaps. Behind
02:35it more unsettled weather ready to come in, various systems waiting out in the Atlantic
02:40and I think it's this sort of theme that we're going to see more of as we go through
02:44the next 10 days in as much as yes, there will be high pressure not too far away but
02:49it could just be some transient ridges which are relatively short-lived interspersed with
02:55some more unsettled weather coming through at times as various fronts, various low pressure
02:58systems make their way across the country. We could look at that in a different way by
03:03looking at our pressure trend. If you've not seen this before and it shows the most likely
03:07pressure pattern for the next couple of weeks with reds highlighting that high pressure
03:12is generally most likely. High pressure suggests more settled conditions but it's important
03:18to look at the details. Yes, higher pressure through the next few days but if you look
03:21at the numbers as we go through the first week of December and they're fairly low so
03:26it's definitely no guarantee that high pressure really is going to be all that in charge.
03:31Low pressure is likely to also be nearby so what I'm suggesting is there aren't strong
03:37signs for a big blocking high that will last for a good chunk of time like we saw earlier
03:41on in November. Instead, it looks like it would just be some relatively short-lived
03:46periods of high pressure with some wetter windier weather perhaps at times. We can see
03:51that in a different way if we look at the zonal trend. Remember, this is the pattern
03:54as to whether our air is coming from the west or the east and at the moment it's more of
03:59an easterly direction but yes, as we go through the first week of December and the first week
04:03of meteorological winter it does look like a more westerly, more mobile pattern is likely
04:08and that goes in line with everything kind of being quite changeable with nothing lasting
04:13particularly long. I wanted to show you the confidence index because well, if you've not
04:17seen this before, this is how high the forecast confidence is compared to average and as you
04:23would expect, confidence generally drops as you look further into the future. But actually
04:26in this instance, while confidence is quite high for the next couple of days, it really
04:30drops down as we go through the first week of December. In fact, confidence for around
04:35the second or third of December is lower than the confidence in the forecast a whole wheel
04:40later, though this higher than average confidence maybe isn't as high as it suggests. We often
04:47see with high pressure on the cards that this indicates that higher than average confidence
04:53is more likely when it doesn't always come off. Anyway, back to the forecast for next
04:58week and one way of looking at things is by looking at the ECMWF most likely regimes and
05:03this is the most likely regime for next Wednesday and it goes with the idea of higher pressure
05:09somewhere towards the east or the south of the UK and lower pressure towards the north
05:13northwest. But where this boundary between the low pressure and the high pressure actually
05:18is, is where there's quite a bit of uncertainty and that really then will dictate how much
05:24we see the rain and where we see the wet and windy weather pushing through. If we look
05:28at the second most likely and it has the high pressure much further towards the west, also
05:33towards the north a little bit more and more dominant over the UK and so actually on Wednesday
05:37it looks largely dry compared to the much wetter story when we look at the most likely
05:42regime. And if we look at the third most likely regime, well, it's somewhere in between. So,
05:47wetter windier weather towards the northwest, higher pressure towards the southeast and
05:50that's kind of the pattern we can expect really through March and next week. But at times
05:54this unsettled weather will push through. So, most places or pretty much everywhere
05:58will see some rain at times. If we look at this in a different way and if we look at
06:03the ECMWF postage stamps, so these show the various different model runs and all the different
06:09possibilities for what could happen on next Thursday and it's quite difficult to look
06:12at the details in these, but they're showing that the positions of any lows and highs,
06:16well, they're really quite uncertain at this stage. There are some lows and highs around
06:21that we can be pretty certain on, but exactly where and when they're going to come through,
06:25that's where the difficulty lies. If we take one example, if we look at member 10 and actually
06:30this one shows quite a deep area of low pressure coming through next Thursday. This is just
06:35one possible outcome, so we don't need to take it too seriously at this stage. But if
06:39this came off, we could have some stormy weather, albeit worth noting that the majority
06:43of the members want something much less severe than that. If we then dart ahead a day and
06:48look at Friday and this time looking at member 11, a very different story. This has high
06:54pressure building back in from the east and pushing across the UK. And if this came off,
06:59then this could actually last for quite a while and we could have a relatively prolonged
07:03period of more settled weather. But again, this is just one member and most of them paint
07:09a slightly different story with just a changeable pattern with various things moving through
07:13at times. So I think it's fair to say, yes, I think I've said changeable enough times
07:18in this forecast that we can be pretty certain on just how unsettled it's going to be. That's
07:24where the confidence isn't quite there and when we're going to see the wet and windy
07:28weather pushing through. But temperature wise, I'm a little bit more confident as we go through
07:32at least into the beginning of next week. I already talked about a chilly bit for the
07:36next day or so, but then temperatures picking up as we go through this coming weekend.
07:42Here are the meteorograms from ECMWF for our capital cities and they all paint a similar
07:47profile as much as those temperatures then pick up, dropping down again early next week
07:51and then thereafter as we go through the first week or so of December, it's likely that temperatures
07:56will be pretty near climatological average, perhaps a little bit above, but worth noting
08:01there's a fair amount of spread in those temperatures. It's pretty much just climatological
08:06spread. So thanks for watching. I do hope I gave you some information as to what we
08:11can expect through the next 10 days. Obviously, details will firm up as we get nearer the
08:16time, so make sure you don't miss an update. Bye bye.