This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 06/11/2024.
High pressure has been in control of our weather for the whole of November, how long can it continue?
Bringing you this 10 day trend forecast is Alex Deakin.
High pressure has been in control of our weather for the whole of November, how long can it continue?
Bringing you this 10 day trend forecast is Alex Deakin.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Welcome to your 10-day trend where the pressure remains pretty high and as a
00:05result the weather will remain largely dry. But the position and shape of the
00:10high pressure will kind of dictate what flavor weather we have over the next
00:14week or so. As we record, well the big picture looks like this with the jet
00:19stream high in the sky driving well to the north of the UK arching over us and
00:25across much of northern Europe allowing a big area of high pressure to dominate
00:29across most of mainland Europe. Actually over the next couple of days we'll start
00:34to see another center of the high develop just to the east of the UK and
00:38keeping the weather fronts at bay and that means it'll stay largely dry with
00:43the high sitting here the winds going clockwise around high pressure the air
00:47continues to waft up from the south so relatively mild air relatively moist air
00:53and trapped under the high pressure as you'll have noticed there is an awful
00:57lot of clouds so we're not going to see a great deal of change for the next
01:00couple of days it stays pretty drab most places dry the cloud thick enough here
01:05and there particularly over hills and coast for a little bit of drizzle but equally with a
01:09southerly wind it's areas to the north of hills that tend to have the drier
01:14conditions and the brighter weather. Northern Scotland poking out into some
01:19sunshine for the next couple of days Thursday and Friday as well and as a
01:24result it'll be warmest here too. These are the temperatures compared to the
01:28average for the middle of November most places around or a little bit above
01:32something a bit milder further west and the highest temperatures with the
01:36brightest skies across northern Scotland helped by something called the fern
01:39effect the winds bouncing over the mountains drier air to the lee of the
01:44mountains and warmer conditions here as well. For more on the fern effect you can
01:48check out Aidan's deep dive from Tuesday lots of information in there about it.
01:54Okay what about the future into the weekend well we still have high pressure
01:59sitting to the east of us and the jet stream pushing way up to the north but
02:04out in the Atlantic things are changing the jet stream is coming more east to
02:09west and it is trying to shunt some weather fronts towards us the first
02:13couple will kind of just fizzle out bringing a bit more cloud and a few
02:17spots of rain into the west but the jet stream does look likely to pick up this
02:21area of low pressure but instead of whizzing it across the UK it's gonna
02:25nudge it up to the north this weather front though will bring perhaps a little
02:29bit more in the way of rain as it crosses the country during the second
02:32half of the weekend so the isobars closing together as well so it will get
02:35a little windier across northern Scotland also but that weather fronts
02:39won't produce a huge amount of rain and certainly the ones before that will
02:44produce very little in the way of rain this is the projected six hourly
02:50rainfall totals for Friday into Monday and you can see most of the UK as we run
02:55through the time will stay dry a bit of drizzle here and there over the hills
02:58across the south and we'll see some pockets of light rain in the west as
03:02those first weather fronts trickle in during Saturday a little bit more as
03:05that weather front does move in across Scotland during Sunday but again as it
03:10pushes south not a huge amount of rain so for many the next five or six days
03:15will remain dry just as I say a little bit of drizzle here and there over the
03:20hills and also staying pretty mild these are the temperatures compared to average
03:24for Saturday many places around maybe a degree or so above average Western areas
03:29a little bit warmer than the mid-November average and Sunday well
03:34many more places will be above average so quite warm on Sunday particularly if
03:39we do see any brighter skies now the maxima on Sunday probably quite early on
03:44across parts of the north because that weather front will be moving in during
03:48Sunday it will introduce slightly cooler conditions for a time across the
03:53northern half of the UK but then look at this the high pressure builds back in
03:58through Sunday and into a Monday and this high will then dominate our weather
04:03for the early part of next week and warmer air wafting back further north at
04:07least for the early part of the week so temperatures are going to be above
04:10average through the weekend particularly so on Sunday and Sunday
04:14night and for the start of next week almost back to square one with high
04:19pressure dominating the jet stream pushing up to the north arching over the
04:24UK taking the weather systems and the weather fronts with it up towards
04:29Iceland now I say we're almost back to square one but now the high instead of
04:33sitting to the east of us is sitting much more across the UK so the winds are
04:39going to be fairly light particularly so in the south and this high pressure
04:42looks quite a lot cleaner as we say in meteorological terms so that means it's
04:48there's not as much moisture in it so there won't be as much cloud so a much
04:52better chance as that high builds in for the early part of next week of actually
04:56seeing some blue sky rather than grey sky so some sunshine likely early next
05:01week particularly so on Monday a fresher feel at least temporarily and that will
05:07probably be because at night without any cloud obviously the nights will be
05:10quite a lot colder the night's going to be very mild for the next few nights but
05:14early part of next week with that cleaner high not as much cloud around
05:19the nights will be turning colder so a greater chance of some night frosts and
05:23of course some fog patches as well so that's the early part of next week this
05:28chart suggesting that high pressure will continue to dominate throughout next
05:33week this is the multi-model probabilistic pressure trends many
05:38models when we use the ensembles and look at all of the different projected
05:42outcomes the red suggesting high pressure blue is low pressure but
05:47there's not a lot of that on the chart very red indeed these are the previous
05:50computer model runs there the dates going forward you can see solid red
05:54throughout next week before turning a little pink here towards the following
05:59weekend but that was just high pressure is going to dominate close to the UK
06:04throughout next week but as we've already seen the position of the high is
06:09crucial for the for the type of weather we see sitting to the east of us it's
06:13generated a lot of cloud sitting over us it should at least temporarily bring
06:16some sunnier skies through the early part of next week but we can dig a
06:21little deeper and look at the potential regimes within the pressure pattern and
06:28we've got eight different flavors here a different types of weather indicated
06:32the dates and they're going forward along the bottom here and the different
06:36colored bars representing eight different flavors with the orange in the
06:39reds more high pressure the blues more low pressure and this one this kind of
06:45mid orange color dominating for Sunday and Monday that's when the high pressure
06:50is sitting right over the UK likely to last into Tuesday as well but as we go
06:55through next week that diminishes the probability of that weather flavor if
07:00you like and this darker ready orange becomes more dominant actually more red
07:05isn't it by the end of the week now that's not actually suggesting high
07:09pressure is definitely going to dominate it's suggesting that the weather
07:12patterns are becoming more stagnant a negative NAO which means the weather
07:16patterns are a slow moving so that could mean that lower pressure is sitting over
07:21the UK what's most likely to happen towards the back end of next week is
07:25that the high pressure will still be close by and still mostly controlling
07:30our weather but instead of sitting to the east as it is this week or over the
07:34UK for the weekend early part of next week back end of next week the most
07:37likely scenario is that high pressure actually is building out to the west and
07:41because the winds go around high pressure clockwise if it's sitting here
07:46it means the winds are more likely to be coming in from the north and particularly
07:49if we do generate an area of low pressure sitting out to the east this is
07:53the European model projection for next Thursday just the deterministic model
07:59but most of the models are in agreement that something like this setup will
08:03occur slightly cooler air then pushing in in this setup and by the time it's a
08:09Friday that high is still dominating but sitting out here and the low pressure is
08:14getting a little closer suggesting the winds could even start to come in more
08:18from the east or even the northeast it's not especially cold air but it is cooler
08:23and fresher air and of course at this time of year that's going to feel pretty
08:27chilly with the winds coming in from the North Sea so there are strong signals
08:31that it will turn a little cooler as we go through next week as these box and
08:36whiskers plots suggest this these are generated using the ensembles where you
08:42run the computer model many times this is the European model run and this
08:47bottom plot showing the temperatures for London the top one for Belfast the
08:52maximum temperatures and how they compare to average and you can see here
08:56on the Belfast plot we're going to see those higher temperatures in the west
09:00Sunday quite a bit above average here before they do drop off as we go through
09:05it next week and it's a similar story less exaggerated for London closer to
09:10average but still probably warmer than average for Saturday and Sunday before
09:15that general dip as we go through it next week the box and whiskers do get
09:19larger as we go through the back end of next week suggesting more uncertainty
09:23but that's fairly typical you can see that pattern in there they are both
09:27suggesting that things will get cooler as we go through it next week so high
09:31pressure still in control but instead of the cloudy conditions this week early
09:36part of next week does look as if we should see some sunshine before things
09:40turn a little colder and perhaps a little wetter as we go towards the back
09:44end of next week the back end of this week offer something very exciting
09:49indeed because it's the return of the weather studio live that's only going to
09:54be available on YouTube so make sure you hit subscribe the weather studio live
09:59will feature presenters talking through the weekend weather but we also want
10:03your interaction as well as if you watch it live you can ask us a question
10:08anything you want to know about the weather so don't miss that
10:11that's this Friday the 8th of November the return of the weather studio live
10:15at 1215